每经记者｜金喆 每经编辑｜陈俊杰 2026年，我国创新药出海延续高景气度，最近两天先为达、前沿生物及和铂医药接连达成三笔BD（商 务拓展）交易。 医药魔方NextPharma数据库显示，截至2月15日（春节假期期间暂未新增交易事件），中国创新药已发 生39起license-out（对外授权）交易事件，首付款约29.53亿美元，总金额超490亿美元。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，这一金额已超过 2025年全年总额的1/3，中国创新药的全球价值正快速 兑现。与此同时，国际顶级投行摩根士丹利（大摩）也在近期发布报告，明确看多中国医药行业长期创 新能力，行业分化与全球化成为核心关键词。大摩持续看好中国创新药 在这份报告中，摩根士丹利提炼的关键词是"催化"。报告提到，根据管理层表述，2026年1月行业会议 后，中国本土医药资产的对外授权合作交易热度依旧高涨。此外，合作方对现有合作的执行情况及期权 行使行为，是评估资产质量和全球化价值的关键——2026年将迎来大量催化因素。 医药魔方NextPharma数据库显示，2025年中国创新药BD总金额达1357亿美元，首次超过美国。2026年 增长势头更猛，前49天交易规模已超 ...

医药深度复盘+最新观点 春节期间，医药重要事件梳理 20260223 中国创新药对外授权 BD 交易活跃，截至 2 月 15 日，总首付款金额已达 30 亿美元，总体量 490 亿美元，远超 2025 年同期水平，预示 2026 年 BD 交易将大幅跃升。石药集团与阿斯利康合作金额高达 185 亿美元， 为近年来新高。 中国药企海外研发取得进展，如石药集团 PCSK9 小核酸新药 SYH2053 启动三期试验，科伦博泰卢康沙妥珠单抗启动全球临床试验，翰森制药 阿美替尼获欧盟批准，石药集团长效 GLP1/GIP 双抗 SYH2,082 获 FDA 批准 IND。 医改政策方面，《基要目录管理办法》修订强调与集采、医保衔接，原 则上每三年调整一次，集采纳入基要目录节奏或加快。已完成的集采政 策导向更温和，注重质量和反内卷，中选率达 93%，对市场结构影响较 小。 药品集采续约注重临床需求匹配度和投标供应商质量，覆盖率达 98%， 调整较小，趋向理性。续约采用询价方式，控制价格风险，符合反内卷 导向。前沿生物与 GSK 达成小核酸 BD 合作，首付款 4,000 万美元，里 程碑付款 9.63 亿美元，验证了早期研 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a positive start to the Year of the Horse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.36% on February 24 [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.82%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 2.13% on the same day [2] - As of February 24, there were 8 A+H listed companies experiencing an AH price inversion, where H-share prices exceeded A-share prices, representing approximately 4.6% of the total 174 A+H listed companies [3] Group 2 - The companies with AH price inversion include leading firms across various sectors such as new energy, banking, innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, home appliances, mining, and machinery [4] - The phenomenon of AH price inversion is relatively rare, with no companies experiencing it a year ago on February 24, 2025 [2][4] - The average AH premium rate is typically around 125%, considering the 20% dividend tax on H-shares and the tax exemption for A-shares held for over a year [5] Group 3 - On February 24, the trading volume of A-shares for China Merchants Bank was 75.47 million shares, which is 7.7 times that of its H-shares at 9.8 million shares [5] - The market capitalization of China Merchants Bank is approximately 1.005 trillion yuan, with an AH premium rate of 0.89, indicating an 11% discount of A-shares relative to H-shares [5] - CATL, another leading company, saw its A-shares decline by 0.93% while H-shares fell by 3.13%, with A-share trading volume being 12.5 times that of H-shares [6] Group 4 - The AH premium index closed at 116.99 on February 24, indicating that A-shares are trading at a premium to H-shares, and this index has been on a downward trend since April 9, 2025 [11] - The index has dropped from a high of 144.85 to a low of 113.56, marking an eight-year low [11] - Analysts suggest that the recent trend of foreign capital favoring Hong Kong stocks may be influenced by the appreciation of the yuan, which could lead to a convergence of AH premiums [13] Group 5 - Morgan Stanley highlighted investment opportunities in sectors such as technology and cyclical recovery, particularly in leading companies within these fields [13] - Tianfeng Securities expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong market, suggesting a focus on value-oriented investments while maintaining growth as a secondary consideration [13]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index fell by 3.7%, while the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index decreased by 3.1% [1] - The total value of China’s innovative drug License-out transactions grew from $2.562 billion in 2017 to $140.274 billion by 2025, indicating enhanced international competitiveness [1] - Over 70% of innovative drug companies are expected to achieve positive revenue growth by 2025, marking a transition into a commercialization phase for the industry [1] Group 2 - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is considered attractive, with a recommendation to focus on companies with clear overseas expansion opportunities and those with clinical data advantages in specific segments [1] - The ETF tracking the CSI Biotechnology Theme Index, managed by E Fund, has seen a decline of 0.3% [4] - The ETF tracking the CSI Pharmaceutical and Health Index, also managed by E Fund, has similarly decreased by 0.3% [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline in major tech stocks, with Tencent Holdings and Meituan dropping over 3%, while Alibaba, Baidu Group, and Xiaomi Group fell by 2% [1] - Southbound capital saw a reversal from net outflow to net inflow, with a rapid net inflow of HKD 3.1 billion in the last half hour before the market closed [1] - Significant buying activity was observed in the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180.SH) and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), with over HKD 1 billion in large orders during a sharp intraday drop, indicating potential bullish sentiment towards Hong Kong tech assets [1] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in Hong Kong tech-related ETFs, including the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180.SH), Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) [2] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH) focuses on major Hong Kong internet giants such as Alibaba, Baidu Group, Tencent Holdings, and NetEase, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) also includes leading innovative pharmaceutical companies [2] - These ETFs are listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, allowing A-share investors to trade flexibly with low entry barriers and without the need for cross-border accounts or currency exchange [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is transitioning from "catching up" to "keeping pace" and even "leading" on a global scale, with a significant increase in business development (BD) transactions indicating enhanced international competitiveness [2][11][12] - The trend of BD transactions is accelerating, with record-breaking transaction sizes and optimized structures, marking a shift from single product licensing to platform-based and systematic collaborations [2][11] - The demand for Chinese innovative assets from global pharmaceutical companies is increasing due to challenges such as patent cliffs and declining R&D returns, creating a supportive environment for the high activity in the BD market [12] Recent Market Performance and BD Transaction Analysis - In January 2026, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 2.97% compared to the index's 1.65% increase, reflecting a revaluation of the innovative drug industry [14] - A notable BD transaction occurred on January 30, 2026, when CSPC Pharmaceutical Group signed a collaboration and licensing agreement with AstraZeneca, involving a $1.2 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to $35 billion for development and $138 billion for sales [15][16] - This transaction exemplifies a platform-based approach, including not only the clinical-stage product SYH2082 but also three preclinical products and four new collaboration projects leveraging CSPC's proprietary technologies [15][16] Potential BD Target Value Identification and Screening Logic - Identifying potential BD targets should focus on differentiated technological barriers, such as the proprietary ADC technology of Kelun-Biotech, which has shown promising clinical data for international licensing [19] - The quality of proof of concept (POC) data is crucial, as seen with Innovent Biologics' IBI363, which has demonstrated efficacy in challenging tumor types, indicating significant commercial potential [19][20] - Global clinical demand and competitive landscape for indications are important, with companies like 3SBio and Diligent Pharma showing strong potential in weight management and oncology, respectively, enhancing their market entry opportunities [20] Conclusion - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is entering an "Innovation 3.0 era," characterized by a shift from single product licensing to systematic technology platform outputs and deep strategic alliances [21] - The current high activity in BD transactions reflects the industry's strengthening capabilities and serves as a catalyst for value reassessment, positioning companies with technological advantages and high-quality clinical data for significant roles in the global pharmaceutical landscape [21]

截至11:07，港股通创新药ETF(159570)标的指数热门股多数回调：石药集团、中国生物制药、三生制药、翰森制药、荣昌生物跌超5%，信达生物跌超4%， 康方生物跌超3%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 估算板車 | 涨跌幅 | 17.47 80 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1801 | 信达生物 | 10.51% | -0.56% | 6.81亿 | | 2 | 1093 | 石药集团 | 12.18% | -3.15% | 5.98 7. | | 3 | 6160 | 高密被田 | 10.99% | -1.13% | 2.83 Z | | 4 | 1530 | 三生制药 | 6.50% | -2.57% | 2.65 Z | | 5 | 9926 | 康方生物 | 8.49% | -1.33% | 2.57 Z | | 6 | 3692 | 翰森制药 | 6.84% | -1.84% | 1.99 Z | | 7 | 1177 | 中国生物制药 | 10.01% | -3.66% | 1.74Z | | 8 | 6990 | 科伦博 ...

刘刚认为，短期看，市场或有超调，回撤后短期可能存在向上修复空间。中期看，基准情形下，我们判 断港股盈利增长3%~4%与景气结构主线情绪修复，或推动恒指中枢上行至28000~29000点左右。 2月24日，为港股市场马年第三个交易日，恒生科技指数开盘重回跌势，指数权重股腾讯控股、阿里巴 巴、百度集团、华虹半导体等股价再度调整。 自2月以来，港股尤其是恒生科技指数，走势较弱，源自三方面的变化：（1）基本面偏弱、市场担忧流 动性收紧；（2）投资者重新评估AI资本开支叙事逻辑；（3）权重股（腾讯、阿里巴巴等）短期因AI 应用现金补贴遭遇"逆风"，拖累科技板块表现。 展望港股后市，中金公司（601995）研究部董事总经理、首席海外与港股策略分析师刘刚表示，"信用 周期决定指数空间，产业趋势决定结构强弱，流动性放大波动"。 招商证券策略研究团队表示，"春节后，随着南下资金的流入，也将为港股带来流动性支持。结构上， 推荐科技（AI算力与应用）、非银（保险）与红利。"其中，恒生科技的估值底和政策底逐步夯实，但 盈利底和流动性拐点仍需确认，重点关注未来市场对恒生科技盈利预期的修正，以及美联储政策预期变 化对恒生科技的催化。一旦 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for humanoid robots, AI applications, innovative drugs, and new consumption sectors [5][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth potential in humanoid robots, with a projected shipment of nearly 18,000 units globally by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 508% [5]. - AI applications are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's initiative to build a national computing network [5]. - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a shift towards platform capabilities, as evidenced by a significant partnership between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, valued at over $8 billion [9]. - New consumption trends are emerging, with adjustments in CPI statistics reflecting the inclusion of new categories such as dishwashers and medical beauty services [5]. Summary by Category Humanoid Robots - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Medium, stable growth anticipated - Key Data: IDC forecasts a shipment of nearly 18,000 humanoid robots by 2025, a 508% increase year-on-year [5]. AI Applications - Rating: Neutral + Overweight - Technical Indicators: Weak, but stabilizing - Growth Expectation: Medium, slight downward adjustment expected - Key Data: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated the construction of a national computing network [5]. Innovative Drugs - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Low, upward revision expected - Key Data: Significant partnership between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, valued at over $8 billion, marks a new phase in China's innovative drug export strategy [9]. New Consumption - Rating: Overweight - Technical Indicators: Strong - Growth Expectation: Low, stable growth anticipated - Key Data: CPI adjustments include new consumption categories, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [5].

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月23日 [关注节后商品补库存行情，持续看好科 Table_NewTitle] 技应用方向不变 ——资产配置周报（2026/02/16-2026/02/20） [table_main] 投资要点 略 研 究 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 策 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。春节假期期间，全球股市多数收涨，美国最高法院裁定特朗普贸易关 税非法提振风险偏好；主要商品期货中原油、黄金、铜、铝均上涨；美元指数上涨，离岸 ...