Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - and medium - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. The overall market shows a mix of trends such as wide - range oscillations, short - term rebounds, and long - term weakness [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: After hitting a new high, it declined. The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations, and the trend strength is neutral [7][8]. - Silver: Undergoes oscillatory adjustment, with a neutral trend strength [2][7]. Base Metals - Copper: Fed rate cuts limit price drops. Peru's copper production increased in July, and some mines faced issues like worker entrapment and production halts. The trend strength is neutral [13][15]. - Zinc: In oscillatory consolidation, with a neutral trend strength [16]. - Lead: Decreasing inventory supports price oscillations, with a neutral trend strength [19]. - Tin: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a neutral trend strength [22][26]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern. Alumina rebounds from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. All have a neutral trend strength [27][28]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to news - related risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate due to the game between short - and long - term logics. Both have a neutral trend strength [29][35]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: With strong energy - storage demand, it runs in an oscillatory manner, with a neutral trend strength [36][38]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. Polysilicon's spot price rises slightly. Industrial silicon has a neutral trend strength, and polysilicon has a slightly positive trend strength [39][42]. - Iron Ore: Expectations fluctuate, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both oscillate in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [45][48]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Boosted by macro - sentiment, they oscillate strongly, with a positive trend strength [50][52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations fluctuate, and they oscillate in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [53][54]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [56][59]. - Paraxylene and PTA: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage [60]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is no obvious driving force for upward or downward movement, and it is mainly operated within a range. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, it undergoes a correction. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the capital side, it deviates from the fundamentals. - Corn: Runs in an oscillatory manner. - Sugar: Oscillates downward. - Cotton: The market focuses on the listing of new cotton. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is over, and inventory remains high. - Live Pigs: Policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of the spot market remains unchanged. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5][68][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report This report provides trend forecasts and analysis of fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It also presents macro and industry news and calculates the trend strength of each commodity. The overall view is that most commodities will show a trend of range - bound or volatile fluctuations, and some commodities will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relations, macro - economic policies, and international news [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to have a downward revision of non - farm employment, with a trend strength of 0, and prices may be affected by the Fed's interest rate decision [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Before the Fed's decision, prices will be cautious, with a trend strength of 0. The industry has major events such as mergers and production changes [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will have a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Lacks obvious driving forces, and prices will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will experience range - bound fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Will have a range - bound shock; Alumina will grind the bottom in a shock; Casting aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel will have a game between long - and short - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Will fluctuate, and the increase in supply restricts the upward space, with a trend strength of 0 [2][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices; Polysilicon requires attention to market information, with a trend strength of 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [2][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of - 1 [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment is back, and both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of 0 [2][55][56]. - **Log**: Will fluctuate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. Others - **LPG**: Will have a short - term narrow - range and relatively strong shock [2][50]. - **Propylene**: Will operate weakly at a high level in the short term [2][50]. - **PVC**: Will have a wide - range shock [2][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: Will rebound following crude oil and have a short - term adjustment trend; Low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market will rise slightly [2][54]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The contract in October will operate under pressure; Contracts in December and February will have a wide - range shock [2][55]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weak trend [2][58]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Will fluctuate at a low level [2][59]. - **Pure Benzene**: Will fluctuate in the short term and be weak in the fourth quarter [2][61]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, boosted by macro - factors; Soybean oil: US soybeans continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by optimistic trade sentiment, will fluctuate at a low level; Soybean: Will fluctuate [2][64]. - **Corn**: Will fluctuate [2][66]. - **Sugar**: Has a weak basis [2][67]. - **Cotton**: The market focuses on the situation of new cotton listing [2][68]. - **Egg**: The peak season for spot goods is coming to an end, and inventory is still high [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: The policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of spot goods is hard to change [2][71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 79,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there have been frequent disruptions on the copper supply side, with continuously low TC prices. The scrap copper industry is in a policy pain - period with unstable supply. Although current demand is not outstanding, it is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. The "Golden September and Silver October" expectation may affect market sentiment. With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting and a high probability of a September rate cut, the current copper price may maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern. One can conduct buy - hedging on dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On September 16, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 80,890 yuan/ton and closed at 80,880 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main SHFE copper contract opened at 81,010 yuan/ton and closed at 80,900 yuan/ton, up 0.02% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a premium of 10 - 140 yuan/ton to the current 2510 contract, with an average of 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The electrolytic copper price ranged from 80,880 to 81,360 yuan/ton. The SHFE 2510 contract dropped from 81,380 yuan/ton in the morning to around 80,700 yuan/ton before noon. The cross - month spread was close to par, and the import loss was about 500 yuan/ton. After the copper price fell below 81,000 yuan/ton, the downstream's willingness to fix prices increased slightly. In the Shanghai area, the procurement and sales sentiment indexes were 3.09 and 3.11 respectively. Some brands in the spot market were in short supply, with the mainstream transaction premium at 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the wet - process copper at a discount of about 40 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term copper price will remain in a high - level shock, and the spot premium may continue the stalemate [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Overseas macro: The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor by a narrow margin of 48 to 47 votes, and President Trump signed the appointment document. Milan can participate in this month's Fed interest - rate meeting and has the right to vote, which may lead to market doubts about the Fed's independence. The US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed governor Cook could continue to serve, rejecting the Trump administration's emergency application to dismiss her. The White House spokesman said the Trump administration would appeal the court's ruling [3]. - Tariffs: The US Department of Commerce announced that the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has established a process to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope authorized by President Trump under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. It will also consider the industry's request to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the next few weeks [3]. - Mine end: On September 16, according to the memorandum of understanding signed and announced in February 2025, Anglo American has reached an agreement through its Chilean subsidiary Anglo American Sur (AAS) and Codelco to formulate a joint mining plan for their adjacent Los Bronces and Andina copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, the joint mining plan will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, expected to start in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation and minimal incremental capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase (NPV) of at least $5 billion, with the benefits shared equally by both parties [4]. - Smelting and import: Chile, a major copper - producing country, expects that despite setbacks at two major copper mines, this year's copper production will still increase, providing some relief to the tight global market. Although there were problems at Codelco's No. 1 mine and a tailings issue at a Teck Resources company, BHP Group's large Escondida mine had a 11% year - on - year production increase in the first half of this year, the Collahuasi mine will get out of the low - grade ore situation, and the El Salvador mine after major maintenance has started to increase production. The mining minister, Aurora Williams, said that copper production is still expected to increase in the next two years and reach a record 6 million tons by 2027 [5]. - Consumption: According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on September 11, from January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. Compared with the first seven months, the production growth rate remained flat, and the sales growth rate increased by 0.6 percentage points. From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles totaled 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of the total new - vehicle sales [5]. 3.1.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,325 tons to 150,950 tons from the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,049 tons to 33,692 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 154,200 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. One can conduct buy - hedging on dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold. - Options: short put @ 79,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data | | | 2025 - 09 - 17 | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 10 | 2025 - 08 - 18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Spot (Premium/Discount)** | SMM: 1 copper | 75 | 80 | 90 | 180 | | | Premium copper | 125 | 110 | 125 | 210 | | | Flat - water copper | 50 | 50 | 40 | 150 | | | Wet - process copper | - 35 | - 70 | - 40 | 15 | | | Yangshan premium | 56 | 58 | 61 | 55 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 62 | - 73 | - 81 | - 94 | | **Inventory** | LME | 150,950 | 152,625 | 155,275 | 155,600 | | | SHFE | 94,054 | | 81,851 | | | | COMEX | 282,903 | 281,669 | 277,398 | 244,093 | | **Warehouse Receipts** | SHFE warehouse receipts | 33,692 | 30,643 | 19,081 | 24,560 | | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 11.25% | 13.46% | 14.25% | 7.41% | | | CU12 - CU10 (Continuous - third - near - month) | 0 | - 100 | - 60 | | | | CU11 - CU10 (Main - near - month) | 0 | - 60 | - 30 | - 110 | | **Arbitrage** | CU11/AL11 | 3.86 | 3.85 | 3.84 | 3.81 | | | CU11/ZN11 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.60 | 3.51 | | | Import profit | - 229 | - 139 | 5 | 145 | [30][31][32]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current copper price is at a high level in the past year, and the market is cautious due to the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. After the expected 25BP interest rate cut is implemented, copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Although the downstream's ability to absorb the current copper price is average, there is still restocking demand before the double festivals, which provides support for the demand side [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai copper price rose first and then fell. The main contract reached a maximum of 81,530. The spot copper price increased by 180 to 81,120, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 75. The loss of spot imports widened to 230. The LME0 - 3 contango remained around 62, and the premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading both decreased slightly [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine adjacent copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, it will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, starting in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation, and a minimum increase in capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion, shared equally by both parties [11]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney told Anglo American that if it wants to merge with Teck Resources, it needs to move its headquarters to Canada [11]. - Chile's state - owned mining agency ENAMI's $1.7 billion smelter modernization project has attracted 15 institutions to express investment intentions. The Hernan Videla - Lira smelter in the Atacama region is being renovated, which will enable it to process 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually. The deadline for initial bids is the end of October [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there have been frequent supply - side disturbances in the copper market, with low TC prices and an unstable supply situation in the scrap copper industry. Although the demand is not outstanding, it is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. The "Golden September and Silver October" expectation may affect market sentiment. With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting and a high probability of a September rate cut, copper prices may maintain a volatile and bullish pattern. It is advisable to conduct buy - hedging at dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 80,750 yuan/ton and closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 80,890 yuan/ton and closed at 81,380 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper narrowed slightly. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,780 - 81,100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) over the main contract. The last trading day saw light trading. It is expected that the spot premium may show a pattern of high quotes and low transactions [2]. Important Information Summary - Economic data: The US September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to - 8.7, far below the market expectation of 5. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates immediately [3]. - Tariffs: China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - Mine end: Due to a mudslide at the Grasberge copper mine in Indonesia, only the Block Cave has stopped operation, and the overall mining operation in the Grasberg area is currently at 30% of normal capacity [3]. Smelting and Import - LME copper inventories are fluctuating, with the latest at 153,950 tons, a one - month low. SHFE copper inventories increased by 14.91% to 94,054 tons, a two - and - a - half - month high. COMEX copper inventories reached a new high since mid - August 2003. As of September 9, the net long position of funds in COMEX copper futures rebounded to 27,241 lots [4]. Consumption - Last week, the operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 67.53%, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate rose slightly to 67.62%. This week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises may rise to 70.79%, while that of cable enterprises is expected to drop slightly to 67.5% [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 152,625 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,083 tons to 30,643 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 15.42 million tons, a change of 0.99 million tons from the previous week [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Group 2: Report Core Views - Various commodities in the futures market are expected to have different trends, including upward movement, downward movement, and oscillatory trends [2][4]. - Macroeconomic and industry news, such as economic data releases, policy announcements, and corporate events, will impact commodity prices [8][14][18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Prices may be affected by the downward revision of non - farm employment data, with a trend strength of 0 [2][8]. - Silver: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Multiple factors drive price increases, with a trend strength of 1 [2][14]. - Zinc: Maintains an oscillatory trend, with a trend strength of 0 [2][17]. - Lead: Decreasing inventory supports prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][20]. - Tin: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Alumina: Rebounds upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Nickel: The smelting end shows no significant contradictions; focus on news - related risks at the ore end, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price may oscillate due to the game between long - and short - term logics, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term demand may exceed expectations, with an oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - Industrial Silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment has reignited, and the market may continue to rise, with a trend strength of 2 [2][41]. - Iron Ore: Expectations are fluctuating, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][44]. - Rebar: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][48]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][49]. - Ferrosilicon: Boosted by macro - sentiment, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - Silicomanganese: Boosted by macro - sentiment, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - Coke: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][55]. - Coking Coal: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][56]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. - Rubber: Oscillate in a wide range, with no specific trend strength mentioned [2][62]. - Synthetic Rubber: In the short - term, macro - sentiment is positive, with an oscillatory trend [2]. - Asphalt: Production has increased, and inventory reduction has slowed down [2]. - LLDPE: Strong in the short - term, with an oscillatory trend in the medium - term [2]. - PP: Caution is needed when short - selling at low levels in the later stage, with an oscillatory market in the medium - term [2]. - Caustic Soda: Oscillates in a wide range [2]. - Pulp: Oscillates [2]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2]. - Methanol: Macro - sentiment is positive, with a short - term rebound [2]. - Urea: Macro - sentiment is strong, with a short - term rebound [2]. - Styrene: Strong in the short - term, bearish in the medium - term [2]. - Soda Ash: The spot market shows little change [2]. - LPG: Oscillates narrowly and strongly in the short - term [2]. - Propylene: Runs weakly at a high level in the short - term [2]. - PVC: Strong in the short - term [2]. Fuel and Shipping - Fuel Oil: Oscillates strongly with a short - term adjustment trend [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The rebound trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly increased [4]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The October contract runs under pressure, while the December and February contracts oscillate widely [4]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Supported by US soybean oil, it is advisable to go long at low levels [4]. - Soybean Oil: US soybean prices have risen; pay attention to the results of China - US negotiations [4]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the sentiment of economic and trade talks, it may rebound from an oversold position [4]. - Soybean: Rebounds and oscillates [4]. - Corn: Oscillates [4]. - Sugar: Pay attention to macro - policies [4]. - Cotton: The market focuses on the listing of new cotton [4]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is approaching, and inventory remains high [4]. - Live Pigs: The weakness of the spot market is difficult to change, and policies are relatively strong [6]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [6].

（文华综合） 印尼矿业部一位官员表示，由于自由港麦克莫兰运营的Grasberge铜矿发生泥石流事故，只有Block Cave 已经停止运营，其他较小的矿区仍在运营。截至上周五国内铜精矿现货加工费仍然低位徘徊，变动有 限，买卖双方分歧较大。 沪铜站稳80000关口后延续强势，今日偏强震荡，期价徘徊在81000一线附近，收盘上涨0.35%。铜市原 料端仍然偏紧，下游需求改善有限，社会库存继续增加，不过在降息预期提振下，市场氛围偏暖，沪铜 偏强震荡。 金瑞期货表示，近期印尼矿山出现生产扰动，预计小幅影响产量。冶炼环节进入9月国内冶炼检修增 加，结合再生冶炼原料同样转紧，维持冶炼产量重心下移预期。进出口方面，近期到港开始有所增加， 或因前期窗口打开。消费端，进入9月后下游订单边际改善幅度不大，或有铜价重心偏高影响。再生企 业反馈影响未持续发酵，开工边际有所回升。短期供需走弱，预计延续紧平衡状态。 9月15日国内市场电解铜现货库存15.79万吨，较11日增0.89万吨。上海市场近期进口虽仍有所到货但对 比前期表现减少，且国产货源到货依旧有限，但铜价高位运行，下游采购需求提升空间有限，库存小幅 下降；然江苏市场临近交割， ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-09-15 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 中国 8 月 M2-M1 剪刀差创四年新低 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 2025-09-15 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 备条件，因为利润太高了，可能会 POY 转产 FDY。聚酯开工高点已现，未来四季度需求预 计转弱。乙二醇供需平衡表近端仍偏强，远端供应压力显现，估值向下。 所 长 首 推 观点分享： 中国人民银行公布的数据显示，中国 8 月社融规模增量为 2.57 万亿元，人民币贷款增加 5900 亿元，同比少增 3,100 亿元 ，企业中长期贷款同比少增 200 亿元 ，但降幅较 上月收窄，显示企业融资需求边际改善。企业短期贷款同比多增 2,600 亿元 ，主要反映 企业经营周转需求增加；居民中长期贷款新增 200 亿元 ，同比少增 1,000 亿元 ；居 民短期贷款新增 105 亿元 ，同比少增 611 亿元 ，显示居民消费意愿仍偏弱。人民币 存款增加 2.06 万亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差较上月缩小了 0.4 个百分点，创四年新低，表明资金 活化程度有所提升。 所 长 首 推 | 板 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main reasons were that the overall CPI in the US in August was moderately controllable with limited month - on - month increase, and the employment market remained weak. The market actively bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. Trump's arrangement of his White House economic advisor as a director might further interfere with the Fed's policy independence, and the weakening of the US dollar index boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, major mines maintained supply disruptions, there were expectations of refined copper production cuts in China, emerging industries had rapid consumption growth, and there was a risk of further decline in social inventories. The B - structure of the near - month contract slightly narrowed [2]. - Weak employment data increased the Fed's pressure to cut interest rates this month, and the low - inflation environment provided a favorable basis for a full - scale shift to a loose policy path. Trump's appointment of new directors might speed up his intervention in the future federal funds rate. In addition, the month - on - month decline of CPI in August but the narrowing of PPI decline, and the stable export growth. Driven by the expectation of growth - stabilizing policies, the sentiment in the domestic capital market was high. Fundamentally, the interference rate at overseas mine ends continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline. With the arrival of the consumption peak season in September and October, the tight - balance structure in China would intensify, and it was expected that copper prices would enter a stage of fluctuating upward in the short term [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Price changes: From September 5th to September 12th, LME copper rose from $9,865.00/ton to $10,064.50/ton, a 2.02% increase; COMEX copper rose from $454.35 cents/pound to $464.8 cents/pound, a 2.30% increase; SHFE copper rose from 80,140 yuan/ton to 81,060 yuan/ton, a 1.15% increase; international copper rose from 71,130 yuan/ton to 72,030 yuan/ton, a 1.27% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.12 to 8.05. The LME spot premium dropped from -$68.04/ton to -$73.42/ton, a 7.91% decline, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 165 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory changes: As of September 12th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 635,473 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,000 tons (-2.53%), COMEX inventory increased by 5,142 short tons (1.68%), SHFE inventory increased by 12,203 tons (14.91%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 3,200 tons (-3.99%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper price trend: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The reasons were related to the US economic data and policy expectations, as well as the fundamentals of supply and demand. The total global inventory continued to rise, and the US dollar index's limited rebound led to the Shanghai - London ratio remaining at a relatively low level [8]. - Macroeconomic situation: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, a month - on - month increase of 27,000, far exceeding the expected median of 235,000. The actual number of new non - farm jobs in the past 12 months ending in March was 911,000 less than previously reported. The 8 - month CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% increase. The market continued to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged, and the euro - zone inflation was under control. In China, the CPI in August was -0.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy was +0.9% year - on - year. The PPI decline narrowed [9]. - Supply and demand situation: Globally, the mine - end supply remained tight and was transmitted to the smelting end. In China, refined copper production in September might continue to decline. The supply of scrap copper tightened, and the profitability of small and medium - sized smelters was limited. On the demand side, power grid investment projects would speed up, the copper cable industry's operating rate was expected to return to about 80%. The demand for new energy vehicles would enter the peak season, and social inventories might decline further. The tight - balance structure would intensify [10]. 3. Industry News - Import data: In August, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 275.93 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative imports from January to August reached 2,007.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products in August were 42.5 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 353.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. In July, the copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year, while the production of Collahuasi decreased by 27.2% year - on - year [12]. - Panama copper mine: The Panamanian government plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals about the possible restart of the Panama copper mine at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit will be carried out first, which is expected to take 3 - 4 months. Before the shutdown, the mine's annual copper production was 35 tons, and its contribution to Panama's GDP was about 5%. The shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $1.7 billion [13]. - Freeport - McMoRan: An accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to 7 workers being trapped underground, and the mine's operation was suspended. The company's stock price fell by 5.81% on Tuesday. The Grasberg mining area has an annual copper production capacity of about 771,100 tons and a gold production capacity of 1.4 million ounces [14][15]. 4. Related Charts - Multiple charts showed the trends of copper prices (including SHFE copper, LME copper, COMEX copper), inventories (LME, COMEX, SHFE, Shanghai bonded area), spreads (LME spot premium, Shanghai spot premium, etc.), ratios (Shanghai - London ratio), and other indicators, as well as the net long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net position change of LME copper investment funds [17][21][40].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fed's September rate - cut expectation has risen, and the traditional consumption peak season has led to an initial improvement in new orders for enameled copper wire, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, down 9,691 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, up 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, up 902 tons; the Shanghai copper basis was 45, up 90 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9719, up slightly [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.671, up 0.1; the total inventory was 309,834, up 2,138 [2] 2. Important Information - As of September 11, the weekly inventory of copper in mainstream regions in China decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons. Due to delivery demand, the in - transit inventory reached a record high. SMM expects that with continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, copper inventory will increase slightly [2] - In 2025, the investment of the State Grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. Stable orders from the State Grid will provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry, offsetting the weak demand from downstream industries such as construction [2] 3. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Freeport's Indonesian mine had an accident and suspended mining, and there were disruptions in copper mine production at home and abroad. The China copper concentrate import index was negative but higher than last week, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates, and a decline in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increased month - on - month [2] - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wire showed an initial month - on - month improvement, but high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased slightly compared with last week, but delivery demand increased the in - transit inventory; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased [2] 4. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2]