Core Insights - The nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have plummeted to a five-year low of $14,000 per ton, nearing Indonesia's production cost of $9,000 to $10,000, leading to the shutdown of numerous nickel smelting plants [2] - Indonesia's nickel industry has dramatically shifted from a minor player with a 6% share in the global refined nickel market four years ago to a dominant position with a 65% share in 2024, showcasing an annual production capacity of 2.2 million tons [4] - The initial expectation was that Indonesia's nickel industry would thrive, contributing $30 billion in annual exports and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, but the reality has turned into a nightmare [4] Market Dynamics - Indonesia's miscalculation regarding China's nickel demand led to a ban on nickel ore exports in 2020, aiming to secure Chinese investment in its processing facilities [6][8] - The rapid advancement of battery technology in China, particularly the rise of lithium iron phosphate batteries, has reduced the necessity for nickel, leading to a significant decrease in demand [10] - By the end of 2024, China is expected to increase its strategic nickel reserves by 100,000 tons, capitalizing on the low nickel prices [12] Industry Challenges - Indonesia now faces a paradox of having the world's largest nickel production capacity while becoming a victim of market changes, with domestic consumption unable to keep pace, leading to imports of nickel ore from the Philippines [14] - The broader trend of "de-China" has led many countries to pursue similar ambitions in critical mineral sectors, but without the necessary technological capabilities, they face significant challenges [18] Technological Implications - The success of China's nickel industry is attributed to technological innovation rather than mere resource extraction, with a focus on the entire supply chain from mining to recycling [21] - Countries attempting to replicate China's model must recognize that resource abundance alone is insufficient; technological prowess and strategic stability are crucial for success [25][28]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, with expectations for the second half of the year to focus on short-selling and selling call options [1][8]. Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices fluctuated widely in the first half of the year, reaching a high of 136,000 yuan/ton in Q1 due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but fell back in Q2 due to oversupply [1]. - The price dynamics were influenced by various factors, including Indonesia's RKAB quota adjustments and the Philippines' export bans, which significantly impacted market reactions [1][2]. Policy Impact on Supply - Indonesian and Philippine nickel policies aim to increase industry revenue, categorized into "quantity" and "price" controls, with quantity controls having a more direct but challenging implementation [2]. - The likelihood of significant supply cuts is low, as both countries face resistance to drastic measures that could impact production and employment [2]. Production and Cost Trends - Nickel iron costs have risen due to tight supply of high-grade nickel ore, while demand from stainless steel has weakened, leading to price pressures [3][4]. - The production capacity of MHP and high-nickel products continues to expand, but the pace of new project launches may slow due to declining nickel prices [3][4]. Demand Dynamics - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, has seen production growth, but overall demand is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and lackluster real estate market performance [6][8]. - The electric vehicle sector, a significant source of nickel demand, is facing challenges as competition increases and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries rises [7]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for nickel prices remains bearish, with expectations for seasonal supply increases in Q3 potentially leading to further price declines [8]. - Despite the downward pressure, there may be temporary price increases due to conflicting interests between resource countries and market dynamics [8].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's recent trade agreement with the United States, valued at $34 billion, marks a significant shift in its economic strategy, driven by the need to mitigate economic pressures from U.S. tariffs and to capitalize on its natural resources, particularly nickel, which is crucial for the global renewable energy sector [1][3][9]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The trade agreement includes substantial purchases of natural gas, agricultural products, electronics, machinery, and medical equipment from the U.S., alongside Indonesia's commitment to implement near-zero tariffs on over 1,700 U.S. goods [5][7]. - Indonesia is also easing investment restrictions for U.S. companies, indicating a welcoming stance towards American investments [7]. Group 2: Economic Context - Indonesia's economy heavily relies on its natural resources, with nickel being a key component, as it is one of the world's major suppliers of nickel, which is increasingly in demand for electric vehicle batteries [11][38]. - The U.S. has expressed a need to reduce its dependence on China for rare earth elements, prompting Indonesia to seek collaboration in supplying nickel and other critical minerals [13][34]. Group 3: Regional Implications - The trade dynamics in Southeast Asia are shifting, with countries like Vietnam and Cambodia also making concessions to the U.S. under similar pressures, highlighting a broader trend of smaller nations adapting to the geopolitical landscape [30][50]. - The agreements reflect a strategic pivot in the region, where economic survival often necessitates alignment with larger powers, showcasing the complexities of global trade relationships [32][50]. Group 4: Financial Trends - There is a notable trend towards "de-dollarization" among Southeast Asian nations, as they increasingly seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade settlements, with the Chinese yuan gaining traction [42][46]. - This shift may indicate a significant change in the global financial landscape, driven by the pressures exerted by U.S. policies on these countries [46].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of State announced sanctions against Cuban President Díaz-Canel and other senior officials, which may affect their ability to attend international events in the U.S. [2][3] - The sanctions are part of a broader strategy to strengthen economic sanctions against Cuba, including updating the list of restricted entities [3][4] - Cuba's Foreign Minister Rodríguez stated that U.S. sanctions have caused annual economic losses of billions of dollars, with cumulative losses exceeding $164.1 billion due to decades of economic and financial blockades [1][6] Group 2 - Cuba's economy is heavily reliant on key sectors such as nickel mining, sugar production, and tourism, with significant mineral resources including nickel, cobalt, and iron [5][6] - The country faces severe shortages of essential goods due to U.S. sanctions, which cover nearly all aspects of daily life, leading to a significant decline in living standards [6][7] - In 2023, Cuba's GDP was reported at 51.237 billion Cuban pesos (approximately $1.9 billion), with major exports including nickel, seafood, and tobacco [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 不锈钢盘面拉涨，现货小幅跟涨 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-10日沪镍主力合约2508开于119140元/吨，收于121140元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.41%，当日成交量为 102155手，持仓量为65815手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘小幅上冲后横盘振荡，日盘继续横盘振荡振荡，午后快速拉升突破上方阻力后继续上涨， 收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日有所减少，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发 展中心近日表示，锚定到2035年基本实现新型城镇化目标，紧抓城镇化动力仍然较强的关键时期，高质量推进新 型城镇化四大行动，为中国式现代化提供有力支撑。菲律宾方面，苏里高矿区降雨仍存，加之季节性台风影响， 装船出货效率迟缓。印尼方面，镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出现减产得以缓解。7月（一期）内贸 升水维持+24-25。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约450元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上 调，盘面镍价快速回升，重回12万，需求未见明显增长，部分贸易商下调现货升贴水以促成交，下游企业按需采 购为主，现货成交一般。其中金川镍 ...

沪镍主力合约夜盘小幅高开振荡反弹受阻后振荡回落，日盘开盘继续振荡下跌获支撑后横盘振荡，收阴线。成交 量较上个交易日小幅减少，持仓量较上个交易日略有减少。当地时间6日美国总统特朗普发文说，美国政府将于当 地时间7日中午12时起公布与贸易伙伴的关税信函或关税协议。特朗普此前表示，拟于8月1日起对部分国家的商品 实施最高达70%的关税措施。特朗普在社交媒体表示任何与金砖国家的反美政策保持一致的国家，都将被额外征收 10%的关税。中国物流与采购联合会6日发布数据显示，6月份，全球制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.5%，较上月 上升0.3个百分点，连续两个月环比上升，但仍在50%以下。7月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年6 月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美元，较5月末上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%。菲律宾方面，苏里高矿区降雨 仍存，加之季节性台风影响，装船出货效率迟缓。印尼方面，镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出现减 产得以缓解。7月（一期）内贸升水维持+24-25。据Mysteel调研印尼14家样本项目统计，2025年6月印尼冰镍金属 产量2.46万吨，环比增加51.68%，同比减少 ...

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes the importance of resource accumulation, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions, suggesting that current resource abundance may not last forever [1] - China has purchased 100,000 tons of nickel since December last year, storing it as a national reserve to secure its supply chain amid rising tensions with the US [1] - The European Union is actively seeking to build rare earth reserves to counter China's influence, indicating a competitive dynamic in resource acquisition [1][2] Group 2 - China has not weaponized its rare earth exports but has optimized its export policies in response to international pressures, requiring importers to disclose usage and client information [2] - The relationship between China and Europe is characterized by mistrust, with Europe imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, prompting retaliatory measures from China [2] - China's strategy includes maintaining a stronghold on rare earth resources, which are crucial for Western military and advanced electronic industries, thereby enhancing its bargaining power [2][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, an increase in intermediate product supply, the resurgence of tariff issues, and average market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will face pressure in the near - term and seek support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, due to steel mill and nickel - iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with average spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 121,730 yuan/ton and closed at 120,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,191 lots, and the open interest was 69,366 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a large negative line on the daily chart, with slightly lower trading volume and slightly higher open interest compared to the previous day [1][2]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Trump announced that the US government would release tariff letters or agreements with trading partners at 12:00 noon on July 7, and planned to impose up to 70% tariffs on some countries' goods starting from August 1. Any country aligning with the BRICS anti - US policy would face an additional 10% tariff. In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. As of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.3174 trillion US dollars, up 3.22 billion US dollars from the end of May, an increase of 0.98% [2]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: In the Philippines, heavy rainfall and seasonal typhoons in the Surigao mining area slowed down shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated ferronickel metal production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June 2025, Indonesia's nickel wet - process intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 1,500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands in the market also decreased accordingly. The spot supply of refined nickel was sufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, with average spot transactions. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 300 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,832 (- 227.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,470 (0) tons [2]. 3.2 Nickel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly operate within a range. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [3]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On July 7, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,760 yuan/ton and closed at 12,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,639 lots, and the open interest was 90,442 lots. The contract showed a downward trend with a medium - sized negative line on the daily chart, with slightly higher trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply - Side Factors**: Similar to the nickel market, heavy rainfall and typhoons in the Philippines' Surigao mining area affected shipping. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage was alleviated by production cuts. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. Nickel - iron quotes were mainly in the range of 915 - 920 yuan/nickel (including bottom - hold tax) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The stainless - steel futures market was weak, with low market inquiry activity and insufficient transaction follow - up. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 125 - 275 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Cross - period**: None. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Futures - Spot**: None. - **Options**: None [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **L利多因素**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, with strong price - holding intentions from mines, and rising sea freight costs support the cost. Policy disturbances in Indonesia (such as shortened quotas) and favorable new - energy policies strengthen the expectation of a strong supply chain [3]. - **利空因素**: Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season for demand, increasing the pressure to reduce inventory and suppressing consumption. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is expected to loosen, and combined with high - level inventory fluctuations, the supply - demand contradiction has weakened [3]. - **交易咨询观点**: There are limited changes in the fundamentals. Nickel price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and macro factors, and there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Data** - **镍期货**: The latest value of SHFE nickel main contract is 122,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.28%. The latest value of LME nickel 3M is 15,355 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 165 dollars and an increase rate of 1.17%. The trading volume increased by 60.25% week - on - week, while the position decreased by 6.9% week - on - week [4]. - **不锈钢期货**: The latest value of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,730 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 170 yuan and an increase rate of 1%. The trading volume decreased by 9.97% week - on - week, and the position decreased by 8.28% week - on - week [4]. - **现货价格**: The latest value of Jinchuan nickel is 124,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 800 yuan and an increase rate of 0.65%. The latest value of imported nickel is 122,750 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan and an increase rate of 0.74% [4]. - **库存情况**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 202,470 tons, a decrease of 1,158 tons. The stainless - steel social inventory is 978 tons, a decrease of 14.1 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [4][6]. **Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel** - **产量情况**: The report presents the seasonal production of China's refined nickel, total monthly supply of primary nickel including imports, nickel - iron production in China and Indonesia [14][18][20]. - **库存情况**: It shows the seasonal changes in domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel inventory, as well as the seasonal changes in nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports [15][16]. **Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel** - **价格情况**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) are presented, along with the seasonal profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate [22][24][26]. - **产量情况**: The monthly production of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown [28]. **Stainless Steel** - **利润率情况**: The seasonal profit margin of China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils is presented [29]. - **产量和库存情况**: The seasonal production and inventory of stainless steel are shown [30][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: No clear investment rating provided, but analysis suggests potential downward pressure and limited upside [4] - Stainless Steel: No clear investment rating, expected to trade in a narrow range [5] - Industrial Silicon: Recommended for short - selling, with limited upside potential [30] - Polysilicon: Suggested to hold positions cautiously and wait for policy details [30] - Lithium Carbonate: Recommended to short on rallies, with attention on upper - limit pressure [56] - Palm Oil: In a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Short - term seasonal short - selling is possible, and long - position building at low levels can be considered in late Q3 [85] - Soybean Oil: Weak reality persists, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84] 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The support at the nickel ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upward momentum for prices [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The upside of industrial silicon is limited, and short - selling is recommended. Polysilicon should be observed for policy details, and short - selling can be considered after the market sentiment subsides [30][34] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures profit margin is open, but the upward pressure is significant due to factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and the cancellation of US new - energy subsidies [56][57] - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is currently influenced by international oil prices, with a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation. Soybean oil's weak reality continues, waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract showed certain price fluctuations. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,270 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore support is weakening, and stainless steel supply and demand are both weak. The nickel - iron inventory has reached a historical high [4][5] - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased, while LME nickel inventory decreased. Stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly [6][7] - **Market News**: There were various events such as potential export restrictions on nickel from Canada, project startups and shutdowns in Indonesia, and policy - related news in the Philippines and Indonesia [10][11] **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated widely, and spot prices rose. Polysilicon futures rose significantly, and spot prices increased [30] - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon inventory decreased, and polysilicon upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of both showed different trends [31][32] - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon is recommended for short - selling, and polysilicon should be observed for policy details [34][35] **Lithium Carbonate** - **Price Movement**: The lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated upwards, with different price changes in futures and spot markets [56] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is suppressed by factors such as anti - cut - throat competition and US subsidy cancellation. Inventory continues to increase [57][58] - **Market Outlook**: Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [59] **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil** - **Price Movement**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 1.15% last week, and soybean oil 09 contract fell 0.72% [84] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil has a situation of uncertain production and potential supply - demand changes. Soybean oil's weak reality persists [84][85] - **Market Outlook**: Palm oil is in a weak - reality, strong - expectation situation, and soybean oil is waiting for effective drivers from the US soybean side [84][85]