1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of industrial silicon is fluctuating and adjusting. In the short - term, market sentiment is volatile, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon may be weak, and the organic silicon demand is relatively stable in the short - term. The polysilicon market is affected by legal risk concerns and market sentiment, with futures prices dropping and spot - price fluctuations. The market is waiting for the implementation of policies and the actual situation of transactions [16][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly to 2.54 tons. The DMC production was 44,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [14]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 5.123 million tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, market inventory increased by 1,000 tons, and registered warrant inventory increased by 3,300 tons [14]. - **Price**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday. The spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The SMM - statistical average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 55 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The average price of N - type dense material was 54.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.75 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,620 yuan/ton from before the holiday [15][23][26]. - **Cost**: The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, 9,720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,966.67 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The production cost of polysilicon was 42,795.37 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 16,415.16 yuan/ton [15][17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday. The spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from before the holiday [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of January 9, 2026, the SMM - statistical average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 55 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The average price of N - type dense material was 54.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.75 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,620 yuan/ton from before the holiday [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week. In December 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 355,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December decreased by 652,300 tons or 13.86% year - on - year [31]. - **Output in Main Production Areas**: The electricity price and silica price in main production areas remained unchanged week - on - week. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, 9,720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,966.67 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [43][46]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 5.123 million tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, market inventory increased by 1,000 tons, and registered warrant inventory increased by 3,300 tons [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 25,400 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week. In December, the output was 115,500 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 1.3052 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 254,600 tons [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduled Production**: The operating rate of polysilicon in December was 42.23%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points from the previous month. The expected output in January was 107,800 tons, continuing to decline [57]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 311,800 tons, and the SMM - statistical inventory was 302,000 tons [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of polysilicon was 42,795.37 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 16,415.16 yuan/ton [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.52 GW, remaining stable. In December, the output was 43.9 GW, a decrease of 10.47 GW from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 647.09 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46%. The inventory was 26.23 GW, a slight increase. The predicted output in January was 45.2 GW, remaining basically unchanged [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In December, the output of battery cells was 46.76 GW, a decrease of 8.85 GW from the previous month. The operating rate was 47.11%, a decrease of 8.93 percentage points from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 669.48 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%. The inventory was 8.92 GW, remaining unchanged. The expected output in January was 39.36 GW, a significant decrease [75][78]. - **Module**: In December, the output of modules was 38.7 GW, a decrease of 8.2 GW from the previous month. The operating rate was 37.57%, a decrease of 8.14 percentage points from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 563.2 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The inventory was 30 GW, a slight decrease. The expected output in January was 32.47 GW, a decrease from December [83][86]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Output**: As of January 9, 2026, the DMC output was 44,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week. In December, the output was 204,800 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 2.477 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [93]. - **Price and Profit**: The average price of organic silicon was 13,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The DMC gross profit was 1,609.38 yuan/ton [96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the DMC inventory was 44,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week [99]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of January 9, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,420 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 23,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,210 yuan/ton. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 58% [105][108]. - **Exports**: From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [111].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. With both supply and demand decreasing, along with the transmission effect of rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices, price support is obvious. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory depletion progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [1][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate around 53,000 yuan/ton. Policy factors may have contributed to the sharp price drop. In the off - season of the photovoltaic market, terminal demand is weak, downstream inventories are abundant, and substantial market demand is sluggish. In the short term, pay attention to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the long term, focus on the implementation of the storage policy and inventory depletion progress [3][6]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Price and Trading Data - On January 8, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,535 yuan/ton, a change of - 405 yuan/ton (- 4.53%) from the previous day's settlement. At the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 260,531 lots. On January 7, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,799 lots, a change of 112 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Side - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.7 million tons, a change of 0.36% from the previous week [1]. Demand Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. Recently, an orange pollution alert was issued in Shihezi, Xinjiang, and the expected supply contraction supported the price increase. The weekly output of silicone enterprises changed little. Under the background of emission reduction and price support, silicone monomer enterprises began to reduce production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The recycled aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the reduced - production state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [2]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon Price and Trading Data - On January 8, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fell sharply to the daily limit, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,610 yuan/ton, a 9.00% drop from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 58,049 lots (67,800 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 39,605 lots [3]. Supply and Inventory - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. N - type material was 52.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (unit not specified), a 0.90% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 23.19GW, a 6.92% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 5.10% change, and silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a - 1.45% change [3]. Downstream Product Prices - Silicon wafers: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece. - Battery cells: High - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W. - Components: PERC182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm mainstream transaction price was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm mainstream transaction price was 0.71 - 0.72 yuan/W [4][5]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate in the range around 53,000 yuan/ton. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 7, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,980 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.07%, and the open interest increasing by 10,123 lots to 245,000 lots. Polysilicon showed a volatile and weaker trend, with the main contract 2605 closing at 58,300 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.13%, and the open interest decreasing by 4,553 lots to 67,800 lots [2]. - The production center of industrial silicon continues to shift northward. Although there is a reduction in production due to environmental protection, it cannot offset the decline in demand. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and one can consider short - selling on rebounds [2]. - In January, industry self - discipline and joint production cuts of silicon materials are expected to lead to an unexpected reduction in polysilicon supply, providing strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's risk control and position limits, the upward premium space is tightened [2]. - Pay attention to the implementation of production cuts by silicon material factories, downstream receiving sentiment, and the inventory dynamics of the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected supply reduction in January [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,900 yuan/ton on January 6 to 8,980 yuan/ton on January 7, a rise of 80 yuan/ton. The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 59,365 yuan/ton on January 6 to 58,300 yuan/ton on January 7, a decline of 1,065 yuan/ton. The spot premium changed from - 5,865 yuan/ton to - 4,800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 112 to 10,799, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,340, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and DMC [21][24]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [34][35].

Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Silicon Material Production Cut, Short at High Levels" and "Polysilicon: Greatly Affected by News" [1][2] - The core view is that for industrial silicon, with silicon material production cuts, it's advisable to short at high levels; polysilicon is greatly affected by news [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 3: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,980 yuan/ton, with a change trend compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Si2605 trading volume is 477,386 lots, with significant changes over different time periods [2] - Si2605 open interest is 244,734 lots, showing different change trends [2] - PS2605 closing price is 58,300 yuan/ton, down 1,065 yuan from T - 1 [2] - PS2605 trading volume is 20,581 lots, with a large decrease compared to T - 5 [2] - PS2605 open interest is 67,800 lots, showing a downward trend [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount has different values when benchmarked against different products, such as +270 yuan/ton when benchmarked against East China Si5530 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T - 1 and T - 5, but a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 22 [2] - Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock price is 53500 yuan/ton, with an increase compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit for Xinjiang new standard 553 is - 2346.5 yuan/ton, showing different change trends [2] - Silicon plant profit for Yunnan new standard 553 is - 4654 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.1 yuan/kg, showing an increasing trend [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 million tons, with a change of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 5 [2] - Industrial silicon enterprise inventory is 20.2 million tons, up 0.68 million tons compared to T - 5 [2] - Industrial silicon industry inventory is 75.9 million tons, showing an increase [2] - Industrial silicon futures warehouse receipt inventory is 5.4 million tons, with a certain change trend [2] - Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 30.6 million tons, showing an upward trend [2] Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan have different values and change trends [2] - Wash coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia remain unchanged [2] - Petroleum coke prices of Maoming Coke and Yangtze Coke show no change [2] - Electrode prices of graphite electrode and carbon electrode remain stable [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have different values and change trends [2] Organic Silicon - DMC price is 13600 yuan/ton, with a decrease compared to T - 22 [2] - DMC enterprise profit is 1560 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend [2] Aluminum Alloy - ADC12 price is 23700 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend [2] - Recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 440 yuan/ton, with different change trends [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On December 5, 2025, the Shanxi Provincial People's Government released a proposal to promote energy transformation during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, aiming to transform from a coal - rich province to an energy - strong province [2][4] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is - 1, indicating different market outlooks [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 双硅同步走强，减产支撑上行 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-06，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8730元/吨，最后收于8900元/吨，较前一日结算变化（120） 元/吨，变化（1.37）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓234611手，2026-01-05仓单总数为10687手，较前一日变化 456手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周变化0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。近日新疆石河子地区发布污染橙色警报，供应预 期收缩，短期供应压力减少支撑价格上行。有机硅企业周度产量环比变化有限。减排挺价背景下，有机硅单体企 业从12月初开始陆续降负减产。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,900 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.37%, and open interest increasing by 17,319 lots to 235,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot remained stable at 9,603 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 59,365 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.69%, and open interest decreasing by 2,218 lots to 72,000 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type recycled polysilicon material was raised to 53,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 53,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,865 yuan/ton [2]. - The main production area of industrial silicon continues to shift northward. Although there are production cuts due to environmental controls, it is difficult to offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon has limited production cuts, silicone has joint production cuts, and aluminum alloy has environmental production cuts. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [2]. - Although the recent increase in battery cells has led to price increases in the photovoltaic industry chain, due to the blockage in the component link, the effect of further price increases is limited, and downstream industries have further expanded production cuts. In January, with industry self - discipline and joint production cuts in silicon materials, polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected reduction in supply, providing strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's risk control and position limits, the upward premium space is tightened. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by silicon material factories, downstream purchasing sentiment, and inventory dynamics in the industrial chain [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - Analysis of the price trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon on January 6, including futures prices, open interest changes, spot prices, and spot - futures basis. Evaluation of the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon and polysilicon, and corresponding investment suggestions [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,730 yuan/ton on January 5 to 8,900 yuan/ton on January 6, an increase of 170 yuan/ton. The prices of various spot grades of industrial silicon remained stable, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 50 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 456 to 10,687, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,750 tons to 448,400 tons [2][4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 58,645 yuan/ton on January 5 to 59,365 yuan/ton on January 6, an increase of 720 yuan/ton. The prices of various spot grades of polysilicon increased or remained stable, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,865 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 310 to 4,340, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons. The total social inventory increased by 26,000 tons to 308,000 tons [2][4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 13,700 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades, grade spreads, regional spreads of industrial silicon, as well as electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories and inventory changes, weekly polysilicon inventories, and weekly DMC inventories [21][22][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit [26][28][31].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 5, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,730 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.24%, and an increase of 13,298 lots in positions to 217,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,603 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 120 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 58,645 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.31%, and a decrease of 1,797 lots in positions to 75,000 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type re - fed silicon material was raised to 53,250 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 53,250 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,395 yuan/ton [2]. - The main production area of industrial silicon continues to shift northward. Although there is a reduction in production due to environmental protection, it cannot offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon has limited production cuts, the organic silicon industry has a collective production cut, and the aluminum alloy industry has an environmental protection - related production cut. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, so it is advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds [2]. - Although the recent increase in battery cells has led to a price increase in the photovoltaic industry chain, due to the blockage in the component link, the effect of further price increases is limited, and downstream enterprises have further expanded the scale of production cuts. In January, industry self - discipline and joint production cuts of silicon materials are expected to lead to an unexpected reduction in polysilicon supply, providing strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's implementation of risk control and position limits, the upward premium space is tightened. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by silicon material factories, the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises, and the inventory dynamics of the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, and polysilicon fluctuated strongly on January 5. Industrial silicon has cost - support but lacks upward drivers, and polysilicon may have an unexpected supply reduction [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,730 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 145 yuan/ton to 8,630 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 120 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,231, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,750 tons to 448,400 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 725 yuan/ton to 58,645 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 830 yuan/ton to 58,500 yuan/ton. The prices of some polysilicon products increased, with the current lowest deliverable product price rising to 53,250 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widening to 5,395 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,030, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons, and the social inventory increased by 26,000 tons to 308,000 tons [4]. - Organic silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial silicon and cost - side prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. - **Downstream product prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures inventories, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories, weekly industrial silicon inventory changes, weekly polysilicon inventories, and weekly DMC inventories [21][22][24]. - **Cost - profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the non - ferrous metal and new energy industries, and have won many industry - related awards [34][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate between 8,625 - 8,835 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to decrease, the demand side shows short - term increase in silicon wafer production and is expected to decline in the medium - term, cell production decreases continuously, module production decreases continuously, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 57,455 - 59,835 [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level of 306,000 tons; silicone inventory is at a low level of 53,200 tons; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 70,200 tons; social inventory is 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase; major port inventory is 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang region is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 5, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 470 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is predicted to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a 1.45% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 231,900 tons, a 6.91% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase from the previous month. In December, cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease. The estimated module output in January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, module production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,400 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 5, the price of N - type dense material was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 5,395 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions decreased [9]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.97% - 1.65% [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate of some contracts exceeding 100% [16]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,231 [16]. - **Organosilicon**: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease from the previous week; the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%; the daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton; the monthly DMC inventory was 53,200 tons, a 21.18% increase from the previous month [16]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, a 2.90% increase from the previous day; the daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 90 yuan/ton, an 80.35% decrease from the previous day [16]. Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of most daily silicon wafers remained unchanged; the weekly silicon wafer output was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week; the weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [18]. - **Cell**: The prices of most daily cells remained unchanged; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease from the previous week; the monthly photovoltaic cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Module**: The prices of most daily modules remained unchanged; the monthly module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease from the previous month; the domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month; the European module inventory was 31.3GW, a 5.44% decrease from the previous month [18]. 3. Industrial Silicon Downstream Market Organosilicon - **DMC Price and Production**: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate showed a certain fluctuation; the DMC price and cost remained relatively stable; the weekly DMC production showed a downward trend [44]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed a certain degree of stability [46]. - **Import and Export and Inventory**: The DMC monthly export and import volumes showed certain fluctuations; the DMC inventory showed an upward trend [51]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: The waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, and aluminum scrap import volume showed certain fluctuations; the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price showed an upward trend; the import ADC12 cost and profit showed certain changes [54]. - **Inventory and Output**: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed certain fluctuations; the weekly opening rates of primary aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy showed a downward trend; the aluminum alloy ingot social inventory showed a downward trend [57]. - **Demand**: The monthly output and sales of automobiles showed certain fluctuations; the export of aluminum alloy wheels showed a certain trend [58]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Situation**: The polysilicon industry cost showed a certain trend; the polysilicon price showed a downward trend; the polysilicon total inventory showed an upward trend; the polysilicon monthly output and opening rate showed certain fluctuations; the polysilicon monthly demand showed a downward trend [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The polysilicon supply, import, export, and consumption showed certain fluctuations, and the supply - demand balance showed a trend of change [67]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The silicon wafer price showed a certain trend; the silicon wafer weekly output and inventory showed certain fluctuations; the silicon wafer monthly demand showed a downward trend; the net export of single - crystal silicon wafers and polysilicon wafers showed certain fluctuations [70]. - **Cell**: The price of single - crystal P/N type cells showed a certain trend; the cell production scheduling and actual output showed certain fluctuations; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories showed a downward trend; the photovoltaic cell opening rate showed a certain trend; the cell export showed an upward trend [73]. - **Photovoltaic Module**: The module price showed a certain trend; the domestic and European photovoltaic module inventories showed a downward trend; the module monthly output showed a downward trend; the module export showed an upward trend [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import and export volume, photovoltaic glass monthly output, and export volume, high - purity quartz sand price, and welding strip import and export volume all showed certain fluctuations [79]. - **Component Composition Cost and Profit**: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit and cost, cell profit and cost, and component profit and cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components all showed certain fluctuations [81]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation**: The national new power generation installed capacity, power generation structure and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation all showed certain trends [83].

Price Analysis - The main contract for industrial silicon showed a fluctuating upward trend this week, with prices rising from 8685 CNY/ton to 8800 CNY/ton, a cumulative increase of approximately 2.19%. The highest price reached 8940 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 8555 CNY/ton, with overall volatility controlled within 4% [2][3] - The spot price for industrial silicon remained stable, with slight increases in some specifications. As of December 25, the price for SMM East China 553 silicon was between 9200-9300 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton week-on-week, while 441 silicon remained stable at 9300-9500 CNY/ton [2][3] Supply Dynamics - Recent trends indicate a reduction in industrial silicon supply, with a current supply still relatively loose under a dual reduction in supply and demand. Silicon producers are facing pressure on prices due to their sales, while stable raw material prices provide cost support [3][4] - In the southwestern region, production levels have stabilized at low levels, with manufacturers holding inventory but showing weak willingness to sell due to low market prices and weak downstream purchasing capacity. In contrast, some manufacturers in the northwestern region have increased production, providing some price support [3][4] Demand Insights - According to SMM statistics, the expected domestic polysilicon production for December is 113,500 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1 tons month-on-month, indicating stability. Overall, industrial silicon demand is showing a slight decline as the year-end approaches [3][4] Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions is reported at 555,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [3][4] Cost and Profitability - Production costs for metallic silicon have increased slightly this week, primarily due to rising electricity prices in Sichuan. However, prices for raw materials such as petroleum coke, quartz, and electrodes remain stable. Future costs are expected to stabilize [4][5] - The overall production cost of industrial silicon remains stable, with raw material prices holding steady. The increase in prices has led to a rise in industrial silicon profits [4][5] Market Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with upward potential dependent on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory reduction progress. Downward pressure is limited by cost support and expectations of production cuts [5][6] Polysilicon Market Overview - The main contract for polysilicon exhibited a wide range of fluctuations this week, with prices peaking at 61,150 CNY/ton and dropping to 57,025 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly decline of 2.14% [7][8] - The latest weekly polysilicon production is reported at 25,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 1.20%. The overall supply for December continues to show a contraction trend, although the decrease is not significant [8][9] Demand and Inventory in Polysilicon - The overall demand for polysilicon is contracting due to a seasonal slowdown, with downstream production cuts leading to weak purchasing activity. High inventory levels are causing downstream companies to lack motivation for replenishment [8][9] - The latest polysilicon inventory is reported at 303,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.41% [8][9] Cost Structure in Polysilicon - Current cost changes in the polysilicon industry are minimal, with most companies reporting a total cost of around 45,000 CNY/ton, except for a few with lower electricity prices [8][9] Future Price Expectations - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain in the range of 57,000 to 61,000 CNY/ton, awaiting further clarity on the fundamentals. Short-term focus will be on new silicon wafer prices and January production plans, while long-term attention will be on the implementation of storage policies and inventory reduction progress [10][18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为30.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口利润为228元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为588.67元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...