Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rebound due to the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to lead to actual production cuts and improve coal prices. The analysis is based on the mean reversion of return on equity (ROE) and the reasonable profit distribution levels of thermal coal and coking coal within their respective industrial chains [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed significant increases in coal commodities and equity prices. The report highlights the importance of understanding the future space for coal under this policy, particularly following the State Energy Administration's notice regarding coal mine production inspections [6][18] ROE Perspective - The report calculates the expected central price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on historical average ROE. The central price for thermal coal is estimated at 749 CNY/ton, which is 96 CNY/ton higher than the price of 653 CNY/ton on July 25, 2025 (+14.7%). For coking coal, the central price is estimated at 1838 CNY/ton, which is 158 CNY/ton higher than the July 25 price of 1680 CNY/ton (+9.4%) [6][34][35] Industry Chain Perspective - The report assesses the reasonable price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on profit distribution in the coal-electricity and coal-steel industrial chains. It estimates that the reasonable price for thermal coal could be between 776 CNY/ton and 835 CNY/ton, reflecting potential increases of 18.9% and 27.9% respectively from current prices. For coking coal, the reasonable price could range from 1707 CNY/ton to 2094 CNY/ton, with corresponding increases of 1.6% to 24.7% [7][44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that there is still room for price-to-book (PB) mean reversion, indicating a favorable investment ratio for coal stocks. It recommends focusing on short-term rebounds and long-term reversal opportunities in the coal sector. Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Elastic stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical 3. Transition growth stocks: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [8][50][52]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of industry investment value as a comprehensive measure of a company's collaborative ability, technological potential, and long-term development prospects within the industrial ecosystem [1][3] - It highlights that traditional industry companies must actively redefine their industrial roles and strategic positioning to enhance their investment value in the context of rapid digital economic growth and technological revolution [2][4] Group 1: Understanding Industry Investment Value - Industry investment value is crucial for assessing a company's long-term sustainability and its ability to integrate into the industrial ecosystem, contrasting with financial investment which focuses on short-term returns [3][4] - The evaluation of industry investment value is evolving due to profound changes in the industrial landscape driven by technological innovation and the digital economy [6][7] Group 2: Opportunities for Traditional Industry Companies - Traditional industry companies must seize four key opportunities arising from the deep evolution of the industrial landscape: leveraging digital economy opportunities, understanding new demand characteristics, utilizing network hub advantages, and adapting to the characteristics of the industrial era [1][7] - Many excellent traditional industry companies have not received reasonable valuations due to static categorization and labeling by investors, which often overlooks their innovative capabilities [4][5] Group 3: Digital Economy and New Demand - The digital economy is reshaping industrial organization and competition, creating a three-tiered ecosystem that includes core technology companies, transformation platforms, and application scenario enterprises [9][10] - Companies must actively engage with end-user demands and create new consumption experiences to enhance their investment value, moving beyond traditional supply-demand logic [12][13] Group 4: Flow and Network Hub Advantages - In the information age, flow (people, logistics, capital, information, energy) is a core element of value creation, and companies that can leverage their network hub positions will gain competitive advantages [17][18] - Traditional companies must transition to digital value hubs by effectively utilizing their existing infrastructure and flow resources to enhance their investment value [18][19] Group 5: Industry Transformation and Innovation - The boundaries between traditional and emerging industries are increasingly blurred, and companies must redefine their identities and capabilities to adapt to this transformation [20][21] - Emerging industry companies must maintain their innovation momentum to avoid becoming stagnant and losing their competitive edge [23][24]

科创50指数日K线图 周恒 制图 ■机构展望 机构分析认为，近期市场行情演绎出比较典型的流动性驱动特征：机构资金流入今年以来持续回暖，随 着近期市场赚钱效应开始积累，个人投资者资金加速入市，两市融资余额重返1.9万亿元上方。往后 看，在交投情绪乐观，增量资金稳定的背景下，本轮行情仍有较好的延续性。8月A股有望延续震荡偏 强走势，市场或呈现"顺周期搭台，成长唱戏"的特征。 多路增量资金入市推动指数上行 流动性驱动上涨行情进一步演绎 资金共识聚焦"科技+周期" 上周，A股三大指数全线上涨。机构分析认为，近期市场行情演绎出比较典型的流动性驱动特征。往后 看，在交投情绪乐观，增量资金稳定的背景下，本轮行情仍有较好的延续性。8月A股有望延续震荡偏 强走势，市场或呈现"顺周期搭台，成长唱戏"的特征 ◎记者 汪友若 上周，A股三大指数全线上涨，上证指数涨1.67%，深证成指涨2.33%，创业板指涨2.76%。市场结构方 面，大基建概念整体走强，钢铁、煤炭、水泥等"反内卷"概念延续强势。与此同时，半导体、AI等科技 股反复活跃，科创50指数领涨市场，周涨幅为4.63%。 中国银河证券分析称，在盈利信号尚未确立的环境下，本轮上 ...

Funding Sources - Incremental funds since late April have been driven by margin financing and insurance contributions, with significant structural inflows observed since late June[1] - Northbound funds have fluctuated around a market value of CNY 2.3 trillion, with trading activity declining to approximately 6% recently, close to levels seen in early April[1] - Margin financing balance has accelerated since late June, reaching CNY 1.94 trillion by July 24, nearing the historical high of CNY 1.95 trillion from March 2025[1] Market Trends - Market style has shifted from a "barbell" structure to a broader sector expansion, with small-cap stocks showing a steeper upward trend compared to mid and large-cap stocks since mid-July[2] - The average repeat rate of leading concepts from April 7 to July 25 has remained around 16%, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in market hotspots, with rapid rotation of themes occurring every 2 to 3 trading days[2] - Overall market sentiment has improved, with increased trading volume and a more optimistic outlook for the third quarter, despite potential limitations in economic growth compared to the second quarter[2] Sector Selection Strategy - Recommended sectors for investment include those likely to benefit from upcoming policies, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors like robotics that have shown weaker prior performance[2] - Sectors that have not yet experienced significant upward movement, such as alcoholic beverages, service consumption, and real estate development, are also suggested for balanced investment strategies[2] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include delays in policy implementation, crowded funding risks as margin financing approaches previous highs, and discrepancies between estimated and actual fund positions[2]

【焦炭、焦煤期货周五收盘大涨，市场情绪向好】截止本周五收盘，焦炭2509合约收于1763元/吨，环 比上周涨16.1%；焦煤2509合约收于1259元/吨，环比上周涨35.9%。本期受宏观政策及市场情绪等因素 影响，价格大幅上扬。 供给上，本周Mysteel统计独立焦企样本焦炭日均产量51.92万吨，环比增0.51万 吨，产能利用率73.61%，较上周增0.71%。焦炭三轮提涨落地，开启第四轮提涨，因钢厂需求支撑、市 场预期向好，日均产量和产能利用率均提升。 需求端，Mysteel调研显示，247家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比上周持平，同比去年增1.13个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.81%，环比上周降0.08个百 分点，同比去年增1.2个百分点；钢厂盈利率63.64%，环比上周增3.47个百分点，同比去年增48.49个百 分点；日均铁水产量242.23万吨，环比上周降0.21万吨，同比去年增2.62万吨，铁水产量仍处高位。 库 存方面，Mysteel调研数据表明，本期247家钢厂焦炭库存639.98万吨，环比增0.99万吨；247家钢厂焦煤 库存799.51万吨，环比增8.41万吨。独立焦企小幅去库 ...

【焦炭、焦煤期货价格本周大幅上涨，市场供需与宏观因素共同影响】截止本周五收盘，焦炭2509合约 收于1763元/吨，环比上周上涨16.1%；焦煤2509合约收于1259元/吨，环比上周上涨35.9%。本期受宏观 政策及市场情绪等因素影响，价格大幅上涨。 供给方面，本周Mysteel统计独立焦企样本焦炭日均产量 51.92万吨，环比增加0.51万吨，产能利用率73.61%，较上周增加0.71%。因焦炭三轮提涨落地、开启第 四轮提涨，钢厂需求支撑及市场预期向好，产量与产能利用率提升。 需求方面，Mysteel调研显示，247 家钢厂高炉开工率83.46%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加1.13个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.81%， 环比上周减少0.08个百分点，同比去年增加1.2个百分点；钢厂盈利率63.64%，环比上周增加3.47个百分 点，同比去年增加48.49个百分点；日均铁水产量242.23万吨，环比上周减少0.21万吨，同比去年增加 2.62万吨，铁水产量仍处高位。 库存方面，Mysteel调研数据表明，本期247家钢厂焦炭库存639.98万 吨，环比增加0.99万吨；247家钢厂焦煤库存799.51万 ...

报告导读： 煤炭价格见底回升，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 煤炭价格加速回暖，反内卷政策再升温 ；报告日期：2025.07.23 报告作者： 黄涛（分析师）登记编号：S0880515090001 王楠瑀（研究助理）登记编号： S0880123060041 重要提醒 计未来3个月是关键的基本面验证时点。 投资建议：从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心标的。 煤价继续回升，"反内卷"持续发酵。 2025年7月22日，国家能源局综合司发布促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通 知。通知显示，今年以来，全国煤炭供需形势总体宽松，价格持续下行，部分煤矿企业"以量补价"，超公 告产能组织生产严重扰乱煤炭市场秩序。为规范煤矿企业生产行为，促进煤炭供应平稳有序，国家能源局 拟于近期在重点产煤省(区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作。1）需求端：5月开始，伴随天气的快速转 热，全社会用电量增速也提升至4.4%，带动火电发电量已经由负转正至1.2%，6月火电发电量同比 +1.1%。我们认为伴随全国正式进入盛夏，从当前气象数据显示今年夏天气温较历史平均更高，旺季需求 日 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to accelerate its rise, with a shift in leading sectors towards technology. The index is anticipated to continue its upward trend without significant resistance, as evidenced by the recent increases in major indices: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.67%, ChiNext Index up 2.76%, and Sci-Tech 50 Index up 4.63% [2][13]. - There is an imminent change in the leading structure of industries and themes. Last week, the leading sectors included construction materials (up 8.2%), coal (up 8.0%), steel (up 7.7%), and non-ferrous metals (up 6.7%), driven by themes such as "anti-involution" and hydropower station developments. However, the report suggests that the current phase of rapid price increases may be nearing its end, and market expectations for policy announcements may not exceed optimistic forecasts [3][14]. - The technology sector is expected to become the main focus of attention as the rapid rise of cyclical sectors comes to an end. The report emphasizes that technology will be the main line of the upcoming market trends [4][15]. Group 2 - The report maintains a positive outlook on artificial intelligence (AI) as a key theme, predicting significant marginal changes in the AI industry over the next 1-2 months. The release of new models, such as OpenAI's GPT-5, is expected to stimulate competition and drive growth in the sector [5][16]. - Within the AI theme, the report highlights strong potential in domestic computing power, AI applications, PCB-related sectors, and robotics. It argues that domestic computing power is crucial for national development and will likely receive continued policy support. AI applications are expected to gain traction as new models are released, while the PCB sector remains in an upward trend. Robotics, as a significant application of AI, is also projected to follow the growth of the AI sector [6][17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Insights - The recent notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production checks is interpreted as a significant policy move to curb overproduction, potentially leading to a marginal reduction in coal supply of 140 million tons in the second half of the year, which represents 3% of the projected national coal output for 2024 [2][7] - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 7.93% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.24 percentage points, indicating strong market performance [6][20] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port reached 653 RMB/ton, an increase of 11 RMB/ton week-on-week, while coking coal prices at Jingtang port rose to 1680 RMB/ton, up 240 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][20] Summary by Sections Policy and Production Impact - The policy aims to stabilize coal prices above long-term contract prices by enforcing stricter production limits, with annual coal output not exceeding announced capacity and monthly output limited to 110% of announced capacity [8] - The production check will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, with significant overproduction noted in Xinjiang and some months exceeding 100% capacity utilization in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia [8][14] Market Performance - The coal sector's strong performance is attributed to favorable fundamentals and expectations of reduced supply due to the production checks, leading to a positive outlook for coal prices in the short term [6][20] - The report highlights that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption, further supporting price increases [20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential for growth and stability, including: - Elastic stocks: Lu'an Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, and Shanxi Coal International - Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical - Transitioning growth companies: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [9]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.2 times, positioned at the historical 82nd percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 34.8 times, at the historical 20th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 146.2 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: The price of polysilicon futures increased by 15.2% to 50,000 yuan, while the price of silicon wafers rose by 10.5% [2] - Battery materials: The prices of cobalt and nickel increased by 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively, while lithium prices saw increases of 7.1% for lithium hexafluorophosphate and 9.0% for lithium carbonate [2] Financial Sector - Insurance: The cumulative year-on-year growth of various insurance premiums was 5.3% for the first half of 2025, with an expected further reduction in the preset interest rate for life insurance products [3] Real Estate Chain - Steel: The spot price of rebar rose by 5.4%, and the futures price increased by 6.6% [3] - Cement: The national cement price index fell by 1.5% due to weak demand [3] Consumer Sector - Pork: The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.8%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 1.0% [3] - Alcohol: The wholesale price index for liquor remained stable, with a slight decrease in the price of Moutai [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavators: Sales of excavators increased by 13.3% year-on-year in June 2025, with domestic sales up by 6.2% and exports up by 19.3% [3] Technology TMT - Optical Communication Modules: Exports decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in export prices [3] Cyclical Industries - Precious Metals: COMEX gold and silver prices fell by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - Coal: The price of thermal coal rose by 1.7%, while coking coal prices increased by 9.5% [3]