Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price falls from the high, the distance is a positive value, representing the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks and indices with strong momentum and highlights market leaders, aligning with the principles of momentum investing[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories tend to yield stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are filtered from the pool of those that hit a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days. The selection criteria include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative strength: Top 20% in 250-day price performance - Price stability: Evaluated using the following metrics: - Absolute value of price changes over the past 120 days - Sum of absolute daily price changes over the past 120 days - Momentum continuity: - Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes smooth price trajectories and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention, thereby enhancing the momentum effect[24]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance (as of February 13, 2026)**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 2.00% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.35% - CSI 300: 2.72% - CSI 500: 3.51% - CSI 1000: 3.14% - CSI 2000: 2.54% - ChiNext Index: 3.32% - STAR 50 Index: 5.50%[12][13]. 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Zhongtung High-tech, Dike Co., and Xiechuang Data. - **Sector Distribution**: - Technology: 21 stocks (most from the electronics industry) - Manufacturing: 16 stocks (most from the machinery industry)[27][32]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies stocks with strong momentum and aligns with established momentum strategies[11][18]. 2. Factor Name: Price Stability - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Absolute value of price changes over the past 120 days - Sum of absolute daily price changes over the past 120 days[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable price movements, which are less likely to attract excessive attention, enhancing the momentum effect[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance (as of February 13, 2026)**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 2.00% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.35% - CSI 300: 2.72% - CSI 500: 3.51% - CSI 1000: 3.14% - CSI 2000: 2.54% - ChiNext Index: 3.32% - STAR 50 Index: 5.50%[12][13]. 2. Price Stability Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Zhongtung High-tech, Dike Co., and Xiechuang Data. - **Sector Distribution**: - Technology: 21 stocks (most from the electronics industry) - Manufacturing: 16 stocks (most from the machinery industry)[27][32].

- The report introduces a quantitative model called "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify market hotspots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, emphasizing the effectiveness of stocks reaching new highs as market indicators. The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback from the new high[11][12][13] - The report evaluates the model positively, citing its ability to capture market trends and identify leading stocks that perform well during market uptrends. It references studies by [George@2004], William O'Neil, and Mark Minervini, which support the idea that stocks near their 52-week highs tend to outperform those far from their highs[11][18][21] - The report provides backtesting results for the 250-day new high distance model. As of February 13, 2026, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index have respective 250-day new high distances of 2.00%, 2.35%, 2.72%, 3.51%, 3.14%, 2.54%, 3.32%, and 5.50%[12][31] - The report introduces a quantitative factor called "Stable New High Stocks" to identify stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum. The factor construction involves screening stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days and applying criteria such as analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and sustained new high performance (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days)[24][26][27] - The report evaluates the factor positively, citing research by [Turan G Bali, Nusret et al@2011] and [Da, Gurun et al@2012], which highlight the superior performance of stocks with smooth price paths and strong momentum. The factor is designed to capture these characteristics effectively[24][26][27] - Backtesting results for the "Stable New High Stocks" factor show that 50 stocks were selected based on the criteria, with the highest representation in the technology and manufacturing sectors. Specifically, 21 stocks from the technology sector (dominated by the electronics industry) and 16 stocks from the manufacturing sector (dominated by the machinery industry) were included[27][32][30]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 **Makel'sid.** **Hil's.Makel's.** **Hil's.Makel's. **Hil's.Makel's. 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2026 年 2 月 13 日，上证指数、深证 成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 2.00%、2.35%、2.72%、3.51%、3.14%、2.54%、 3.32%、5.50%。中信一级行业指数中建材、机械、轻工制造、石油石化、 传媒行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、银行、综合金融、医药、 农林牧渔行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指数中，造纸、互联网、 万得微盘股日频等权、云计算、储能、工程机械、电气部件与设备等概 念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2026 年 2 月 13 日，共 1390 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是机械、电子、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是有色金属、石 油石化、钢铁行业。 ...

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of February 13, 2026, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 2.00%, Shenzhen Component Index 2.35%, CSI 300 2.72%, CSI 500 3.51%, CSI 1000 3.14%, CSI 2000 2.54%, ChiNext Index 3.32%, and STAR 50 Index 5.50% [5][24] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, construction materials, machinery, light industry manufacturing, petroleum and petrochemicals, and media industries are closest to their 250-day new highs, while food and beverage, banking, comprehensive finance, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture indices are further away [8][24] Group 2 - As of February 13, 2026, a total of 1,390 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most new highs in the machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors [2][12] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel industries, with respective proportions of 66.67%, 62.75%, and 39.62% [12][15] - The manufacturing and technology sectors have the most stocks reaching new highs this week, with 433 and 396 stocks respectively [15] Group 3 - The report identifies 50 stocks with stable new highs, including Zhongtung High-tech, Dike Co., and Xiechuang Data, primarily from the technology and manufacturing sectors [3][20] - The technology sector has the most new high stocks, particularly in the electronics industry, while the manufacturing sector has the most in the machinery industry [20][25]

Macro Trends - China's economy is transitioning from a real estate cycle bottoming out to a strategic shift towards high-end manufacturing, with real estate prices stabilizing around 4.53% of GDP, approaching the lower end of the 4%-6% range seen in the US and Japan[12][14]. - The manufacturing sector is accelerating domestic substitution in key areas like automotive and machinery, moving from scale dividends to high-value global value chain competition[2]. Global Expansion - Chinese companies are evolving from merely exporting products to building ecosystems, leveraging channels, capital, and products for comprehensive value and cultural output[3]. - The gaming industry has seen significant success, with 12 Chinese games ranking in the global top 30 revenue list, led by Tencent's "Honor of Kings"[50]. Consumer Behavior - The consumption cycle is shifting from a "total volume era" to a "structural era," focusing on precise segmentation and supply reconstruction, driven by a younger high-net-worth demographic[4]. - Retail and commercial real estate are transitioning from simple sales to a focus on professionalism and experiential offerings, reflecting a K-shaped differentiation in consumer preferences[4]. Asset Management - The global asset management landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with gold and other assets moving independently from traditional stock-bond frameworks, challenging conventional asset allocation strategies[5]. - The rise of quantitative products and the diversity of ETF funds are significantly impacting active management models, reshaping the funding ecosystem both domestically and internationally[5].

Macro - Real Estate Cycle and Manufacturing Upgrade - The Chinese economy is transitioning from a real estate cycle bottoming out to a strategic shift towards high-end manufacturing, with real estate undergoing a value reconstruction and price stabilization, laying the foundation for long-term consumption recovery [2][12] - Manufacturing is accelerating domestic substitution and deeply embedding into the global supply chain, shifting from scale dividends to high value-added global value chain competition [2][12] Going Global - From "Selling Products" to "Building Ecosystems" - Chinese enterprises are moving from simple "capacity going global" to comprehensive "value and cultural output," leveraging advantages in channels, capital, and products [3][38] - The historical path of Japan's home appliance industry is referenced, with Chinese companies engaging in mergers and deepening channels in emerging markets, transitioning from physical trade to IP premium through mobile games, trendy toys, and TV dramas [3][38] Consumption - Transition from "Total Volume Era" to "Structural Era" - The new consumption cycle is characterized by precise stratification and supply reconstruction rather than broader coverage, with a younger high-net-worth demographic driving the domestic demand engine [4][12] - Retail and commercial real estate are evolving from "selling goods" to "professionalism + experiential," showcasing extreme professionalism and extreme alternatives in a "K-shaped" differentiation [4][12] Asset Management - Trends of Multi-Asset, Multi-Strategy, and Diversity - The global asset management landscape is undergoing a deep transformation, decoupling from traditional logic and reconstructing allocation paradigms [5][12] - Gold is emerging independently outside traditional frameworks, with strengthened correlations among precious metals, the US dollar, US Treasuries, and stocks, challenging traditional stock-bond allocation frameworks [5][12]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 2 月 13 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（2 月第 6 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-02-13 00:21:07 1 / 3 投资策略|点评报告 广发投资策略研究小组 | 刘 | 晨 | 明 ：首席分析师，南开大学世界经济硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郑 | | 恺 ：首席分析师，华东师范大学金融学硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | 许 | 向 | 真 ：（上海）资深分析师，厦门大学硕士，8 年策略研究经验。 | | 倪 | | 赓 ：（上海）资深分析师，中山大学硕士，7 年策略研究经验。 | | 陈 | 振 | 威 ：（上海）资深分析师，香港中文大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 杨 | 泽 | 蓁 ：（上海）资深分析师，上海财经大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 杨 | 清 | 源 ：（上海）高级分析师，西南财经大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 毕 ...

近期事件近期宏观市场情绪波动可能间接影响机械板块。2月12日，券商中国报道指出，美股主要指数 全线收跌，软件股大幅下挫，市场对人工智能（AI）冲击的担忧加剧，引发科技股广泛抛售。此外，2 月6日智通财经文章提到"抛售一切"情绪席卷全球，投资者对AI、加密货币等资产进行重新评估，增加 市场回调风险。这些因素可能对工具与配件板块的估值环境产生外溢影响。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网 近7个交易日内（2026年2月6日至12日），芝加哥机械（CVR.AM）股价呈现波动上行后回 调的走势。区间起始日（2月6日）收盘价为13.59美元，终止日（2月11日）收盘价升至13.98美元，区间 涨幅2.87%，振幅4.93%。2月11日单日上涨2.72%，成交额26,985美元，显示短期活跃度提升。但截至2 月12日最新数据，股价回落至13.38美元，当日跌幅4.30%，成交金额仅1,498美元，流动性较低。5日累 计涨跌幅为-1.56%，年初至今下跌3.82%。 ...

Export Trends - In 2025, China's export share remained stable at 13.6%, only down 0.7 percentage points from 2024, demonstrating global competitiveness[3] - The U.S. market accounted for 11.1% of China's exports, a decrease of approximately 3.5 percentage points from 2024, contributing to a 2.9% drag on overall export growth[3] - ASEAN, the EU, and Africa emerged as significant markets, with ASEAN's share rising to 17.6% and the EU's to 14.8%, offsetting declines in U.S. exports[10] Product Structure - The export structure showed a strong influence from overseas AI investments, with electric machinery and components contributing 2.3% to export growth in 2025[33] - The automotive sector, driven by Chinese EV companies, added approximately 0.7% to export growth, while traditional labor-intensive products negatively impacted exports by 0.6%[3] - Exports of intermediate and capital goods, particularly chemicals and machinery, performed well, contributing 1.2% to overall export growth[3] Import Dynamics - China's imports showed signs of recovery starting in Q2 2025, with significant contributions from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea[3] - High-tech intermediate goods, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products were the main drivers of import growth, reflecting a shift towards higher value-added imports[3] - The overall import growth rate was 0.5% in 2025, with a notable decline in traditional energy imports and a focus on high-tech products[3] Future Outlook - For 2026, global trade is expected to continue expanding, albeit at a slower rate, with strong support for China's exports in non-U.S. markets[3] - Domestic demand is anticipated to show a mix of new and old growth drivers, with continued expansion of trade partnerships contributing to import growth[3] - Import prices are projected to rise moderately, leading to a gentle increase in overall import growth rates[3]

Group 1 - China has regained its position as Germany's largest trading partner, surpassing the United States, largely due to U.S. tariff policies [1][3] - In 2025, Germany's imports from China increased by 9%, reaching €171 billion, significantly higher than imports from the U.S. [1] - From 2016 to 2023, China was Germany's top trading partner for eight consecutive years until the U.S. briefly overtook this position in 2024 [3] Group 2 - U.S. tariffs have severely impacted German manufacturing, particularly in the automotive and machinery sectors, leading to a significant drop in demand for German products in the U.S. market [3][5] - The German automotive industry has faced substantial profit declines, with Volkswagen's operating profit dropping by one-third and Mercedes-Benz's net profit plummeting by 56% [3] - The German mechanical engineering sector is projected to see a 5% decline in production this year due to U.S. tariffs [5] Group 3 - China has maintained a stable trade environment without imposing tariffs, providing German companies with a predictable market, particularly for key components supporting Germany's green transition [5] - A survey indicated that 93% of German companies in China plan to continue investing in the Chinese market, with over half intending to increase their investments in the next two years [5] Group 4 - German Chancellor Merz is set to visit China with a delegation of major industrial leaders to strengthen trade relations and seek new orders in sectors like renewable energy and digitalization [6][8] - Despite the need for closer ties with China, German Foreign Minister Baerbock emphasized Germany's closer relationship with the U.S., indicating a complex diplomatic balancing act [8] - The German wholesale and foreign trade association has stated that U.S. protectionist tariffs pose a significant challenge to German exports, highlighting the necessity for enhanced cooperation with China [8]