交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 2、基差：现货22970，基差+420；偏多。 4月29日期货交易所锌期货行情 3、库存：4月29日LME锌库存较上日减少1775吨至177550吨，4月29日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少427吨至2429吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向下；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空增；偏空。 6、预期：LME库存仓单迅速下降；上期所仓单继续下降；沪锌ZN2506：震 荡盘整。 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66 ...

前十大流通股东累计持有： 11005.79万股，累计占流通股比： 34.04%，较上期变化： 45.26万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比例 | 增减情况(万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | 股) | | 罗平县锌电公司 | 8859.76 | 27.40 | 不变 | | 华融晋商资产管理股份有限公司 | 515.54 | 1.59 | 不变 | | 保宁资本有限公司-保宁新兴市场中小企基金(美国) | 347.57 | 1.07 | -10.12 | | 徐开东 | 282.10 | 0.87 | 100.87 | | 李川城 | 261.10 | 0.81 | 新进 | | 徐小蓉 | 222.08 | 0.69 | 47.36 | | 李子东 | 170.00 | 0.53 | 新进 | | 何贤贤 | 122.16 | 0.38 | 新进 | | 周伟林 | 113.48 | 0.35 | 新进 | | 牛江涛 | 112.00 | 0.35 | 新进 | | 较上个报告期退出前十大股东有 | | | | | 赵岳军 | 200.0 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation, which may lead to more cautious monetary policies and increased market volatility [13]. - The US economic slowdown and the impact of export restrictions on corporate earnings may cause the stock market to remain weak [21]. - In the bond market, the overall situation is bullish before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven, but the upward trend may be volatile [24]. - In the commodity market, most commodities are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing weak or volatile trends [25][33][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023. Powell said that tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation [12][13]. - Gold prices reached a new high, and the stock market declined significantly. The tariff issue is the main trading logic in the market, and risk - aversion sentiment drives funds into gold [13]. - Short - term market sentiment is over - bullish, and risks need to be noted [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - As of February, 14 US states had more unemployed people than job vacancies, the highest in 14 years. The US may relax the repayment requirements for Ukraine's aid [14][15]. - Powell is worried that the Fed may be caught between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The market risk appetite has weakened, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell reiterated that the Fed will wait and see before taking action. The H20 chip of NVIDIA faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to export restrictions [19][20]. - The market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the stock index is expected to remain weak [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 104.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.44 billion yuan on the day [23][24]. - Although economic indicators in Q1 showed signs of stabilization, there are still challenges in the future. The bond market is in a bullish trend before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven [24]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in Q1 2025 was 67.844 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased by 7.05% month - on - month. The short - term trend of the oil market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment from January to March increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to factors such as tariffs and weak demand [29][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to decline, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The terminal demand is not optimistic [35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price of old - crop corn may be driven up after the May 05 contract delivery [37]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Overseas alumina market transactions are active, and prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Santa Cruz copper project has obtained financing intentions, and establishing a joint venture may be a way to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine [40][41]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Junda Co., Ltd.'s Q1 revenue decreased by 49.52% year - on - year, with a net loss. The polysilicon price may be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the PS2507 contract [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project in Shaanxi is under environmental assessment. The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiuwu Hi - tech and Zhongke Chun cui signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Lithium prices may stabilize in the short term, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the medium - term [47][48]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead alloy smelting enterprises have reduced production by 30%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions [50]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zhuzhou Smelter Group's zinc production in 2024 was 642,500 tons, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots in 2025 [51][52]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [53]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has adjusted the nickel ore royalty. Nickel prices may be supported, and it is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low prices [54][56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and reduce risk exposure [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased slightly. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The long - term impact of tariffs on the textile and clothing industry is negative [61][62]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply has increased, and the demand is fair. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. It is recommended to wait and see due to the macro - impact [64][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is slightly weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and domestic stimulus policies [67]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene enterprise inventories decreased. The potential impact on demand may not be fully priced in, and the valuation has room to decline [68][70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories increased. The market is affected by supply and demand, and the 05 contract may be under pressure [71][72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. With the increase in supply and the possible decline in photovoltaic glass production, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [73]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The near - month contract may be under pressure, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].