1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The industry's focus was on the short squeeze of LME zinc and domestic zinc smelting production cuts. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc ingots reached a new low in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. With the decrease in imported zinc ore and the increase in domestic zinc smelting winter stockpiling demand, the zinc ore TC declined, and the zinc smelting profit decreased, leading to a slowdown in zinc ingot supply growth. The downstream demand remained generally stable, and the total domestic zinc ingot inventory gradually increased. The major short positions in the previous main contract of SHFE zinc significantly reduced, and some turned into net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc slightly increased, alleviating the overseas structural risk. Considering the recent macro - events and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space for zinc prices is limited during the surplus cycle [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts hit a new low of 22,900 tons in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. As of November 6, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.10% to 22,691 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 225,700 lots. The LME zinc 3S fell 16 to $3,054.5/ton, with a total position of 228,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 158,700 tons, and the SHFE zinc futures inventory was 68,000 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 55 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 4,300 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $98.23/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $53.2/ton. The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,211.76 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 103 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 248,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 616,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.54%, 52.50%, and 58.19% respectively [11]. - **Outlook**: The domestic zinc ore inventory continued to decline, the zinc concentrate processing fee dropped again, and the domestic zinc smelting profit decreased, resulting in a decline in monthly zinc ingot production. With downstream demand remaining stable, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory slowly increased. SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and manufacturing new and unfinished orders in the US, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to September, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The net import of zinc ore in September was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.6%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,000,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.0%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in September was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 4,540,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot production was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The net import of zinc ingot in September was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ingot was 267,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 21.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in September was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,336,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. The raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and the finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 3.9%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 5,193,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 161,500 tons. The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 5 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 6,100 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $96.02/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.49/ton [63]. - **Cross - market Structure**: The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.04, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,272.74 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc turned net long, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term bullish sentiment from the position perspective [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply - side contraction due to shrinking profits of domestic zinc smelters and tight ore supply is favorable for zinc prices. The continuous opening of the domestic export window is expected to relieve the high domestic inventory pressure, and zinc may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, after the end of the downstream peak season, the weakening consumption of refined zinc may limit the increase in zinc prices. [1][47][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - In October, zinc prices at home and abroad ended the previous downward trend, rebounded after volatile consolidation. In the first and middle of the month, the domestic zinc supply - demand situation weakened, and inventory continued to accumulate. After the holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then trended lower. In the late month, the domestic export window opened, the oversupply of domestic inventory was relieved, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts strengthened, leading to a continuous rise in SHFE zinc. - In November, zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, further compressing the profits of zinc smelting enterprises. Some high - cost enterprises reduced production, intensifying the expectation of supply - side contraction. With domestic supply contraction and the opening of the export window, the domestic inventory pressure is expected to be relieved, but the weakening demand and high domestic inventory may limit the increase in zinc prices. [7] 3.2. Analysis of Zinc Influencing Factors 3.2.1. High - speed Increase in Global Zinc Ore Supply - With the resumption of production of global zinc mines and the ramping - up of new projects, global zinc ore supply increased at a high - speed year - on - year. In August, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In 2025, the main driving force for the increase in global mine production came from the resumption and increase of production of overseas mine projects and new production capacity in Xinjiang, China. - In September, domestic zinc concentrate production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, the production of some mines in Anhui and Guizhou was planned to resume, but as domestic mines gradually entered the seasonal supply off - season, the zinc concentrate production continued to decline. Overall, overseas mines are recovering rapidly, with a long - term expectation of global mine oversupply, but currently, domestic ore supply is gradually decreasing. [13][14] 3.2.2. High - level Domestic Zinc Ore Imports - In September 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative import of zinc concentrate from January to September was 4.008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. The top three import source countries in September were Australia, Peru, and Oman. - In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased slightly month - on - month, maintaining a high level in recent years. Although the import window for zinc ore was closed in September, the arrival of locked - price and long - term contract zinc ores and strong demand for winter storage led to a continuous import volume. In October, the import window remained closed. Considering the strong demand for winter storage by domestic smelters but unfavorable import ratios, the import volume of zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. - Due to factors such as increased demand for winter storage by domestic smelters, seasonal production cuts of domestic mines, and expanded losses of imported ores, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have been adjusted downward. [15][16][17] 3.2.3. Gradual Expansion of Global Zinc Supply - demand Surplus - In August 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, and the demand was 1.179 million tons, with a monthly supply - demand surplus of 47,900 tons. From January to August, the cumulative production of refined zinc was 9.1482 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.14%, and the cumulative demand was 8.9683 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.19%. The cumulative global refined zinc supply - demand surplus from January to August was 179,900 tons. [19][22] 3.2.4. Expected Contraction of Domestic Zinc Supply - In October 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 617,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. The cumulative production from January to October increased by 10% year - on - year, lower than expected. In November, with the rapid decline of domestic and imported processing fees, the comprehensive smelting profits of smelters were severely compressed, and some high - cost areas faced the risk of losses. Some smelters in the northwest and central China may actively reduce production in November. - In September 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In October, zinc ingot import losses reached a record high since 2022, severely suppressing imports, while the export window remained open, relieving domestic inventory pressure. [27][28][29] 3.2.5. Downstream Demand Enters the Off - season - In the galvanizing industry, after the holiday, the galvanizing start - up rate rebounded month - on - month but then remained stable. In October, due to the mediocre performance of black metal prices, the consumption of galvanizing was lower than expected, and the start - up rate showed a downward trend. - In the die - casting zinc alloy industry, in early October, the start - up rate declined slightly month - on - month due to the holidays. In the middle of the month, it increased significantly but then weakened. In November, with the arrival of the traditional off - season, orders are expected to be sluggish, and the start - up rate may further decline. - In the zinc oxide industry, the start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises first decreased and then increased in October. Overall, the start - up rate was relatively stable compared with previous years, but the peak - season effect weakened. The demand in traditional fields was weak, and the increase in the start - up rate in the later stage was limited. - From the perspective of zinc terminal industries, the real estate industry remained weak, infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the automobile industry showed good production and sales data. In November, downstream terminal demand entered the off - season, and demand may gradually weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [31][33][37] 3.2.6. Obvious Differentiation of Domestic and Overseas Zinc Inventories - In October, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 33,800 tons at the end of the month. Currently, LME inventory is at an absolute low in recent years. Although LME plans to introduce policies to restrict large near - month positions, overseas spot premiums have fallen from high levels. With the narrowing of domestic export profits, the low - inventory situation overseas may continue. - In October, domestic zinc social inventory continued to rise and then slightly declined from the high level at the end of the month. Currently, the inventory is still at a high level in recent years, with relatively large inventory pressure. In November, as downstream demand enters the off - season and domestic zinc supply is expected to shrink, the domestic inventory pressure may be further relieved. [42][44] 3.3. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, there is great uncertainty in the external environment. The Sino - US leaders' meeting improved market sentiment in the short term, but Trump's policies are still variable. The Fed's interest rate cut with a hawkish stance and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress zinc prices. Domestically, policies form a support. The suggestion to set a production capacity cap for zinc and the "15th Five - Year Plan" boost long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. - On the supply side, global zinc mine supply is growing at a high - speed year - on - year, and the long - term ore supply shortage is easing. However, in the short term, the increase in mine production mainly flows into China, and overseas ore supply remains tight with low inventory. Due to various factors, domestic and overseas zinc concentrate processing fees have decreased, and domestic smelting enterprises' profit compression is expected to lead to supply contraction. The opening of the export window relieves domestic inventory pressure. - On the demand side, the real estate industry remains weak, infrastructure investment declines month - on - month, and the domestic automobile industry grows steadily. However, downstream demand enters the off - season, and demand may further weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After major macro - events are settled, the market shifts to fundamentals. In November, both supply and demand are weak. The reduction in processing fees strengthens cost support. The decline in refined zinc output and zinc ingot exports alleviate the high - supply pressure. Although demand is marginally weakening, it still has resilience. The pattern of low inventory and strong structure of LME zinc is difficult to reverse in the short term, which will continuously support the zinc market. It is expected that the center of zinc prices will move up in November [3][70]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In October, the main contract of SHFE zinc generally continued to oscillate in a low - level range. Macro and micro factors were intertwined. With the settlement of major macro - events at the end of the month, market sentiment improved, driving up risky assets such as non - ferrous metals. The contradiction in the fundamentals focused on the change of zinc ingot exports. The SHFE - LME ratio dropped to an extreme value, strengthening the expectation of zinc ingot exports, but the export efficiency was low, making the SHFE zinc trend stalemate. By the end of the month, the futures price closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.43%. - LME zinc's oscillation center continued to move up. In the middle of the month, it was suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar. After a phased adjustment, it found support near the 40 - day moving average. At the end of the month, the risk of short - squeeze overseas intensified, and the LME 0 - 3 spot premium refreshed the high since 1997. LME zinc turned strong again, breaking through $3,000/ton and finally closing at $3,050/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.16% [8]. 3.2 Macro - aspect 3.2.1 US Aspect - The US economic growth rate declined. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5. The employment market was weak, and inflation data was lower than expected. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, in line with expectations, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. But Powell's post - meeting statement was hawkish, and the market significantly lowered the expectation of continuous interest - rate cuts in December. - At the end of October, the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents led to a phased agreement, which eased the trade situation and was beneficial to market risk appetite. However, the US government shutdown, data delays, and the hawkish attitude towards interest - rate cuts put pressure on risky assets [11][12]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Aspect - The Eurozone economy recovered, but the sustainability of the recovery was to be observed. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.0. The GDP growth rate rebounded quarter - on - quarter but slowed year - on - year. The employment market was stable, and inflation declined slightly. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time in October and emphasized a data - dependent policy path. The economic recovery and inflation differences among countries increased the policy divergence within the ECB, and it was expected to be more cautious than the Fed [13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Aspect - The domestic economic downward pressure increased. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter slowed down, and economic data in September was further differentiated. The export and production sectors were strong, while consumption and investment were weak. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee and the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" construction opinions injected long - term confidence into the market. Although the economic recovery slowed down, the probability of achieving the annual GDP growth target was high, and mild policies were still expected [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply Situation - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Recovery**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of global zinc concentrates was 8.297 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Overseas zinc mines maintained stable production, and it was expected that the overseas zinc concentrate increment would be about 550,000 tons for the whole year. In China, the zinc concentrate output in September was 314,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. It was expected to continue to decline in November [23][26]. - **Adjustment of Domestic and Overseas Processing Fees and High - level Zinc Ore Imports**: In November, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 650 yuan/ton. The average import ore processing fee was $105.54/dry ton, with a month - on - month increase of $18.03/dry ton. The import of zinc concentrates remained at a high level, but the growth space was limited [29][30]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply Situation - **Increased Production Expectation of Overseas Refineries and High - level Domestic Supply**: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.138 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.03%. Domestic production was stable, and new capacities gradually released output, while overseas refineries contributed to the main reduction. In the fourth quarter, some overseas refineries had the expectation of resuming and increasing production, but the willingness to significantly increase production was still insufficient [33][34]. - **High - level Monthly Output of Refined Zinc from January to November and Increased Expectation of Zinc Ingot Exports**: In October, the refined zinc output was 617,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.85% and a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It was expected to decrease by 0.94% to 611,400 tons in November. The import of refined zinc was expected to have no increment, while the export window opened intermittently, and the export volume was expected to increase significantly [39][40]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand Situation - **Marginal Recovery of Terminal Consumption in Europe and the US with Uncertain Sustainability**: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc consumption was 9.0216 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2%. Overseas consumption increased by 1.35% year - on - year, and domestic consumption increased by 2.78% year - on - year. The supply surplus in the global zinc market expanded [47]. - **Weak Performance of Initial - stage Enterprises'开工率 and Resilience of Galvanized Exports**: In October, the开工率 of initial - stage galvanizing and zinc oxide enterprises was at a relatively low level, and that of die - casting alloy enterprises was at a neutral level. It was expected to decline in November. The export of galvanized sheets in September was 1.2262 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.73% and a year - on - year increase of 2.27%. It was expected to decline in October [52][53][54]. - **Weak Traditional Consumption and Differentiated Emerging Consumption**: In traditional consumption, the infrastructure investment growth rate declined, and the real estate sector continued to be weak. In the automotive sector, production and sales were good. In the white - goods sector, the air - conditioner market faced challenges, and the production plan for November was adjusted downward. In the emerging consumption sector, the decline in the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity narrowed, and the wind power sector was expected to have positive growth in the fourth quarter [55][61][62]. 3.3.4 Differentiated Domestic and Overseas Inventories - The LME inventory accelerated to decline since mid - July. In October, the LME 0 - 3 spot premium soared, and the inventory decreased to 35,300 tons by the end of the month. It was expected to stabilize and slightly rebound but remain at a low level. - The domestic social zinc ingot inventory was at a high level in October, reaching 161,500 tons. It was expected to remain high, but if the zinc ingot export efficiency improved, the inventory pressure might be relieved [65]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Sino - US phased agreement and the Fed's October interest - rate cut were in line with expectations, but the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut increased. The domestic economic recovery slowed down, and mild policies were expected. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" provided long - term confidence. - Supply - side: Northern mines entered the seasonal production off - season, and the processing fees decreased, strengthening cost support. The refined zinc supply was expected to decrease slightly, and the supply - side pressure was marginally relieved. - Demand - side: Terminal consumption was flat, with pressure on infrastructure and real estate. The automotive sector continued to improve, and the consumption in the photovoltaic and wind - power fields was strong. In November, the consumption entered the off - season transition period, and the initial - stage enterprises'开工率 was expected to decline moderately. - Overall: In November, both supply and demand were weak. The reduction in processing fees and zinc ingot exports alleviated the supply pressure, and the demand had resilience. The low - inventory and strong - structure pattern of LME zinc would support the zinc market, and the zinc price center was expected to move up [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the realized export increment, the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the transmission of the tight - mine logic, which provides some support for zinc prices. However, the upside is constrained by weak consumption, leading to a weak rebound and repair of SHFE zinc at low levels [7][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1. Market Review - In Q1, the center of zinc prices declined and entered a wide - range oscillation range. In Q2, macro - risk events drove SHFE zinc futures prices to gap down and move lower. The shadow of tariff policies persisted, and the oversupply in the industrial supply - demand situation pressured zinc prices, which oscillated within a range. In Q3, the anti - involution trend in the domestic commodity market and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts pushed the macro - environment to turn warmer. However, the continuous drag from the SHFE zinc fundamentals prevented resonance, resulting in a pattern of rising and then falling within a range. In July, tariff policies increased trade uncertainty, causing the market sentiment to turn cautious. The macro and fundamental aspects resonated, and SHFE zinc dipped to 21,865 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the anti - involution sentiment swept through the commodity market, and SHFE zinc led the rally among non - ferrous metals. At the end of July, the lack of super - expected stimulus in the Politburo meeting, combined with the fundamental drag, pressured SHFE zinc again. In August, the core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingots in the zinc market became more prominent during the off - season of demand. Supported by overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the low - inventory pattern on the LME, SHFE zinc was difficult to decline significantly, oscillating between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton. In September, the strengthening overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the shift of the LME 0 - 3 structure to Back and its widening supported the zinc price from the external market. In China, the supply exceeded demand, and the inflection point of social inventory destocking was postponed. SHFE zinc lacked upward momentum and maintained an oscillating pattern. In late September, affected by the macro - environment, the strengthening US dollar led to long - position liquidation in LME zinc, dragging SHFE zinc below 22,000 yuan/ton. In October, with the opening of the export window, some zinc ingots were exported, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally [9][10]. 3.1.2. Future Outlook - On the mine side, seasonal production cuts in northern domestic mines and some mines' active production control after completing their annual plans have led to a decline in domestic zinc - mine supply. The zinc - mine TC is still expected to weaken. In October, the imported zinc - mine processing fee also showed a peak - and - decline trend. Although the internal - external ratio has recovered from its low level, zinc - mine imports are still at a loss, highlighting the price advantage of domestic mines. With the support of smelters' winter - storage demand, the domestic TC is under more significant pressure. On the supply side, although smelters currently have relatively abundant raw - material inventories, the decline in domestic zinc - mine processing fees and the tightening of raw - material supply may restrict zinc - ingot production. On the demand side, the "Silver October" peak season ended, and the primary consumption sector performed mediocrely, with year - on - year performance worse than last year. Coupled with the weak prices of the black - metal sector, there were few bright spots overall. Affected by the closure of the import window, zinc - ingot imports significantly shrank. In mid - to late October, the export window to Southeast Asia opened, and the decline in the net - import level alleviated the domestic oversupply situation. The high - premium structure overseas stimulated the delivery of some invisible inventories, and the extreme value of 0 - 3 Back significantly declined. However, the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons. The tight - supply pattern and the generally optimistic macro - environment strongly supported LME zinc [7][25]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Winter Storage Leads to Peaked - and - Declined Processing Fees, and Domestic Zinc - Mine Supply Weakens Month - on - Month - ILZSG indicates that due to planned and unexpected mine closures, zinc - mine production has decreased in the past three years, but it may increase by 4.3% to 1.243 billion tons in 2025. It is expected that due to the increase in concentrate supply, refined - zinc production will grow by 1.8% to 1.373 billion tons in 2025, and demand will grow by 1% to 1.364 billion tons, resulting in a global refined - zinc supply surplus of 93,000 metric tons. In 2025, factors such as the复产, new production, and adjustment of mining plans of overseas zinc concentrates will significantly improve the tight - supply pattern of zinc mines. The overseas market mainly focuses on the Russian Ozernoye and Congo (Kinshasa) Kipushi projects as growth points, and the Irish Tara mine plans to reach full production in 2025. In the fourth quarter, domestic smelters are actively producing due to winter - storage demand, and the demand for domestic zinc mines is strong. However, domestic mines are reducing production due to seasonality and some mines' production control after completing their annual plans, resulting in a month - on - month weakening of supply. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee significantly declined in October. If the domestic supply remains tight, the imported zinc - mine processing fee is expected to decline further. Imported zinc mines are in a long - term loss, and smelters' purchasing willingness is low. The increase in the imported zinc - mine TC previously may lead to the recovery of overseas smelters' production, which may affect future imported - mine inflows, and the imported processing fee is also under downward pressure [26][27][28]. 3.2.2. Smelters' Raw - Material Inventories at a High Level, and the Price of By - Product Sulfuric Acid Rises - Due to the abundant supply at the raw - material end, smelters' raw - material inventories are at a high level. The rising by - product price further stimulates smelting enthusiasm, and domestic zinc - ingot production has increased significantly year - on - year in 2025. Since Q3, the internal - external ratio has decreased, and smelters have continuously snapped up domestic zinc mines due to the economic advantage of domestic mines. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee has peaked and declined, but the smelting - end raw - material inventory is abundant, and zinc - ingot production remained at a high level in September. According to SMM data, domestic zinc - ingot production in September was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The total production from January to September was 5.0691 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.85%. Domestic smelters will start negotiating the zinc - mine processing fee for November with mines. Currently, domestic smelters' demand for raw materials is strong, and the zinc - mine processing fee will continue to decline in the context of a tight - mine pattern. At the beginning of November, the SMM imported zinc - concentrate index decreased by $8.5 per dry ton month - on - month to $110.25 per dry ton, and the average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 150 yuan per metal ton month - on - month to 3,250 yuan per metal ton. The comprehensive zinc - concentrate processing fee (after a 2/8 split) is 4,700 yuan/ton. The decline in TC squeezes the smelting - end profit, but the price of by - product sulfuric acid continues to rise under cost support. In October, the increase in sulfuric - acid prices was less than that at the cost end, and there may be a possibility of production reduction, which drives the trading activity in the smelting - acid market, and the price rises accordingly. However, downstream resistance to high prices is prominent, and the domestic sulfuric - acid market may oscillate at a high level in November [35]. 3.2.3. The Export Window Opens, and Zinc - Ingot Exports Increase Month - on - Month in October - According to the latest customs data, 505,400 physical tons of imported zinc concentrates were imported in September 2025, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative imported zinc - concentrate volume from January to September was 4.008 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. Although the imported zinc - mine window remains closed, the previously locked - price and long - term contract zinc mines of smelters are arriving at ports successively, and the arrival volume of imported zinc mines remains stable. In the fourth quarter, mines are reducing production seasonally, and with the winter - storage demand and the high - level refined - zinc production, domestic smelters' demand for zinc mines is strong. However, the loss of imported zinc mines in October continued to expand compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively snapping up domestic zinc mines instead of importing, resulting in light spot - purchase transactions of imported zinc mines. It is difficult for the imported zinc - mine volume in October to increase further. In September, the imported refined - zinc volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The cumulative imported refined - zinc volume from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, 2,500 tons of refined zinc were exported. The LME 0 - 3 structure overseas once expanded to over $300 per ton, and the high - premium structure stimulated local - area deliveries. The Back structure weakened to below $100 per ton, but the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons, and the tight - supply pattern remained. Overall, the loss of zinc - ingot imports is over 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opens intermittently. It is expected that the zinc - ingot export volume of domestic smelters and traders will increase to about 10,000 tons [39][40]. 3.2.4. The "Silver October" Ends, and It's Difficult to Find Bright Spots in Demand in the Fourth Quarter - The galvanizing start - up rate was 55.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%. The galvanizing raw - material inventory was 12,660 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 367,000 tons. Overall, consumption in October was lower than expected, and black - metal prices were lackluster. Downstream pipe traders mainly made rigid purchases, and the sales of galvanized pipes were poor. Enterprises increased their finished - product inventory and reduced production to lower the start - up rate to prevent excessive inventory. The finished - product inventory increased slightly, and enterprises still plan to lower the start - up rate in the future to prevent inventory accumulation. In terms of die - cast zinc alloys, the start - up rate was 49.73%. The die - cast zinc raw - material inventory was 13,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 10,230 tons. Currently, the overall downstream demand is relatively weak. Traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals are in weak demand, and the current overall demand for real - estate hardware orders is also weak. Recently, affected by aluminum and copper prices, alloy profit support is insufficient, and some enterprises have raised the alloy processing fee. Under this influence, downstream customers also have a certain wait - and - see attitude and mainly make rigid purchases. Looking forward to next week, some enterprises plan to take a holiday to digest in - plant inventory. The start - up rate of zinc - oxide enterprises was 58.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. The zinc - oxide raw - material inventory was 2,417 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 5,740 tons. In the rubber - grade zinc - oxide sector, orders from large - scale tire factories are relatively stable, but the demand from some small - and - medium - sized enterprises is weak. In the ceramic - grade zinc - oxide market, the demand in the coarse - ceramic market is still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises have reported that the demand in the high - end ceramic - grade zinc - oxide sector has also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed - grade and electronic - grade zinc oxide is relatively normal [51][52]. 3.2.5. Real - Estate Sales Continue to Hit Bottom, and Investment Declines Expand - The market trading momentum continues to decline. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment expanded, and the year - on - year decline in commercial - housing sales volume also expanded. From January to September, the national newly built commercial - housing sales area was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points. Real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year cumulatively, and the decline expanded by 1 percentage point. New construction decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points. The completed - area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points. The confidence in real - estate development investment is still weak. According to China Index Academy data, in September, the planned construction area of residential - land transactions in 300 cities decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the land - transfer fee decreased by 7.0% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline narrowed by 24.2 and 23.9 percentage points respectively compared with August. The industry's available funds are still under pressure, and the pressure on real - estate enterprises' funds directly affects the new - development and completion scale of the market. Currently, in addition to maintaining a positive attitude towards the development and construction of some products, enterprises mainly focus on optimizing and revitalizing existing inventory. In the short term, the overall scale - contraction situation in the industry will not change. In core cities, the incremental construction scale is expected to stabilize with the support of the fundamentals [66]. 3.2.6. The Policy of Trading in Old Cars for New Ones in the Auto Market Continues to Show Results - July and August are the traditional off - seasons for auto consumption, and the sales rush at the end of June overdrafted subsequent demand to a certain extent. However, the overall auto - market heat remained at a relatively high level, and the auto market still took the "dual - new" policy of trading in old cars for new ones and scrapping and renewing as the core growth point. In reality, affected by seasonal factors in summer and the transitional adjustment of the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, the growth rate slowed down periodically. In August, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones restarted in various places, and many provinces refined the subsidy - distribution mechanism. Coupled with the intensification of local stimulus policies, the auto market showed a gradual recovery trend. According to the analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues to show results. Some regions that suspended the implementation of the policy resumed subsidies, and policies such as consumer - loan support stabilized consumer confidence. Enterprises continued to launch new models, helping the passenger - car market to operate stably, and sales increased year - on - year. According to the CAAM, in September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.9 million and 2.859 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16% and 12.5% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 15.9% and 13.2% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 21.241 million and 21.246 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and 13.7% respectively. In September, auto exports were 652,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% and a year - on - year increase of 21%. From January to September, auto exports were 4.95 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. Many places have made frequent dynamic adjustments to the policy of trading in old cars for new ones. Some regions such as Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Qinghai have announced the suspension of auto - replacement and renewal subsidies. On the one hand, to ensure the orderly use of the third - and fourth - batch funds by the end of the year, the fund - use plan is refined by field and time. On the other hand, the national subsidy in 2025 is a phased measure, and it is difficult to have the same - scale subsidy in 2026. The exemption amount for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, and the consumer - loan discount rate will be weakened [72][73]. 3.2.7. The Scheduled Production of White Goods for Both Domestic Sales and Exports Declines - According to the latest scheduled - production reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 is 2.847 million units, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease from the actual production in the same period last year. The scheduled production of all three major white

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but the smelting profit is compressed. If the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains the export enthusiasm, and it's difficult for overseas inventories to grow. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - environment remains favorable. [4] Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $212.89/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,400 yuan/ton and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 128,753 lots, and the open interest was 120,693 lots. The highest price was 22,440 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,500 tons, up 1,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, down 1,800 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 966 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.71% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 96.29 million yuan [1] - The non-recurring net profit also showed a loss of 74.55 million yuan, with basic earnings per share at -0.30 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. reported a mixed performance in its Q3 2025 financial results, showing revenue growth but a net loss in the quarter [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 4.776 billion yuan, an increase of 11.26% year-on-year [1] - Q3 2025 net loss was 11.233 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 27.2242 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 13.689 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.19% [1] - Net profit for the first three quarters was 514.207 million yuan, a significant increase of 1110.26% compared to the previous year [1]

Core Insights - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (000751.SZ) reported a revenue of 13.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company reached 51.4207 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 1110.26% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 42.1509 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 572.43% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters: 13.689 billion yuan, up 19.19% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 51.4207 million yuan, up 1110.26% year-on-year [1] - Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses: 42.1509 million yuan, up 572.43% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of approximately 13.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately 51.42 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 1110.26% [1] - The basic earnings per share reached 0.0318 yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 1123.08% [1] Group 2 - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. is 6.4 billion yuan [2]