Power Generation Sector - The core viewpoint is that the northern thermal power sector shows resilience while hydropower maintains stable growth, leading to an "overweight" rating for the public utility sector [1] - In Q1 2025, the profitability of national thermal power companies continues to grow, with northern thermal power plants outperforming southern ones [1] - The median PE ratios for thermal power companies have decreased from 15.7 in Q1 2023 to 10.4 in Q1 2025, indicating a decline in market confidence regarding the sustainability of profit improvements [1][2] - Hydropower companies maintained a high growth rate in Q1 2025, with a median profit growth rate of 26%, driven by improved water storage and scheduling [2] - The median PE ratios for hydropower companies were 16.7, 18.8, and 18.1 for Q1 2023, Q1 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively, reflecting stable performance and improved valuations for leading companies [2] Green Energy Sector - Green energy companies are facing profit pressure due to declining electricity prices and unfavorable wind conditions, with median net profit growth rates of -12% in 2024 and -4% in Q1 2025 [3] - The overall industry is experiencing a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits, with expectations of recovery in 2025 as wind energy utilization hours improve [3] - Since 2022, the valuation of green energy companies has been continuously revised downwards, with a projected median net profit growth rate of around 12% for 2025 [3] Yiwu Trade Data - Yiwu's import and export total reached 231.31 billion yuan in the first four months of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with exports growing by 15.3% and imports by 13.5% [5] - The market procurement trade method accounted for 81.7% of Yiwu's total exports, indicating a strong contribution from this trade model [5][6] - Exports to major markets such as Latin America, the EU, and ASEAN showed strong growth, with increases of 18.3%, 15.5%, and 12.3% respectively [6] - The import structure is improving, with a significant increase in imports of mechanical and electrical products by 73.4% in the first four months [7]

Macro Strategy - The central bank's balance sheet is expected to continue shrinking due to the recent reserve requirement ratio cut, which may lead to further "balance sheet reduction" [1][8] - The US-China trade negotiations have boosted market confidence, resulting in a significant rise in US Treasury yields and a drop in gold prices [1][10] - The April US CPI showed an unexpected decline, but concerns about tariff risks remain, leading to cautious inflation outlooks [1][10] Fixed Income - The report analyzes the common characteristics of city investment platforms eligible to issue technology innovation bonds, emphasizing the importance of external ratings and financial independence from local governments [2][12] - City investment platforms with high credit ratings and low dependence on local government support are more likely to successfully issue technology innovation bonds [2][13] Industry - The issuance of the "Ecological Environment Protection Supervision Work Regulations" aims to enhance environmental governance and support high-quality development [3][14] - The solid waste sector is expected to see improved cash flow and dividend payouts due to reduced capital expenditures and enhanced operational efficiency [3][15] - The public utility sector is witnessing regulatory changes in Guangdong, which may impact the pricing mechanisms for renewable energy projects [4][17] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power as summer approaches, highlighting specific companies such as China Yangtze Power and Huadian International [4][17] - The growth potential of nuclear power is emphasized, with several new approvals expected to enhance profitability and dividends [4][17] - The report suggests that green energy companies may benefit from improved asset quality and government support for historical subsidy issues [4][17] Specific Company Insights - Ruoyu Chen is positioned as a leading digital brand management company, with significant growth expected in its health product segment and an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6] - Chunqiu Electronics is experiencing steady revenue growth driven by the recovery in the PC market and the ramp-up of its magnesium alloy business for automotive applications [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the urgent need for green transformation in the context of global climate challenges, emphasizing the role of international cooperation, particularly among Global South countries, to drive positive demand and investment in green projects. Group 1: Green Transformation Challenges - The demand for green transformation is facing significant challenges, including a decline in demand and even negative demand in some areas [2] - The global climate crisis is becoming increasingly severe, making it difficult to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting temperature rise to within 2°C [2] - There is a risk of supply-demand mismatch during the green transition, necessitating strong government intervention and stimulus measures [2][3] Group 2: Role of Global South and China - Cooperation among Global South countries is crucial for reshaping the new world economic order and sustaining green transformation [3] - China is expected to play a significant role in leading positive demand and cooperation among developing countries [2][3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Green Projects - There is a substantial demand for investment in green electricity and clean energy projects, which can yield attractive returns [3] - If green electricity projects can ensure a compound annual return of 3%, international capital is likely to flow into these investments [3] Group 4: ESG Participation and Benefits - Over 1,000 Chinese listed companies have disclosed their carbon footprints, indicating a significant increase in participation in ESG principles [4] - Companies that adopt ESG practices can benefit from lower loan rates and shorter investment payback periods, enhancing their competitive edge [4] Group 5: Innovative Financial Paths - Exploring innovative financial pathways based on natural resources, such as a metal trading platform in Shanghai, aims to make the "green value" of resources visible in market pricing [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electricity and public utilities sector, focusing on the recovery of thermal power profitability and the catalytic effects of green energy policies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for significant profit recovery in the thermal power sector due to declining coal prices, which are expected to enhance profitability for thermal power companies [4][12]. - Water power companies are experiencing growth driven by improved water inflow, with some companies showing substantial profit increases [24][25]. - Nuclear power is facing short-term performance volatility but has long-term growth potential due to new unit installations [40][41]. - Green energy, particularly offshore wind, is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, while traditional green energy companies are under pressure but may see a restructuring of market order [4][24]. Summary by Sections Thermal Power - **Performance**: In 2024, companies like Huadian Energy and Datang Power saw significant profit increases of 281.93% and 229.70%, respectively, driven by lower coal costs and increased electricity demand [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Continued decline in coal prices is expected to lead to excess profits for thermal power companies, with coal prices dropping significantly from 855 RMB/ton in 2024 to 721 RMB/ton in Q1 2025 [12][15]. Hydropower - **Performance**: In 2024, companies such as Shaoneng Co. and Guizhou Power reported profit increases of 128.83% and 86.26%, respectively, due to improved water inflow [24][26]. - **Outlook**: The potential for further profit improvement exists if water inflow during the flood season exceeds expectations [35]. Nuclear Power - **Performance**: In 2024, China Nuclear Power reported a revenue increase of 3.09% but a profit decline of 17.38% due to rising tax expenses [40]. - **Outlook**: The long-term growth potential remains strong with new nuclear units expected to come online, enhancing future profitability [41]. Green Energy - **Performance**: Offshore wind companies like Fujian Haifeng showed impressive growth, with some companies reporting a 43% increase in Q1 2025 [4][24]. - **Outlook**: The report suggests focusing on policy catalysts for offshore wind and the potential restructuring of traditional green energy companies due to market pressures [4][24].

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

2、 《 煤价跌倒，火电吃饱 》摘要 ■ 今年4月21日，国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会再度提到"游戏"行业，这标志着游戏行业再次被纳 ■ 经济增速不如预期，但用电增速已在3月得到改善，表明用电量进入底部区域，市场对用电量的负 面预期已大幅钝化。 ■ 发改委和能源局发布了煤电升级专项行动方案，推动煤电机组改造升级，增强灵活调节能力，预计 煤电在现货市场中的表现将大幅提升。 ■ 煤价下跌对火电企业构成明显利好，尽管电价有所下调，但电价下跌幅度远小于煤价带来的成本降 低，火电企业的盈利能力因此得到提升。 ■ 预计到2027年，AI产业链的用电量将达到三峡水电站全年的发电量，这为电力需求提供了强劲的增 长动力。 ■ 随着煤价下跌，火电企业的成本降低，股息率有望提升，特别是对于一些高股息的火电企业（如华 电国际、华能国际等），将吸引更多的长线资金。 ■ 尽管绿电板块普遍回调，但部分优质绿电PE仍具备较好的底部价值，A股和港股的部分绿电公司如 龙源电力H、中闽能源具有不错的投资潜力。 ■ 由于煤价下跌，火电企业股息率有望提升，投资者可以关注股息率较高的火电公司，如华电国际 （H股25E股息率6.5%）、华能国际（H股股息 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with all three major indices closing in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.1% to 3426.43 points, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 0.32% to 10979.05 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.28% to 2222.35 points. The Northbound Trading Index saw a significant decline of 2.85% [1] Sector Performance Reducer Concept - The reducer concept saw a strong rally, with several stocks hitting the daily limit. Notable performers included Shuangfei Group, Shaoneng Co., Qinghai Huading, and Ningbo Dongli, all of which reached their daily limit. Tongli Technology rose over 10%, while Hangzhou Gear's stock increased nearly 6%. Year-to-date, stocks like Shuangfei Group and Xiangyang Bearing have seen gains exceeding 100% [3][4] Green Energy Concept - The green energy sector was active, with stocks such as Shaoneng Co., Yatong Co., Linzhou Heavy Machinery, and others hitting their daily limit. Jin Gu Co. rose by over 8% [8][9] Industry Insights Reducer Market - According to Mitu Consulting, reducers account for 13% of the core component value of humanoid robots. The market size for harmonic reducers in China is projected to reach 2.6 billion yuan in 2023, with the demand for 1 million humanoid robots potentially generating a market size of 11.2 billion yuan for harmonic reducers. The domestic market is currently dominated by Japanese manufacturers, with Harmonic holding a 40% market share and Green Harmonic following with 18% [5][6] Green Certificate Market - A joint opinion from several government departments aims to promote the high-quality development of the green certificate market. By 2027, the trading system for green certificates is expected to be fundamentally improved, with a combination of mandatory and voluntary consumption mechanisms. The market is anticipated to see significant growth, with a more efficient operation by 2030 [10][11] Company Highlights BYD - BYD's stock reached a new high, climbing nearly 4% to 399 yuan per share during trading, closing at 397.07 yuan, a 3.25% increase. The company recently launched its Super e-platform, featuring advanced technologies aimed at alleviating range anxiety for electric vehicle users. The introduction of an employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance stakeholder alignment and boost market confidence [12][13]

证券研究报告| 行业周报 2025 年 03 月 02 日 电力 煤价加速下跌重视火电超额机会，2025 能源工作强调绿色保供 本周行情回顾：本周（2.24-2.28）上证指数报收 3320.90 点，下降 1.72%，沪深 300 指数报收 3890.05 点，下降 2.22%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2752.47 点，下降 1.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.19pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜 第 15 位。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：本周煤价快速下跌至 700 元/吨附近，重视火电超额机会。市场对于 电价预期已经相对充分，区域电价风险基本出清、煤价下跌或超预期，建议关注 重点火电标的：皖能电力、申能股份、华电国际、浙能电力。推荐布局低估绿电板 块，推荐优先关注低估港股绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、 龙源电力（H）、中闽能源、福能股份。把握水核防御，水电板块，建议关注长江 电力、国投电力、川投能源、华能水电；核电板块，建议关注中国核电和中国广核。 风险提示：原料价格超预期上涨；项目建设进度不及预期；电力辅助服务市场、绿 证交易等政策不及预期。 增持（维持） 行业走势 ...

证券研究报告| 行业周报 2025 年 03 月 02 日 电力 煤价加速下跌重视火电超额机会，2025 能源工作强调绿色保供 本周行情回顾：本周（2.24-2.28）上证指数报收 3320.90 点，下降 1.72%，沪深 300 指数报收 3890.05 点，下降 2.22%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2752.47 点，下降 1.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.19pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜 第 15 位。 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 本周行业观点： 投资建议：本周煤价快速下跌至 700 元/吨附近，重视火电超额机会。市场对于 电价预期已经相对充分，区域电价风险基本出清、煤价下跌或超预期，建议关注 重点火电标的：皖能电力、申能股份、华电国际、浙能电力。推荐布局低估绿电板 块，推荐优先关注低估港股绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、 龙源电力（H）、中闽能源、福能股份。把握水核防御，水电板块，建议关注长江 电力、国投电力、川投能源、华能水电；核电板块，建议关注中国核电和中国广核。 风险 ...