丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 当前券商行业及个股 AH 溢价如何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年以来港股表现较为强势，AH 溢价指数随之回落。本文据此展开，梳理券商行业及个股 当前 AH 溢价情况，并进一步梳理其股价弹性及回撤情况。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 当前券商行业及个股 AH 溢价如何？ [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 恒生沪深港通 AH 股溢价指数衡量了两地上市公司 A 股相对于港股的整体溢价情况，2025 年 以来港股表现较为强势，AH 溢价指数随之回落，年初以来下跌 11.6%（截至 2025.7.11）。 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-07-14 行业研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank]投资评级 看好丨维持 市场表现对比图(近 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists report that tariffs may have increased prices for goods with supply chains extending overseas, such as home goods, entertainment, and communication products [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Impact - Last month, airfare prices may have rebounded, but Goldman Sachs predicts that due to expected declines in used car prices and stable new car prices, the overall core inflation rate for June may be approximately 0.23% month-on-month [1] - The team anticipates that the monthly inflation rate for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will range between 0.3% and 0.4% in the coming months due to the potential severe impacts of tariffs [1]

第一缕阳光洒在华尔街铜牛的身上，交易员们屏息凝视：莫斯科机场取消了485个航班，而美国非农就业数据即将公布。高盛首席经济学家David Mericle此 前发布的报告警示再次被反复传阅："任何恐慌性的就业数据都可能使提前降息成为最容易的选择。"劳动力市场的细微变化，正成为压垮利率的最后一根稻 草。 同一时刻，7月11日清晨，所有人的目光都集中在劳工部。当6月CPI数据最终揭晓时，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒——下任美联储主席的热门人选——在他 的办公室屏幕上看到了期待已久的信号：核心通胀率连续第三个月温和下行。他拿起加密电话，拨通了美联储主席鲍威尔的号码："数据显示关税冲击可 控。"电话那端沉默片刻，只传来一句："等月底会议详谈。" 与此同时，日本财务省官员带着新的提案飞往华盛顿，韩国贸易代表团也抵达杜勒斯机场。全 球资本市场的神经依然紧绷，但暗流涌动，押注9月降息的资金正悄然越过警戒线，等待着美联储的最终指令。 高盛的Mericle在凌晨紧急修改的报告中明确写道："我们预计7月不会降息。"这份报告预测美联储将在9月、10月和12月分别降息25个基点，并在2026年再降 息两次。支撑这一预测的是日渐减弱的通胀压 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to continue high growth in mid-year performance, with ongoing strong market trading activity. The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] - The insurance sector is guided by a recent notice from the Ministry of Finance, emphasizing long-term investment strategies and management capabilities, which is expected to drive stable long-term capital inflows into the market. The report recommends companies like Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance based on their stable profitability and dividend rates [2][4] - The report also suggests a focus on companies with strong performance elasticity and valuation levels, recommending Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [2][4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is experiencing a recovery with high trading volumes, and mid-year performance is expected to show significant growth. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality stocks within this sector [2][4] - The average daily trading volume in the market has increased to 14,961.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.80% increase week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in trading activity [5][36] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry has seen a year-on-year increase in premium income, with total premiums reaching 30,602 billion yuan in May 2025, up 3.77% from the previous year. This includes a 5.22% increase in property insurance and a 3.28% increase in life insurance [19][20] - The report highlights the stable asset allocation of insurance funds, with a significant portion invested in bonds and stock funds, indicating a robust investment strategy [25][24] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index has shown a 4.0% increase this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.1%, indicating strong sector performance [5][16] - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-bank sector is strong, with the securities sector rising by 4.5% and the insurance sector by 1.7% [16][21] Financing Activities - In June 2025, equity financing reached 544.19 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3140.2% month-on-month, while bond financing also saw a rise to 88.3 billion yuan, up 21.3% [45][47] - The report indicates a recovery in the issuance of collective asset management products, with a notable increase in new issuances in June 2025 [49]

来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 今年最强贵金属不是金银 黄金美元技术与基本面矛盾 2025年07月13日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 1 一周市场小结 上周国际现货金价3334.45美元开盘，最高上试3368.57美元，最低下探3282.62美元，报收3355.09美元， 上涨20.09美元，涨幅0.60%，振幅2.58%，周K线呈先抑后扬，震荡上行小阳线。 上周美元指数以96.97点开盘，最高上试97.96点，最低下探96.88点，报收97.85点，上涨870点，涨幅 0.90%，振幅1.12%，周K线呈震荡反弹小阳线。 上周wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6869.55点开盘，最高上试7062.24点，最低下探6695.16点，报收 7036.32点，上涨169.48点，涨幅2.48%，振幅5.35%，周K线呈先抑后扬，再创历史新高的中阳线。 上周： 现货银价上涨3.97%，振幅6.46%，报收38.38美元； 现货铂金价格上涨0.60%，振幅4.99%，报收1399.35美元； 伦镍下跌0.16%，振幅2.65%，报收15235.00美元； 伦锡下跌0 ...

2025年盛夏的十字路口：全球金融在深夜的抉择 高盛的紧急预测与降息逻辑 世界经济的巨轮驶入2025年盛夏的十字路口，每个深夜传来的消息都可能成为改变航向的海风。货币政策、地缘博弈与国家战略在历史的节点上交汇，世界 永远在深夜的消息与黎明的市场反应间，重塑它的面貌。这一关键时刻，由7月7日深夜爆发的四重奏拉开序幕，最终在7月9日高盛的紧急报告中达到高潮。 金融风暴前的预兆：7月7日深夜的四重奏 7月7日，全球金融市场被四大重磅消息接连震动，如同深夜惊雷，预示着风暴的来临。首先，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发布关税威胁，任何与金砖国 家"反美政策"保持一致的国家将面临额外10%的关税。这道深夜推文如同闪电划破国际经贸夜空，全球贸易市场瞬间紧张起来。同时，美国政府宣布将于当 日中午公布与贸易伙伴的关税信函或协议，为8月1日起最高达70%的惩罚性关税铺路。 几乎与此同时，乌克兰战场上演了开战以来最大规模的无人机袭击。数百架无人机如同复仇蜂群，袭击了俄罗斯境内16个地区，从南部罗斯托夫到西部卡卢 加，从西北部圣彼得堡到首都莫斯科，甚至远至540公里外的克拉斯诺扎沃茨克化工厂——这座为俄国防部生产多管火箭炮和弹药的关键设 ...

Core Insights - The forum discussed strategies for Chinese companies to adapt to the reshaping of the global economic landscape due to geopolitical challenges, trade barriers, financial volatility, and technological changes [2][3] Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The pressure of global supply chain restructuring highlights China's strong production, logistics, and human resources, which can still provide competitive advantages [3] - The "dual circulation" strategy emphasizes the importance of enhancing negotiation skills with the world and identifying systematic opportunities for international expansion [3] - The World Bank indicates that since 2004, the share of global goods and services trade in global GDP has steadily increased, showing that globalization has not halted [6] Group 2: Digital Currency and Regulation - The U.S. and global regulatory frameworks are evolving, particularly with the introduction of the U.S. Stablecoin Innovation Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulations, which may diminish the decentralized nature of stablecoins [4] - The development of stablecoins by the U.S. is seen as a strategy to reinforce the dominance of the dollar in the global economy [4][5] - There is a call for China to accelerate legislation and regulation regarding digital currencies and stablecoins to enhance the internationalization of the renminbi [4][5] Group 3: Localization and Global Strategy - Companies must implement localization strategies to succeed in overseas markets, as evidenced by Ganfeng Lithium's approach to respecting local cultures and sharing benefits [7] - The integration of new technologies like artificial intelligence with China's manufacturing advantages is crucial for addressing challenges in overseas operations [7] - Key experiences for state-owned enterprises in international expansion include global resource allocation, differentiation, compliance, and low-carbon transformation [8] Group 4: Economic Challenges and Policy - Domestic economic challenges in China include a decline in import ratios, fluctuating real estate markets, and a need for more proactive monetary policies to stimulate investment and consumption [6] - The future of China's economy relies not only on macroeconomic policy adjustments but also on the ability of enterprises to find differentiated paths in the new phase of globalization [8]

Group 1: Market Sentiment - The positive impact of short positions and sentiment in the US stock market may have largely passed, with fundamentals expected to become the main driver across asset classes in the second half of the year [2][4] - Market sentiment indicators are slightly above long-term averages, indicating a shift towards optimism [2] Group 2: Macro Research Focus - Goldman Sachs has lowered its US Treasury yield expectations, now forecasting 2-year and 10-year yields to reach 3.45% and 4.20% respectively by year-end, indicating a slight steepening of the yield curve [4] - The firm has raised its forward P/E ratio expectations for the S&P 500 from 20.4x to 22x, increasing target levels for the index to 6400, 6600, and 6900 for 3, 6, and 12 months respectively [4][5] Group 3: Tax and Trade Implications - The anticipated increase in tariffs, including a 25% tariff on copper, is expected to add to the already projected 14 percentage point rise in effective US tariff rates this year [5][6] - Ongoing tariff negotiations may create uncertainty for US businesses and foreign investors, contributing to expectations of a weaker dollar [6][7] Group 4: Global Economic Impact - The implementation of tariffs is expected to suppress export growth for US trading partners, with an estimated overall export decline of 4%-5% for major economies [12] - The anticipated effects of tariffs and currency fluctuations may lead to a 1%-5% decline in industrial production and a 1-4 percentage point drop in manufacturing PMI in the coming months [12][13]

智通财经7月11日电，利弗莫尔证券显示，澜起科技股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书，联席保荐 人为中金公司、Morgan Stanley、瑞银集团， 澜起科技股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书 ...

智通财经7月11日电，摩根士丹利将亚马逊目标价由250美元上调至300美元。 ...