行业： 评级： 汽车 强于大市（维持） 2026年1月28日 证券研究报告 智能化+全球化驱动，把握结构性机会 2026年汽车行业投资策略 分析师：吴迪（汽车首席） SAC：S0820525010001 wudi@ajzq.com 联系人：徐姝婧 SAC：S0820124090004 xushujing@ajzq.com 0. 核心摘要 1. 复盘展望：总量承压，结构突围 2. 行业趋势：智能化+全球化驱动增长 3. 投资建议 目 录 2 0. 核心摘要 1. 复盘展望：总量承压，结构突围 2. 行业趋势：智能化+全球化驱动增长 3. 投资建议 4. 风险提示 4. 风险提示 目 录 3 0. 核心摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 4 n 复盘：受益于设备更新及消费品以旧换新的"两新"政策助力，以及企业新品密集上市，终端需求持续释放，全年汽车销 量实现较快增长。2025年申万汽车板块整体涨幅+24.3%，同期沪深300指数涨幅+17.7%。2025年中国汽车总销量达 3440万辆，同比+9.4%，其中乘用车销量3010万辆，同比+9.2%，商用车销量430万辆，同比+10.9%。 n 展望：202 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on companies with performance certainty, particularly those in the index, such as Yutong Bus, Minth Group, Jifeng, and Fuda Group [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a potential recovery in wholesale sales due to relaxed tariff policies for vehicle exports to the EU and Canada, benefiting companies like BYD, SAIC, and Xpeng [1] - The expectation for Tesla's Optimus V3 continues to strengthen, indicating valuation elasticity in the robotics industry chain, with a focus on Hengbo, Yinlun, Top, and Sanhua [1] - Domestic cost pressures are significant, leading to a cautious outlook on annual profit forecasts, while overseas export opportunities are promising for companies like BYD and Geely [1] Industry Situation Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the second week of January were 50,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22% and a month-on-month decrease of 31% [1] - The traditional raw material price index and the new energy raw material price index both increased recently, with traditional vehicle raw material prices rising by 1.1% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle raw material prices increased by 3.2% month-on-month and 19.5% year-on-year [1] Market Situation Update - The total transaction amount in the automotive industry this week was 767.057 billion, with a week-on-week decrease of 8.37%. The automotive industry index closed at 8425.62 points, up 2.51% for the week [1][4] - The automotive industry index's weekly increase was higher than that of the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.62% [4] - A total of 219 stocks in the industry rose, while 50 fell, with the largest gainers being New Coordinates, Tieliu, and Weichai Heavy Industry, which rose by 36.3%, 33.0%, and 28.0% respectively [8] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report emphasizes the importance of AI spillover, anti-involution, and demand recovery as key themes. It suggests focusing on intelligent and high-end directions in the vehicle sector, particularly new force car companies like Xpeng, NIO, and Li Auto [1] - Companies with overseas business support for profit totals, such as BYD, Geely, and Leap Motor, are also highlighted [1] - The report notes that the reform of state-owned enterprises may bring breakthrough changes, with attention on SAIC and Dongfeng [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, particularly recommending leading passenger car companies and those involved in the intelligent and humanoid robotics supply chains [5]. Core Insights - In 2025, China's automotive sales are expected to increase by 9.4% year-on-year to 34.4 million units, with domestic sales rising by 6.7% to 27.3 million units, driven by the continued implementation of vehicle replacement policies [1][2][9]. - Exports are projected to grow by 12.1% to 7.1 million units, marking the first time exports exceed 7 million units, supported by the increasing international market influence of domestic brands and high growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports [2][10]. - NEV sales are anticipated to rise by 28.2% to 16.49 million units, with a penetration rate increasing by 7.0 percentage points to 47.9% [2][10]. - For 2026, automotive sales are forecasted to grow by 1% to 34.75 million units, with NEV sales expected to increase by 15.2% to 1.9 million units, supported by ongoing policy optimization and expansion in overseas markets [3][11]. Summary by Sections Sales Forecast - 2025 automotive sales are projected at 34.4 million units, with domestic sales at 27.3 million units and exports at 7.1 million units [2][10]. - NEV sales are expected to reach 16.49 million units, with a penetration rate of 47.9% [2][10]. Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing strong domestic demand and high export growth, contributing to a high level of market activity in 2025 [2][10]. - The influence of domestic brands in international markets is increasing, particularly in the NEV segment, which is driving export growth [2][10]. Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies are expected to continue providing support for the domestic automotive market in 2026, despite some adjustments in tax incentives [3][11]. - The transition to NEVs is accelerating in the commercial vehicle market, with significant achievements in overseas market expansion for domestic NEV products [2][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Key players in the high-end electric vehicle segment include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, and others [21]. - In the heavy truck segment, 2025 saw a total wholesale of 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report anticipates a slight growth in domestic sales for 2026, projecting 800,000 to 850,000 units sold [26]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies [25]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in 2026, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units, including a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles [22]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, driven by subsidy policies. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile and Geely, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles [21]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the heavy truck market saw a total of 1.144 million units sold, with domestic sales reaching 799,000 units. The report forecasts 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [26]. Buses - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an expected 40% increase in sales to 40,000 units, supported by ongoing subsidy policies [25]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Key players in the high-end electric vehicle segment include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, and others [21]. - In the heavy truck segment, 2025 saw a total wholesale of 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report anticipates a slight growth in domestic sales for 2026, projecting 800,000 to 850,000 units sold [26]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies [25]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in 2026, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units, including a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles [22]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [21]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the heavy truck market saw a total of 1.144 million units sold, with domestic sales at 799,000 units and exports at 341,000 units. The report forecasts domestic sales of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [26]. Buses - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an expected sales volume of 40,000 units, a 40% increase from the previous year, supported by ongoing subsidy policies [25]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, indicating a potential rebound in vehicle sales in the first quarter driven by retail and export growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a rebound in vehicle sales, particularly in the first quarter, with catalysts from retail and export activities. The focus for auto parts remains on new industries such as intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3][4]. - Traditional automotive stocks have shown relative stability in prices, while the robotics sector is expanding into second-tier markets [3]. - The report highlights significant growth in new energy vehicle deliveries, with companies like NIO and Li Auto showing notable month-on-month increases [6][7]. Data Tracking - In early January, the discount rate for traditional vehicles remained stable at 9.6%, with an average discount amount of 22,259 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,192 yuan [5]. - December saw a decline in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles, with wholesale sales down 8.7% year-on-year and retail sales down 16.8% [5][6]. - New energy vehicle deliveries in December showed a mixed performance, with BYD delivering 420,398 units (down 18.3% year-on-year) while NIO and Li Auto reported significant increases in deliveries [6][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the German government announced subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for families purchasing new electric vehicles to boost the domestic electric vehicle industry [10]. - The report also mentions that the Chinese government is implementing policies to promote the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, which is expected to enhance the automotive market [10][30]. - Geely's new MPV model, the Galaxy V900, was launched with a price range of 269,800 to 329,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [30].

Group 1: Report Overview - The research object is China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd., belonging to the automobile manufacturing industry [17] - The research was conducted on January 23, 2026, with the company's board secretary Zhang Xin and investor relations specialist He Bingyi receiving the visit [17] - Participating research institutions include CICC, Huaneng Guocheng Trust, Galaxy Securities, Dunhe Asset Management, etc. [2] Group 2: Core Views - In 2025, China's heavy - truck market total sales volume was 1.145 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 27%. The company maintained good growth in overall production and sales compared to the previous year [23] - The company's production and operation are stable, with sufficient orders on hand, and its market share ranks among the top in the heavy - truck industry [24] - In 2025, natural gas heavy - trucks sold 198,700 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The company is optimistic about the natural gas heavy - truck market and will continue to enhance product competitiveness [24][25] - In 2025, the domestic new - energy heavy - truck market maintained strong growth. The annual cumulative sales were 231,100 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 182%. In December 2025, 45,300 vehicles were sold, a year - on - year increase of 189%. The company will continue to develop in this field [25][26] - The company's affiliated axle company and after - market company operate stably and have good profitability [26][28] - The company's export business has maintained good growth, ranking among the top in the industry, with products exported to more than 150 countries and regions [29] Group 3: Directory Summaries 01. Research Basic Situation - The research object is China National Heavy Duty Truck, and the reception time is January 23, 2026. The reception staff are board secretary Zhang Xin and investor relations specialist He Bingyi [17] 02. Detailed Research Institutions - Participating institutions include CICC (securities company), Huaneng Guocheng Trust (trust company), Galaxy Securities (securities company), and Dunhe Asset Management (asset management company) [18] 03. Research Institution Proportion - No relevant content provided 04. Main Content Data - The company's production and sales in 2025 maintained good growth, with stable operations and sufficient orders [23][24] - The company is optimistic about the development of natural gas heavy - trucks and will make long - term strategic arrangements [24][25] - The new - energy heavy - truck market has strong growth momentum, and the company will continue to develop in this field [25][26] - The axle company is a subsidiary with a 51% stake, supplying products to the group's vehicle production units and enjoying tax incentives. The after - market company is a wholly - owned subsidiary responsible for truck after - market services [26][27] - The company's export business has a good layout, ranking first in the industry for 21 consecutive years, with products exported to many countries and regions [29]

Core Viewpoint - Shuguang Co., Ltd. emphasizes the importance of market value and investor communication while focusing on sustainable development and high-quality operations in the automotive sector [1] Group 1: Market Response - The company's stock price fluctuations in the secondary market are influenced by multiple factors, and management is attentive to these changes [1] - The management team is committed to maintaining the interests of investors through effective communication and value dissemination [1] Group 2: Strategic Direction - The company adheres to a strategic focus on complete vehicles and chassis systems, driving growth through a "dual-wheel" approach [1] - There is a strong emphasis on collaborative development in both domestic and international markets, concentrating on core products and business areas [1]

Group 1: Gold Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price target to $5,400 per ounce, citing increased demand from private investors and central banks [1] - Central banks are expected to purchase 60 tons of gold monthly, and ETF gold holdings are projected to expand as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that gold is becoming the biggest challenger to the dollar, with its share in central bank reserves rising from approximately 14% to 25%-28% [2] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Corpay's chief market strategist indicated that Trump's tariff threats led to a "sell America" effect, lowering the dollar's value and increasing prices of safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Angeles Investments' CIO stated that while diversifying assets outside the U.S. is reasonable, there is no intention to abandon U.S. assets due to strong corporate profitability [4] - Citigroup reported that South Korea may introduce a new fiscal stimulus plan worth approximately $68 billion to address economic growth imbalances [5] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - HSBC economists suggested that if the Bank of Japan's governor returns to a cautious stance, the yen may face new downward pressure, potentially leading to inflation concerns [6] - Mitsubishi UFJ noted that there is no urgent reason for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again, as the effects of monetary policy changes take time to manifest [7] - Singapore's OCBC Bank indicated that clearer communication from the Bank of Japan regarding wage growth expectations could signal earlier interest rate hikes [8] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent rise in the USD/CNY exchange rate may create an ideal buying opportunity for U.S. Treasuries by March [5] - CICC pointed out that the current volatility in U.S. and Japanese bond markets reflects global liquidity fluctuations, suggesting potential systemic risks [6] - CICC also mentioned that the ETF market has ample growth potential, although growth rates may slow this year [7]

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，1月20日有41家香港上市公司进行了股份回购，合计回购2511.52万股，回购 金额4.42亿港元。 | 代码 | 简称 | 回购股数 | 回购金额（万 | 回购最高价 | 回购最低价 | 年内累计回购金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （万股） | 港元） | （港元） | （港元） | （万港元） | | 01810 | 小米集团 W | 550.00 | 19607.97 | 35.860 | 35.460 | 180162.63 | | 02382 | 舜宇光学 | 140.00 | 8860.84 | 64.300 | 62.550 | 62474.98 | | | 科技 | | | | | | | 00175 | 吉利汽车 | 378.80 | 6362.86 | 16.950 | 16.690 | 43777.56 | | 01024 | 快手-W | 39.30 | 2995.25 | 76.700 | 75.850 | 5991.29 | | 02096 | 先声药业 | 188.40 | 2 ...