Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通策略方奕，作者：方奕、张逸飞、陶前陈、苏徽 摘要 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球 区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误， 2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策 预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金 回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始了。 春季行情规律：大盘搭台小盘唱戏 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a "first dip, then rise" pattern next week, presenting a favorable opportunity for positioning before the year-end market [3][13]. Market Analysis - After a high on Monday, the market entered a phase of fluctuation and adjustment, indicating significant investor divergence. The recent developments, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the economic work conference, aligned with expectations, providing more certainty and potentially lowering risk assessments. The upcoming "super central bank week" and Japan's interest rate trends may introduce uncertainties that could temporarily suppress risk evaluations [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of extreme risk styles is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to emerge in mid-cap blue-chip stocks, which are anticipated to rise again after a four-year lull [5][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been dormant for years, is approaching a turning point. Stocks in this sector, such as mid-sized liquor, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care, are expected to rebound due to price corrections and supply constraints [6][16]. 2. The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic minor metals (like antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, alongside traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [6][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: - **Aerospace and Satellites**: The sector is gaining strength, with expectations for continued event-driven catalysts, particularly in reusable rockets and accelerated industry IPOs [7][17]. - **Nuclear Fusion**: After a prolonged adjustment, the nuclear fusion sector is beginning to rebound, with anticipated industrial catalysts and a shift from theoretical research to engineering practice, suggesting significant future investment demand [7][17]. - **Consumer Sector**: Recent government initiatives to boost consumption indicate that policies aimed at improving domestic demand may become a central theme in 2026, particularly in service consumption [7][17]. - **Semiconductors**: Anticipated expansions in domestic wafer fabrication and the capitalization of leading domestic storage chip manufacturers present opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials [8][18]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, with structural growth in demand and supply constraints providing upward price elasticity for related commodities, particularly in non-ferrous metals, new energy upstream, and chemicals [8][17].

Group 1 - The article discusses a complaint against Hyatt's Yifei Hotel, where a guest reported multiple issues with their room, including air conditioning problems and water leaks, leading to a poor experience [3][5] - The hotel staff acknowledged the complaints and mentioned that management is handling the situation, but specific details on resolutions were not provided [5] - The article highlights the growing trend of consumer complaints in the hospitality industry, particularly regarding transparency and customer service [3][5] Group 2 - Huayi Brothers has reported a cumulative loss of 8.2 billion yuan over the past seven years, with its current market value being less than one-tenth of its peak [4] - The article notes that the average age of the labor force in China has risen to 39.66 years, indicating an aging population and potential implications for the labor market [6] - The article mentions that the global largest automotive safety testing center has been put into operation, which may impact the automotive industry standards and practices [6] Group 3 - The article reports that SpaceX is considering an IPO, with a target valuation of approximately 1.5 trillion dollars, which could make Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire [6][14] - Lululemon's market value has decreased by approximately 25 billion dollars over the past year, with a significant drop in stock price and leadership changes [11] - The article discusses the introduction of a new policy by the National Market Supervision Administration to prevent car manufacturers from selling vehicles below production costs, aiming to enhance market stability [7]

华谊兄弟7年巨亏82亿，总市值不及巅峰时十分之一 茅台将推出控量政策 全球最大汽车安全试验中心投入使用 消息人士称英伟达考虑提高H200芯片产量 防止AI人才外流，OpenAI调整薪酬政策 罗永浩炮轰凯悦逸扉酒店"祸害客人"，酒店工作人员回应 继炮轰西贝预制菜问题后，罗永浩又将矛头转向了一家酒店。近日，博主@烧饼炒面鸡蛋汤在社交平台发文称，自己以每日 1300余元的价格预订了一家凯悦旗下逸扉酒店的客房。由于该房间存在空调无法调温、卫生间漏水、水管异响等多重问题，导 致他两天一共只睡了7小时。更令其不满的是，酒店提前备好电扇应对空调问题，修理工也称噪音问题存在半年之久，却未在预 订环节提示任何风险。 随后，罗永浩转发了该博文，并评论称"凯悦逸扉酒店明知道房间有各种问题（每个问题都足以让客人没法正常休息），却仍然 在携程上架，每次出现纠纷时就试图搞点小恩小惠蒙混过去。每天收一千多块钱祸害不明真相的客人，入住一个没法睡觉的房 间，要不是最近实在忙不过来……" 12月14日，智通财经以消费者身份致电逸扉酒店了解相关投诉情况。酒店一名工作人员表示，针对网上反映的事件，目前高层 正在处理，不太清楚具体的进展。但她提及，涉 ...

多家航空公司和旅行社数据显示，近期中国赴日旅游咨询量与预订量明显下滑，截至11月20日，已累计 退订机票超过54万张。多个旅游团退单，部分中日航线也同步调减运力。这一变化引发日本业界的广泛 关注与担忧。 "12月的中国游客订单全部取消了，这使公司运营压力陡增。"日本名古屋一家旅游包车公司负责人近日 的无奈感叹，成为当前日本旅游业遭遇"寒潮"的缩影。近期，日本首相高市早苗公然发表涉台错误言 论，粗暴干涉中国内政，严重违背一个中国原则、中日四个政治文件精神和国际关系基本准则，由此引 发的民间交流降温，迅速波及日本旅游业。 近年来，日本出口产品竞争力下滑，旅游业成为其仅次于汽车出口的第二大外汇来源，而中国游客正是 日本旅游业的核心客源与消费主力。据日本政府观光局统计，今年1月至9月，中国大陆赴日游客数量位 居所有国家和地区之首，消费总额占赴日游客消费总额的约四分之一。日本野村综合研究所估算，当前 中国赴日游客大幅减少，将直接拉低日本国内生产总值（GDP）0.36%，造成约2.2万亿日元的经济损 失。 （文章来源：经济日报） 同时，旅游业关联性强，其波动对经济的影响范围广、链条长，给日本经济带来更大不确定性。目前， ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in consumer spending, with tourism-related prices showing strong performance. The national CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, reflecting a continued recovery in consumer spending [2][7]. - Hotel prices have shown resilience despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with the average hotel room price maintaining positive growth year-on-year. The RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) has only slightly declined, indicating a shift from a volume-driven recovery to a price-stabilized and optimized operational approach [2][8]. - The introduction of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in the service industry is expected to clarify the asset securitization path for various service sectors, including tourism and hospitality. This initiative aims to revitalize existing assets and improve financial structures [2][22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Structure Differentiation and Price Resilience - The hotel industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in occupancy rates, but average room prices remain stable, with an ADR (Average Daily Rate) of 388.8 CNY per night in early December, up 4.3% year-on-year [8][10]. - The RevPAR for the week ending December 6, 2025, was 233 CNY per night, showing only a 0.4% decline year-on-year, indicating a recovery phase focused on price stability and operational efficiency [8][10]. 2. REITs Supporting Asset Securitization in the Service Industry - The newly released REITs project industry scope includes cultural tourism infrastructure and commercial facilities, allowing for a clearer path to asset securitization for hotels and tourist attractions [22][23]. - The report emphasizes that the inclusion of high-quality service industry assets in the REITs framework will enhance cash flow stability and operational efficiency, ultimately benefiting the valuation and investment landscape of the sector [22][24]. 3. Valuation of Key Industry Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the tourism and hospitality sectors, including metrics such as market capitalization and PE ratios, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities [26]. - Notable companies highlighted for investment consideration include tourism sites like Sanxia Tourism and hotels like Shoulu Hotel and Huazhu [26].

对于后市，我们比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以政策表述从"超常规"到"跨周期"解读政策不积极，但 这存在谬误，2025年超常规是相较于2024年尾部风险暴露而言。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明 确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌 回稳"，并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政 策，继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考 虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年 初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资 金回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始。 考虑到前期股指的大幅调整、总量政策加码与增量入市环境，当下是布局春季行情的重要窗口。春节前 具备产业趋势的大盘成长有望占优，受益险资"开门红"配置的大盘价值也有望反弹。看好科技/券商保 险/消费。 中信建投：跨年有望迎来新一波行情 从9月初至12月初，AH两地市场经历了较长时间的调整，投资者情绪 ...

【 宏观】 稳中求进，修炼内功——2025年12月中央经济工作会议学习体会 中央经济工作会议 12 月 11-12 日在北京举行，会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对经济工作的定调，部署了 2026 年经济工作的八大重点任务。 总体来看，会议充分肯定了今年的经济工作，总结当前经济面临的机遇与挑战，下调对外风险评价，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内功"修炼。预计 2026 年宏观政策有望延续积极基调，但不搞大水漫灌强刺激，做好"逆周期"调节的同时，也会注重"跨周期"调节。 具体来看，会议新闻稿有以下六个亮点： 第一，政策基调偏温和，聚焦内部形势和中长期问题。 总体基调由 2024 年底经济工作会议的"稳中求进，以进促稳、守正创新"，转变为"坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"。表态上偏温和，预计 2026 年宏观政策有望延续 2025 年基调，整体积极，但也不会大水漫灌强刺激。 第二，明确财政和货币政策具体方向，表达出政策态度的连续性。财政政策方面， 一是，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，预计赤字率维持在 4% 左右。二是，提出"规范税收优惠和财政补贴政策"，是从制度层面 ...

核心 观点： 政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国 " 转型牛 " 将重振旗鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已 经开始，看好科技 / 券商保险 / 消费。 摘要 ▶ 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。 11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入 击球区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。 对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观： 部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬 误，2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内 需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政 策，继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。 考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快， 政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。 在交易层面，保收益降仓位 ...