1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report industry investment ratings: Not provided - Core view: The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and relevant news events [4][7][12] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,800 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased positions by 5,047 lots to 556,300 lots [2] - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper rebounded to 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Guangdong inventory increased for 5 consecutive days, and the consumption was poor, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The North China spot market remained sluggish, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - Freeport McMoRan plans to exit the benchmark pricing system for global copper ore sales to protect smelter profitability due to the historically low benchmark TC/RC fees in 2025 [3] Logic Analysis - Macro: The US employment market cooled, and Powell hinted at a possible rate cut and an end to balance - sheet reduction. Fundamentals: Multiple mines reduced production, and the supply of copper mines tightened. The consumption was weak, but the purchase demand might increase after price corrections [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a "buy on dips" strategy and be cautious about chasing high prices. - Arbitrage: Hold inter - market positive spreads and arrange inter - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. - Options: Wait and see [7] Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 2,797 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [9] Relevant Information - Some aluminum plants made procurement, and the production of some alumina enterprises was affected by factors such as ore shortage and strikes [10][11] Logic Analysis - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream stockpiling, but the surplus trend remained. The price was expected to be volatile and weak before the supply - demand pattern improved [12] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [15][16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 20 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and Powell's speech on the economy and monetary policy, and the export and inventory data of electrolytic aluminum [18] Trading Logic - The impact of the US tariff policy upgrade on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The medium - term upward trend of aluminum prices remained unchanged, and the consumption showed resilience [19] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not change the medium - term upward trend. Wait and see in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions were mostly stable [21] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and the inventory data of recycled aluminum alloy ingots [21] Trading Logic - The impact of the tariff policy upgrade on aluminum - based products was expected to be less severe. The global aluminum supply - demand remained in a shortage pattern after re - balancing, and the fundamentals provided some support [23] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not affect the medium - term upward trend. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [24] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 1.17% to 22,015 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index increased by 675 lots to 210,700 lots. - Spot: The trading volume did not improve significantly [26] Relevant Information - The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of refined zinc [28] Logic Analysis - The supply in China increased significantly, while the consumption did not improve. The price of LME zinc was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [28] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may fluctuate more violently. Short positions can be arranged at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27][31] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 0.15% to 17,110 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 886 lots to 84,500 lots. - Spot: The downstream demand was for rigid replenishment, and the trading was average [30] Relevant Information - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of lead [31] Logic Analysis - The current supply - demand of lead was weak, but the supply was weaker. The price was expected to be strong in the short term, but there was a risk of a decline in the future [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may decline from high levels. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 increased by 100 to 121,180 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 5,896 lots. - Spot: The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36] Relevant Information - A fire occurred in an Indonesian nickel processing plant, and the Indonesian nickel - iron market was under pressure [37] Logic Analysis - The fire had no impact on production. The supply - demand of refined nickel was basically flat, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The nickel price was under pressure [37] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [38][39][41] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 30 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 174 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [43] Important Information - Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on stainless steel cold - rolled products from Vietnam [44] Logic Analysis - The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the demand was restricted. The price was under pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [44] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [45][46] Group 10: Tin Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, decreased by 430 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and the position increased by 632 lots to 65,742 lots. - Spot: The spot price decreased, and the trading was average [48] Relevant Information - The global semiconductor sales increased, and the production of domestic tin smelters changed [49][50] Logic Analysis - The Fed hinted at a rate cut, the supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption [52] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production. - Options: Wait and see [53][54] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Important Information - A South Korean company will acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [55] Logic Analysis - The production of industrial silicon was affected by power plant maintenance and factory shutdowns. The demand was strong in the short term, but there might be a slight surplus in November. The price was expected to be range - bound [57] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Avoid long positions. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: None [58][59][60] Group 12: Polysilicon Important Information - The magazine emphasized the importance of stabilizing market expectations and introducing favorable policies [62] Logic Analysis - The production of polysilicon increased in October, but the demand weakened. The price was expected to break through new highs in the medium - to - long term, and long positions could be held in the short term [63] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Hold long positions. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3500, - 3300). - Options: Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, stop - profit and exit the put option, and continue to hold the call option [64][65][66] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 220 to 72,940 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,780 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2,104 to 33,076 tons. - Spot: The spot prices remained unchanged [69] Important Information - Tesla's factory increased production, and China's new - energy vehicle sales increased [70] Logic Analysis - The supply of lithium carbonate was uncertain, and the demand was strong. The price was expected to be strong and volatile in the current range [71] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Treat the price as strong and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [72]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the daily performance of various non - ferrous metals on October 14, 2025, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with analysis of market trends, relevant information, trading logic, and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Review Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.47%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 14,799 lots to 551,300 lots. The spot market showed different trends in different regions [2]. Alumina - The Alumina 2601 contract fell 20 yuan to 2,805 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a general downward trend [10]. Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract remained unchanged at 20,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2511 fell 0.29% to 22,220 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced its position by 2,545 lots to 210,000 lots. The spot market had high - price quotes but poor trading volume [30]. Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2511 fell 0.61% to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased its position by 874 lots to 83,600 lots. The spot price of lead decreased [35]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell 820 to 120,830 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 10,910 lots. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [41]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 120 to 12,565 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,815 lots. The spot market prices were stable [49]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 280,430 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan/ton or 1.10%, and the position decreased by 1,121 lots to 65,110 lots. The spot price decreased [56]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell. Spot prices of different grades and downstream product prices showed different trends [88]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon fell. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related photovoltaic product prices changed [89]. Lithium Carbonate - The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract rose 240 to 72,760 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 16,830 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. Group 3: Relevant Information Copper - Grasberg has been shut down for nearly a month due to an accident, and its copper concentrate supply may only last until the end of this month. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper production increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter [3]. Alumina - There were multiple spot transactions in different regions. The national alumina production capacity and operation situation were reported, and the production of an enterprise in Shanxi was affected by ore shortages [11]. Aluminum - Trump planned to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1. China implemented export controls on rare - earth items. China's aluminum exports in September 2025 and the cumulative exports from January to September decreased year - on - year [18]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory increased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global refined zinc supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [31]. Lead - The domestic lead inventory decreased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global lead supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [36]. Nickel - A copper - nickel ore exploration right in Gansu was put up for auction. The LME planned to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal trading [42]. Stainless Steel - The EU planned to implement a trade policy on stainless steel, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese cold - rolled stainless steel [50]. Tin - A Fed official supported two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. Peru's tin exports in August and Indonesia's tin exports in September were reported [57]. Industrial Silicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [61]. Polysilicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The polysilicon production and demand situation in October was reported [68]. Lithium Carbonate - A company in Qinghai resumed lithium resource development. BYD's battery installation volume in September 2025 increased year - on - year. A company responded to the battery export control policy. CATL refuted rumors about solid - state battery production [76]. Group 4: Trading Logic Copper - Trump's tariff statement and subsequent easing signals affected the market. The supply of copper mines was tight, and the consumption showed a weakening trend [4]. Alumina - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream inventory, but the surplus trend remained. The profit of alumina factories was affected, and the production dynamics needed attention [13]. Aluminum - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The global aluminum supply - demand balance was not significantly affected [20]. Zinc - The domestic zinc supply increased, and the consumption was weak. The overseas market was strong, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [32]. Lead - The current lead supply - demand was weak, but the supply was weaker. The lead price was expected to rise and then fall due to the expected increase in supply in the second half of October [38]. Nickel - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic nickel enterprises had high export enthusiasm. The nickel price was in a shock range, and the Sino - US situation needed attention [43]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel production in October increased, but the demand was restricted. The social inventory increased slightly, and the price was under pressure [51]. Tin - The market was waiting for the development of Trump's tariff threat. The supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering [58]. Industrial Silicon - The production in Xinjiang was affected, and the production in the southwest was expected to decrease in November. The demand was strong in the short term, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the medium term [63]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production increased in October, and the demand was weak. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November was the core driving factor for the price adjustment [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading volume of lithium carbonate was low, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the current range. The Sino - US situation needed attention [76]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short - term consolidation was needed, and a long - at - low strategy was recommended. Arbitrage: Hold the inter - market positive arbitrage and arrange the inter - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: The price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [16]. Aluminum - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend remained after the short - term panic - driven decline. Wait and see in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [21]. Zinc - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opening of the export window and arrange short positions at high prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [33]. Lead - Unilateral: The lead price was expected to rise due to inventory reduction but may fall due to increased supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - Unilateral: Maintain a wide - range shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [45]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: The price was expected to decline in a shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see [52]. Tin - Unilateral: Short - term high - level shock, pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Buy at the lower end of the range and hold previous long positions. Arbitrage: None. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Try long positions near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Arbitrage: Hold the reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Options: Adjust the previous double - buy strategy, stop profit on the put option and hold the call option [70]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - After the National Day holiday, the short - term price of alumina is expected to be weak, with the main contract operating in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The focus of the game in the fourth quarter is the production cut intensity of enterprises after profit decline. [1] - The price of aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton. [3] Zinc - The price of LME zinc remained strong during the National Day holiday. The domestic supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The performance of SHFE zinc will continue to be under pressure. [5] Copper - During the National Day holiday, the overseas copper price continued to rise. The weak US dollar and supply shortage are the important drivers. In the medium - and long - term, the supply shortage of copper ore will solidly support the bottom of the copper price, and the main support is at 84000 - 85000. [7] Tin - The tin price is expected to continue the strong shock. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in "Golden September and Silver October" and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. [9] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main operating range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. [13] Nickel - The nickel disk is expected to maintain a range - bound shock, with the main reference range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. [14] Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20720 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20 yuan/ton. [1] - The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1687 yuan/ton, down 49.4 from the previous value; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.77, down 0.01 from the previous value. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. [1] - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum is 59.20 million tons, down 7.21% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 50.6 million tons, up 0.21% day - on - day. [1] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and related products remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price difference of some aluminum products increased. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. [3] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 5.57 million tons, up 0.72% week - on - week. [3] Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21830 yuan/ton, up 0.92% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 4225 yuan/ton, down 796.03 from the previous value. [5] Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc output was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month. [5] - The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven places is 14.14 million tons, down 9.94% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 3.8 million tons, up 0.13% day - on - day. [5] Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 83240 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference is 3149 yuan/ton, up 13.65% from the previous value. [7] Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper output was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. [7] - The domestic social inventory of copper is 14.83 million tons, up 2.63% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 14.34 million tons, down 0.35% day - on - day. [7] Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin is 277200 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 19477.39 yuan/ton, down 22.88% from the previous value. [9] Fundamental Data - In August, the tin ore import volume was 10267 tons, down 0.11% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous value. [9] - The SHEF inventory of tin is 6559.0 tons, down 1.98% week - on - week; the social inventory is 7890.0 tons, down 6.66% week - on - week. [9] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. [11] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. [11] - The total inventory of lithium carbonate in August was 94177 tons, down 3.75% month - on - month. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference increased by 6.52%. [13] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month. [13] - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 47.74 million tons, up 1.13% week - on - week; the SHFE warehouse receipt is 8.70 million tons, down 0.21% day - on - day. [13] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous value; the futures import profit and loss is - 1076 yuan/ton, up 471 from the previous value. [14] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products is 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel is 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month. [14] - The SHFE inventory is 29834 tons, up 8.49% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 231312 tons, up 0.52% day - on - day. [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals market is expected to see an early start, with strong orders in October and sustained downstream demand despite price pressures. Supply disruptions from Congo and Zijin Mining are anticipated to last over a year, supporting metal prices [1][2][4]. Copper Market Insights - The copper supply-demand balance is shifting, with significant production cuts at Grasberg mine expected to lead to a shortage by Q4 2025. A reduction of over 400,000 tons in 2026 is projected, alongside low inventory levels, suggesting copper prices could stabilize above $10,000 per ton in Q4 2025 and potentially reach $12,000 per ton in 2026 [1][2][3]. - Current high inventory levels indicate strong demand, with September and October orders being robust. Supply-side disruptions are expected to continue, reinforcing the bullish outlook for copper [2][3]. Aluminum Market Dynamics - The aluminum sector shows strong demand, particularly in Q4, with stable orders from key downstream enterprises. The global supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is expected to lag behind demand growth, leading to a potential shortage and a forecasted price surge to over 23,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][7][8]. - Despite an increase in overall inventory, the production of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, indicating a positive short-term outlook for aluminum prices [7][8]. Silver and Other Precious Metals - Silver is highlighted as a significant investment opportunity, with expectations of price increases following the end of the interest rate hike cycle. The anticipated rise in copper prices may also catalyze an earlier increase in silver prices, positioning silver for strong performance among metals [1][4][5][6]. - Gold prices are projected to experience long-term upward trends, with a trading range expected to shift to $3,500-$3,600 by mid-2025, driven by declining trust in mainstream currencies and increased central bank allocations to gold [10][11][12]. Strategic Investment Opportunities - The recent policy guidance from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the improvement of the non-ferrous metals industry environment, which could enhance corporate profitability. Companies with advanced technology and environmental advantages are likely to gain market share [4][15][16]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with low absolute valuations and high dividend yields, as well as those with solid earnings and minimal capital expenditure [9]. Lithium and Cobalt Market Outlook - The lithium market is currently oversupplied but is expected to stabilize due to improving demand from the 3C industry and advancements in solid-state battery technology. Short-term prices are projected to remain between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan [14]. - Cobalt is identified as a short-term investment opportunity, with supply constraints from Congo and increased demand from the U.S. Department of Defense likely to drive prices above 400,000 yuan in the coming months [13][14]. Conclusion - The non-ferrous metals sector is poised for growth, driven by supply disruptions, strong demand, and favorable policy support. Investors are encouraged to focus on specific metals and companies that align with these trends for potential returns in the coming years [1][4][5][6][9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and anti - involution policy expectations providing support, while the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upper - bound pressure [1]. - Aluminum prices may fluctuate, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the resilience of external demand, but pressured by weak downstream consumption and volatile trade situations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to the narrowing supply and high downstream inventory levels [4]. - Zinc prices are difficult to fall in the short - term despite the long - term oversupply situation, supported by the low LME warehouse receipts [6]. - Tin prices are expected to decline as the supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter while the demand remains weak [7]. - Nickel prices may have a callback pressure as the short - term improvement in downstream demand is limited, despite a small rebound [9]. - Carbonate lithium prices are affected by the news of mine shutdowns, with frequent emotional fluctuations in the market. Traders are advised to be cautious [11]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend due to the tight market supply [16]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward space due to the off - season of downstream demand and the large basis between futures and spot prices, despite cost support [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 1.4% to $9768/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 28,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 500 tons. The spot import was in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic refined - copper rod and cable operating rates rebounded slightly. In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of SHFE copper at 78000 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper at $9600 - 10000/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, SHFE aluminum rose 0.85%, and LME aluminum rose 1.69% to $2615/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20,000 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 4000 tons. The aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 4000 tons. The downstream buying interest improved. In the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, with the operating range of SHFE aluminum at 20400 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at $2550 - 2660/ton [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.22% to 16846 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $6.5 to $1998.5/ton. The supply has slightly narrowed, and the downstream consumption pressure is high. Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.31% to 22515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $3.5 to $2816.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot is in an oversupply situation, but the low LME warehouse receipts support the price in the short - term [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, while demand is in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to decline [7]. Nickel - On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The short - term macro - environment is positive, but the downstream demand improvement is limited, and nickel prices have a callback pressure. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Friday, the MMLC carbonate lithium spot index rose 2.95% from the previous trading day and 1.45% for the week. The news of mine shutdowns affects the market sentiment, and traders are advised to be cautious [11]. Alumina - On August 8, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 3182 yuan/ton. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12985 yuan/ton. The market supply is tight, and the price is expected to show a strong and volatile trend [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the cast aluminum alloy futures price rose 0.95% to 20110 yuan/ton. The downstream is in the off - season, and the price upward space is limited [18].

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the US tariff details on copper mainly affect the market in several ways, including the reversal of the CL arbitrage spread logic, potential outflow of US export supply, and a more relaxed import situation in China. The report is not pessimistic about copper prices in Q3 and Q4, seeing dips as opportunities [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and August is expected to be a seasonal off - peak for demand. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading strategies [1]. - For zinc, prices have fluctuated downward. Supply is increasing, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is average. Short - term strategies include waiting and watching, holding long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and looking for opportunities in the positive spread between months [2]. - For nickel, supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3]. - For stainless steel, supply has decreased due to some steel mill cut - backs, demand is mainly for rigid needs with some restocking, and the overall fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [3]. - For lead, prices have declined this week. Supply is tight, demand is weak, and there is expected to be inventory accumulation in July. However, lead prices are expected to rise next week as battery factories replenish stocks [5]. - For tin, prices have fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, and demand is expected to slow down. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [7]. - For industrial silicon, the recent supply reduction by leading enterprises has improved the supply - demand balance. The复产 rhythm of Southwest China and Hesheng is crucial. In the long - term, the market will mainly oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the market is affected by resource - end compliance issues. In the short - term, there is upward potential if risks are realized, while in the long - term, prices will oscillate at a low level if risks are resolved [12]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market trading this week focused on the results of the 232 investigation. The US decision not to impose tariffs on refined copper but only on copper products exported to the US has had a significant impact on the market. The CL spread may shift towards export profit, US supply may flow out, and China's import situation may become more relaxed. The market demand support remains, and dips in copper prices are seen as opportunities [1]. Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with imports providing an increment from January to May. August is a seasonal off - peak for demand, with weak aluminum product exports and a decline in the photovoltaic sector. Inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading strategies [1]. Zinc - Prices have fluctuated downward this week. The domestic processing fee (TC) has increased in August, and smelting output has increased. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average. Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May. Short - term strategies include waiting and watching, holding long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and looking for opportunities in the positive spread between months [2]. Nickel - Supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak overall, and inventory at home and abroad is stable. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3]. Stainless Steel - Supply has decreased due to some steel mill cut - backs since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Costs are stable, and inventory in Xifu has decreased slightly. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [3]. Lead - Prices have declined this week. Supply is tight due to low scrap battery supply and high - cost recycling. Demand is weak, with high battery inventory and low consumer purchasing power. There is expected to be inventory accumulation in July, but prices are expected to rise next week as battery factories replenish stocks [5]. Tin - Prices have fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance in domestic smelters. Overseas, there are signs of production resumption in Wa State, and the import volume from the DRC has exceeded expectations. Demand is expected to slow down, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME market. Short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [7]. Industrial Silicon - The recent supply reduction by leading enterprises has improved the supply - demand balance. The market inventory has decreased significantly, and the high basis has led to the cancellation of warehouse receipts. The复产 rhythm of Southwest China and Hesheng is crucial. In the long - term, the market will mainly oscillate at the bottom of the cycle due to over - capacity [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The market has been affected by the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law and resource - end compliance issues. In the short - term, there is upward potential if risks are realized. In the long - term, prices will oscillate at a low level if risks are resolved, and a significant weakening of demand is needed to open up further downward space [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices under pressure and in a volatile state. The aluminum market is affected by macro - economic factors and fundamentals, with short - term price pressure. The zinc market has sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and weak consumption, with prices under pressure. The lead market has cost support, and the prices have a certain bottom - line. The nickel market has limited driving forces for prices and maintains a volatile state. The stainless steel market is affected by macro - expectations and cost factors, with short - term prices returning to the volatile range. The tin market is affected by supply and demand, with short - term prices following market sentiment. The industrial silicon market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term may have a rebound. The polycrystalline silicon market may have a short - term correction and then be involved in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term speculative sentiment and high uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait for policy implementation [7][23][39][44][49][56][64][70][75][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 2,049 lots to 496,800 lots. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was firm, and the spot premium in North China increased slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. Teck Resource's copper production in Q2 2025 decreased year - on - year, and its annual production guidance was lowered. The production schedule of white - goods in August decreased compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of reciprocal tariffs may be relatively mild. The domestic smelters maintain high production, and the market is mainly disturbed by the expectation of copper tariffs. The inventory has increased, and the downstream procurement has slightly increased [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot supply and demand are weak, and it is under pressure and volatile in the short term [7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract rose 33 yuan to 3,307 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 7,296 lots to 359,400 lots. The spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental - control notices. The replacement projects of large - scale alumina enterprises in Shandong were put into production, and the roasting project in Gansu was about to produce. The alumina plant in Guinea had a strike [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the reduction of positions and decline, it stabilized in the short term. The operating capacity increased, and the theoretical surplus expanded. The inventory has been increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low warehouse receipts may drive the price to rebound. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [15][16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 20,605 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 12,072 lots. The spot prices in various regions decreased [18]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the price law was being revised. Huafeng Aluminum planned to purchase aluminum products [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: The LME aluminum price fluctuated and then declined. The domestic market should pay attention to policy expectations. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is under pressure in the short term. Enter the long - spread position of 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. Temporarily wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 20,020 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 246 lots. The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [26]. - **Related Information**: The production of cast aluminum alloy decreased, and the price law was being revised [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap - aluminum sources, and the demand is affected by different orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is under pressure following the aluminum price. Consider the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the spot discount to the futures is more than 300 yuan. Temporarily wait and see for options [31][32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.35% to 22,655 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 6,419 lots. The spot trading was average, and the premium was basically stable [34]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall in North China did not affect the production and transportation of galvanized plants. The zinc concentrate production of some mines increased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The zinc concentrate market is stable, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic refined zinc production may increase. The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement is weak [37][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to setting stop - profit points. Buy put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [40][41]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2509 fell 0.24% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,605 lots. The spot price was stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness improved slightly [42]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall affected the raw - material transportation of recycled lead smelters [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has cost support, and the production of primary and recycled lead is affected. The terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to macro - risks. Sell put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [45][47]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell 1,040 to 121,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 3,705 lots. The premiums of different brands of nickel changed [48]. - **Related Information**: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates. A large - scale nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start in Q4 2025 [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere has weakened, and the nickel price has a limited decline. The supply and demand are weak in July and August, and the price lacks driving forces [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price follows the macro - atmosphere. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [50][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 15 to 12,920 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,224 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [54]. - **Related Information**: The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will drive the demand for stainless steel. A stainless - steel project of Guangqing Metal Technology is expected to be put into production in 2026 [55][56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The speculative atmosphere has cooled down. The external demand is restricted, and the internal demand is in the off - season. The cost has an impact on the price, and the market pays attention to macro - expectations [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price returns to the volatile range. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,660 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the position decreased by 2,289 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was restricted [60]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and a national industrial - information conference was convened [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: The LME inventory increased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price follows the market sentiment. Temporarily wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon opened high and closed at 9,350 yuan/ton. The spot prices generally weakened [67][68]. - **Related Information**: It is rumored that an anti - involution meeting will be held in August [69]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply has increased, and the demand of some downstream products has changed. The social inventory has decreased. The price may decline in the medium - to - long term [70]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and it is weak in the medium - to - long term. Hold the previous protective put options. Participate in the reverse - spread of 11 and 12 contracts, the cash - and - carry arbitrage of 11 and 10 contracts, and the butterfly spread strategy [71]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon futures rose sharply and closed at 50,805 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polycrystalline silicon were given [73]. - **Related Information**: The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [74]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has declined, and the price may have a correction. The capacity integration is imperative, and the silicon - wafer price adjustment is completed [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may have a correction, and then participate in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. Hold the long - polycrystalline - silicon and short - industrial - silicon position for a long time and conduct the reverse - spread of far - month contracts of polycrystalline silicon [76]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract fell 4,440 to 70,840 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 78,853 lots. The spot prices decreased [77]. - **Important Information**: The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world increased in H1 2025, and China had a high share [78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The situation of the ore end is uncertain, and the price may test the support at 65,000 [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term speculative sentiment is strong, and the fundamentals are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see. Enterprises with long - term contracts can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. Temporarily wait and see for options [82][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides trading strategies based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each metal [2][8][17]. - For each metal, the analysis includes market review (both futures and spot markets), relevant news, logical analysis of market movements, and corresponding trading strategies [2][8][17]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, with SHFE copper index reducing positions by 1,809 lots to 497,000 lots. In the spot market, copper prices declined in East, South, and North China, with different trends in spot premiums [2]. - **Important News**: Rumors of Powell's dismissal caused market volatility. In May 2025, global refined copper supply had a surplus of 84,200 tons. Peru lifted a two - week blockade on a major copper transport route. Antofagasta's copper production increased 11% year - on - year in H1 2025 [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff is due on August 1st. LME copper inventory is increasing. The domestic smelter output will remain high in July and August. Market purchasing is mainly for immediate needs and in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range [14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3,089 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 14,701 lots to 407,500 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - **Important News**: National unified market construction was emphasized. There were spot transactions in different regions. Alumina inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 3.188 million tons this week [9][10]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production capacity is stable, but output is rising. The supply - demand pattern will shift from tight balance to structural surplus in July. The import window around 3,200 yuan is the upper pressure for price rebound [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range. For now, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 25 yuan to 20,455 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 5,825 lots to 633,800 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. There were rumors about Powell's dismissal. The decline in housing completion area in June narrowed [17][18]. - **Logical Analysis**: Macro - events may cause overseas aluminum price fluctuations. Fundamentals have negative feedback. Aluminum consumption in the off - season may not be too weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19,845 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 106 lots to 9,969 lots. Spot prices were stable [23]. - **Important News**: In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to May, with a theoretical loss of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply is stable, but demand is weak. Aluminum alloy futures prices will mainly follow the cost and aluminum price trends [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure at high levels. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc 2509 rose 0.55% to 22,120 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE zinc index decreasing by 8,334 lots to 223,300 lots. Spot market transactions were mainly for immediate needs, with weak premiums [28]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 93,500 tons. Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal production in Q2 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: Domestic zinc supply is increasing, and consumption is in the off - season, with inventory piling up. Zinc prices may be under pressure [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to macro - sentiment and capital - side influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Long - term, short positions can be taken on price rebounds. Buy put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: SHFE lead 2508 fell 0.3% to 16,875 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE lead index increasing by 3,476 lots to 100,000 lots. Spot market transactions were not optimistic [33]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 69,000 tons. Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [34]. - **Logical Analysis**: Secondary lead production is in the red, and domestic primary lead smelting has maintenance in July. The lead - battery peak season is approaching, with improving consumption [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try long positions with a small position considering secondary lead cost support and peak - season expectations. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main SHFE nickel contract NI2509 fell 740 yuan to 119,970 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 4,627 lots. Spot premiums showed different trends [40]. - **Important News**: In May 2025, global nickel supply had a surplus of 40,800 tons. From January to May 2025, the surplus was 165,300 tons. Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns about US tariffs resurfaced. Refined nickel supply and demand are weak in the off - season, with stable and slightly increasing inventory. Prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will decline with fluctuations. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [43][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract rose 40 yuan to 12,730 yuan/ton, with index positions decreasing by 776 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48]. - **Important News**: A nickel - iron factory in East China sold nickel - iron. National stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [49]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless - steel demand is not optimistic, with high inventory pressure. The cost has increased, and prices will oscillate at a high level [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level. Wait and see for arbitrage [51][52]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices were stable [54][55]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon and its derivatives [56][58]. - **Logical Analysis**: Leading manufacturers' production decreased by 20,000 tons in July. If leading manufacturers do not resume production, the supply - demand will be balanced. Prices may be strong in the short - term [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - term long - bias view. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage strategy. There is no option strategy [60]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract rose 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A photovoltaic project's component procurement bid was announced [62]. - **Logical Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be transmitted downstream. Market sentiment is positive, and prices may be strong in the short - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will be strong in the short - term [65]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,640 yuan to 67,960 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 17,801 lots and Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) warehouse receipts decreasing by 416 to 10,239 tons. Spot prices were stable [66]. - **Important News**: Three Australian lithium mines have shut down. Zangge Mining's lithium - related subsidiary stopped production [67]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. Demand in July is not weak. Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may decline in Q4 [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: News affects sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply [2][9] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upside potential [2][13] - Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment [2][13] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 120,550, and the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,670. There are also data on trading volume, prices of various nickel products, and price differences in the industrial chain [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project enters the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter resumes production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to stop production for maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban; environmental violations are found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production target of Indonesian nickel mines in 2025 is higher than that in 2024 [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 66,420, and there are data on trading volume, position, warehouse receipts, and price differences in the industrial chain [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index rises; in June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increase year - on - year, with exports increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 is 8,685, and the closing price of PS2508 is 42,945. There are also data on trading volume, position, price differences, inventory, and raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The US launches a national security investigation into the import of polysilicon [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [15]