2025Q4 锂精矿（化学和技术级）的平均实现价格为 850 美元/吨（澳大利亚离岸价），环比上涨 16%。 [Table_Title] Greenbushes 锂矿 2025Q4 产销量分别环比+10%、 +9%至 35.2 万吨、32.8 万吨，2025Q4 单位现金生 产成本环比下降 4%至 373 澳元/吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►锂业务 1、Greenbushes 锂矿（100%基础） 2025Q4 锂精矿生产量为 35.2 万吨，环比增长 10%，同比 减少 10%。 2025Q4 锂精矿销售量为 32.8 万吨，环比增长 9%，同比增 长 5%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 4 日 2025Q4 单位现金生产成本为 373 澳元/吨，环比下跌 4%，同比上涨 15%。 2025Q4 资本支出为 1.178 亿澳元（2025Q3：1.211 亿澳 元 ）。 CGP3 于 2025 年 12 月 18 日按照调试计划处理了第一批矿 石。目前已完成一些小型附加工程，重点是提高产能 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 4 日 [Table_Title] Greenbushes 锂矿 2025Q4 产销量分别环比+10%、 +9%至 35.2 万吨、32.8 万吨，2025Q4 单位现金生 产成本环比下降 4%至 373 澳元/吨 CGP3 于 2025 年 12 月 18 日按照调试计划处理了第一批矿 石。目前已完成一些小型附加工程，重点是提高产能。 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，Windfield 持有现金余额 1.992 亿美元（2.976 亿澳元），已提取债务 12 亿美元 （17.929 亿澳元），其中 1.5 亿美元债务已于 2026 年第二 季度偿还。 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►锂业务 1、Greenbushes 锂矿（100%基础） 2025Q4 锂精矿生产量为 35.2 万吨，环比增长 10%，同比 减少 10%。 2025Q4 锂精矿销售量为 32.8 万吨，环比增长 9%，同比增 长 5%。 2025Q4 锂精矿（化学和技术级）的平均实现价格为 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a predominantly positive trend, with nickel futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a peak of 137,770.00 yuan/ton, marking a rise of approximately 3.07% [1] - The current nickel market is characterized by a strong upward trend, supported by concerns over tight resource supply and rising boundary costs, despite a seasonal increase in stainless steel inventory due to the Chinese New Year [2] - Analysts from various institutions highlight that the supply-demand dynamics for nickel are improving, with expectations of a 10% to 15% decrease in nickel ore production from Indonesia, which could positively impact the market [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment and overall market conditions are currently influencing nickel prices, with a strong US dollar previously causing declines in dollar-denominated metals [3] - The supply side is expected to remain tight due to seasonal weather impacts in major mining regions, which may limit production and shipping volumes [3] - There is a cautious sentiment in the market regarding further purchases at high prices, as many manufacturers have completed their pre-holiday stockpiling [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Lygend Resources (02245) has increased by over 5%, reaching HKD 26.96, driven by upgraded nickel price forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Macquarie due to tightening supply signals from Indonesia [1] Group 1: Nickel Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 nickel price forecast from USD 14,800 per ton to USD 17,200 per ton, predicting prices could reach around USD 18,700 per ton by Q2 2026 as supply tightens [1] - Macquarie increased its 2026 average nickel price forecast on the London Metal Exchange from USD 15,000 per ton to USD 17,750 per ton [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Lygend Resources is a leading global nickel enterprise with a comprehensive coverage of the nickel industry chain, starting from nickel ore trading and gradually transforming into an industrial company [1] - The company has established long-term trade and supply agreements with mining companies in the Philippines and Indonesia, and has developed a total nickel production capacity of 400,000 metal tons on OBI Island, Indonesia [1] - Lygend Resources has extended its operations downstream to include nickel sulfate and cobalt, forming a complete nickel product service system [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel market is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions [2][5]. - In February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in the stainless - steel industry, and the nickel - iron expectation provides a bottom support [2][6]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the futures market shows a strong performance [2][12]. - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to the situation of the Beijing meeting [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 134,830, down 5,180 from T - 1, down 11,280 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585, up 165 from T - 1, down 955 from T - 5, etc [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 663,364, down 144,776 from T - 1, up 139,968 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 377,013, down 247,788 from T - 1, down 102,979 from T - 5, etc [6]. Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" [6]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [7]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [9]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0; the trend intensity of stainless - steel is 0 [11]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 148,100, up 15,660 from T - 1, down 31,500 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the 2605 contract was 619,542, down 24,772 from T - 1, up 237,229 from T - 5, etc [12]. Macro and Industry News - Shanghai will deepen the construction of an international economic center, carry out technological transformation and upgrading in industries such as petrochemical and steel, and support the development of new energy vehicle and other industries [13][14]. - The "250,000 - ton/year electrolyte solvent project" of Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has been fully put into production [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,815 yuan/ton, up 20 from T - 1, down 45 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 50,000 yuan/ton, up 2,950 from T - 1, down 1,900 from T - 5 [16]. Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6,233 newly - added on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household - use photovoltaics) in China, including 36 wind - power projects, 6,190 photovoltaic projects, and 7 biomass - power generation projects [15][16]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1 [18].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 板块集体回调，镍不锈钢价格大幅回撤 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-02日沪镍主力合约2603开于138000元/吨，收于129650元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-11.00%，当日成交量 为808140（-204303）手，持仓量为110945（-21503）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约以跌停收盘，核心驱动是宏观紧缩预期升温、外盘大跌传导与产业高库存共振，叠 加多头恐慌性平仓，技术面破位加剧抛压。宏观方面，特朗普提名沃什任美联储新掌门，鹰派预期升温，美元走 强、美债收益率回升，大宗商品全线下挫，沪镍受系统性风险冲击。伦镍大跌形成外盘负向传导，加剧内盘抛压。 此外，国内精炼镍库存连续三周累库，供应宽松而下游节前备货意愿不足，高库存压制价格。精炼镍对镍铁溢价 偏高，镍铁转产高冰镍增加，进一步冲击现货市场。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，菲律宾方面，受上周北方矿山高价成交的坚实支撑，贸易商挺价意愿坚决，国内CIF 价格议价重心被迫上移。1.3%品位镍矿价格上涨至48美元/湿吨，1.5%品位价格区间也上探至59-62美元，表明市场 正在逐步消化极端成本。印尼 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Nickel Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the nickel market, particularly the impact of Indonesia's nickel quota policy and its implications for supply and pricing dynamics in the industry [1][3][10]. Key Points and Arguments Nickel Quota Policy - Indonesia's nickel quota policy is tightening, with a significant reduction to 250 million tons by 2026, leading to an expected supply gap of approximately 80 million tons, which may support a rebound in nickel prices [1][4][10]. - The Indonesian government aims to stabilize nickel prices to increase fiscal revenue, with historical data indicating a price floor around $15,000 per ton [10]. Supply Dynamics - The Philippines is expected to have flexible nickel supply capabilities, potentially compensating for part of the supply gap, but a real shortfall of about 30 to 40 million tons may still exist [1][7]. - Other countries like Australia and New Caledonia can provide additional nickel supply, but only if prices remain above $20,000 per ton [1][8]. Price Trends - Nickel prices are under pressure, with $20,000 per ton identified as a critical resistance level in the short term. Long-term price trends will depend on supply-demand balance, policy changes, and macroeconomic factors [2][12]. - Current global nickel inventory exceeds 300,000 tons, but actual supply-demand balance may reflect a shortfall of 400,000 to 500,000 tons when accounting for grade fluctuations and inventory consumption [9][10]. Market Sentiment - The recent drop in silver prices has negatively impacted the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector, although long-term demand growth driven by the energy revolution could support recovery [6][12]. - The nickel market has experienced weak price performance over the past year, primarily due to insufficient demand from the energy transition and competition from alternative battery technologies [2][5]. Future Outlook - The nickel price outlook is contingent on supply-demand equilibrium and policy developments. Short-term price support may arise from quota reductions and improved market sentiment, while long-term growth will depend on global economic conditions and the rise of alternative materials [5][12][24]. - The potential for cobalt pricing to be established could elevate nickel's bottom valuation by $500 to $1,000, but the upper price limit may be constrained by supply responses [1][15]. Additional Considerations - The Indonesian government's control over nickel pricing and quotas may face challenges from large enterprises with strong bargaining power, which could influence future policy effectiveness [10][18]. - The impact of high-cost projects outside Indonesia, which require sustained high nickel prices to remain viable, could also affect market dynamics if prices fall [19][21]. Conclusion - The nickel market is navigating a complex landscape shaped by regulatory changes, supply constraints, and evolving demand dynamics. Stakeholders should closely monitor policy developments and macroeconomic indicators to assess future price movements and investment opportunities in the sector [5][12][24].

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游陆续采购，盘面下方空间较有限 | 4 | | 工业硅：硅厂减产落地，下方空间不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 2）新华社 12 月 12 日从商务部获悉，商务部、海关总署日前印发公告，决定对部分钢铁产品实施出口 许可证管理。公告自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起执行。 3）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 ...

数据显示，2月2日上海电解镍现货价格报价140200.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格(129650.00元/吨)升水 10550.0元/吨。 (2月2日)全国镍价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 型 | | | | 品名:1#镍;牌号:Ni9990; | 140250元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市 | | | 吨 | | | 场 | | 品名:1#镍;牌号:Ni9990; | 144400元/ | 市场价 | 广东省/广州 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 镍钴总量≥(%):99.96;品名:金川电解镍 | 143800元/ | 出厂价 | 甘肃省/金昌 | 金川集团有限公司 | | 板; | 吨 | | 市 | | | 品名:1#镍;牌号:Ni9990; | 146800元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海金藏物资公司 | | | 吨 | | | | | 品名:1#镍;牌号:Ni9990; | 140050元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". The short - term price is easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing an obvious wide - range oscillation pattern. For nickel, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the price, but the rising cost of nickel ore and ferronickel provides some support. For stainless steel, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand [1][3]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of Shanghai nickel opened at 145,240 yuan/ton and closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 783,275 (+378,683) lots, and the open interest was 136,553 (+2,253) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a wide - range oscillating upward trend. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the risk appetite of global commodities recovered, the non - ferrous sector strengthened as a whole, and capital inflows pushed up the price. LME nickel was strong overnight, providing external support for Shanghai nickel. However, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the nickel price, and the demand boost from new energy vehicles is limited [1]. - The nickel ore market remained stable. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the trading atmosphere became calm. The mine side maintained a firm quotation. There was no new tender price on that day, and the FOB tender price of some mines' 1.3% nickel ore was 40 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium rose to 28 - 32 US dollars/wet ton in February, and the supply of nickel ore was tight. The approval progress of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) was slow [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 151,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable with a slight increase. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 450 yuan/ton to 7,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 46,854 (+2,032) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 (+132) tons [2]. Strategy - The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of stainless steel opened at 14,500 yuan/ton and closed at 14,585 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,945 (-16,622) lots, and the open interest was 113,676 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel followed Shanghai nickel and showed an oscillating upward trend. The strengthening of Shanghai nickel enhanced the cost support of ferronickel. The significant reduction of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota led to the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in nickel ore quotation further pushed up the cost, providing bottom support for the stainless steel price. However, the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction was light [3][4]. - The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,400 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,350 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point, with no change [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will be enhanced, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is mainly range operation, buying low and selling high, and setting stop - losses strictly. The medium - term strategy is to pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before laying out single - side positions. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].