Domestic Macro - In October, major economic indicators showed a decline, with industrial, consumption, and investment growth rates slowing compared to September. The high base from last year's policy stimulus and the misalignment of holidays contributed to short-term disturbances, indicating insufficient domestic demand and external pressure that require policy support [1][7] - The industrial added value in October grew by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month, while from January to October, it increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Real estate development investment from January to October was 73,563 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year [7] Foreign Macro - Overseas markets continued to experience fluctuations, particularly in US tech stocks, which affected sentiment in the A-share market. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.45% [8] - Several factors contributed to the ongoing adjustment in US stocks, including the absence of key economic data during the government shutdown, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, and concerns over the sustainability of debt financing for AI giants [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable period despite some pressure on the fundamentals. The central bank has indicated that during this critical economic transition, it is not advisable to overly focus on total data changes [10][15] - The overall liquidity in the market is anticipated to stay relatively loose in the medium term, with the bond market likely to continue benefiting from this environment [15] Equity Market - The market is entering a period of total policy and profit vacuum, with accelerated rotation in the tech sector and increased highlights in low-position consumption and dividends. The high-yield, risk-free financial assets are diminishing, and the influx of new capital is far from over [20] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.40%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.01% last week, with 20 out of 31 industries showing gains [16][20] Investment Strategy - Emerging technology is expected to be a main focus, with cyclical consumption looking towards transformation. Attention should be given to sectors that have experienced prolonged corrections and significant adjustments [21][22] - Specific directions include technology growth, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption, and financial sectors, with a focus on areas such as internet, robotics, semiconductor, and consumer electronics [22]

文 / 张向东 2025年11月13日，A股三大指数盘中集体上涨，超3900只股票飘红，上证指数最高至4030点，再 创十年来新高。 此时，距离今年10月28日上证指数首次突破4000点，仅过去半个月。 一年时间里，A股实现了从3000点到4000点两个台阶的跨越。创新药、人工智能及算力、储能及高 端制造板块，表现优异。股市赚钱效应正在形成。 是什么因素在一年时间里改变了中国股市的叙事逻辑？接下来，股市将如何演变？ 国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年10月，CPI同比上涨0.2%，而上月则是下降0.3%；10月PPI环比 上涨0.1%，年内首次环比上涨，同比降幅连续第3个月收窄。 这些微小的数据变化，暗示着中国经济巨大肌体的逐渐改善，也意味着市场预期的艰难回稳。 但问题依然存在，矛盾仍未解决。11月14日，国家统计局对外称，市场需求拉动仍显不足，价格总 体低位运行。下阶段要继续扩大国内需求，改善供求关系，促进价格合理回升。 以下为对话内容（ 有删减，共约10500字）： 和讯网：对2026年人民币走势，你有何预测？人民币破7的概率大吗？ 管涛： 无论从理论上，还是从市场表现来看，目前都还看不到人民币汇率有升值压力 ...

Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has gained market attention since May due to dual drivers of policy and industry, with the completion of the 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug Directory negotiations and the introduction of the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory opening new payment pathways for high-priced innovative drugs [1] - The shift in China's innovative drug export model from "license-out" to "global MNC-led development" is prompting a deeper focus on clinical validation and global collaboration rather than just business development expectations [1] - The innovative drug sector experienced its first mid-term correction in October, attributed to previous rapid gains and a shift of active funds to other sectors, but signs of capital return were noted towards the end of October [1][2] Market Performance - Approximately 90% of actively managed pharmaceutical funds are concentrated in the innovative drug and CXO sectors, indicating a significant compression of allocations to other pharmaceutical sub-sectors [2] - From September to mid-October, the AI-related sector saw a 30% increase, while the innovative drug sector declined over 20%, widening the performance gap to 50-60 percentage points [2] - With the end of the third-quarter report disclosures and the arrival of an earnings vacuum period, the innovative drug sector is expected to regain attention due to its high industry prosperity [2] Future Drivers - The current innovative drug market is primarily driven by capital rather than short-term fundamentals, with a strong industry performance in October not translating into stock price increases due to reduced capital [3] - Long-term fundamentals and industry trends remain the core support for the sector, with a 20% correction from September highs indicating that valuations are now at relatively cheap levels [3] - The next few years are expected to see more significant licensing transactions between Chinese companies and multinational pharmaceutical companies, with increased international market validation of products [3] Sector Focus - The innovative drug sector can be categorized into four main therapeutic areas: oncology, metabolic diseases, autoimmune diseases, and neurological and cardiovascular diseases, with oncology currently leading in licensing transactions [6][7] - The metabolic field, particularly weight loss drugs, is highlighted as a significant market, while autoimmune diseases represent a strong commercial model for chronic conditions [7] - The neurological and cardiovascular sectors are emerging as important innovative directions, particularly for aging-related chronic diseases [7] Investment Considerations - The medical device sector is viewed as a good long-term investment, requiring companies to establish overseas channels independently, unlike the innovative drug sector which can leverage multinational partnerships for quicker international expansion [8] - The Chinese traditional medicine industry is expected to face increased market competition post-2024, following a period of special policy protection, which may test its resilience [9] - AI in healthcare is seen as a promising area, with potential applications in medical devices leading the way, although direct consumer applications may take longer to develop [10][11] Market Dynamics - The differences between A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in terms of liquidity and investment characteristics have diminished, with both markets currently exhibiting strong liquidity [12] - Key factors for future investment strategies include valuation levels, industry trends, and overall market conditions, with current valuations in the innovative drug sector considered relatively cheap [12][13] - The industry trend is strong, but historical patterns suggest that market performance may outpace actual developments, leading to potential bubble risks [13]

| 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | - 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159608.SZ | 稀有金属ETF | 1.042 | 3.68% | | 562800.SH | 稀有金属ETF | 0.907 | 3.66% | | 561800.SH | 稀有金属ETF基金 | 0.963 | 3.22% | | 159671.SZ | 稀有金属ETF基金 | 1.265 | 3.18% | | 561010.SH | 软件ETF基金 | | 1.164 2.56% | | 159586.SZ | 计算机ETF南方 | 1.354 | 2.42% | | 159590.SZ | 软件50ETF | 1.156 | 2.3% | | 159824.SZ | 新能车ETF | 1.312 | 2.26% | | 159382.SZ | 创业板人工智能ETF南方 1.791 | | 2.23% | 市场弱势震荡，沪指低开低走，深成指、创业板指尾盘跌幅有所收窄。盘面上，热点快速轮动，锂电池产业链集体爆发，福建板块延续强势，AI应用概念 快速走强，军工板块表现活跃。下跌方面，医药概念集 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including Junshi Biosciences, Hualing Pharmaceutical-B, Aorite, and others [1]. Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a 3.29% increase this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.37 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as pharmaceutical commerce, pharmacies, and innovative drugs performed well, while medical devices and consumables lagged [2][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of market pricing power and the impact of liquidity and risk appetite on investment strategies, particularly in innovative drugs and related supply chains [2][12]. - The report highlights the upcoming patent expirations for small molecule drugs, which are expected to create significant demand for raw materials, with a projected sales impact of $390 billion from 2025 to 2030 [3][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance this week was characterized by a 3.29% increase, with notable performances in pharmaceutical commerce (+7.31%), pharmacies (+6.83%), and innovative drugs (+5.01%). In contrast, medical devices (0.16%) and new medical infrastructure (1.18%) showed weaker performance [17][29]. - The overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the pharmaceutical industry is reported at 30.84 times, with a premium of 25.08% compared to the overall A-share market excluding the financial sector [33]. Company Dynamics - Notable company announcements include: - Prologis Pharmaceuticals received a European certificate for its product, enhancing its international market prospects [18]. - Jianyou Co. announced FDA approval for its production site, expanding its manufacturing capabilities [19]. - Fuyuan Pharmaceuticals received a drug registration certificate from the National Medical Products Administration, allowing for the marketing of its product [20]. - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from domestic innovative drug support policies, such as Yangguang Nuohuo and Nuosige, as well as those with strong overseas business prospects [15][7]. Raw Materials - The report indicates that the raw materials sector is expected to see a significant increase in demand due to patent expirations, with a projected sales impact of $390 billion from 2025 to 2030. The production of raw materials in H1 2025 reached 1.935 million tons, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [3][13]. - Companies recommended for attention in the raw materials sector include Aorite, Prologis Pharmaceuticals, and Aoxiang Pharmaceuticals, focusing on innovation and strong performance [3][16].

市场应该是从六月份开始走出了所谓的"慢牛"行情，一路走到现在，4000点都到了。回头再去看六月份 行情启动时，不少机构投资者及个人投资者都不相信慢牛行情已经开启，但我们当时的态度还是比较坚 定，这在我们过往的言论中也能看到。后来我们做了一份材料，向大家说明慢牛有可能能够实现的原 因，并从基本面、资金面、政策面及情绪面等多个角度进行了一些分析。 当时基本面呈现出一个有意思的现象，有很多机构投资者不相信六月份以来的行情是慢牛，这与基本面 相关。我们上半年GDP增速已经实现了5.3%，那么如果全年GDP的KPI是5%，那么下半年只需完成 4.7%至4.8%的增速其实就可以完成任务了。所以大家的预期是下半年盈利增速会往下走的，进而认 为"基本面下行的情况下，为什么会有慢牛诞生？"，这也是当时比较多的机构投资者觉得慢牛这件事情 要打个问号的重要原因。 但我们反复强调，股市它不是只由基本面决定的，还有资金面、情绪面、政策面这些情况。 我们先来看资金面，资金面虽然没有出现大水漫灌的情况，但整体资金并不紧张。此外，美联储自特朗 普上台后便一直被要求降息，并且今年九月份已经兑现一次降息；不过十二月份的降息暂时还看不到， 因为鲍 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% to close at 3972.03, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.11% at 13202.00, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.20% to 3105.20 [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 19,303 billion, a decrease of 501 billion from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The military, energy metals, and Fujian sectors showed gains, while precious metals and photovoltaic sectors underwent adjustments [1] - The rare metals sector led the gains, with ETFs such as the Jiashi Fund Rare Metals ETF and the Guangfa Fund Rare Metals ETF both rising by 3.6% [3] - The software sector also performed well, with the Huazhang Fund Software ETF and the Southern Computer ETF increasing by 2.56% and 2.42%, respectively [3] - AI hardware stocks rebounded, with various AI ETFs rising by 2.2% [3] - Conversely, the innovative drug sector declined, with the Guotai and Huitianfu ETFs dropping by 2.7% and 2.58% [3] - Gold stocks experienced a broad pullback, with gold stock ETFs falling by 2.57% and 2.4% [3]

恒生港股通创新药指数是ETF跟踪的指数中首批"纯度"达100%的创新药指数，精准汇聚港股创新药领军 企业；中证创新药产业指数则聚焦于A股创新药赛道，由不超过50家主营业务涵盖创新药研发的龙头公 司组成，在当前政策与产业趋势双重利好下，指数成分股有望持续受益于行业高质量发展。 近期创新药板块资金布局意愿强烈，11月以来，全市场创新药相关ETF合计净流入超80亿元，一定程度 上反映出市场对板块投资价值的青睐。 政策面上，首版"商保创新药目录"将于12月初正式发布，为创新药支付开辟了重要渠道；产业层面，中 国创新药"出海"势头迅猛，2025年1-10月License-out总金额已突破千亿美元，同比增速超190%，交易覆 盖了ADC、双抗等多个前沿技术领域。 分析指出，中国在全球创新药BD交易中的项目数占比已从2019年的3%跃升至2024年的13%，金额占比 从1%提升至28%，显示了中国创新药企强劲的全球竞争力。 恒生创新药ETF（159316）与创新药ETF易方达（516080）分别跟踪上述指数，为投资者提供了便捷布 局前沿创新药企业的工具。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

盘面上，能源金属、兵装重组概念、数字水印板块涨幅居前，贵金属、生物制品、医药商业板块跌幅居前。 11月17日消息，市场震荡调整，三大指数尾盘拉升跌幅收窄。板块方面，临近尾盘CPO概念震荡反弹，腾景科技20cm涨 停，德科立、长芯博创、光库科技、中际旭创涨幅靠前；华为算力概念全天强势，中孚信息、博睿数据20cm涨停；AI应用端 活跃，三六零、宣亚国际、航天发展等多股涨停；下跌方面，贵金属板块全天调整，招金黄金跌幅居前；创新药板块大面积飘 绿，科兴制药跌幅居前。总体来看，个股跌多涨少，下跌个股超2700只。 截至收盘，沪指报3972.03点，跌0.46%；深成指报13202.00点，跌0.11%；创指报3105.20点，跌0.20%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [31] Core Insights - The acquisition of Crown Bioscience International by the report's subject company,艾迪康, for a base consideration of $204 million (approximately 1.48 billion RMB), marks a strategic shift from clinical testing services to drug development, aligning with the trend of collaborative development in precision medicine [3][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of CROs possessing translational medicine capabilities to facilitate the rapid transition from preclinical biomarkers to clinical trials and diagnostic processes [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview -艾迪康 announced the acquisition of Crown Bioscience International, a global CRO focused on oncology and immuno-oncology drug discovery and development, with the transaction expected to complete by mid-2026 [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with rich pipeline layouts, such as 恒瑞医药, 百济神州, and 中国生物制药, as well as companies with significant single-product potential like 一品红 and 三生制药 [5] - It also highlights the importance of companies with leading positions in cutting-edge technology platforms, such as 东诚药业 and 远大医药, and suggests monitoring the CXO sector for stable growth in R&D investment [5] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 3.29% increase last week, ranking 4th among 28 industries, while the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector rose by 6.80%, ranking 2nd among 11 industries [7][30] - The report notes that the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at 30.89 times (TTM), with a premium of 22.29% over the overall A-shares [23]