Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Provincial Government has issued a three-year action plan (2025-2027) aimed at establishing a modern industrial system with distinctive advantages, targeting a GDP contribution of 70% from four leading industries by 2027 [1] Group 1: Economic Development Goals - By 2027, the contribution of four leading industries to GDP is expected to reach approximately 70% [1] - The construction of an international tourism consumption center is advancing, with continuous release of tourism consumption potential [1] Group 2: Service and Manufacturing Integration - The integration of productive services and advanced manufacturing is accelerating, while the life service industry is optimizing towards high quality and diversification [1] - The value added of modern services is projected to approach 30% of GDP [1] Group 3: Innovation and R&D Investment - There is a deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, with a target R&D expenditure intensity of 1.8% by 2027 [1] - The value added of high-tech industries is expected to exceed 17% of GDP by 2027 [1] Group 4: Agricultural Development - A collaborative development pattern is forming in tropical characteristic high-efficiency agriculture, with an annual growth rate of over 5% in the value added of the entire industrial chain of leading agricultural industries [1]

编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平稳增长。面对外部 环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动 能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展望下半年政策走向。 智观年中经济形势 核心观点： 下一步，要进一步做好"两重"建设和"两新"工作，用好新型政策性金融工具，更好发挥政府投资带动作用，加快推进传统产业改造升级，加 快培育和壮大新质生产力，聚焦提高投资效益精准发力，多方面拓展有效投资空间，充分激发民间投资活力，持续发挥投资对优化供给结构的关键作用。 ■杨萍 杜月 今年以来，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，统筹用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等政策工具，加快推 进"两重"建设和"两新"工作，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节积极扩大有效投资，推动固定资产投资平稳增长。从全年看，外部环境仍然复杂严峻、具有不确定 性。下一步，要深入贯彻落实4月25日中共中央政治局会议精神， ...

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" is the imbalance between manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 million), while service employment showed a shortfall of -0.4 million compared to potential levels, indicating a recovery lag in the service sector [2][9] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, reflecting an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is notably below demand, with a potential investment gap of approximately 1.5 trillion [2][18] Group 2 - Consumer demand shows a significant gap, with a shortfall of about 6.4 billion in goods consumption and nearly 30 billion in service consumption, indicating a stronger recovery need in the service sector [3][27] - The average gap in per capita service consumption is 2,093 yuan, while the total potential gap in national service consumption is close to 30 billion [3][27] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences suggest a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][35] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further enhance demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, marking a shift in the economic growth model from manufacturing to services [6][80] - Policies encouraging increased consumer time, such as extended holidays and new school breaks, are expected to boost service demand [6][80] - Service investment is seeing improvements due to policy support and relaxed regulations on private investment, with significant growth in sectors like education and entertainment [6][91]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" is the imbalance between manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels, with a 0.2 billion increase, while service employment showed a shortfall of 0.4 billion compared to potential levels [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is notably below demand, with a potential investment gap of approximately 1.5 trillion [18][106] Group 2 - There is a significant gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita service consumption gap is projected to be 2,093 yuan, indicating a substantial unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - The long-term direction to address "involution" involves shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences suggest a transition in consumer demand from goods to services [4][107] - As GDP per capita reaches 10,000 to 30,000 USD and urbanization increases, service consumption typically rises, with a historical annual increase of about 0.6% [4][35] Group 4 - Policies are being implemented to enhance service consumption, investment, and exports, marking a shift in economic growth drivers from manufacturing to services [6][80] - Recent policy measures include extending legal holidays and encouraging more leisure time for residents, which is expected to boost service demand [6][108] - Service investment is seeing improvements due to regulatory relaxations and increased government support, with a notable growth rate of 15.3% in May, nearing the highest level since 2017 [91][109]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

Group 1 - The central urban work conference emphasizes the development of the life service industry to enhance public service levels and ensure the bottom line of people's livelihoods, positioning it as a key factor in improving urban livability and measuring the effectiveness of urban construction [1] - The life service industry is crucial for meeting residents' consumption needs, linking daily livelihoods with a vast market potential, and is essential for stabilizing employment, expanding domestic demand, and promoting transformation [1] - Current challenges in the life service industry include suboptimal layout, low quality, and insufficient momentum, with issues such as a lack of markets in new districts and scattered service points in old communities [1] Group 2 - Space renewal can amplify scale benefits by transforming urban villages and dilapidated housing into comprehensive service centers that integrate community dining, domestic services, childcare, and convenient repairs, creating small-scale, multi-functional, one-stop living scenarios [2] - Empowering platforms enhances operational resilience by building a shared platform that aggregates life service elements online and coordinates offline, promoting small and micro enterprises towards branding and chain development while ensuring safety and quality [2] - Risk prevention and development promotion must proceed simultaneously, with a focus on maintaining public service attributes for vulnerable groups and utilizing government pricing, subsidies, and service vouchers to ensure accessibility and quality [2]

Economic Performance Overview - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 stands at 5.3%, reflecting a steady performance amidst complex economic conditions [2][3] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating robust industrial activity [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.0%, showcasing resilience in the consumption market despite a slight slowdown in June [3] Trade and Financial Indicators - The total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, highlighting China's strong connection with global markets [3] - The cumulative increase in social financing reached 22.83 trillion yuan, with RMB loans increasing by 12.92 trillion yuan, supporting the real economy [3] Consumption and Investment Dynamics - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, marking it as the primary driver of the economy [5] - Fixed asset investment growth was recorded at 2.8%, with real estate investment declining by 11.2%, indicating cautious corporate investment behavior [5][6] - Private investment, excluding real estate, grew by 5.1%, suggesting potential for recovery if the business environment improves [6] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% in June, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% [7][8] - Price recovery in sectors such as energy and automobiles indicates a gradual warming of the economy, although traditional sectors continue to face downward pressure [7][8] Future Outlook - The economic trajectory is expected to follow a U-shaped pattern, with potential challenges in the second half of the year, particularly in real estate and traditional industries [10] - Policy directions from the central government aim to optimize urban structures and promote service industries, which could support economic stability and growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in China during the first half of the year is stable and improving, with strong resilience and innovative vitality in the industrial economy, highlighted by three structural features. Group 1: Economic Performance - The primary industry shows accelerated growth with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in agricultural value added, ensuring food security through stable grain planting areas and a good summer harvest [2] - The secondary industry maintains a steady growth rate with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in industrial value added, slightly lower than the first quarter but within a reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5% [2] - The tertiary industry is experiencing robust growth, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in service industry value added, indicating a significant recovery and acceleration in development [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrades - The industrial sector is advancing towards new, green, and intelligent developments, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.5% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - The production of green low-carbon products, such as wind power generators and high-performance chemical fibers, has seen significant increases of 72.0% and 36.6% respectively [5] - The digital manufacturing sector is also growing rapidly, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase in value added, showcasing the integration of artificial intelligence into traditional industries [6] Group 3: Service Sector Dynamics - The service sector's contribution to GDP is notable, with a 59.1% share and a contribution rate of 60.2%, indicating a dual-driven growth model [7] - The productive service industry is thriving, with significant growth in sectors like postal, telecommunications, and financial services, where business activity indices remain above 55.0% [7] - Consumer services are also innovating, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in retail service revenue and a notable rise in cultural and tourism sectors [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industrial economy is expected to gain stronger momentum in the second half of the year, driven by coordinated macro policies, deepening new and old kinetic energy conversion, and expanding consumption scenarios [8]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of "involution" is most pronounced among young people, with average weekly working hours increasing by over 4 hours in the past five years. The average weekly working hours for employees aged 25-34 rose from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023 [3][28] - In the manufacturing and productive service sectors, the "involution" phenomenon is particularly evident, while the working hours in real estate, infrastructure, and life service industries have decreased. From 2018 to 2023, the working hours in manufacturing increased by 0.7 hours, while life service industries saw a significant increase of 3.7 hours [2][21][150] - The average daily working time in China has increased by 21 minutes from 2018 to 2023, reaching 48.3 hours per week, which has led to a reduction in the time residents spend on purchasing goods and services from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day [2][9][150] Group 2 - Current policies to combat "involution" focus on encouraging flexible work arrangements and paid leave, but these measures primarily address symptoms rather than the root causes of prolonged working hours. The "Promoting Consumption Special Action Plan" suggests exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools [4][35][150] - The root cause of "involution" is the uneven distribution of employment across industries, with excessive employment in manufacturing leading to "involution" and insufficient employment in the service sector. Tariffs could accelerate the shift of employment from manufacturing to services, achieving a rebalancing [4][48][150] - There is a significant short-term employment gap in the life service industry, with a potential to absorb more jobs. In 2023, there was a 1.5 trillion yuan gap between service employment and value added, indicating a shortage of jobs in sectors like cultural entertainment and residential services [5][61][150] Group 3 - The long-term direction for combating "involution" involves aligning supply structures with changing demand structures, as residents' demand is showing a long-term trend towards "servicization." Global experiences indicate that as GDP per capita reaches 10,000 to 30,000 USD and urbanization rates hit 70%, the proportion of services in total consumption increases by approximately 0.6% annually [6][85][150] - The aging population is expected to increase the demand for service consumption, with each 1% increase in the aging rate correlating with a 1.3% rise in service consumption share. This trend is evident in countries like Japan and South Korea [6][93][150] - The trend of smaller household sizes is further stimulating demand for enjoyment-based services, indicating a robust growth potential for service consumption. In China, the average household size has decreased to 2.8 people, which is associated with higher spending on services like tourism and beauty [6][101][150]

Group 1: Work Hours and Consumer Behavior - Since 2018, China's average weekly working hours have increased to 48.3 hours, which is 21 minutes more per day compared to 2018[3] - The time residents spend on purchasing goods and services has decreased from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day[3] - The most significant "involution" is observed in the manufacturing and productive service sectors, while real estate and life service industries have seen a reduction in working hours[3][4] Group 2: Employment Trends Among Age Groups - The most pronounced "involution" trend is among young people, with an average increase of over 4 hours in weekly working hours over the past five years[4] - For the age group 25-34, weekly working hours increased from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023[4] - In contrast, individuals aged 55 and above have seen a decrease in working hours by 2.3 hours during the same period[4] Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Economic Rebalancing - Current policies encourage flexible work arrangements and paid leave to address "involution," but these measures primarily target symptoms rather than root causes[5] - The imbalance in employment distribution between manufacturing and service sectors is identified as a core issue, with tariffs potentially facilitating a shift from manufacturing to services[5] - The life service sector has the capacity to absorb labor from the manufacturing sector, as it has seen a 7 percentage point increase in employment share over the past two decades[5][6] Group 4: Service Sector Growth and Consumer Demand - The life service sector's wage growth (18.1%) has outpaced that of manufacturing (10.7%) and productive services (12.4%), indicating a labor shortage in the service sector[6] - There is a significant gap of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in service employment compared to value-added, suggesting a need for more jobs in this sector[6] - As urbanization increases and GDP per capita rises, service consumption is expected to grow, with a projected annual increase of 0.6% in service consumption share as urbanization reaches 70%[6][7]