拉尼娜现象叠加供应边际收缩，煤炭旺季需求韧性凸显。煤价涨幅持续超预期。基本面看，煤炭板块供需格局优化，或可把握四季度投资机遇。 全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）大涨超2%，当前规模超130亿元，感兴趣的投资者或可借道煤炭ETF（515220）捕捉煤炭板块机遇。 煤炭或迎反弹机遇，把握煤炭板块四季度投资机会 当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供了空间。随着供给端"查超产"政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端"金九银十"旺季非电煤需求预期回暖， 煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长协机制修复和"煤和火电企业盈利均分"的逻辑支撑；而炼焦煤因市场化程 度更高，对供需变化更敏感，可能展现出更大的价格弹性。 冷冬概率或大增，煤炭供需迎利好 拉尼娜或致冷冬概率大增。根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）预测，2025年12月-2026年2月期间，拉尼娜现象有望持续存在。历史数据显示，拉尼 娜事件往往导致我国中东部地区气温较常年偏低，冬季偏冷概率显著增加。10月至今，国内南方高温叠加北方气温骤降，"南热北冷"天气极大拉动耗煤需 求。 其次，反内卷影响下的煤炭供给，收缩幅度全行业领 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 769.0 3.0 0.0 63.0 -86.0 25省终端可用天数 25.2 -1.5 5.3 4.3 7.6 秦皇岛5000 677.0 1.0 -1.0 62.0 -78.0 25省终端供煤 536.1 0.4 -72.5 -104.0 -86.8 广州港5500 805.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -105.0 北方港库存 2156.0 -25.0 -57.0 44.0 -187.1 鄂尔多斯5500 540.0 0.0 -20.0 30.0 -90.0 北方锚地船舶 86.0 -22.0 -22.0 20.0 47.0 大同5500 590.0 0.0 -20.0 25.0 -120.0 北方港调入量 162.8 -4.5 -1.3 -6.5 -2.9 榆林6000 682.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -138.0 北方港吞吐量 176.7 10.4 2.6 8.4 15.7 榆林6200 710.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -138.0 CBCFI海运指数 962.2 19.1 34.9 302.0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown an upward trend, driven by seasonal demand in the coal industry and regulatory impacts on supply [1] - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has seen significant growth in both scale and shares, with an increase of 464.92 million yuan in scale and 4.2 million shares in the past week [1] - The coal industry is experiencing a seasonal opportunity due to supply constraints and the onset of the heating season in northern regions, which is expected to lead to a rapid recovery in demand [1] Group 2 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index is composed of 100 listed companies selected for their high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 17.08% of the total index, with notable companies including COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699) [2] - The ETF closely tracks the performance of the index, providing investors with exposure to high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2]

业绩方面，兖矿能源发布公告，2025年一至三季度，集团实现营业收入1049.57亿元，同比减少138.30亿 元，减幅为11.64%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润71.20亿元，同比减少45.81亿元，减幅为 39.15%。基本每股收益0.71元。值得关注的是，国海证券指出，前三季度，西北矿业商品煤产量2507万 吨，同比增长382万吨，若年化去看，西北矿业的并表预计将直接贡献公司3000多万吨煤炭增量。此次 西北矿业的并表将助力公司完成3亿吨煤炭产能规划目标，进一步强化公司煤炭板块竞争优势。 消息面上，近日，兖矿能源发布公告，2025年第三季度，商品煤产量4603万吨，同比增加4.92%；商品 煤销量4582万吨，同比增加10.08%；其中，自产煤销量4419万吨，同比增加12.21%。2025年前三季 度，商品煤产量13589万吨，同比增加6.90%；商品煤销量12624万吨，同比增加2.43%；其中，自产煤 销量12213万吨，同比增加4.50%。 智通财经APP获悉，兖矿能源(01171)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.15%，报11.22港元，成交额2.92亿港元。 ...

Core Insights - Yunmei Energy's stock increased by 5.87% to 4.69 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 59.39 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.16%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 5.206 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Yunmei Energy, established on January 20, 1997, and listed on January 23, 1997, is located in Anning Industrial Park, Yunnan Province. The company primarily engages in the production of coke from coal, utilizing by-products to manufacture gas or methanol, and further processes coal tar and crude benzene into chemical products [1] - The revenue composition of Yunmei Energy is as follows: coke 79.41%, gas 8.19%, chemical products 7.73%, equipment manufacturing 3.20%, other (supplementary) 1.47%, and gas engineering 0.01% [1] Shareholder Insights - Guotai Fund's Guotai Zhongzheng Coal ETF (515220) is among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yunmei Energy, having increased its holdings by 10.361 million shares in Q3, totaling 17.3544 million shares, which represents 1.64% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 4.5121 million CNY [2] - The Guotai Zhongzheng Coal ETF was established on January 20, 2020, with a current scale of 11.413 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 4.63%, ranking 4016 out of 4216 in its category; one-year returns are 3.8%, ranking 3732 out of 3894; and since inception, the return is 166% [2]

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 柳林主焦 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 1100.00 1600.00 2100.00 2600.00 3100.00 3600.00 4100.00 4600.00 蒙煤仓单 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 蒙古口岸原煤库提价 A10.5，V28，S<0.6%，G83 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 普氏峰景 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 900.00 1400.00 1900.00 240 ...

Group 1 - As of November 3, China Qinfa (00866.HK) increased by 5.48% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) rose by 3.66% [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) saw an increase of 1.64% [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Fengshen Co., the only centrally controlled tire listed company in China, has entered a growth phase with a 168% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [2][6][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.543 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 13.58% increase year-on-year, despite a decline in net profit [6][8] - The average selling price of products increased by 7.88% year-on-year to 1198 yuan per tire, contributing to improved profitability [8][10] Group 2 - Dongfang Tower benefited from the potassium fertilizer boom, reporting a 77.57% increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a revenue of 3.392 billion yuan [16][17] - The company’s gross profit margin increased by 10.23 percentage points to 40.53% due to rising potassium prices [17][19] - The average price of potassium chloride reached 3269 yuan per ton in Q3 2025, up 773 yuan per ton year-on-year [17][19] Group 3 - Longbai Group's net profit decreased by 34.68% year-on-year in Q3 2025, impacted by falling titanium dioxide prices, with a revenue of 6.105 billion yuan [23][24] - The average price of titanium dioxide fell by 2018 yuan per ton year-on-year, leading to a significant profit squeeze [25][27] - The company is pursuing a strategic acquisition of Venator UK's titanium dioxide assets to enhance its global presence [27][29] Group 4 - Shanmei International reported a 30.20% decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit drop of 49.74% [32][33] - The company’s coal production increased by 8.73% year-on-year, while trade coal sales fell by 28.50% [35][36] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 24.72% year-on-year, affecting overall profitability [36][37] Group 5 - Fenhong Media achieved a total revenue of 9.607 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 3.73% year-on-year growth [38][39] - The company’s gross profit margin improved significantly, reaching 74.1% in Q3 2025 [40][41] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per share, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [41][42] Group 6 - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank reported a 0.67% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 3.74% [43][44] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.12%, reflecting improved asset quality [44]

Core Viewpoint - The company announces the latest development progress of its wholly-owned subsidiary PT Trisula Sumber Energi (TSE) in coal mining in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, highlighting the project's potential and timeline for construction [1] Group 1: Project Details - TSE coal mine is located in North Kotabaru, South Kalimantan, covering an area of 168 square kilometers, including parts of Kelumpang Hulu and Kelumpang Barat [1] - The mining business license (No. 03/1/IUP/PMA/2024) is valid for ten years until May 14, 2034, with a possibility of a ten-year extension [1] - Currently, the TSE coal mine is in the pre-operational planning stage and construction activities are expected to commence in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2: Resource Estimates - The coal quality at TSE ranges from 4,990 to 6,056 kcal/kg, which is superior to the existing SDE coal mine's level of approximately 4,500 kcal/kg [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the estimated coal reserves at TSE are 379 million tons, with total estimated coal resources (proven + controlled) of 897 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The current index level is more favorable than in 2015, with significantly lower valuation levels, suggesting that there is no need to overly focus on the index points themselves [1] - Structural opportunities still exist in various sectors such as new energy, chemicals, consumer electronics, resources, and machinery, despite short-term investor caution primarily in the technology sector [1] - The market is expected to experience a structural adjustment, with a focus on traditional manufacturing upgrades, Chinese companies going abroad, and edge AI [1] Group 2 - The overall growth is entering a recovery cycle, with improvements in net profit margins and a broadening of growth across sectors due to accelerated overseas expansion and the resolution of internal competition [2] - The third quarter saw a continued recovery in performance for non-financial sectors, with large and mid-cap stocks showing greater earnings elasticity [2] - Certain industries, such as new technology and global pricing resources, are in a recovery and expansion phase, while others face excess pressure [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation and adjustment, with a potential shift in market style and themes [4] - The electronic industry and growth style have reached historically high levels of allocation, which may trigger structural adjustments [4] - Key sectors to focus on include coal, oil and gas, new energy, non-bank financials, public utilities, media, food and beverage, and transportation [4] Group 4 - The external environment has improved with the recent US-China trade talks, alleviating market concerns about external uncertainties [5] - Macro policies are expected to continue to strengthen, creating a favorable environment for the A-share market [5] - The focus for investment should be on technology companies with real technological barriers and sectors benefiting from domestic consumption [5] Group 5 - The focus of the market is shifting towards internal structural optimization following the completion of the third-quarter reports [6] - The consensus reached in US-China trade discussions, along with a mild recovery in overseas demand, is expected to boost domestic export-related sectors [6] - Key sectors to watch include AI, software, power, energy storage, and emerging themes like controlled nuclear fusion and commercial aerospace [6] Group 6 - The market is likely to experience a period of volatility and consolidation in the short term, with a more optimistic long-term outlook [7] - The current economic growth targets and stable policy environment are expected to support further market gains [7] - Attention should be given to low-base sectors that may release greater elasticity in the coming year, particularly in cyclical and consumer areas [7] Group 7 - The market is undergoing a rebalancing phase, with a high concentration of holdings in the TMT sector and improvements in capital returns for various industries [8] - The focus is shifting from excitement over capital expenditure to skepticism about its expansion, with a notable shift in AI investments towards traditional industries [8] - Opportunities exist in upstream resources and sectors benefiting from domestic price stabilization and economic recovery [8] Group 8 - The technology growth sector is experiencing a slowdown in short-term over-allocation, leading to increased volatility [9] - The TMT sector's allocation by funds has reached historical highs, indicating a strong focus on this area despite potential fluctuations [10] - The market may see a transition in style as it approaches a clearer economic recovery phase, with a focus on cyclical and consumer sectors [11]