Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a significant surge, with spot silver prices rising over 5% in a single day, reaching a three-month high of $34.78 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand [1][3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks, particularly the attack by Ukraine on Russian airbases, and renewed trade tensions due to potential tariff increases by the Trump administration, have heightened market anxiety, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets like silver [3]. - U.S. economic data, including a drop in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.5 and a decline in export orders to a record low of 40.1, further fueled the demand for safe-haven assets [3]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand is projected to reach 22,110 tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of total demand, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [4]. - A tightening supply forecast indicates a growing supply deficit, expected to expand from 6,003 tons in 2024 to 7,248 tons by 2027, providing strong support for silver prices [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Trends - The surge in silver prices has led to a significant increase in trading volume, with a 120% rise in silver trading and a notable spike in investor inquiries [1][3]. - The iShares Silver Trust saw a record single-day increase in holdings, and silver-related stocks in the A-share market experienced substantial gains, indicating heightened investor interest [7]. - Volatility in the futures market has surged, with a 30-day volatility reaching 58%, and a significant increase in bullish sentiment reflected in the options market [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is a key focus, as stronger-than-expected results could dampen expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially leading to a price correction in silver [8][10]. - Despite short-term volatility risks, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a doubling in silver prices by year-end due to persistent supply shortages and structural growth in industrial demand [8][10].

美国银行分析指出，经历多年需求萎缩后，中国铂金首饰市场显现复苏迹象。4月中国铂金进口量达 11.5公吨，创下近一年来单月最高纪录。该机构认为，在金价持续走高的背景下，珠宝商正加速产品组 合多元化，这一趋势可能重塑全球铂金需求格局。 截至周一收盘，6月交割的COMEX黄金期货小幅上涨0.3%，报3332.10美元/盎司;白银期货涨幅达 1.8%，收于36.68美元/盎司。但今年以来，铂金以32%的涨幅大幅跑赢黄金(26%)和白银(26%)，成为贵 金属板块最大亮点。 在贸易谈判进展与供需基本面双重驱动下，贵金属市场波动或将加剧。投资者需持续关注中美谈判细 节、中国实物需求变化及全球制造业复苏对工业贵金属需求的拉动效应。 智通财经APP获悉，受市场对中美贸易谈判进展的高度关注影响，贵金属市场周一呈现分化走势：在美 元走弱的支撑下，黄金价格小幅攀升，但铂金表现尤为抢眼，单日涨幅达7.8%，收盘价飙升至每盎司 1225.70美元，创下2021年5月以来新高。这已是铂金连续第二周大幅上扬，上周累计涨幅已达10%。 尽管地缘政治不确定性仍存，但部分分析师指出，市场对中美两大经济体或将在谈判中达成阶段性协议 的预期升温，可 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong demand growth, insufficient supply release, and a long - term bullish trend in gold, geopolitical crises, continuous central bank gold purchases, a loose monetary environment, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit support the long - term strength of gold prices. The report maintains that gold is expected to reach a high of $3,800 - $4,000 per ounce this year, corresponding to a RMB price of 880 - 930 yuan per gram. For silver, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan per kilogram this year, with the US silver above $42 per ounce. Investors can buy long positions in gold and silver on dips [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Silver Market Demand - Silver is the core material for photovoltaic cell conductive paste, with about 80 tons of silver consumed per 1GW of photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2024, global new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 600GW, and the demand for silver paste increased by over 25% year - on - year. In 2025, global photovoltaic installed capacity continued to grow steadily, leading to a rapid increase in the industrial demand for silver. It is predicted that global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from 390GW in 2023 to 1000GW in 2030. In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 277.57GW, maintaining its global leading position and strongly supporting domestic silver demand. Additionally, the semiconductor industry, servers, and high - performance chips also show a surging demand for silver conduction [5]. Supply - 70% of global silver is a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc mines. Affected by the low prices of base metals, global silver production has declined in recent years. In 2024, global silver production was 25,000 tons, a 2% year - on - year decline. The contraction in supply has led to a 45% decline in the London Bullion Market Association's silver inventory over the past three years to 26,000 tons, only enough to cover 5 months of industrial demand [8]. Price Influence - Silver has both industrial and precious metal attributes and is affected by gold prices. The current domestic "silver/gold" ratio is around 11.2, which is in the undervalued area [11]. Geopolitical Factors - On June 1, 2025, the Russia - Ukraine conflict reached a historic turning point. Ukraine launched a special military operation, and Russia urgently initiated the deployment procedure of 300,000 - ton strategic nuclear weapons, casting a shadow of nuclear deterrence over Eurasia. In addition, the situations in India - Pakistan and the Middle East remain unstable, which drives up the prices of precious metals [14]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in April 2025, which was the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases since November 2024. Since November 2022, the central bank has restarted gold purchases, buying 62.21 tons in 2022, 224.88 tons in 2023, 44.17 tons in 2024, and 14.9 tons in the first four months of 2025. As of the end of April, the central bank held 2,295 tons of gold, indicating the substitution demand for US dollar assets and the official recognition of the long - term value of gold [15]. Monetary Policy - On May 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market. This was the second reserve requirement ratio cut since September 2024. Since 2021, China has been in a cycle of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the interest rate level has been declining. In addition, the monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States are also becoming more accommodative. The Federal Reserve entered an interest rate cut cycle in December 2023, and there is still an expectation of several interest rate cuts this year. Europe is also in a long - term interest rate cut cycle. The global loose monetary environment remains unchanged, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by major economies will further push up the price of gold [18][20]. US Dollar and Gold - The US federal government debt reached $37 trillion in May 2025, up from $36 trillion in November 2024, with the debt scale expanding at an accelerating pace. The Federal Reserve's continuous bond purchases have led to currency over - issuance, weakening the US dollar's purchasing power in the long run. When the US dollar's credit is damaged, gold, as a non - credit currency, is often favored. The US dollar is likely to enter a long - term depreciation channel, and gold will benefit from the currency substitution demand. Recently, the US dollar index has continued to decline, falling below 110 since January [22][23]. Gold Price Technical Analysis - Technically, the gold price is still supported by the support line. Every "pullback" is supported by the strong support line, and May was no exception. Now, gold has returned to the upward price trend [24].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand, with recent developments indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming years [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On June 5, silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with London silver reaching $36.053 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [3]. - The announcement by the Trump administration to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to heightened speculation that similar measures may be applied to other metals, including silver, thus increasing its demand as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Silver futures saw a significant increase in long positions, with total holdings rising by $2.8 billion, the largest two-day increase in the past year [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Demand - The recent economic uncertainty, highlighted by a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, has led to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3][6]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly in clean energy technologies, with the silver market facing a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3][6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - Analysts predict that the price gap between silver and gold may narrow from the current 27 percentage points to 10-15 percentage points over the next 1-2 years, driven by various economic factors [6][7]. - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, which could attract investors and drive prices higher [6][7].

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...

2025.04. 29 4月22日，现货黄金价格一度突破3500美元/盎司的历史高位，点燃市场热情，但随后迅速回落，截至4月29日已跌至3324美元/盎司附近。 剧烈震荡下，部分投资者转向白银、铂金等贵金属，并推动其价格同步走强，其中COMEX白银期货近期最高触及35.5美元/盎司创12年新高，NYME铂 金期货冲破1000美元/盎司关口，年内累计涨幅约10%。 投资风向的转变，在消费市场上也有所体现。第一财经在上海看到，多家金店虽然人头攒动，但不少消费者不再只盯着黄金饰品，而是开始在铂金、白银 饰品柜台前驻足挑选。"最近来问铂金、白银首饰的顾客明显多了。"上海市区一家金饰品牌店员说，大家都觉得现在买黄金饰品太贵，相比之下，铂金和 白银首饰不仅价格更实惠，款式也很多样，很适合日常佩戴。 本文字数：1974，阅读时长大约3分钟 导读 ：贵金属市场投资风向转变。 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 封面图作者 | 第一财经 任玉明 价格反转不断，国际金价最近波动加剧。 期货市场的数据方面，截至4月29日收盘，沪金期货小幅收涨0.46%，主力合约2508以786.98元/克收盘。黄金期货全部合约成交759488手，持仓量减 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the final implementation mode of Trump's tariffs at the beginning of April and is also awaiting new domestic policy signals. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - The central bank will choose the right time to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond futures market will maintain a strong oscillation range in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [48]. Summary by Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 3.341 million barrels last week. The market trading focus may shift to the supply - demand side. There is still accumulation pressure after the first quarter. Pay attention to the resistance at Brent $74 - 75 per barrel and SC 550 yuan per barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, continue to hold the strategy of shorting at high levels as supply fluctuations ease and加注 demand weakens. Low - sulfur fuel oil lacks upward drive but also has limited downward pressure, and its cracking spread is expected to continue to oscillate [21]. - **Asphalt**: The production of asphalt using diluted asphalt as raw material is still restricted. The planned asphalt production in China in April is 228.9 million tons. With the temperature rising, demand is expected to improve, and the fundamentals are marginally better [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Crude oil strength supports international prices. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand may decline. The supply - side pressure is limited, but the market may turn weaker in the later stage [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Despite better - than - expected US economic data, precious metals rose overnight. The gold price is in an upward trend but needs to be wary of corrections. Focus on the US PCE data tonight [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell back. High copper prices affect the de - stocking speed. Short - term adjustments are expected, and the decline range is limited [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the decline of non - ferrous metals. The de - stocking speed is faster than in previous years. Short - term oscillation is expected, and attention should be paid to the support at 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices opened low and moved lower. Mine production is advancing as scheduled, and supply is not tight. Consumption shows resilience but limited growth. Zinc is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 24,250 yuan per ton [7]. - **Lead**: The market is worried about new tariffs, leading to a decline in lead prices. The raw material supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The fundamentals are mixed, and it is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 17,880 yuan per ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly. High - nickel pig iron prices are strong. Nickel is expected to have short - term support around 130,000 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose. Pay attention to the technical resistance at 285,000 - 287,000 yuan. Track LME inventory and demand - side changes [10]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high. Spot prices are under pressure, and the decline may slow down, with limited rebound space [6]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds close to 75,000 yuan. The market demand lacks expansion space, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is suitable to try short - selling [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the implementation of the joint production - cut plan of northwest silicon enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price shows limited upward and downward drive. Spot prices are stable, and short - term narrow - range oscillation is expected [13]. - **Plastics and Fibers** - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The short - term bearish factors are digested, but the demand follows up slowly. The inventory is transferred to the intermediate links [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC production remains high, and there is high - inventory and high - supply pressure. The caustic soda industry also faces similar pressure, and the prices are in a weak pattern [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX rebounds at night. PTA follows the raw material fluctuations. Mid - term trends depend on energy support and terminal demand [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply is still high. Pay attention to the positive supply - side drivers in April [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: The short - fiber industry's fundamentals improve, and pay attention to the opportunity of processing margin recovery. The bottle - chip price follows the raw material, and the processing margin may be under pressure [31]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass spot sales are good, and the industry continues to de - stock. Pay attention to the sales volume. If it falls below 100%, consider closing long positions [32]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash continues to de - stock. Supply rebounds this week. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [34]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: The market awaits the US soybean planting intention report. Domestic bean meal basis is falling. After the arrival of a large number of soybeans, the basis may continue to decline. The mid - term trend is range - bound [35]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices are falling back. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. The price may test the bottom again [39]. - **Meat and Eggs** - **Pork**: The hog futures price oscillates slightly downwards. The long - term supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to move towards 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. The futures market maintains a bearish view [40]. - **Egg**: The egg spot price is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The mid - term spot price may decline, and the futures market maintains a bearish view in the mid - term [41]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rise. The US cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The demand for cotton is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected. The domestic sugar supply and demand show some positive factors, but the upward space is limited [43]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price corrects. The cold - storage apple inventory is low, and the demand is entering the peak season. The price may rise [44]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The log inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price falls slightly. The inventory decreases, and there are supply - reduction expectations. The demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) lacks an upward drive and may continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the shipping companies' price - supporting actions during the May Day holiday [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market volume rebounds slightly. The stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff policy and domestic policies [47]. - **Bond**: The bond futures close stably. The central bank will cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The market maintains a strong oscillation range, and a steepening strategy is recommended for hedging [48].