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ETF策略系列:黄金ETF配置及基于对数收益率的择时策略
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-11-07 13:22
Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of gold assets, with significant price increases in both international and domestic markets, leading to a historic high in China's gold ETF scale [1][4][30] - China's gold reserves have been steadily increasing, reaching 2,068 tons by the end of September 2023, ranking fourth globally, which is crucial for financial security and optimizing foreign exchange reserves [1][9][10] - The domestic gold ETF market has rapidly developed due to rising investment demand, with a total of 63 ETFs and a market size exceeding 1,200 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 63.1% [1][34] - The report discusses the complex pricing factors of gold, emphasizing the inverse relationship between gold prices and the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, as well as gold's role as a safe-haven asset during market volatility [1][36] - A quantitative strategy for gold ETF timing is proposed, showing annualized returns of 12.3% since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -12.5% [1] Domestic Gold Asset Development Status - China's gold reserves have shown a steady growth trend, with the People's Bank of China continuously increasing its holdings, reflecting the importance of gold in stabilizing financial security and enhancing international payment capabilities [9][10] - In the first half of 2023, domestic gold production was 158.5 tons, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while gold imports increased by 12.3% [10][12] Global Gold Demand Trends - Global gold demand reached a record high in the third quarter of 2023, with total demand of 1,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%, driven primarily by investment demand [12][14] - The demand for gold jewelry has decreased in weight but increased in value due to rising prices, with global gold jewelry consumption dropping 6% to 400 tons in the third quarter of 2023 [13][24] Gold Pricing Factors - The report identifies U.S. Treasury real yields as a primary pricing factor for gold, with gold prices inversely related to these yields, influenced by U.S. economic data [36] - Gold's safe-haven attribute is highlighted, as demand increases during market turmoil, with supply and demand dynamics also playing a critical role in gold pricing [1][36] Gold Price Time Series Model - A time series prediction model for gold ETF logarithmic returns has been constructed, aiding investment decision-making [1] Huashan Gold ETF Timing Strategy - The Huashan Gold ETF timing strategy has provided specific operational guidance for investors, achieving an annualized return of 12.3% since 2020 [1]
债市阿尔法:国债期货入门指南:品种和概念介绍
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-07 12:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report is an introductory guide to treasury bond futures, providing a detailed introduction to the characteristics and related concepts of each treasury bond futures variety, and offering an analysis framework for investors to understand the relationship between the spot and futures markets, identify arbitrage opportunities, and manage interest rate risks [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Varieties - There are four treasury bond futures varieties listed on the China Financial Futures Exchange, with different contract specifications such as contract value, deliverable bonds, and margin requirements. The 2 - year treasury bond futures has a contract value of 2 million yuan, while the others have 1 million yuan. The shorter - term futures have lower minimum margin ratios and higher leverage [12]. - Each variety has four fixed contracts per year with delivery months in March, June, September, and December, but only the nearest three quarterly contracts are traded. The settlement price is the net price excluding accrued interest [12]. - In terms of trading volume and open interest, the 10 - year variety has the largest open interest, followed by the 5 - year and 30 - year varieties, and the 2 - year variety has the lowest. The 30 - year variety has a relatively high trading volume and a leading trading volume ratio [13][15]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Concepts - The basic concepts include the main contract, continuous contract, deliverable bonds, conversion factors, CTD (cheapest - to - deliver bond), treasury bond futures pricing, basis, net basis, and implied repo rate (IRR), which together reveal the arbitrage opportunities and the internal relationship between the spot and futures markets [20]. 3.3 Main Contract - The main contract is the one with the largest trading volume, open interest, and market influence in a certain variety, usually the current - quarter contract. As the current - quarter contract approaches the delivery month, its trading volume decreases, and the next - quarter contract takes over as the new main contract [21]. 3.4 Continuous Contract - The continuous contract is a virtual contract sequence created to connect the prices of individual treasury bond futures contracts with different maturity months, facilitating technical analysis, back - testing research, and long - term trend observation [22]. 3.5 Deliverable Bonds and Conversion Factors - To standardize and ensure the continuity of treasury bond futures, a virtual standard bond is used as the contract underlying, and the conversion factor is introduced to standardize different deliverable bonds. The invoice price in actual delivery is calculated based on the futures settlement price, conversion factor, and accrued interest [25]. 3.6 CTD (Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond) - The CTD is the bond with the lowest delivery cost among the deliverable bonds, which can be determined by calculating the delivery net cost. Its selection is affected by factors such as conversion factors, market interest rate fluctuations, and bond liquidity [33][35]. 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Pricing - Treasury bond futures are priced based on the "no - arbitrage principle." The theoretical price is equal to the net cost of holding the CTD spot until delivery, considering factors such as the spot net price, financing cost, and interest income. The pricing also takes into account the seller's option value [41]. 3.8 Basis - The basis represents the difference between the spot price and the futures price of treasury bonds, reflecting the "holding cost" or "return" of holding spot treasury bonds and hedging through short - selling futures contracts. It is affected by factors such as interest income, financing cost, and short - seller option value [42][43]. 3.9 Net Basis - The net basis is the basis after deducting the holding - period net return, directly reflecting the short - seller option value of a certain type of futures and helping to identify "cheap" futures varieties [44][45]. 3.10 Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - The IRR is the theoretical annualized return rate of the basis trading strategy of "buying spot bonds and selling futures." When the IRR is higher than the actual financing cost, there is a positive arbitrage opportunity; otherwise, there may be a reverse arbitrage space. The CTD bond usually has the highest IRR [48].
股债关联较强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7] - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating" [7] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures: The market sentiment rebounded, but it is currently considered a phased rebound. It is recommended to use a dumbbell - shaped portfolio. The reasons include the influence of the US dollar index and the policy and earnings data window period in November [1][7] - Stock index options: The market sentiment has stabilized with declining volatility. It is advisable to continue the covered - call strategy for now and switch to a bull - spread strategy after confirming the sustained improvement of sentiment [2][7] - Treasury bond futures: The performance is affected by the stock market. Although there is a lack of catalysts for further decline in bond yields, the fundamental environment may still be favorable for the bond market, and it is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [3][7][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the market sentiment rose, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 index rising over 3%. The A - share trading volume approached 2.1 trillion yuan, but the stock index showed a position - reducing trend. The current rebound is considered phased. It is recommended to hold IM + dividend index [1][7] Stock Index Options - The underlying market rose across the board yesterday, but the option market turnover decreased by 7.49% compared with the previous day. Volatility declined significantly. It is recommended to use the covered - call strategy for now [2][7] Treasury Bond Futures - Most treasury bond futures closed lower yesterday. The central bank's net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase had little impact on the capital market. The long - end bond yields were affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [3][7][9] 2. Economic Calendar - China's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI was 50.6, lower than the forecast of 50.9 and the previous value of 51.2. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the forecast of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. The US October ADP employment change was 4.2 million, higher than the forecast of 2.5 million and the previous value of - 3.2 million [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Medicine: The National Healthcare Security Administration plans to carry out a pilot project on full - process intelligent review of medical insurance handling to improve the national medical insurance handling and review capabilities [10] - Shipping: The US Secretary of Transportation confirmed that the capacity of 40 major US airports will be cut by 10% [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, including basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest changes, but specific data analysis is not provided in the summary [7][8]
股市盘?坚韧,债市仍有利好
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market showed resilience with a low - open and high - close trend, while the bond market still has positive factors. November is a period of oscillatory digestion for the stock market, and there may be opportunities for re - layout after December. The bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views (1) Stock Index Futures - The market opened low and closed high, showing resilience. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between current and next - month contracts also had changes. Total positions increased. Micro - cap + dividend styles were dominant. November is an oscillatory digestion period, and it is advisable to hold IM + dividend in the short term [7]. (2) Stock Index Options - During the rebound, there were style differences. The trading volume of the options market increased by 2.78% compared with the previous day, and the 50ETF skewness index reached around 120. It is recommended to view it as an oscillatory market and choose to sell call options for hedging defense [2][7]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - Long - term bond yields showed a V - shape. Most treasury bond futures contracts declined, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.08%, the 10 - year and 2 - year main contracts down 0.01%, and the 5 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank's operations had a short - term negative impact on the bond market, but the fundamental environment is still favorable, and the bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Different trading strategies are recommended [3][8][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - The October SPGI manufacturing PMI in China was 50.6, lower than the forecast of 50.9. The October ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 48.7, lower than the forecast of 49.5. The October ADP employment change in the US was 4.2 million, higher than the forecast of 2.5 million. Upcoming data include China's October trade balance in US dollars and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Starting from November 10, 2025, at 13:01, China will stop implementing the additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods and continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year, retaining the 10% rate. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [10][11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content.
股市缩量调整,债市曲线?平
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is in a state of volume - shrinking adjustment, with the view for November remaining volatile, waiting for the spring rally. The bond market curve continues to flatten, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. For stock index options, the decline persists, and a covered call strategy is recommended for defense [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the equity market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, with some indexes like Beizheng 50 and Kechuang 200 falling over 2%. The market volume dropped below 2 trillion. Only the dividend index rose, and banks and consumer services performed well. The decline is related to the weak Asia - Pacific market. The view for November is volatile, and it is advisable to hold IM + dividend index [1][7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued to decline yesterday, with small - and medium - cap stocks having a larger pullback. The option market's turnover increased by 2.24% to 93.16 billion yuan, and liquidity was basically flat. It is recommended to use a covered call strategy for defense [2][7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, most treasury bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year contract up 0.03%, the 10 - year flat, and the 5 - year and 2 - year down 0.01%. The yield of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, and the curve flattened. It is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and different strategies are recommended for different trading purposes [3][8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's October SPGI manufacturing PMI was 50.6 (previous value 51.2, forecast 50.9), and the US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (previous value 49.1, forecast 49.5). Other data such as the US October ADP employment change, China's October trade balance, and the US November Michigan consumer confidence index are yet to be released [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On November 4, Fed Governor Cook said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in December depending on new information. Recently, a draft for public comments on the performance comparison benchmark element library of public funds was issued. The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bonds in October was 20 billion yuan, with 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities and 400 billion yuan in repurchase agreements [11] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only mentions the headings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data summaries are provided [12][16][28]
“互换通”增加三家报价商
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-11-05 00:57
Core Insights - The "Swap Connect" has added three new market makers: Huatai Securities, Shanghai Bank, and DBS Bank (China) to enhance market activity and support the expansion of the program [1][2] - The program facilitates participation in the financial derivatives market for both domestic and foreign investors through a connection between mainland China and Hong Kong [1] Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced the expansion of "Swap Connect" market makers to optimize management mechanisms [1] - The Shanghai Clearing House is collaborating with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to support the new market makers in their operations [1] - "Swap Connect" provides a more convenient, efficient, and secure channel for investors to participate in the financial derivatives market [1] Group 2 - As of September 2025, "Swap Connect" has seen participation from 103 domestic and foreign investors across 15 countries and regions, with a total of 16,000 transactions and a nominal principal of 8.58 trillion yuan [2] - The expansion of market makers is expected to enrich the existing participant structure and enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets [2] - This initiative supports China's financial market's high-level opening to the outside world [2]
股指期权数据日报-20251104
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 07:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 3rd, the A - share market recovered after hitting a low, with all three major indexes closing in the green. The ChiNext Index dropped 2% during the session. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.29%. The North Securities 50 Index fell 0.98%, the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index fell 1.04%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.39%, the Wind 4500 Index rose 0.19%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.19%. The total trading volume of A - shares for the day was 2.13 trillion yuan, compared with 2.35 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Quotes - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 3016.3507, up 0.16%, with a trading volume of 1346.37 billion yuan and a trading volume of 54.90 billion [3]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4653.4028, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 5576.03 billion yuan and a trading volume of 239.87 billion [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7538.1178, up 0.42%, with a trading volume of 4324.23 billion yuan and a trading volume of 278.24 billion [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation | Index | Call Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 | 3.57 | 2.22 | 0.61 | 2.98 | 1.97 | 0.66 | | CSI 300 | 7.15 | 5.25 | 0.73 | 11.03 | 8.64 | 0.78 | | CSI 1000 | 24.31 | 12.92 | 0.88 | 14.44 | 15.01 | 1.04 | [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indexes, including historical volatility data for different periods such as 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day, as well as the current value and percentile values [3][4].
股市暂定震荡,债市或有提振
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 03:08
Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock market is tentatively in a volatile phase, while the bond market may receive a boost. Specifically, the stock index futures showed a V-shaped reversal, the stock index options were dominated by out-of-the-money call selling, and the bond market curve flattened [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The market showed a V-shaped reversal. The all-A index rose 0.39% with trading volume slightly exceeding 2.1 trillion. Coal, oil and gas, and building products led the gains. The dividend index and micro-cap index were dominant, and the dumbbell structure outperformed the market recently. November is a volatile period, and it is recommended to shift technology funds to the price increase chain and continue the dumbbell configuration. The operation suggestion is to hold IM + dividend index [3][9]. Stock Index Options - The market was dominated by out-of-the-money call selling. The underlying market opened lower in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. The option market turnover was 911.2 million yuan, a 11.72% decrease from the previous day. It is recommended to maintain the covered call strategy [4][9]. Bond Futures - The bond market curve flattened. Most bond futures closed down, with the long end performing better. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds had little impact on the overall loose liquidity. The decline in the October manufacturing PMI supported the long end of the bond market. It is expected that the bond market will be volatile and slightly stronger. Operation suggestions include trend strategy (volatile and slightly stronger), hedging strategy (focus on long substitution at high basis), basis strategy (focus on positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening), and curve strategy (focus on curve steepening) [5][10][11]. 2. Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic data release schedule for the week, including China's October SPGI manufacturing PMI (actual value 50.6, previous value 51.2), and upcoming data such as the US October ADP employment change and China's October trade balance [12]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement worth 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years [13]. - The Ministry of Finance's Debt Management Department has been listed in the "Ministry Organs" list, with clear responsibilities for government debt management [13]. - Regarding the US threat of imposing tariffs on China due to rare earth export controls, China stated that dialogue and cooperation are the correct ways to solve problems [14]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes sections on stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond futures data, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][19][31].
科技拥挤度释放,债市情绪偏多
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is to hold, for the stock index options is to hold a covered combination, and for the treasury bond futures is to expect a bullish trend with fluctuations [7][8][10] Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, external events have concluded, leading to the release of the crowded technology funds. It is advisable to hold long positions in dividend + IM and wait for the next style switch [6][7] - For stock index options, there is a certain short - term hedging need. It is recommended to hold a covered combination to increase returns [7] - For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment remains bullish. The bond market is expected to fluctuate upward, especially in the mid - to - late fourth quarter [3][8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell after moving sideways, losing the 4000 - point mark, with trading volume slightly increasing to 2.46 trillion yuan. The conclusion of important events and the far - lower - than - expected third - quarter profits of a leading optical module company triggered profit - taking in funds. It is recommended to hold long positions in dividend + IM [7] - The current - month basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at - 8.51 points, - 0.01 points, - 34.51 points, and - 46.68 points respectively, changing by - 4.07 points, - 2.59 points, 5.86 points, and 2.83 points compared to the previous trading day [6] - The inter - delivery spread (current month - next month) of IF, IH, IC, and IM was 11.4 points, 1.6 points, 52.2 points, and 74 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 0.6 points, 0.8 points, 1.6 points, and 0.8 points [6] - The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 12176 lots, 7069 lots, 7396 lots, and 20311 lots respectively [6] Stock Index Options - The underlying market fluctuated in the morning and declined across the board in the afternoon. The Shanghai 500ETF fell 1.28%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.11%. The trading volume of the options market was 1.1571 billion yuan, a 32.80% increase from the previous day [2][7] - The put - holding ratios of the 500ETF and ChiNext ETF, which were high the previous day, declined. The skewness of each variety showed an upward trend, and short - term hedging intensity may increase. It is recommended to hold a covered combination [2][7] Treasury Bond Futures - Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. As of the close, the T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed by 0.05%, 0.00%, - 0.01%, and 0.19% respectively. The central bank's net injection of 130.1 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations continued to keep the capital market loose [3][8] - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. The stock - bond seesaw effect supported the performance of long - term bonds in the afternoon. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading will be beneficial to the bond market in the short term [3][8][10] - The current - quarter trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL were 68993 lots, 54366 lots, 33991 lots, and 128226 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 22365 lots, - 44952 lots, - 22127 lots, and 2790 lots. The open interests were 245110 lots, 149269 lots, 73541 lots, and 144078 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 1169 lots, 160 lots, 2319 lots, and - 1963 lots [8] - The current - quarter to next - quarter spreads of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.320 yuan, 0.105 yuan, 0.062 yuan, and 0.270 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.010 yuan, - 0.025 yuan, - 0.024 yuan, and - 0.040 yuan [8] - The current - quarter spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, and T*3 - TL were 103.500 yuan, 99.043 yuan, 301.586 yuan, and 209.740 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.070 yuan, - 0.039 yuan, - 0.148 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan [8] - The current - quarter basis of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.116 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, - 0.066 yuan, and 0.229 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of 0.149 yuan, 0.054 yuan, 0.021 yuan, and 0.011 yuan [8] Economic Calendar - On October 27, 2025, China's year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits above designated size in September was 21.6%, higher than the previous value of 20.4% [11] - On October 27, 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the eurozone's seasonally adjusted money supply M3 in September was 2.8%, lower than the previous value of 2.9% [11] - On October 29, 2025, the month - on - month rate of the seasonally adjusted pending home sales index in the US in September was 0%, lower than the previous value of 4% [11] - On October 30, 2025, the upper limit of the US federal funds rate target in October was 4%, down from the previous value of 4.25% [11] Important Information and News Tracking - In Sino - US trade, the US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. Both sides will adjust relevant export control measures and extend some tariff exclusion measures [12] - In environmental protection, the Ministry of Commerce issued an implementation opinion on expanding green trade, aiming to promote the green and low - carbon development of logistics [13] - In the anti - involution of the steel industry, Henan Province issued an action plan for the quality improvement and upgrading of the steel industry, focusing on enterprise restructuring and integration [13]
股指期权数据日报-20251029
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 11:59
Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Options Data Daily Report [2] - Date: October 29, 2025 [3] - Author: Li Zeju, Financial Derivatives Center, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Data Sources: Wind and Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Review Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.22% to 3988.22 points, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.44%, ChiNext Index fell 0.15%, Northbound 50 Index decreased 1.2%, STAR 50 Index declined 0.84%, Wind All A Index dropped 0.34%, Wind A500 Index decreased 0.6%, and CSI A500 Index declined 0.54% [5][6] - A-share trading volume was 2.17 trillion yuan, compared to 2.36 trillion yuan the previous day [6] Index Volume and Price | Index | Volume (billion) | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 54.63 | 3050.4162 | -0.62 | 1487.20 | | CSI 300 | 220.91 | 4691.973 | -0.51 | 5715.63 | | CSI 1000 | 251.80 | 7479.221 | -0.22 | 4310.16 | [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Option Volume and Open Interest | Index | Call Option Volume (million contracts) | Put Option Volume (million contracts) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Open Interest PCR | Total Open Interest (million contracts) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2.26 | 3.34 | 0.69 | 3.80 | 2.61 | 0.48 | 6.41 | | CSI 300 | 11.39 | 6.51 | 0.75 | 8.60 | 7.43 | 0.86 | 16.02 | | CSI 1000 | 21.93 | 11.76 | 0.87 | 13.81 | 10.18 | 1.02 | 27.83 | [3] Volatility Analysis Historical Volatility and Volatility Smile Curve - The report presents historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including historical volatility at different time intervals (5-day, 20-day, 40-day, 60-day, 120-day) and implied volatility of at-the-money options for the next month [3][4]