Group 1 - The overall macroeconomic environment last week was neutral to slightly positive, with Trump initially pressuring Powell and rumors of his potential dismissal, which led to a temporary rebound in copper prices before being denied by Trump [1][3] - Inflation data met expectations, reflecting the impact of tariffs on inflation, which caused the market to reduce expectations for interest rate cuts later this year, putting pressure on prices [1][3] - Gold prices showed a strong performance, supported by market resilience and expectations of potential interest rate cuts, despite ongoing tariff risks [4][50] Group 2 - Last week, COMEX gold fell by 0.44% and silver by 1.66%, while SHFE gold and silver rose by 0.45% and 2.58% respectively [2] - The copper market saw a slight rebound, with SHFE copper prices returning above 79,000 yuan/ton, driven by positive sentiment from urban renewal meetings and expectations of further measures against "involution" [6][49] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was -43.20 USD/ton, showing a slight increase, with the market remaining relatively stable [8] Group 3 - The COMEX copper price curve shifted upward, maintaining a contango structure, while COMEX copper inventories exceeded 240,000 tons, indicating potential for further accumulation [6] - The domestic market for electrolytic copper saw a slight increase in inventory, with total stocks at 144,400 tons, reflecting limited demand from downstream processing enterprises [14] - The processing fees for 8mm refined copper rods increased, particularly in East China, although overall demand remains limited due to seasonal factors [16] Group 4 - The gold and silver prices fluctuated at high levels, with COMEX gold trading between 3,314 and 3,389 USD/oz, and silver between 37.6 and 39.6 USD/oz [19] - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 445,000 ounces to 37.19 million ounces, while silver inventory rose by about 232,000 ounces to 49.724 million ounces [35] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 tons to 944 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings fell by 100 tons to 14,658 tons, indicating a shift in market sentiment [40]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 21 日 铜：情绪良好，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,440 | 0.76% | 79040 | 0.76% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,795 | 1.20% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 54,825 | 19,103 | 141,769 | 3,763 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 15,349 | 4,066 | 267,000 | -1,603 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 38,239 | -3,900 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 122,175 | 25 | 11.52% | 2.35% | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Suspended 2. Core View of the Report This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the widening of the spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in the copper price in non - US markets. As a result, the domestic copper price was temporarily suppressed, and the domestic social inventory increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for now [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 77,810 yuan/ton and closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, a - 0.18% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,800 yuan/ton and closed at 77,620 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 60 - 150 yuan/ton to the current 2508 contract, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 77,950 - 78,090 yuan/ton. The intraday trading weakened, and the spot premium may further decline today [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: Fed Governor Kugler said the Fed should not cut interest rates "for some time" due to the impact of Trump's tariffs on consumer prices. The US unemployment rate is 4.1%, and inflation is above the 2% target [3]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.1% [3]. - **Mine End**: In the second quarter of 2025, Rio Tinto's copper production reached 229,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 9% quarter - on - quarter increase. The company maintained its annual production target of 780,000 - 850,000 tons [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: In the second quarter, 29Metals' Golden Grove project in Western Australia produced 5,600 tons of copper, lower than the previous year. China's refined copper production in June 2025 was 1.302 million tons, a 14.2% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Consumption**: China's copper product output in June 2025 was 2.214 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 10,525 tons to 122,150 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 8,103 tons to 42,139 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 143,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Table of Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium and Discount)**: The premium of SMM 1 copper on July 18, 2025, was 105, with changes compared to the previous day, week, and month [26]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 122,150 tons, SHFE inventory was 81,462 tons, and COMEX inventory was 217,212 tons on July 18, 2025 [27]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 42,139 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 10.19% on July 18, 2025 [28]. - **Arbitrage**: The import profit was - 2 on July 18, 2025, and there were also data on other arbitrage indicators [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Chilean Minister of Mining will hold a meeting with the copper industry next Tuesday to discuss issues related to U.S. tariffs [1] Group 1 - The meeting aims to address the impact of U.S. tariffs on the copper sector [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides trading strategies based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each metal [2][8][17]. - For each metal, the analysis includes market review (both futures and spot markets), relevant news, logical analysis of market movements, and corresponding trading strategies [2][8][17]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, with SHFE copper index reducing positions by 1,809 lots to 497,000 lots. In the spot market, copper prices declined in East, South, and North China, with different trends in spot premiums [2]. - **Important News**: Rumors of Powell's dismissal caused market volatility. In May 2025, global refined copper supply had a surplus of 84,200 tons. Peru lifted a two - week blockade on a major copper transport route. Antofagasta's copper production increased 11% year - on - year in H1 2025 [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff is due on August 1st. LME copper inventory is increasing. The domestic smelter output will remain high in July and August. Market purchasing is mainly for immediate needs and in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range [14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3,089 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 14,701 lots to 407,500 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - **Important News**: National unified market construction was emphasized. There were spot transactions in different regions. Alumina inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 3.188 million tons this week [9][10]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production capacity is stable, but output is rising. The supply - demand pattern will shift from tight balance to structural surplus in July. The import window around 3,200 yuan is the upper pressure for price rebound [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range. For now, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 25 yuan to 20,455 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 5,825 lots to 633,800 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. There were rumors about Powell's dismissal. The decline in housing completion area in June narrowed [17][18]. - **Logical Analysis**: Macro - events may cause overseas aluminum price fluctuations. Fundamentals have negative feedback. Aluminum consumption in the off - season may not be too weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19,845 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 106 lots to 9,969 lots. Spot prices were stable [23]. - **Important News**: In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to May, with a theoretical loss of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply is stable, but demand is weak. Aluminum alloy futures prices will mainly follow the cost and aluminum price trends [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure at high levels. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc 2509 rose 0.55% to 22,120 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE zinc index decreasing by 8,334 lots to 223,300 lots. Spot market transactions were mainly for immediate needs, with weak premiums [28]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 93,500 tons. Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal production in Q2 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: Domestic zinc supply is increasing, and consumption is in the off - season, with inventory piling up. Zinc prices may be under pressure [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to macro - sentiment and capital - side influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Long - term, short positions can be taken on price rebounds. Buy put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: SHFE lead 2508 fell 0.3% to 16,875 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE lead index increasing by 3,476 lots to 100,000 lots. Spot market transactions were not optimistic [33]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 69,000 tons. Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [34]. - **Logical Analysis**: Secondary lead production is in the red, and domestic primary lead smelting has maintenance in July. The lead - battery peak season is approaching, with improving consumption [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try long positions with a small position considering secondary lead cost support and peak - season expectations. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main SHFE nickel contract NI2509 fell 740 yuan to 119,970 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 4,627 lots. Spot premiums showed different trends [40]. - **Important News**: In May 2025, global nickel supply had a surplus of 40,800 tons. From January to May 2025, the surplus was 165,300 tons. Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns about US tariffs resurfaced. Refined nickel supply and demand are weak in the off - season, with stable and slightly increasing inventory. Prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will decline with fluctuations. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [43][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract rose 40 yuan to 12,730 yuan/ton, with index positions decreasing by 776 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48]. - **Important News**: A nickel - iron factory in East China sold nickel - iron. National stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [49]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless - steel demand is not optimistic, with high inventory pressure. The cost has increased, and prices will oscillate at a high level [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level. Wait and see for arbitrage [51][52]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices were stable [54][55]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon and its derivatives [56][58]. - **Logical Analysis**: Leading manufacturers' production decreased by 20,000 tons in July. If leading manufacturers do not resume production, the supply - demand will be balanced. Prices may be strong in the short - term [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - term long - bias view. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage strategy. There is no option strategy [60]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract rose 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A photovoltaic project's component procurement bid was announced [62]. - **Logical Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be transmitted downstream. Market sentiment is positive, and prices may be strong in the short - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will be strong in the short - term [65]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,640 yuan to 67,960 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 17,801 lots and Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) warehouse receipts decreasing by 416 to 10,239 tons. Spot prices were stable [66]. - **Important News**: Three Australian lithium mines have shut down. Zangge Mining's lithium - related subsidiary stopped production [67]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. Demand in July is not weak. Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may decline in Q4 [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Options: Suspended [8] Core View of the Report - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the widening of the spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in copper prices in non - US markets. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and social inventories have increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, a - 0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,960 yuan/ton and closed at 78,070 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a premium of 90 - 180 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a 155 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. As it was the last trading day of the 2507 contract, the market mainly quoted for the 2508 contract. After entering the 2508 contract, it is expected that the initial quote will maintain a 150 - yuan/ton premium, but the spot premium may quickly decline due to low inventory costs and weak demand [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In the US, the overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%. Interest rate futures show that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this month is small, but there is a high possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September. The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods. China's economy grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year, and 5.2% in the second quarter [3] - **Mine End**: On July 14, Tyranna Resources signed an agreement to acquire a 70% stake in the Maongo copper - gold project in Angola, which is expected to get approval in the third quarter [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In June 2025, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.95 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. The cumulative output from January to June was 40.32 million tons, a 2.9% cumulative year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export in China" [4] - **Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rebounded to 67%, but was still 4.56 percentage points lower than expected. The operating rate of the copper cable industry reached 71.52%. It is expected that the operating rate of copper rod enterprises will rise to 74.57% next week, and the operating rate of the copper cable industry will fall to 70.57% [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 850 tons to 110,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 15,754 tons to 50,133 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,600 tons, a change of 3,900 tons from the previous week [6][7] Table Data - The table shows copper price and basis data from July 16, 2025, including spot premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability [29][30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that copper prices are expected to decline slightly due to changes in inventory dynamics and tariff impacts [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - High copper prices in June were primarily driven by low inventory levels at exchanges, creating a soft squeeze in the market [1] - The implementation of the US 232 copper tariff in July has led to a decrease in inventory transportation demand, alleviating inventory pressures in non-US regions [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - CICC forecasts a slight decline in copper prices moving forward as the market adjusts to the new inventory and tariff conditions [1]

智利国家铜业委员会：智利委员会不知晓美国关税细节。 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have increased by 12% since last Tuesday, while copper inventories have decreased by 1.5% [1] - The U.S. relies on imports for half of its refined copper, with 90% coming from other regions in the Americas, primarily Chile [1] - Trump's proposed 50% tariff on copper imports aims to boost domestic copper supply and reduce reliance on foreign sources [1][2] Group 2 - Following the tariff announcement, U.S. copper prices surged by 15%, while prices in the UK and China actually declined [2] - The expectation of the tariff has led companies to build inventory to avoid future costs associated with the tariff [2] - The response of copper supply to these tariffs is expected to be slower compared to gold, indicating different fundamental factors will drive copper prices in the coming months [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., focusing on its operations in the copper mining and smelting industry, particularly the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Mirador Copper Mine Production**: The first phase of the Mirador copper mine has an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons, with the second phase expected to commence in July 2025, bringing total capacity to 260,000 tons. The mine's cost is within the top 30% globally, enhancing the company's profitability [2][4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The company has a gross smelting capacity of 2.2 million tons, benefiting from low transportation costs along the Yangtze River and sales of by-products like sulfuric acid. The net profit margin has remained stable between 2.2% and 2.5% over the past decade, with a conservative estimate of 700 RMB profit per ton [2][4][7]. - **Market Valuation**: Currently, the market capitalization of Tongling Nonferrous is approximately 44 billion RMB, significantly undervalued compared to an estimated 60 billion RMB based on steady-state profits of 6.7 billion RMB and an industry average P/E ratio of 9 [2][5][6]. - **Risk Mitigation**: Despite negative spot processing fees, over 90% of the company's procurement is through long-term contracts, which mitigates the risk of losses. Additional revenue from by-products like sulfuric acid and precious metals further supports overall profitability [2][7]. - **Contribution of Mirador Mine**: The Mirador mine has reserves exceeding 6 million tons with a grade of 0.48%, and actual output grade reaching 0.6%. In the first five months of the year, the mine achieved a net profit of 24,000 RMB per ton, making it a significant profit driver for the company [2][8][14]. - **Future Growth Potential**: The company's growth potential lies in the expansion of the Mirador mine and the addition of 500,000 tons of smelting capacity. However, there is a short-term risk of reduced profits due to income tax recognition, which could present a buying opportunity [2][9][10]. - **Community Integration**: The Mirador mine is noted for its deep integration with the local community, ensuring that at least 52% of the profits remain local, which stabilizes operations and aligns interests with local governments [3][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Comparison with Other Mines**: Other Chinese-operated large copper mines in South America, such as Las Bambas and Toromocho, have faced operational challenges, while Mirador has maintained stability due to its community engagement strategy [13]. - **Profit Forecasts**: For the first five months of the year, the net profit of the Mirador mine's operating entity reached 170 million USD, with a net profit margin of 29%. Once the second phase is fully operational, annual profits could reach 6.4 billion RMB, although tax implications may reduce the net profit to approximately 952 million RMB in 2025 [14].