Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of President Trump's tariff policies on various countries, highlighting the differing responses from nations that have historically been close to the U.S. and those that have not. Group 1: Countries Yielding to U.S. Tariffs - Vietnam and Cambodia are among the first countries to yield to U.S. tariffs, with Vietnam reducing its tariffs to zero in exchange for a 20% tariff from the U.S. [3] - As of now, four out of eleven Southeast Asian countries have submitted to U.S. demands, which has pleased Trump [3]. Group 2: Countries Resisting U.S. Tariffs - Japan and South Korea are resisting U.S. tariffs, with Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary stating that Japan is prepared for all possible scenarios [3]. - India has shown a rare calmness and determination, with its Minister of Commerce stating that India will not rush into negotiations that do not align with its interests [3]. - India plans to strengthen trade cooperation with Australia, Europe, the UK, and the UAE to counter Trump's tariff policies [3]. Group 3: U.S. Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective August 1, which has led to a decline in European copper stocks and a rise in U.S. copper prices [6]. - The U.S. Commerce Secretary justified the copper tariffs by emphasizing copper's importance in various industries, including construction and military [6]. Group 4: Responses from Major Copper Exporting Countries - Canada has chosen to compromise by abandoning plans to increase tariffs on U.S. metal imports and will re-engage in trade negotiations with the U.S. [8]. - In contrast, Chile has firmly opposed U.S. tariffs, with its President asserting the need to defend its copper industry [8]. - Brazil has also taken a strong stance against U.S. tariffs, with its President emphasizing Brazil's trade surplus and questioning the rationale behind the tariffs [10]. Group 5: Implications of U.S. Tariff Strategy - The U.S. relies on imports for 45% of its copper needs, and Trump's tariffs aim to manipulate global copper prices to pressure China out of the South American market [12]. - However, the article suggests that the tariffs may exacerbate supply shortages in the U.S. rather than control copper prices, as domestic production cannot meet demand [12]. - The article concludes that Trump's tariff strategy is short-sighted and that many countries have begun to see through his tactics [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, copper prices showed a pattern of strength in the overseas market and weakness in the domestic market. Trump's announcement of a 50% high - tariff on imported copper from August 1st caused a sharp rise in US copper prices. A large amount of cross - market arbitrage funds entered the market, suppressing the prices of LME copper and SHFE copper. Some Fed officials believe that there will most likely be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, boosting market risk appetite. US copper is strong, but the risk of inventory surplus after the tariff implementation poses a pressure on further upward movement. LME copper will maintain a relatively strong oscillation, while SHFE copper will be weak in the short term under the dual pressure of reduced imported supplies and cross - market arbitrage [3][9]. - Overall, Trump's two rounds of tariff collection actions have triggered market concerns about the deterioration of trade relations. The upcoming high - tariff on US copper has led to the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic copper prices. The Fed's meeting minutes show a large divergence between hawks and doves, and maintaining the status quo in July is still the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the resumption of overseas interrupted mines is slim, the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern, deliverable supplies are flowing into North America, and domestic social inventory is fluctuating at a low level. It is expected that the overseas copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and SHFE copper will face pressure to回调 and confirm the lower support [4][12][13]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From July 4th to July 11th, LME copper decreased from $9852.00/ton to $9663.00/ton, a decrease of $189.00 or - 1.92%; COMEX copper increased from 506.25 cents/pound to 558.4 cents/pound, an increase of 52.15 cents or 10.30%; SHFE copper decreased from 79730.00 yuan/ton to 78430.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1300.00 yuan or - 1.63%; international copper decreased from 70990.00 yuan/ton to 69600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1390.00 yuan or - 1.96%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.09 to 8.12. The LME spot premium decreased from $95.35/ton to - $21.57/ton, a decrease of $116.92 or - 122.62%. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 115 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [5]. - As of July 11th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas increased to 491,373 tons, a 5.60% increase. Among them, LME copper inventory increased by 13,450 tons, LME0 - 3 shifted back to the B structure, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 37.6%; SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons; bonded area inventory increased by 2,500 tons, and the Yangshan copper bill of lading rose to $60. The COMEX premium over LME reached up to 28%, causing deliverable supplies to rush to North America [8][9]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices showed an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern last week. The high - tariff on US copper led to a sharp rise in COMEX copper, and cross - market arbitrage funds suppressed LME and SHFE copper. The Fed's possible interest rate cuts boosted market sentiment. US copper is restricted by inventory risks, LME copper will oscillate strongly, and SHFE copper will be weak in the short term. Overseas mines' resumption is difficult, and the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern [3][9]. - In terms of inventory, the global inventory continued to rebound. LME copper inventory increased, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and bonded area inventory increased. The COMEX - LME premium led to the transfer of supplies to North America, and some imported copper will flow back to China in the future. The Shanghai - London ratio rose slightly to 8.12 [9][10]. - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs to August 1st and threatened to impose high - tariffs on copper. COMEX copper soared and then fell. US consumer inflation expectations have eased. Fed officials are divided on the impact of tariffs on inflation, and most believe there will be at least two interest rate cuts this year, but there are also officials who think the interest rate will remain unchanged. In China, June's CPI and core CPI increased, while PPI decreased, but some factors will drive price recovery [11]. - In terms of supply and demand, overseas mines' interruptions continue, and the domestic spot TC remains at - $45/ton. Under the negative processing fee, large and medium - sized smelters maintain production with by - product profits, while some small and medium - sized smelters face the risk of production reduction. On the demand side, power grid investment projects have started, the copper cable enterprise's operating rate in June decreased slightly, the orders of refined copper rod enterprises declined, the new energy vehicle production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the traditional industry supports the demand base [12]. Industry News - In May, Codelco's copper production was 130,100 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase; Escondida's production was 132,000 tons, a 24.4% year - on - year increase; Collahuasi's production was 38,400 tons, a 16.9% year - on - year decrease. In June, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.135 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production in the first half of the year was 6.6 million tons, a 11.4% cumulative year - on - year increase [14]. - Hudbay Minerals temporarily suspended the operation of Snow Lake due to wildfires in northern Canada, but expects to resume operations efficiently once the wildfire situation improves and still aims to achieve its annual guidance in Manitoba in 2025 [14]. - Capstone Copper obtained environmental approval for its $150 - million Mantoverde Optimized project in Chile, which will extend the mine's service life from 19 to 25 years and increase the annual copper - equivalent production from 97,000 - 112,000 tons to 125,000 - 135,000 tons [15]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 250 - 550 yuan/ton last week, with the highest price decreasing by 50 yuan/ton. The decline in domestic copper premiums and the operating rate of cable enterprises led to a decrease in the order scale of refined copper rod enterprises. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will continue to decline slowly in mid - to - late July [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that although there are disruptions in the production or transportation of multiple copper mines overseas, due to the Trump administration's imposition of high - tariff policies on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional consumption off - season in the domestic market, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,430, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, a decrease of 17,565 lots; the open interest was 178,682 lots, a decrease of 2,386 lots; the inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 23,307 tons, an increase of 1,578 tons [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 11, 2025 was 9,663, a decrease of 19 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 108,725 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on July 11, 2025 was 5.584, an increase of 0.04 compared to the previous day; the total inventory increased by 10,797 tons [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Macro**: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion and $560 billion by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the scale of weekly Treasury bond auctions. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not led to a significant rebound in consumer - end inflation. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with the expected time for rate cuts being September or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Wildfires in northern Manitoba, Canada, have caused Hudbay Minerals to suspend operations at its Snow Lake mine. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates has increased compared to last week. The export volume of Australian copper concentrates has decreased. The supply of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the domestic scrap copper production or import volume in July is expected to decrease, with a tight supply - demand outlook. Some copper smelters have suspended production, while others are under construction or have new production capacity coming online. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas and the total inventory of electrolytic copper in China have increased compared to last week, as has the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper [2]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods used in East China's power and cable industries has decreased compared to last week. Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The operating rates of some copper - related industries have changed, with the operating rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, and copper plate and strip increasing, while those of steel pipes and brass rods decreasing. The domestic steel enterprises' production capacity, production volume, and import volume in July are expected to decline [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support levels of 76,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,600 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.58 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,900 - 10,200 for London copper, and 6.0 - 7.0 for US copper [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market for copper is weakening, putting pressure on prices [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,430 with a daily decline of 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78,320 with a decline of 0.14%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,663 with a decline of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 17,565 to 81,666, and the position decreased by 2,386 to 178,682. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 1,000 to 19,905, and the position decreased by 1,214 to 281,000. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 1,578 to 23,307, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 625 to 108,725. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 37.69% with a decline of 0.19% [1] - **Spot Data**: The LME copper premium/discount was - 21.57, a change of - 20.62 from the previous day. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 25, a change of - 40 from the previous day. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was 140, a change of - 110 from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Trump issued trade letters this week, imposing a new round of tariffs on many countries, with the scope of the 50% copper tariff possibly expanding to semi - finished products, which may impact the construction of the US power grid and data centers [1] - **Micro**: The Indonesian Interior Minister asked to relax the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International. The new LME warehouse in Hong Kong attracted 100 tons of copper stored in "non - warrant" form before its official opening in mid - July. Ivanhoe's Kamoa - Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had a 11% year - on - year increase in copper production in the second quarter, reaching 112,009 tons. Copper traders are shipping copper to Hawaii for tariff - related trade. First Quantum Minerals' investment in Prospect Resources is key to extending the life of the Sentinel mine in Zambia [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, with the value range being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures contracts have surged past 76,000 yuan, indicating a frantic demand from traders for physical copper, with reports of copper being transferred multiple times before reaching its destination [1] - The global copper supply chain is under severe pressure, with smelters in China warning of raw material shortages and the need to cut production by 20% [1] - The quality of copper concentrate from South America is declining, leading to disputes over payments and further complicating the supply situation [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - Social conflicts and supply chain interruptions are evident, as seen in Peru where increased security and community blockades have hindered the transport of copper concentrate [3] - The Chinese copper industry is facing rising raw material costs, with some manufacturers unable to fulfill orders due to skyrocketing copper prices [3] - The recycling sector is seen as a potential solution to the copper shortage, but there is a significant gap in recovery capabilities, with only a fraction of waste copper being processed [4][6] Group 3: Global Mining Challenges - Mining operations in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo are facing logistical challenges due to weather and social unrest, further tightening global copper supply [6] - The average copper grade in Chinese mines is significantly lower than in South America, leading to higher production costs and reduced competitiveness [8] - Climate change is exacerbating mining difficulties, with water shortages impacting production rates in Chilean mines [8] Group 4: Future Demand and Supply Gap - The International Energy Agency warns of a looming copper supply gap, projecting a demand of 50 million tons by 2035 against a potential supply of only 35 million tons [9] - The transition to renewable energy sources is driving unprecedented demand for copper, with electric vehicles and renewable energy installations consuming significantly more copper than traditional vehicles [9][10] - The rising costs of copper are affecting consumer products, leading to price increases in everyday items such as air conditioners and electric vehicles [10]

智通财经7月12日电，智利国家铜业公司总裁称上半年铜产量增长9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the proposed 50% tariff on copper and related products by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impact on the U.S. copper market and global supply dynamics [1][5][9]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 8, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and related products, which is expected to include copper wire, scrap copper, and copper-containing products, but exclude copper concentrate and end products like appliances and electronics [1][5]. - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures experienced a three-day rally, reaching a historical high of $5.89 per pound, while LME copper prices fluctuated, dropping to $9,553 per ton before rebounding [3]. Group 2: U.S. Copper Production and Consumption - The U.S. produces approximately 800,000 to 850,000 tons of refined copper annually but consumes around 1.6 million tons, leading to a significant import dependency [5][6]. - The White House aims to increase domestic copper production by 70% by 2035 and reduce import reliance from 45% to 30% [9]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Alternatives - Various industries are affected by the tariff, with the textile industry having 17% of its exports to the U.S., while the consumer electronics sector faces a 27.5% exposure [11]. - The article suggests that while tariffs may incentivize domestic production, the high costs and long timelines associated with mining new copper sources pose significant challenges [12][14]. Group 4: Global Copper Supply Dynamics - The article notes that the U.S. copper mining sector is facing increasing operational costs and legal challenges, making it difficult to ramp up production quickly [12][14]. - China has become the largest copper refining nation, with production expected to reach 12 million tons by 2024, and it controls nearly half of the global copper refining capacity [29][31]. Group 5: Price Dynamics and Market Expectations - The article indicates that copper prices are expected to stabilize around $12,000 to $13,000 per ton, which is necessary for mining operations to be economically viable [13][37]. - The tariff is seen as a variable that may influence short-term pricing but is unlikely to change the fundamental pricing logic based on global supply and demand dynamics [37]. Group 6: Geopolitical Considerations - The article highlights that geopolitical tensions are driving China to increase its overseas mining acquisitions, reflecting a strategic move to secure essential raw materials amid rising global competition [33][35]. - The U.S. tariffs are viewed as a tool to address supply imbalances, but the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain given the complexities of the mining and refining industries [39].

Group 1 - The potential imposition of a 50% tariff on refined copper by the Trump administration could significantly increase costs for U.S. copper buyers, impacting the manufacturing sector that relies heavily on imported copper [1][2] - Chile accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports, and the Chilean government is actively seeking exemptions from the proposed tariffs, emphasizing the importance of Chilean copper production to U.S. manufacturing [1][2] - Analysts suggest that while the tariffs may increase domestic smelting and boost mining profits, they are unlikely to lead to substantial mining investments in the U.S. due to the long lead time required for new mining projects [1][2] Group 2 - The Canadian government has condemned the proposed tariffs, labeling them as "illegal" and a direct attack on Canadian workers, as Canada is the second-largest supplier of copper to the U.S. [2] - The copper market is expected to remain volatile, with U.S. consumers likely to draw on existing inventories in response to the tariffs, which could affect demand for copper over the next nine months [2] - The U.S. produced 850,000 tons of refined copper from ore last year, with an additional 810,000 tons relying on imports, highlighting the country's significant dependence on foreign copper sources [2][3]

Macro News - The main gold futures price in Shanghai reported at 774.36 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.41%. The opening price was 774.6 CNY per gram, with a high of 775.46 CNY and a low of 770.46 CNY [1] - Recent developments indicate that tariff negotiations between the US and Europe are accelerating, with the automotive sector being a key focus for the EU. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro may request Trump to lift tariffs on Brazil, while current President Lula has stated that if negotiations with the US fail, reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. Chile is seeking exemption from US copper tariffs, and Vietnam has not agreed to Trump's proposed tariff increase from 11% to 20% [1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a consideration for interest rate cuts in the fall, with expectations of two cuts this year. There is no evidence of sustained tariff impacts on prices. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.4% [1] Institutional Views - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market risk aversion has slightly returned, allowing gold to demonstrate resilience. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, providing support for precious metals. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation and economic slowdown, with the "Big and Beautiful" act likely exacerbating US debt and deficit issues. Therefore, support for precious metals is expected to remain resilient, continuing a high-level oscillation trend [1]

据央视新闻7月11日消息，在美国宣布将自8月1日起对巴西商品征收50%关税后，当地时间7月10日，巴 西总统卢拉接受采访时表示，巴西将与美国进行关税谈判，若无效将采取对等反制措施。 当地时间9日，巴西政府称，已告知美国大使馆，将退回美国总统特朗普当天发送的信函，并决定召见 美国驻巴西临时代办埃斯科瓦尔，要求其对信函中关于前总统博索纳罗的部分作出解释。 美国总统特朗普9日对外发布致巴西总统卢拉的信函，除了威胁将对进口自巴西的产品征收50%的关税 外，他还在信函中宣称，"卢拉正在对巴西前总统博索纳罗展开政治迫害，应立即停止"。对此，巴西总 统卢拉9日表示，巴西不会接受被任何人控制，对于美国单方面宣布提高巴西出口产品的关税，巴西将 予以回应。 巴西前总统博索纳罗目前正在接受巴西最高法院的调查。博索纳罗在2022年10月的总统选举中落败。 2023年1月8日，部分博索纳罗支持者冲击巴西国会、总统府和联邦最高法院，造成严重破坏。巴西检察 机构指控博索纳罗与多名高级幕僚共同策划政变，试图推动军事干预以推翻选举结果。 图片来源：央视新闻 卢拉表示，巴西将优先尝试进行关税谈判，并就美方单边加征关税措施在世界贸易组织提起诉讼。 ...