英国石油公司暂停西班牙工厂生产清洁航空燃料的计划。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price in 2025 may show a V-shaped trend. It is under short - and medium - term pressure but is expected to rebound from the bottom in the second half of the year, with an annual fluctuation range of $55 - 80 per barrel [3]. - It is recommended to focus on petrochemical chain targets with low valuations, complete industrial chains, and integrated cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. [81]. - In the face of Trump's tariff policy, there is an increased expectation of economic growth slowdown. Interest - rate bonds' safe - haven demand rises, and the RMB exchange rate is under short - term pressure, but the risk of large - scale unilateral depreciation is controllable. It is short - term bearish on commodities but optimistic about domestic consumption recovery and self - controllable industrial chains [82]. Summary by Directory 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: In March 2025, Brent crude oil fluctuated upward and closed at around $74 per barrel at the end of the month. After Trump's tariff policy was announced in early April, the oil price dropped significantly [3]. - **Supply**: OPEC +'s additional 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreement will be extended until the end of 2026, while the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut agreement will end at the end of April. The United States' oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will reach a record 2 million barrels per day [3]. - **Demand**: US refinery processing volume in March was at a low level, and commercial crude oil inventory was repaired but lower than the same period last year. China's crude oil consumption improved in January - February 2025, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the processing of above - scale industrial crude oil [3]. - **Prediction**: The oil price is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 80 per barrel in 2025. The supply increase by the end of this year will lead to inventory accumulation and put downward pressure on prices [3][8][9]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: As of April 4, 2025, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was about 4.01% and declined again. The 10 - year - 2 - year US Treasury bond yield spread has basically ended the inversion, but there was an intensified inversion with the 3 - month Treasury bond in early April [28][34]. - **Exchange Rates**: In March, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, closing at 104.2, a 3.16% decline from the end of the previous month. The offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, closing at 7.27, a 0.39% appreciation from the end of the previous month [35]. - **Inflation**: In February, the US CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The PPI increased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the smallest month - on - month increase since July last year [44]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The US 3 - month ISM manufacturing PMI index was 49.0, showing the first contraction this year [3][48]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - **Profit**: In March, the price of international crude oil continued to decline, driving down the prices of industrial chain products. The ethylene cracking spread from naphtha was $162 per ton, a $3 per ton decline from the previous month. The profit of the PX - PTA - polyester filament full industrial chain was about - 136 yuan per ton, a 39 - yuan per ton decrease from the previous month [53]. - **Supply and Demand**: The terminal textile and clothing orders were less than expected, and the inventory of polyester filament enterprises increased. The PTA industry was still in a loss state, and only leading or integrated enterprises could maintain positive cash flow [59][68]. - **Export**: From January to February 2025, the export of polyester filament increased, while the export of textile and clothing decreased [73]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Suggestions - **Petrochemical Enterprises**: Optimistic about petrochemical enterprises with low valuations, complete industrial chains, and integrated cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. [81]. - **Asset Allocation**: In terms of interest - rate bonds, the demand for safe - haven assets increases. In terms of commodities, short - term bearish due to the trade war, but the domestic petrochemical industry chain has cost - competitive advantages. In terms of equities, optimistic about domestic consumption recovery and self - controllable industrial chains [82].

1 多箭齐发！中方坚决反制美"对等关税" 美东时间4月2日，美方宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"。中方对此坚决反对，并表示将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益。4月4日，中方接连表态并发布反制行 动： 国务院关税税则委员会公告，对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税； 商务部会同海关总署对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制措施； 中方在世贸组织起诉美"对等关税"措施； 商务部将斯凯迪奥公司等11家美国企业列入不可靠实体清单； 商务部将16家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单； 商务部对进口医用CT球管发起产业竞争力立案调查； 商务部对原产于美国、印度的进口相关医用CT球管发起反倾销立案调查； 海关总署暂停美国C&D (USA) INC.企业高粱和American Proteins inc.等3家企业禽肉骨粉输华资质； 海关总署暂停美国2家禽肉企业产品输华。 5 程序化交易规则落地！三大交易所细化监管标准 2 特朗普回应股市崩盘 在美国宣布所谓"对等关税"政策引发美国和全球股市震荡后，美国总统特朗普最新在社交媒体上转发其支持者发布的一段视频，视频开头表示 股市崩盘是" ...

中国石油天然气股份有限公司日前发布公告宣布，2024年公司积极应对形势变化，持续加大勘探开发力度，深入推进炼化转型升级，不断提升市场营销质量，着力实施提质增效行动，扎实推进 数据显示，2024年，按照国际财务报告会计准则，中国石油公司实现营业收入2.9万亿元；归属于母公司股东净利润1646.8亿元，同比增长2.0%。公司资产负债结构进一步优化，财务状况保持 油气增储上产成效显著，当量产量持续增长。2024年，中国石油公司油气当量产量2.4亿吨，同比增长2.2%。国内油气当量产量2.2亿吨，同比增长2.5%，其中原油产量1.1亿吨，同比增长0 炼化转型升级步伐加快，新材料产量再创新高。数据显示，2024年，中国石油加工原油1.9亿吨；生产成品油1.2亿吨；化工产品商品量3898.1万吨，同比增长13.6%；化工新材料产量204.5 同时，天然气销售质效双升，销量创历史新纪录。据介绍，中国石油合理配置国产和进口资源，统筹协调储气库注采和LNG现货采购，努力降低天然气资源池成本。持续优化天然气业务市场布局 ...

金融界4月3日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证沪港深500上游指数 (沪港深500上游，H30561)报2238.79 点。 数据统计显示，中证沪港深500上游指数近一个月上涨6.72%，近三个月上涨2.31%，年至今上涨 0.96%。 从指数持仓来看，中证沪港深500上游指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（13.46%）、紫金矿业 （12.36%）、中国神华（5.47%）、中国石油股份（5.39%）、中国神华（4.36%）、紫金矿业 （4.16%）、中国石油化工股份（4.04%）、中国石油（3.97%）、中国石化（3.6%）、陕西煤业 （3.36%）。 从中证沪港深500上游指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比54.67%、香港证券交易所占比 34.71%、深圳证券交易所占比10.62%。 从中证沪港深500上游指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比33.99%、贵金属占比21.55%、煤炭 占比18.74%、工业金属占比14.43%、稀有金属占比8.32%、其他非金属材料占比1.32%、其他有色金属 及合金占比0.95%、油气开采与油田服务占比0.70%。 资料显示，该指数系列样本每半年调整一次，样本调 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 3.37% at 3,310 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.75% at 3,777 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continued to rise, with Brent reaching around $75 per barrel, strengthening the cost support for fuel oil, causing both FU and LU to follow the upward trend [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, although the market structure has adjusted recently due to the decline in refinery demand, there are still supporting factors. The current tight heavy oil situation will limit the supply growth of high-sulfur fuel oil. With the approaching summer, the power demand in the Middle East, Egypt and other regions will see a seasonal increase. Due to the shortage of natural gas, Egypt, Iran and Iraq are expected to use more high-sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the driving force is relatively limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate in the direction of crude oil, and the market structure remains stable. In the medium term, its market share is squeezed by desulfurization towers and clean energy, and it may face further pressure after the Mediterranean ECA takes effect in May [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 3.37% at 3,310 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.75% at 3,777 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continued to rise, with Brent reaching around $75 per barrel, strengthening the cost support for fuel oil, causing both FU and LU to follow the upward trend [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, although the market structure has adjusted recently due to the decline in refinery demand, there are still supporting factors. The current tight heavy oil situation will limit the supply growth of high-sulfur fuel oil. With the approaching summer, the power demand in the Middle East, Egypt and other regions will see a seasonal increase. Due to the shortage of natural gas, Egypt, Iran and Iraq are expected to use more high-sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the driving force is relatively limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate in the direction of crude oil, and the market structure remains stable. In the medium term, its market share is squeezed by desulfurization towers and clean energy, and it may face further pressure after the Mediterranean ECA takes effect in May [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate, with short-term adjustments and support at the bottom [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate, with a bearish outlook in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: no specific strategy [2] - Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices [2] - Spot-futures: no specific strategy [2] - Options: no specific strategy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index (CSI) Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen 500 Upstream Index has shown a recent upward trend, reflecting the performance of securities listed in the Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen markets through the Stock Connect program [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen 500 Upstream Index closed at 2240.09 points, with a 6.79% increase over the past month, a 1.02% increase over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 1.02% [1]. - The index is based on the comprehensive index samples of the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect and the CSI 500 Index, reflecting various thematic investment perspectives [1]. Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen 500 Upstream Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (13.19%), Zijin Mining (12.8%), China Shenhua Energy (5.42%), and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (5.3%) [1]. - The market share of the index holdings is distributed as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 55.08%, Hong Kong Stock Exchange 34.30%, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange 10.62% [1]. Group 3: Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index holdings includes: Oil and Gas 33.58%, Precious Metals 22.24%, Coal 18.42%, Industrial Metals 14.52%, Rare Metals 8.31%, Other Non-Metallic Materials 1.33%, Other Non-Ferrous Metals and Alloys 0.90%, and Oil and Gas Extraction and Oilfield Services 0.71% [2]. - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2].

在国际油价连续两年下降的背景下，中国石油经营业绩保持增长。2024年公司主要生产经营指标， 税前利润、净利润、净资产收益率、资本回报率再创历史新高，高质量发展迈上新的台阶。 转自：证券日报网 本报记者 向炎涛 3月31日，中国石油天然气股份有限公司（以下简称"中国石油"）召开2024年度业绩说明会。2024 年，按照国际财务报告会计准则，中国石油实现营业收入2.9万亿元；归属于母公司股东净利润1646.8亿 元，同比增长2.0%。 当前，中国石油正加速炼化转型升级，深入实施减油增化、减油增特，不断提升高附加值产品产 量，积极向"炼化生精材"产业链中高端转型。2024年，公司化工新材料产量204.5万吨，同比增长 49.3%；炼化新材料业务实现经营利润213.9亿元。 中国石油副总裁李汝新对《证券日报》记者表示，下一步，公司将在炼化业务转型升级过程中进一 步发挥产业一体化优势。中国石油业务涵盖油气勘探开发、炼化生产销售、高端材料生产等全产业链环 节，按照发展规划，公司在科技创新方面布局了相关课题、研究院和产业转化平台。随着战略举措逐步 落地，叠加绿色化、智能化的支撑，未来公司的炼化业务会更加稳健发展，从而为回报 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 "三桶油"之一的中国海油（600938.SH、00883.HK）经营业绩实现了逆势增长。 3月27日晚，中国海油如期披露了2024年年度报告。公司实现营业收入4205.06亿元，同比增长0.94%； 归属母公司股东的净利润（以下简称"归母净利润"）为1379.36亿元，同比增长11.38%。 2024年，国际油价总体呈先涨后跌走势，全年布伦特原油均价79.9美元/桶，同比下跌约2.9%。 油价下跌，归母净利润增长，中国海油是靠什么实现的？ 2024年，中国海油实现油气净产量726.8百万桶油当量，同比增长7.2%。公司综合毛利率、净利率分别 为53.63%、32.81%，均较上年有所上升。 中国海油董事长汪东进在3月27日的业绩说明会上表示，目前，公司开采成本较十年前降低40%，同等 油价下利润翻番。 2024年，中国海油的资本开支为1327亿元，公司一批重大新项目成功投产。 中国海油的财务状况继续向好。截至2024年末，公司有息负债918.87亿元，同比减少282.90亿元。期 末，公司资产负债率仅为29.05%，为2018年底以来最低水平。 净利年增141亿 中国海油 ...

Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 138 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [1] - The total operating revenue for 2024 was 420.51 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow was 220.89 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year, while free cash flow reached 97.5 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 94.42 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to falling oil prices and reduced trade income [1] Production and Cost Management - The company achieved record high oil and gas net production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [2] - Oil and gas sales revenue reached 355.62 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The average realized price for crude oil was 76.8 USD per barrel, down 1.6% year-on-year, with a narrowing discount to Brent crude [2] - The main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 28.52 USD, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [2] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company completed capital expenditures of 132.5 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year [3] - The company made 11 new discoveries and confirmed net reserves of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [3] - The board proposed a final dividend of 0.66 HKD per share, with a total annual dividend of 1.40 HKD per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 44.7% [3]