Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed major global markets since 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both showing over 21% cumulative gains as of June 11, 2023 [1] - The net inflow of southbound funds has exceeded 670 billion HKD this year, setting a historical record for the same period, significantly boosting the market's performance [1] - Nearly 80% of the stocks in the Hang Seng Index have risen, with BYD leading the charge with over 60% growth [1] Sector Performance - The healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors have led the market, with gains of 50.54%, 36.41%, and 28.32% respectively [1] - The financial and discretionary consumer sectors have also recorded gains exceeding 22% [1] Investment Outlook - Analysts from CICC highlight structural advantages in the Chinese macro and market environment, such as stable dividend returns and growth lines in new consumption, AI technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, making Hong Kong stocks more attractive compared to other markets [3] - Multiple brokerage firms maintain an optimistic outlook for the second half of the year, with expectations of a rebound in valuations and earnings in the fourth quarter [3] - Predictions suggest that southbound capital inflows could reach between 200 billion to 300 billion HKD in the second half, with total annual inflows potentially exceeding 1 trillion HKD [3] Investment Recommendations - CICC recommends focusing on stable returns (like deposits, government bonds, and dividend assets) and growth returns (such as technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals) [4] - Huatai Securities identifies consumption and technology as key investment themes, favoring internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and hard tech sectors [4] - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is showing signs of recovery, with opportunities in the brokerage sector due to increased demand for cross-border wealth management [4]

港股市场策略周报 2025.6.2-2025.6.8 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： l 港股市场宏观环境： l 港股市场展望： 2 n 本周中美关税摩擦继续缓和，结合政策加力的预期，港股市场本周迎来反弹，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +2.20%/+2.16%/+2.25%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，原材料业涨幅排在第一，周涨幅超5.5%；医疗 保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超4.0%，排在第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至72.3%，估值水平略超5年均值。 n 基本面：央行本周打破惯例，在6月初首次开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放明确宽松信号。 n 资金面：5月美国非农虽较上月走弱，但超市场预期，就业市场仍有韧性，市场对于美联储降息的预期继续承压。 n 基本面：经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举；政策面： 货币政策持续宽松加 ...

Group 1: Overview of Overseas Business in US Stocks - Approximately 30% of revenue for S&P 500 companies comes from overseas, while small companies (represented by Russell 2000) have about 20%[2] - Technology (51%), materials (38%), healthcare (35%), and communications (34%) have the highest exposure to overseas business[2] - S&P 500 companies generally have a higher overseas revenue share and profit margins compared to domestic operations, with Apple having 57% of its revenue from overseas and a profit margin of 42%[2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The technology sector has the largest overseas revenue share, exceeding 50%, while materials, healthcare, and communications also show significant overseas revenue contributions[4] - Major companies in the technology sector, such as Apple (57%) and Nvidia (56%), have overseas revenue shares above the industry average of 51%[5] - In the communications sector, companies like Alphabet (46%) and Meta (56%) also exceed the industry average of 34% for overseas revenue[5] Group 3: Growth and Profitability Trends - Non-US revenue growth for S&P 500 companies is generally higher than total revenue growth, indicating a reliance on overseas markets[10] - The communications sector shows the highest growth in overseas revenue, consistently outpacing total revenue growth since 2017[10] - Profit margins for overseas operations in certain sectors, such as consumer staples and technology, are higher than domestic margins, with an average overseas profit margin of 33% for technology[11] Group 4: China Market Dependency - Among S&P 500 companies disclosing Chinese revenue, technology and communications sectors have a higher dependency, with 25% of their revenue coming from China, above the overall average of 17%[4] - Recent trends show that revenue growth from China for these sectors has slowed compared to overall growth, potentially due to US restrictions on technology exports to China[4]

Group 1: Overview of Overseas Business in US Stocks - Approximately 30% of non-US revenue in the S&P 500 index, while small enterprises (represented by Russell 2000) have about 20%[3] - Technology (51%), Materials (38%), Healthcare (35%), and Communications (34%) have the highest overseas revenue exposure[4] - S&P 500 companies generally have higher overseas revenue ratios and profit margins compared to domestic operations, e.g., Apple’s overseas revenue is 57% with a profit margin of 42%[22] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - Technology and Communications sectors account for nearly half of the S&P 500 market capitalization, indicating high reliance on overseas business[4] - Among the top five companies in the S&P 500, over half have overseas business ratios exceeding their industry averages[5] - Asian and European markets contribute significantly to overseas revenue, with Asia at 45% and Europe at 40%[6] Group 3: Growth and Profitability - Non-US revenue growth is generally higher than total revenue growth for S&P 500 companies, indicating a greater reliance on overseas markets[8] - Certain industries, such as Consumer Staples and Technology, show higher profit margins for overseas operations compared to domestic ones, e.g., Consumer Staples at 37%[9] - Companies like Apple and Amazon have overseas profit margins that surpass their domestic margins, highlighting the profitability of international operations[60] Group 4: China Market Dependency - For S&P 500 companies disclosing Chinese business, Technology and Communications sectors have a higher revenue share from China (25.1%) compared to the overall average (16.5%)[64] - Recent trends show that revenue growth from China for these sectors has lagged behind overall growth, possibly due to US restrictions on technology[64]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market shows short-term resilience, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing expectations of 126,000 [1][6][7] - The healthcare sector (+78,000) and leisure and hospitality (+48,000) accounted for 90% of the total job gains, indicating that service consumption is a key support for the U.S. job market [1][7] - The manufacturing, retail trade, and government employment sectors were drag factors in May, with federal government employment turning negative, possibly reflecting the impact of layoffs [1][8] Group 2 - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate (U3) from 4.19% to 4.24% [2][9] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.7%, indicating wage stickiness that may support consumer spending [2][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-on-year increase of 5% in May, although it was lower than the previous value of 5.3% [2][10] Group 3 - The employment diffusion index decreased from 56 to 54.2, indicating a slowdown in job growth breadth, with the manufacturing employment diffusion index dropping to 41.7, the lowest since August 2024 [3][11] - The proportion of full-time employment fell to 49.3%, and the total employment-to-population ratio dropped to 59.7%, the lowest since the pandemic [3][11] - The number of individuals transitioning from employment to non-labor force status rose to 5.41 million, the highest monthly increase, potentially due to federal administrative leave and tightened immigration policies [3][12] Group 4 - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, below the expected 62.6% [3][12] - The labor force participation rate for foreign-born individuals fell from 66.5% to 65.9%, likely related to the U.S. government's termination of Temporary Protection Status for Venezuelan nationals [4][14] - The Supreme Court's decision to end TPS could impact approximately 348,000 individuals, potentially reducing the labor supply by about 20,000 jobs per month over the next year [4][15] Group 5 - Overall, the May employment data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of rate cuts in June and July [5][17] - The market's limited expectations for rate cuts were reflected in the rise of major U.S. stock indices following the employment data release [5][17] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded by 11 basis points to 4.50% on the same day [5][17]

Group 1 - The U.S. job market remains stable, but there are emerging cracks that could pose significant challenges in the coming months [1] - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, slightly above market expectations but below April's 147,000 [1] - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with the underemployment rate remaining at 7.8% [1] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, but these industries face potential growth limitations due to proposed policy changes [2] - The proposed spending bill includes a $700 billion cut to federal Medicaid spending and increased costs for ACA enrollment, which could severely impact the healthcare sector that has contributed about 30% of new jobs over the past three years [2] - The leisure and hospitality sector may also be affected by new tariff policies, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending and job impacts [2] Group 3 - Job seekers' confidence is declining, with about 40% of job seekers lacking confidence in the current job market, and nearly one-third expecting fewer job opportunities in the next six months [2] - There is a growing disparity in the job market, where those already employed are faring better than new job seekers, particularly recent graduates [3] - Knowledge-based job growth in sectors like finance, marketing, and software development is weak, while professional and business services are cutting positions [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates a contraction in overall economic activity, with businesses and households becoming increasingly cautious in their decision-making [3] - Recruitment levels are stable, but low employee turnover suggests that companies remain cautious about adding new positions [3]

Market Performance - Developed markets outperformed last week, with MSCI Global Index up by 1.4%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.7%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down by 0.9% [3] - In developed markets, the strongest performer was Nikkei 225 (+2.2%), while the weakest was France's CAC40 (+0.2%) [3] - Emerging markets saw the best performance from the Korean Composite Index (+4.1%) and the worst from Taiwan Weighted Index (-1.4%) [3] Sector Performance - In the US stock market, real estate and information technology sectors led with gains of 2.7% and 2.4% respectively, while energy and materials lagged [9] - In the Hong Kong market, healthcare and real estate sectors performed well, with increases of 3.4% and 1.4% respectively [9] - European stocks saw energy and information technology sectors leading with gains of 1.4% each, while materials and communication services lagged [9] Valuation Trends - As of May 30, 2025, developed markets' PE and PB ratios were 22.3x and 3.6x, respectively, indicating high valuation levels [23] - The Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average had the highest PE ratios at 39.7x and 28.8x, respectively [23] - Emerging markets' PE and PB ratios were 14.9x and 1.9x, with the highest valuations seen in the ChiNext Index and India's Sensex30 [24] Earnings Expectations - In the Hong Kong market, the earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was slightly revised down from 2223 to 2219 [31] - The US market maintained its earnings expectations for the S&P 500 Index at 263, with the information technology sector seeing a slight increase [31] - European earnings expectations remained stable, with the Eurozone STOXX50 Index holding at 347 [31] Liquidity Conditions - Global liquidity conditions turned more accommodative last week, with declines in benchmark interest rates in the US and China [34] - The market is anticipating potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of 2.2 cuts this year [34] - Long-term interest rates in major economies like France, Germany, and the US saw significant declines, exceeding 10 basis points [34] Economic Outlook - US economic expectations have improved, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rising from 6.0 to 11.5 [43] - European economic expectations also increased, with the Eurozone Economic Surprise Index rising from 12.5 to 17.7 [43] - China's Economic Surprise Index decreased slightly but remains at a historically high level, reflecting strong policy expectations [43]

Group 1 - The announcement of tariffs by President Trump on April 2 has led to a significant decline in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, with April's global M&A contracts dropping to the lowest level in over 20 years, totaling 2,330 deals, which is 34% lower than the historical monthly average [1] - The total value of global M&A activities fell to $233 billion in April, a 54% decrease from March and 20% lower than the average for the past 20 years [4] - In the U.S., only 555 deals were completed in April, marking the lowest level since May 2009 [1][4] Group 2 - Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has led investment bankers to advise clients to hold off on M&A and IPOs until there is more clarity [4] - Despite the overall decline, significant transactions like Global Payments' $24.25 billion acquisition of a credit card processing company provided some support to the struggling market [4] - The technology sector accounted for nearly 40% of the $600 billion in deals signed in the U.S. this year, with a focus on intellectual property rather than physical goods affected by tariffs [7] Group 3 - Different industries are experiencing varying impacts from the tariffs, with sectors like telecommunications, media, and utilities being less affected, while industrials and healthcare face greater challenges [7] - Investment banks are advising clients to thoroughly understand the additional risks associated with target companies' business models due to the current volatility in the market [7]

港股交易热度持续高涨, 业绩关注度逐渐提升 2025 年 02 月 23 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 策略研究 · 周度报告 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 本周港股市场回顾：（1）行情表现：本周（2月 17 日-2 月 21 日），全球股 指涨跌互现。其中,港股再次领涨全球权益指数;台股、A 股、韩国股市、越 南股市总体上涨;美股、泰国股市、德国股市、日本股市、英国股市、印度股 市、法国股市等小幅下跌。(2)本周港股市场延续强势上行格局,恒生指数、 恒生科技指数、国企指数分别累计上涨 3.79%、6.03%、4.02%。行业层面, 7 个恒生综合行业指数上涨,5个行业下跌。其中,资讯科技业、医疗保健业、 电讯业涨幅居前,分别上涨 10.34%、8.81%、6.01%;原材料业、能源业、地 产建筑业跌幅居前,分别下跌 3.07%、2.45%、0.53%。（3）情绪面：本周港 交所日均 ...