1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region led to the withdrawal of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, and Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and was expected to do the same in December. Since September, OPEC+ net crude oil exports increased significantly, and Russian crude oil exports also rose. Global floating storage of crude oil increased substantially. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased, and production rose while the number of drilling rigs decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking. Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From October 10 to 16, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $58.90 to $57.46, a decrease of $0.81; Brent crude oil price decreased from $62.73 to $61.06, a decline of $0.85; Oman crude oil price decreased from $62.55 to $62.10 (data on October 16 is missing); SC crude oil price increased by $0.10; domestic gasoline price dropped by $50, and domestic diesel price decreased by $28. Other related products also showed different price changes [3] 3.2 Daily News - Affected by the weakening of Brent crude oil and firm freight rates, the price of Russian Urals crude oil fell below the EU price cap of $47.60 per barrel for the first time. Deutsche Bank believes that the UK economy is losing momentum. The US Treasury Secretary hopes that Japan will stop importing Russian energy. Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports. Trump said that Modi promised that India would stop buying Russian oil, but it would be a process [3][4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending October 10, US crude oil exports increased by 876,000 barrels per day to 4.466 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 700 barrels to 13.636 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.5 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.8%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 400,000 barrels to 408 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 878,000 barrels per day to 5.255 million barrels per day. US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels [4] 3.4 Weekly View - Due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and the trade war, oil prices declined. Crude oil supply continued to increase, and OPEC planned to increase production. Global floating storage of crude oil increased, and refinery profits declined. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]

Core Insights - The latest economic data released by multiple departments indicates a steady improvement in the innovation vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China, with significant growth in various sectors including warehousing, logistics, and consumption [1][3]. Group 1: SME Innovation and Economic Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the overall economic operation of SMEs in China remained stable, with a notable increase in innovation vitality. The value added of industrial SMEs grew by 7.6% year-on-year, outpacing large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [3]. - The "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" SMEs, referred to as "little giant" enterprises, saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase in value added [9]. Group 2: Warehousing and Logistics Activity - In September 2025, China's warehousing business activity showed signs of recovery, with the warehousing index rising to 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new orders index returned to the expansion zone, indicating active demand in the warehousing sector [6]. - A total of 169 new international air cargo routes were opened in the first nine months of 2025, with 17 routes added in September alone, enhancing the connectivity of international air freight [10][12]. Group 3: Consumer Activity During Holidays - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, UnionPay and NetUnion processed over 415 billion payment transactions, an increase of 95.23 billion transactions compared to the previous year. The total transaction amount reached 13.26 trillion yuan, up by 1.86 trillion yuan [15]. - The postal and express delivery industry processed over 72 billion packages during the holiday period, averaging over 9 billion packages per day, reflecting a strong consumer demand [18]. Group 4: Upcoming Trade Events - The 138th Canton Fair is scheduled to take place from October 15 to November 4, 2025, in Guangzhou, featuring a record total of 74,600 exhibition booths and over 32,000 participating enterprises, with more than 3,600 companies making their debut [18].

Group 1: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - The overall economic operation of SMEs in China has remained stable in the first eight months of the year, with significant improvement in innovation vitality [1] - The added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 7.6% year-on-year, outpacing large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [1] - Specialized and innovative SMEs, referred to as "little giants," saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase in added value [1] - The export index for SMEs stood at 51.9% in August, indicating continuous expansion for 17 months [1] Group 2: Logistics and Warehousing - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported a rise in the warehousing index to 49.6% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone, reflecting increased demand for warehousing services as seasonal factors improved [5] - Various sectors, including non-ferrous metals, mineral products, and pharmaceuticals, showed new orders in the expansion zone [5] Group 3: International Air Cargo - In September, 17 new international air cargo routes were opened, contributing to a total of 169 routes established in the first nine months of the year [6] - The route structure includes 81 routes to Asia, 66 to Europe, 15 to North America, 3 to Oceania, 2 to South America, and 2 to Africa [6] - The cargo structure primarily consists of cross-border e-commerce goods, high-end manufacturing products, high-value goods, auto parts, machinery, and fresh produce [6] Group 4: Payment Transactions and Express Delivery - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, UnionPay and NetLink processed 415.52 billion payment transactions, an increase of 95.23 billion compared to the previous year [9] - The total transaction amount reached 13.26 trillion yuan, up by 1.86 trillion yuan from the last holiday [9] - The postal express industry handled 72.31 billion packages during the same holiday period, averaging over 9 billion packages per day [13] - Express companies are actively exploring new scenarios combining express delivery with cultural tourism to convert travel flow into consumption growth [13]

Core Insights - The warehouse index in China for September 2025 is reported at 49.6%, showing a slight recovery of 0.3 percentage points from August [1] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 51%, indicating a rebound in warehouse business activities due to the reduction of weather-related factors and the arrival of the traditional peak season [1] - The end-of-period inventory index fell to 47.9%, suggesting that the industry is still in a destocking cycle with cautious inventory replenishment by enterprises [1] Industry Performance - The employee index increased to 52%, up by 3.6 percentage points from August, reflecting improved confidence among enterprises [2] - The business activity expectation index stands at 54.5%, indicating a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from August but remains in the expansion zone [2] - The average warehouse index for the third quarter was 49.7%, down by 1 percentage point from the second quarter but up by 0.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year, demonstrating resilience against short-term shocks [2] Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism for the fourth quarter, citing good enterprise confidence and a relatively positive outlook for future business activities [2] - A series of economic stabilization and growth-promoting policies are expected to continue to enhance economic momentum, including new fiscal incentives and infrastructure projects [2] - Seasonal factors such as holidays and promotional periods are anticipated to further boost demand for warehouse services, leading to a stable growth trajectory for the industry [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese warehousing industry showed signs of recovery in September 2023, with the warehousing index rising to 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The new orders index and employee index increased by 1.5 percentage points and 3.6 percentage points, respectively, indicating a positive trend in business activity [1] - Despite the recovery, the end-of-period inventory index fell below 50%, suggesting that the industry is still in a destocking phase with cautious inventory replenishment [1] Group 1 - The warehousing index for September 2023 is 49.6%, reflecting a slight recovery in warehousing activities [1] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone, indicating improved business activity due to reduced weather impacts and the arrival of the traditional peak season [1] - The average warehousing index for the third quarter was 49.7%, showing a 0.9 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year, highlighting the industry's resilience against short-term shocks [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, business confidence is strong, with the business activity expectation index at 54.5%, remaining in the expansion zone [2] - The employee index rose to 52%, indicating increased optimism among businesses regarding future prospects [2] - Various economic stabilization policies, including new fiscal subsidies, are expected to boost economic activity and drive demand for warehousing services in the upcoming months [2]

Group 1: Warehouse Index and Business Activity - In September, China's warehouse index rose to 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in warehouse business activities [3][5] - The new orders index reached 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from last month, signaling a strong demand for warehouse services, particularly in non-ferrous metals, mineral products, and pharmaceuticals [5] - The facility utilization rate index stood at 51%, with high utilization rates observed in steel, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and cotton [5] Group 2: International Air Cargo Routes - As of September 30, 2025, a total of 169 new international air cargo routes have been opened in China, with 17 routes added in September alone, resulting in over 46 round-trip flights per week [6][9][12] - The route structure includes 81 routes to Asia, 66 to Europe, 15 to North America, 3 to Oceania, 2 to South America, and 2 to Africa [11] Group 3: Software and Information Technology Sector - In the first eight months of 2025, software business revenue reached 96,409 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.6%, with total profits increasing by 13% [16] - Software exports amounted to 404.4 billion USD, showing a growth of 6.4% [16] - The software product revenue accounted for 21.9% of the total industry revenue, while information technology services contributed nearly 70% [18] Group 4: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - In the first eight months of 2025, the added value of industrial SMEs grew by 7.6%, outpacing large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points, particularly in specialized and innovative SMEs [21] - The export index for SMEs was 51.9% in August, indicating continuous expansion for 17 months [23] - SMEs are increasingly focusing on innovation, with R&D expenses for specialized "little giant" enterprises accounting for 5.4% of their revenue [25]

Group 1: Cloud Warehouse Market in China - The cloud warehouse market in China shows significant regional development differences influenced by economic levels, industrial structures, and infrastructure conditions [1] - The national high-standard warehouse stock reaches 168 million square meters, primarily concentrated in the eastern coastal regions, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong having the highest stock [1] - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster has a vacancy rate of 28.56% and a rental price of 21.91 yuan per square meter per month, facing dual pressures of inventory and insufficient demand [1] - The Yangtze River Delta city cluster has a vacancy rate of 25.42% and effective rent of 25.71 yuan per square meter per month, benefiting from rental price reductions [1] - The Pearl River Delta city cluster stands out with a low vacancy rate of 6.12% and effective rent of 35.24 yuan per square meter per month, but may face future de-stocking pressure due to high supply [1] - The Central Yangtze River and Chengdu-Chongqing city clusters have lower vacancy rates of 13.33% and 8.91%, respectively, with relatively low rental levels [1] Group 2: Global Cloud Warehouse Market - The global cloud warehouse market exhibits clear regional differentiation, with North America and Europe having high maturity levels, led by companies like Amazon FBA and SAP [2] - The Asia-Pacific market is characterized by an "China technology + local infrastructure" model due to the e-commerce boom, with 60% of cloud warehouse solutions in Southeast Asia provided by Chinese companies [2] - The African region is still exploring digitalization, with Kenya's Jumia improving inventory turnover by 60% after adopting Alibaba's cloud warehouse management system, but facing limitations due to insufficient electricity infrastructure and low automation equipment penetration below 10% [2] - These regional differences provide diverse options for companies to adopt differentiated cloud warehouse strategies based on business layout and market demand [2]

Economic Growth - South Africa's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q2 2025, marking the strongest growth quarter in nearly two years, indicating robust economic momentum [1][5] - The growth follows a slight increase of 0.1% in Q1 2025, demonstrating a continuation of positive economic trends [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and trade led the supply-side growth, while household consumption and reduced imports contributed to demand-side growth [2] - Manufacturing output increased by 1.8%, driven by the automotive, petroleum, chemicals, rubber, and plastics sectors [2] - Mining output rose by 3.7%, the fastest growth since Q1 2021, with platinum group metals, gold, and chrome contributing significantly [2] - The trade, accommodation, and food services sectors grew by 1.7%, reaching the highest level since Q1 2022 [2] - Agriculture continued its positive trend with a third consecutive quarter of growth, supported by increased horticultural and livestock activities [2] Consumer Activity - Household consumption has shown consistent growth for five consecutive quarters, with a 0.8% increase in Q2 2025, fueled by spending in dining, hospitality, clothing, and insurance [2][4] - The retail trade, automotive trade, and food and beverage sectors also experienced growth, contributing positively to the overall economic performance [4] Challenges and Declines - Despite the overall growth, there were declines in demand for alcoholic beverages and housing-related services, as well as a drop in wholesale trade [3] - The construction sector contracted for the third consecutive quarter, with a decline of 0.3%, and transportation, storage, and communication sectors also saw a decrease of 0.8% [3] - Fixed capital investment fell by 1.4%, marking a third consecutive quarter of decline [3] Government Response and Outlook - The South African government views the Q2 2025 economic data as a sign of resilience amid global trade challenges, emphasizing the effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating growth and supporting local industries [4][5] - Economic analysts predict a moderate acceleration in South Africa's economy, despite the low growth rate, indicating an overall improving trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - A new company named Qinghai Qinggan Chuan Land Port Base Ecological Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB, focusing on various agricultural and food-related services [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Liu Xinyu [1] - The registered capital of the company is 500,000 RMB [1] Business Scope - The company’s business activities include livestock sales, poultry acquisition, retail of edible agricultural products, wholesale and retail of fresh meat, and internet sales of pre-packaged food [1] - Additional services include catering management, personal internet live streaming, general cargo warehousing (excluding hazardous chemicals), and primary processing of agricultural products [1] - The company is also involved in the production, sales, processing, transportation, storage, and other related services of agricultural products [1] - Other activities include the purchase and sale of traditional Chinese medicine (excluding Chinese medicine pieces), sales of agricultural by-products, vegetable planting (excluding rare and precious varieties), grass planting, and flower planting [1] Licensing and Permits - The company is authorized to engage in various licensed activities such as livestock breeding, food management, food production, grain processing, and accommodation services [1] - Specific projects require approval from relevant authorities before operations can commence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Warehousing Index fell to 49.3% in August 2025, indicating a contraction in the warehousing sector due to extreme weather and seasonal demand fluctuations for certain commodities [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Warehousing Index dropped by 0.8 percentage points from July, marking a return to the contraction zone after nine months of expansion [1] - The New Orders Index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from July, with mixed performance across different commodities [1] - The Ending Inventory Index remained stable at 50%, but decreased by 1 percentage point from July [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Chain Dynamics - The average inventory turnover index and business activity expectation index increased by 0.4 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points, respectively, indicating a potential recovery in market demand [2] - Despite the decline in new orders, ending inventory, and employee indices, the average inventory turnover index remains below 50, reflecting a sluggish warehousing demand and slower supply chain turnover [2] - Analysts expect that with the end of extreme weather and upcoming holidays, there may be a release of pent-up demand in the warehousing sector, leading to a more stable and positive operational trend [2]