Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing, consumption is stable, inventory is high, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating. Policy influence needs attention [1][2][3][6] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On August 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8805 yuan/ton and closed at 8605 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day's settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 297,619 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,710, a change of 111 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable, with only individual silicon prices in Tianjin rising [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton (-400 yuan/ton). The price decline was due to the approaching end of previously undelivered orders and poor new order reception, prompting monomer plants to cut prices to stimulate downstream enterprises to stock up. Downstream customers made purchases according to production needs [1] Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - With supply growing, consumption stable, high total inventory, and slight fluctuations in spot prices, short - term range trading is recommended. If the market drops significantly, medium - to - long - term hedging by buying at low prices can be considered. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On August 18, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 52,810 yuan/ton and closing at 52,280 yuan/ton, a 1.71% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The main contract's position was 135,517 lots (138,723 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 425,548 lots [3] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a 3.86% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a 3.60% change), polysilicon weekly output was 29,300.00 tons (-0.30% change), and silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a 0.67% change) [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.34 yuan/piece [3] Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. Short - term range trading is recommended, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Group 7: Market Analysis of Battery Cells and Components - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5] Group 8: Factors to Monitor - Factors to monitor include the resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in polysilicon enterprise operations, policy disturbances, macro and capital sentiment, and the operating conditions of organic silicon enterprises [4]

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月19日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | . | 7万吨 ， | 环比有所增加3 | 57% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 ， | | 环比增长2 | 56% . . | 需求有所抬升 | . | 多晶硅库存 | | | | | | | | 为24 2万吨 . ， | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large number of upstream factories resume production, the disk trend follows coking coal futures, but the fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high positions and take profits at low positions in the short - term, and not hold positions for a long time. The expected disk range next week is 8500 - 9100 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct selling hedging [6][8]. - For polysilicon, with more event disturbances next week, the idea is mainly to go long on dips. The expected disk range next week is 50000 - 60000 yuan/ton. After digesting the negative impact of the second batch of registered brands this week, it is recommended to take profits on the inter - period positive spread of PS2511 and PS2512 opportunistically, and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea. Polysilicon downstream wafer factories are recommended to conduct buying hedging [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The disk showed a volatile trend, and the spot price increased. It closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8700 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 150), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was reported at 9000 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100) [2]. - Polysilicon: The disk had a wide - range shock and was generally strong. It closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday. There was partial spot trading in the downstream, but the transaction price did not show obvious improvement [2]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The start - up in the southwest region continued to rise, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production but at a slow pace. The inventory of futures warrants decreased compared with last week, with a warrant inventory increase of 0.1 million tons this week. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon increased, and the weekly production of organic silicon also increased. The aluminum alloy had rigid demand orders, and the export market was inactive [4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The polysilicon production schedule in August is expected to reach 130,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased [4]. - Demand side: After a brief repair of wafer profits, the output increased. The short - term wafer inventory was relatively low, and some wafer factories increased production. The price increase of some wafers and battery cells was accepted, but there was no information on the price increase and transaction of components [5]. Market Data Charts - The report provides a series of charts, including the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and warehouse transaction prices of industrial silicon, domestic industrial silicon social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, polysilicon spot price, production and year - on - year change, industry start - up rate, import and export volume, industry profit calculation, single - crystal wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity, domestic DMC average price trend, industry monthly start - up rate, production and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume of primary - form polysiloxane, industry profit calculation, price seasonality of recycled aluminum ADC12, industry monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation, and domestic automobile monthly sales seasonality [9][11][12][15][18][22][23][24][27]

一、国家"反内卷"相关政策梳理 自2025年6月下旬以来，在中央治理低价无序竞争、反内卷的政策导向下，各部委、协会有力 开展"反内卷"工作部署，积极开展产业调研和座谈，为出台措施做好研究论证。 6月27日《反不正当竞争法》修订明确禁止低价倾销；6月29日《人民日报》点名光伏行业"内 卷式"竞争；7月1日中央财经委会议要求治理低价无序竞争；7月3日工信部召开光伏企业座谈会； 7月18日工信部表示将出台十大重点行业稳增长方案；7月24日国资委强调抵制"内卷式"竞争，发 改委就《价格法》修订征求意见；7月30日中央政治局会议指出"推动市场竞争秩序持续优化，依法 依规治理企业无序竞争"；8月1日工信部印发《2025年度多晶硅行业专项节能监察任务清单的通 知》，要求对41家多晶硅企业的节能情况进行监察。 二、近期硅产业价格波动情况及原因 2025年以来，硅产业市场期现价格呈现先跌后涨的态势。其中多晶硅现货价格从年初的4.06万 元/吨跌至6月底的3.44万元/吨，跌幅15.3%；工业硅综合现货价格从年初的11697元/吨跌至6月 底的8743元/吨，跌幅25.3%；7月份之后，在国家"反内卷"政策的引导下，期货市场价格 ...

Report Summary Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes; Polysilicon: Increasing Disturbances in News" and was released on August 15, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and cost data, and also mentions relevant macro and industry news [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon futures Si2511, the closing price is 8,675 yuan/ton, with a change of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, 20 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 110 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 512,076 lots, and the open interest is 279,035 lots. For polysilicon futures PS2511, the closing price is 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 860 yuan compared to T - 1 and 320 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 415,544 lots, and the open interest is 127,757 lots [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The near - month contract to continuous - first spread for industrial silicon is - 40 yuan/ton, and the buy - near - month and sell - continuous - first inter - period cost is 51.6 yuan/ton. The near - month contract to continuous - first spread for polysilicon is - 740 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 765 yuan/ton [2] - **Price and Profit**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton. The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2626 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 3364 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 16.9 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.1 million tons, and the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 71.6 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 24.2 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 340 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 320 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 925 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On the morning of August 11, a joint observation group composed of various bureaus and their functional departments in Wuhai City inspected the 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa undertaken by the Fourth Branch of China National Chemical Engineering No.16 Construction Company. The advanced management experience and clean construction environment were highly recognized [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon has started to decline because downstream demand is insufficient to support the upward movement of the futures market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. However, some funds have started to make early arrangements. If the decline in polysilicon eases later, short - term long positions can be considered on dips. Operationally, if the price later drops below 8000 yuan, medium - to long - term long positions can be considered on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8675 yuan/ton, a increase of 75 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,035 lots, a decrease of 5465 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,101 lots, an increase of 2466 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,693 lots, a decrease of 8 lots; the price spread between September and October industrial silicon was - 5 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On August 13, it was reported that in Jiangxi, non - fossil energy has developed rapidly, with the new - energy installed capacity increasing by 1.6 times compared to the end of 2020. Wind and photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded thermal power and become one of the main power sources in Jiangxi. The number of county - level regions connected to long - distance natural gas pipelines has increased by 42 compared to 2020, basically achieving full coverage of 100 counties (cities, districts). In the industrial silicon sector, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity - price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to rise, and it is expected that the output in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low profit margins due to the previous low prices, and their enthusiasm for resuming production is not high, so the overall output remains relatively stable [2] Viewpoint Summary - In the organic silicon segment, the market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, the operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid - demand support for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy segment, enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed, the inventory continues to grow, the price is declining, and it is in a passive de - stocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2]

| | 国内工业硅价格 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牌号/地区 | 地区综合 价格 | 波动 | 553 | 波动 | 441 | 波动 | 421 | 波动 | 3303 | 波动 | | 新疆 | 8840 | 0 | 8600-8900 | 0 | 8900-9100 | 0 | 9000-9300 | 0 | 9800-10300 | 0 | | 云南 | 10020 | 0 | 9400-9600 | 0 | 9600-9900 | 0 | 9900-10100 | 0 | 10500-10600 | 0 | | 福建 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 四川 | 9900 | 0 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 9800-10000 | 0 | --- | --- | | 全国综合价格 | 9196 | 0 | 8764 | 0 | 91 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment, with short - term expectations of wide - range fluctuations. For the long - term, no clear view is given [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the spot trading is average, and the quotation is relatively stable. In August, the supply side has a large increase, and the downstream production schedule has a slight increase. The market is greatly affected by the anti - involution policy, with large short - term fluctuations and expectations of wide - range shocks. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [3][6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On August 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 9050 yuan/ton and closed at 8840 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton (- 1.12%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 278,860 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,658 lots, a decrease of 102 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon and 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was 11500 - 12500 yuan/ton. Recently, the silicone price has weakened. The main reason is the lack of downstream orders, so downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory, with low willingness to purchase new products and a significant decline in new order volume [1]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 52800 yuan/ton and closed at 51800 yuan/ton, a change of 0.69% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,055 lots (139,739 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 481,809 lots [3]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 23.30 (a month - on - month change of 1.75%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.11GW (a month - on - month change of 5.29%). The weekly polysilicon output was 29,400 tons (a month - on - month change of 10.94%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW (a month - on - month change of 9.27%) [3]. - **Demand Side**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.55 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W. Anhui Jiaokong Resources Co., Ltd. issued a tender announcement for 120.28MW photovoltaic components for a highway EPC project, with an estimated contract value of 85 million yuan and a unit price of 0.71 yuan/W [3][5]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Range trading [2]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: None [2]. - **Futures - cash**: None [2]. - **Options**: None [2]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading; medium - to - long - term buying on dips [6]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [6]. - **Inter - commodity**: None [6]. - **Futures - cash**: None [6]. - **Options**: None [6].

Group 1: Research View - On August 12, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.12%. The position increased by 6,917 lots to 279,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 150 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.69%. The position decreased by 3,684 lots to 136,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials also dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 6,005 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south of industrial silicon continued to resume production, and the downstream crystalline silicon production increased significantly. The supply and demand showed a double - increase pattern, and it will continue to fluctuate following the sentiment of coking coal in the short term. Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in many provinces put forward a joint initiative against involution. In the short term, relevant news may become an important driver for the industrial silicon futures market [2]. - After the polysilicon futures market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market traded on a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit is relatively obvious. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton on August 11 to 8,905 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 8,860 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - The spot prices of most grades of industrial silicon remained stable, except for some minor price increases in the 421 grade in certain regions. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened from 90 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 102 to 50,658 (daily), and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 880 to 251,700 tons (weekly). The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,100 tons to 444,000 tons [4]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 52,985 yuan/ton on August 11 to 51,800 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 1,185 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 52,985 yuan/ton to 50,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,480 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of some polysilicon materials increased, while the prices of P - type polysilicon materials remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 8,485 yuan/ton to 6,005 yuan/ton [4]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 240 to 4,940 (daily). The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons (weekly), and the factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 12,500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [25][27][28]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 11, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 9,000 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.83%, and the position increasing by 33,258 lots to 272,000 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,540 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 90 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main contract 2511 closing at 52,985 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 6.34%, and the position increasing by 2,143 lots to 139,800 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 6,005 yuan/ton. [2] - Industrial silicon production in the north and south continued to resume, and the production of downstream crystalline silicon increased significantly, resulting in a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate following the sentiment of coal and coke. Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in many provinces have put forward a joint initiative against involution, and relevant news may become an important driver for guiding the industrial silicon market in the short term. After the polysilicon market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market is trading a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit is relatively obvious. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices showed different trends on August 11. Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, and polysilicon fluctuated higher. The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is a double - increase, and it is affected by coal - coke sentiment and industry association initiatives. The polysilicon market is affected by news such as capacity storage. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,585 yuan/ton on August 8 to 8,940 yuan/ton on August 11, an increase of 355 yuan/ton; the settlement price of the near - month contract increased from 8,645 yuan/ton to 8,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. [4] - **Industrial Silicon Spot**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions showed different degrees of increase or remained stable. For example, the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China increased from 9,100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon in Xinjiang increased from 8,900 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton. [4] - **Polysilicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 50,790 yuan/ton on August 8 to 52,985 yuan/ton on August 11, an increase of 2,195 yuan/ton; the settlement price of the near - month contract decreased from 50,790 yuan/ton to 50,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton. [4] - **Polysilicon Spot**: The prices of some types of polysilicon increased, such as the price of N - type granular silicon material increasing from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged. [4] - **Organic Silicon Spot**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton. [4] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 420 to 50,760; the weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 880 to 251,700 tons; the factory inventory increased by 4,100 to 272,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,100 to 444,000 tons. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,080 to 4,700; the weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons; the factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [5][7][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [13][14][16] - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon. [19][22] - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main producing areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [25][27][28] 4.有色金属团队介绍 - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience, mainly responsible for precious metals and serving as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, with in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, with a focus on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy. [33][34]