Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first four months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 21,170.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%[3] - The profit growth rate accelerated by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first three months of 2025[3] - In April 2025, profits increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from March 2025[3] Group 2: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies have significantly contributed to the recovery of industrial profits, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors[4] - Specialized equipment and general equipment industries saw profit growth of 13.2% and 11.7% respectively, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 9.0%, surpassing the average industrial growth rate by 7.6 percentage points[6] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products fell by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating persistent low prices that hinder profit growth[4] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% in the first four months of 2025, showing a slight recovery but still with significant room for improvement[5] - Industrial profit growth is expected to improve slightly in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 2.1%[8] Group 4: Trade and External Factors - The U.S. tariff war is expected to have a controllable impact on overall industrial profits, with an estimated profit loss of CNY 200 billion, accounting for 2.7% of total industrial profits in 2024[8] - Industries with high export exposure to the U.S., such as textiles and footwear, are facing significant pressure, with some experiencing negative growth[8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 27 日 工业利润: 新动能引领突出，应对关税战扰动 ——2025 年 1-4 月工业企业盈利数据的背后 核心观点 2025 年 1-4 月工业企业利润延续修复态势， "两新"政策持续发力，新动能行业拉动 工业利润增速作用增强，装备制造业、高技术制造业对利润增长贡献较为显著，积极 应对关税战扰动（部分轻工业承压负增长）。但工业品价格中枢仍处低位，以价换量特 征仍较为显著，工业企业利润增速在价格方面仍有较大改善空间。我们认为，工业企 业利润增速修复的持续性需要有效需求持续助力，同时推动工业品价格合理回升。美 国关税战对工业利润或有所冲击，但在总量层面或较为可控，结构上部分轻工业压力 较大，未来或主要依靠新动能行业持续发力应对。 ❑ "两新"政策持续助力盈利修复，价格偏低是主要拖累 2025 年 1-4 月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4%， 利润增速较 1-3 月加快 0.6 个百分点。其中 4 月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润 同比增长 3.0%，较 3 月份加快 0.4 个百分 ...

Core Insights - Dubai Industrial City has achieved significant growth since early 2024, with the number of resident companies increasing by over 10% year-on-year, surpassing 1,100 by the end of the year [2] - The number of operational factories has risen by over 16%, exceeding 350, indicating Dubai's strong appeal in attracting industrial investments [2] - Over 1.7 billion dirhams (approximately 3.34 billion RMB) in investments have been attracted in the past 12 months, focusing on key economic sectors such as food and beverage, heavy equipment, energy solutions, automotive, and light industry [2] - The food and beverage sector alone attracted over 350 million dirhams (approximately 687 million RMB) in investments in 2024, reinforcing its strategic importance in meeting local and regional market demands [2] - Future investment directions include infrastructure upgrades, power plant construction, labor accommodation expansion, and the introduction of new industrial land [2][3] Industry Development - Dubai Industrial City aims to support the UAE's industrial localization goals by creating a sustainable and integrated business environment, thereby increasing the industrial contribution to the national GDP [3] - Established in 2003, Dubai Industrial City is designed to attract global investors and promote the diversification of the UAE's industrial sector [3] - An expansion project was announced in May 2024, planning to add approximately 1.29 million square meters to further enhance local manufacturing capabilities [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the sales of new energy vehicles increased. The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in April were 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative wholesale from January to April this year was estimated to be 4 million, a year - on - year increase of 42 [1]. - In the first quarter, under the support of a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, large - scale light industrial enterprises achieved an operating income of 5.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, and a profit of over 300 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [1]. - In April, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 51.1%. The overall demand for logistics services maintained an expansion trend, with a significant recovery in the western region. The fixed - asset investment completion index reached a three - year high, and both railway and waterway investments maintained rapid growth [1]. - During the "May Day" holiday, consumption demand was strong. The sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 15.2% year - on - year. Driven by the "trade - in" policy, the sales revenue of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 167.5% year - on - year, communication equipment increased by 118% year - on - year, and furniture increased by 1.7 times year - on - year [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices continued to fluctuate due to tariffs [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: The prices of copper, zinc, and nickel fluctuated due to tariffs [2]. - Building materials: The prices of cement and building materials continued to decline [2]. - Chemical industry: The prices of PTA and soda ash declined compared to the same period last week [2]. Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PTA recovered; the operating rate of PX declined recently; the operating rates of polyester and urea were at this year's high [2]. - Infrastructure: The operating rate of asphalt reached a three - year low [2]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were the same as the same period last year, at a three - year low [2]. - Services: The number of international flights increased, while the number of domestic flights decreased compared to the same period [2]. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery | 69.91 | 82.75 | 79.77 | 76.10 | 77.76 | 9.80 | | Mining | 37.70 | 48.62 | 46.09 | 46.92 | 47.91 | 26.10 | | Chemical Industry | 68.63 | 69.46 | 66.11 | 62.01 | 63.09 | 3.30 | | Steel | 45.28 | 58.70 | 55.06 | 55.91 | 55.99 | 17.10 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 49.62 | 57.51 | 54.99 | 57.70 | 58.77 | 30.20 | | Electronics | 59.65 | 79.88 | 71.75 | 70.84 | 77.65 | 51.60 | | Automobile | 65.91 | 77.15 | 48.35 | 51.29 | 51.29 | 2.50 | | Household Appliances | 46.53 | 54.97 | 47.18 | 51.64 | 53.02 | 17.80 | | Food and Beverage | 44.33 | 44.75 | 44.82 | 45.90 | 45.51 | 14.70 | | Textile and Apparel | 51.60 | 63.87 | 52.58 | 54.15 | 55.00 | 12.90 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 80.48 | 191.11 | 199.42 | 167.39 | 165.50 | 9.10 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 59.52 | 67.28 | 69.00 | 72.61 | 73.82 | 33.80 | | Public Utilities | 27.75 | 33.02 | 33.01 | 33.96 | 33.99 | 28.80 | | Transportation | 35.15 | 37.54 | 36.21 | 37.50 | 38.14 | 16.80 | | Real Estate | 417.18 | 333.93 | 158.87 | 126.02 | 125.70 | 8.70 | | Commerce and Trade | 51.18 | 53.14 | 49.64 | 51.14 | 51.36 | 15.20 | | Leisure Services | 70.79 | 103.17 | 111.30 | 124.07 | 127.15 | 100.00 | | Banking | 28.82 | 22.57 | 26.31 | 20.39 | 19.75 | 6.80 | | Non - banking Finance | 34.34 | 35.93 | 34.43 | 35.19 | 35.76 | 19.10 | | Comprehensive | 67.08 | 52.21 | 47.75 | 50.35 | 51.02 | 7.70 | | Building Materials | 38.98 | 47.52 | 45.49 | 46.85 | 47.38 | 25.60 | | Building Decoration | 47.99 | 57.41 | 54.00 | 55.04 | 56.84 | 19.00 | | Electrical Equipment | 60.42 | 85.96 | 82.28 | 80.41 | 83.45 | 48.10 | | Machinery and Equipment | 38.80 | 45.15 | 42.70 | 45.46 | 48.31 | 37.00 | | Computer | 72.69 | 73.92 | 64.40 | 62.63 | 62.98 | 2.00 | | Media | 229.75 | 46.00 | 46.89 | 46.31 | 46.41 | 4.60 | | Communication | 232.58 | 39.43 | 32.45 | 29.14 | 28.75 | 3.60 | [46] Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 2282.9 | 1.33% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 5/7 | 6.6 | 2.22% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 8584.0 | - 2.01% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 14124.3 | - 1.04% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 5/7 | 21.0 | 2.09% | | | | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 78520.0 | 0.46% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 22758.0 | - 1.85% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 19630.0 | 2.26% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 125683.3 | 0.52% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 16637.5 | - 1.41% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 3177.2 | 0.81% | | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 781.4 | - 0.23% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 3377.5 | 1.43% | | | | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 5/7 | 15.2 | 2.57% | | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 14578.3 | 0.76% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 833.0 | - 0.86% | | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 5/7 | 59.1 | 2.20% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 5/7 | 62.2 | - 1.79% | | | Energy | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 4282.0 | 0.23% | | | | Coal price: coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 788.0 | - 0.38% | | | | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 4552.8 | 1.38% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 7500.0 | - 0.88% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 1906.7 | 1.60% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 1462.5 | - 2.66% | | | | National cement price index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 144.9 | - 2.24% | | | Real Estate | Building materials composite index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 116.1 | - 0.96% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Point | 5/7 | 100.3 | 0.00% | | [47]

以下文章来源于肖小跑 ，作者肖小跑 肖小跑 . 金融世界不讲道理的时候，向文史哲求救，大概率"叮"的一下就扣上了。因为在这里，您才能再次看到"人"：人的情绪，人的荒诞，人的大举 动小动作。这里有世界最本质的规律。 本文来自微信公众号： 肖小跑 ，作者：肖小跑，头图来自：视觉中国 虽然一切还没完全落地封死，但所有人都感觉到了让人喘不上气来的不确定性，和说不出具体在哪个位置的痛感。但这痛感落在每个人身上的分量是 不同的。"不惜一切代价"永远是有代价的。 目前我们听得到的声音，主要来自有时间、有精力、还有很大余地坐在桌前写文章、写小作文、发帖子、录播客的人。他们的痛感级别并不大，目前 内心热血澎湃，且看泱泱大国如何惩治恶霸。我也是其中一员，大家坐在舒适区里指点江山。 但那些没有发声的、发不出声的、没时间发声的人、企业和国家们，大概率痛感级别很大，六神无主。而他们才是大多数——包括外贸老板、凌晨三 点翻着汇率走势图的贸易人、已经搬去东南亚建厂的老板们、刚刚做了决定交了定金，但现在不知是否该继续"走出去"的老板们；还有大量刚刚有点 信心，现在又有点熄火的民营企业家们。 也包括那些夹在两个大国中间，但没有什么选择的小国家 ...

视觉 | 顾芗 动荡，是2025年4月的月度主题。 掀起全球贸易波涛的始作俑者，是美国总统特朗普。这位曾被视为"黑天鹅"的总统再度上任，仍然高举 MAGA(让美国继续伟大)的旗帜，并决意向全球市场投入一枚炸弹。 美东时间4月2日，特朗普签署"对等关税"行政令，宣布对美国所有进口产品征收至少10%的基础关税， 对60多个贸易逆差较大的经济体加征了额外关税，于4月9日生效，而中国被加征了34%的关税。 尽管这一天，被特朗普宣布为"解放日"，但政策宣布的第二天，美股应声暴跌，标普500跌幅达4.85%， 纳斯达克指数跌幅达5.99%。 关税战，重新打响，但事情不仅没有结束，反而向更癫狂的方向发展。 文 | 任早羽 编辑 | 何子维 值班编辑｜ 宝珠 4月2日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10％的"最低基准关税"，并对某些 贸易伙伴征收更高关税。/图源：新华社记者 胡友松 摄 4月7日，美国要求中国撤回34%的反制关税，翌日，美国宣布对中国出口美国商品加征关税到84%，到 美东时间4月9日，特朗普宣布对中国加税至125%。 美国以一种近似于赌博的加税态势，把全球秩序推到 ...