行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 30 日沪镍再度大幅上涨，主力最高触及 134480 元/吨，尾盘小幅回落报收于 132390，涨幅 3.86%，总持仓增加 1.8 万手至 34.6 万手。在前期印尼 RKAB 缩减 配额消息刺激之下，资金炒作情绪仍在升温，镍价波动幅度放大。而在镍价大幅 上涨带动下，产业链其他产品价格也在随之攀升，30 日 NPI 报价继续增加 2.5 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支撑 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 | 6 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡，关注行情波动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月31日 2025 年 12 月 31 日 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 132,390 | 6,680 | 8,950 | 20,100 | ...

智通财经APP获悉，新疆新鑫矿业(03833)再涨超6%，月内涨超30%。截至发稿，涨5.45%，报2.71港 元，成交额2591.45万港元。 中金表示，考虑到当前收紧镍矿配额对印尼经济冲击较小，且镍价抬升有利于增加税收，提升本土资源 的价值，收紧镍矿配额政策最终落实的概率较大。广州期货则表示，印尼政府表示配额方案尚在内部讨 论阶段，而且近年印尼镍矿配额政策相关消息曾多次在反复炒作后被证伪，加上矿企可以补充申请配额 或者从菲律宾进口镍矿，因此该消息对镍影响可能被高估。 消息面上，据印尼镍矿商协会表示，政府在2026年工作计划和预算(RKAB)中提出的镍矿产量目标约2.5 亿吨，较2025年设定的3.79亿吨大幅下降。公开资料显示，新疆新鑫矿业旗下全资拥有喀拉通克、黄山 东、黄山和香山四座镍铜矿，拥有湘河街和穆家河两座钒矿，还有卡尔恰尔萤石矿。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]

镍研究：印尼镍矿业政策分析与展望 20251227 摘要 印尼 2026 年初步镍矿配额预计缩减至 2.5 亿吨，远低于 2025 年实际 使用量，但可通过申请补充配额缓解供应压力。配额削减或推高镍价， 对小型矿山构成挑战，而优先考虑已用完配额、拥有工厂股份及距离较 近的矿山。 印尼计划在 2025 年春节前后大幅上调镍矿基准价，可能从目前的 23 美元/吨提高至 50 美元/吨左右，并区分湿法和火法冶炼镍矿定价，这将 显著增加矿企生产成本，促使其提高产品售价以维持利润。 印尼政府严格执行环保检查，对破坏森林的镍矿企业处以高额罚款，最 高达每公顷 40 万美元。目前镍矿相关罚款总额约为 50 亿美元，涉及印 尼主要镍矿企业，但具体金额仍在商议中。 印尼政府计划重新分配采矿权，2026 年第一季度出台细则，2027 年市 场供应量将显著提升，但在 2026 年整体供应仍趋紧。镍矿行业成为新 的关注点，原有采矿权被收回并重新分配给背景强硬的公司。 多个印尼镍铁项目已放缓或取消，现有项目也处于低负荷甚至停产状态。 按照美元计价，目前所有裂铁厂成本大约为每吨 15,000 美元，大多数 工厂处于亏损状态。在配额收紧情 ...

2025年12月28日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 工业硅：关注供应端扰动，情绪发酵或推高盘面 | 12 | | 多晶硅：震荡格局，关注市场情绪 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：基差背离待修正，正极厂启动检修 | 21 | | 棕榈油：减产逐步兑现，短期价格反弹 | 29 | | 豆油：美豆企稳，豆油震荡运行 | 29 | | 豆粕：震荡，规避元旦假期风险 | 35 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 35 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 40 | | 白糖：维持弱基差预期 | 46 | | 棉花：震荡偏强，注意市场情绪变化20251228 | 53 | | 生猪：惜售情绪旺，等待元旦后现货印证 | 60 | | 花生：关注现货 | 66 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 ...

供应端收缩也好，市场资金入场炒作也罢，最终影响产品价格 走向的还是实际的需求情况。那么，当前电解镍的下游需求是 否正在出现好转呢？ 作者：邹永勤 封图：图虫创意 "上周（指12月15日至12月19日，下同）我还在为仓库里的那批高价进的镍板发愁呢，没想到价 格很快涨上来了，有时候幸福来得就是那么突然。"12月26日，江先生在接受经济观察报记者采 访时如是说。江先生在深圳市坪山区经营着一家小型贸易公司，以销售镍板、镍角、镍饼、镍珠等 产品为主。 上海期货交易所（下称"上期所"）数据显示，沪镍主连合约价格今年以来持续单边下跌，并在上 周创下了111700元/吨的近5年新低，但其后却迅速走出了大逆转行情，并在本周（指12月22日 至12月26日，下同）一度冲高至130880元/吨，刷新近8个月的高点。短短一周时间每吨价差高 达将近两万元，如此剧烈的震荡吸引了市场的高度关注。 对此，国信期货首席分析师顾冯达在接受经济观察报记者采访时表示，一方面近期印尼政策调整引 发了市场预期的变化，另一方面亦存在资金推动的作用，"近期沪镍期货走出大涨行情主要是上述 两大因素的共同结果，并非当下行业的供需基本面出现了实质性好转"。 供应 ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍上涨，沪期镍主力月2602合约开盘报125790元/吨，盘中最高报 127980元/吨，最低价报125580元/吨，收盘报126750元/吨，上涨1640元/吨，涨幅为1.31%，沪镍主力月 2602主力合约成交量616999手。 今日现货交投：现货市场午间表现呈现"有价无市"的拉锯格局。交投氛围虽较昨日略有改善，但整体仍 显清淡，形成"价格虚火，成交乏力"的典型场景。在期货反弹带动下，部分贸易商进行试探性提价，然 而下游企业采购积极性并未被有效激发，普遍以"按需、小量、低价"为原则，致使成交多集中于中低价 格区间，高价资源"有价无市"，市场未获放量支撑，买卖双方博弈暗藏。 综合来看，短期反弹行情大概率延续，但上行空间受限，预计短期内镍价或偏强运行； 据长江有色属网统计：12月26日ccmn长江综合1#镍价127900元/吨-133900元/吨，均价报130900元/吨， 较前一日价格上涨3600元 ，长江现货1#镍报128800元/吨-134400元/吨，均价报131600元/吨，较前一日 价格上涨4250，广东现货镍报133600元/吨-134000元/吨，均价报1338 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - The Shanghai silver futures main contract surged over 5%, closing at 18,131 yuan per kilogram, while international spot silver opened at a record high of $73.7 per ounce, marking a significant increase [1] - Year-to-date, the spot silver price has risen nearly 150%, with a key breakout in August signaling a bullish trend, supported by momentum indicators reaching their highest levels since 2011 [3] - The ongoing AI boom is expected to sustain demand for silver in the electronics sector, with a positive outlook for the silver market through 2026 [3] Group 2: Fund Management and Investment Strategies - The Guotai Asset Management announced a limit on daily subscriptions for its silver fund to 100 yuan starting December 29, down from a previous limit of 500 yuan [6] - The fund's secondary market price has significantly exceeded its net asset value, with a premium reaching nearly 70%, prompting concerns about potential losses for investors [10] - The recent surge in the Guotai silver fund's price has attracted attention on social media, leading to discussions about arbitrage opportunities [12] Group 3: Nickel Market Developments - Indonesia is reportedly considering a significant reduction of 34% in its nickel production quota for 2026, which could indicate a major shift in resource management and market regulation [13] - The Shanghai nickel futures experienced volatility, with a decline of 1.22% in the main contract, influenced by market sentiment and profit-taking [14] - Analysts suggest that the nickel market remains oversupplied globally, and future price movements will depend on Indonesia's policy decisions and production cost changes [15]

南华期货镍&不锈钢2026年度展望 ——供需结构调整周期，随势而动 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 一、核心观点 1.1核心观点 2025 年镍市场整体走势先扬后抑，上半年整体受政策以及宏观面带动偏多，印尼年内出台一系列加工规范化 新规，并且出台HMA基准价均带来小幅情绪上移，此外年内中美关系走势进一步扰动风险管理偏好。需求端 的强弱变化作为底部中枢影响着价格的震荡区间，供给端的印尼冶炼与湿法中间品项目继续按节奏释放，整 体供应环境保持稳定，期间虽有政策讨论诸如配额、成本机制调整以及项目审查等，但这些变化并未显著改 变实际产量。由于此前多批新增产能已陆续进入成熟运行区间，市场更关心的并非单次政策表态，而是可能 真正影响实物流向的措施；然而截至年底，供给端并未出现足以扭转格局的变化，使得价格重心仍由需求主 导。 需求端边际增量有限持续压制上方空间，年中新能源强势反内卷浪潮以及出口稳定性波动均在一定程度上引 领了波段性调整。镍元素过剩的局面长期延续也受制于于需求端无法寻求新的突破；新能源领域在固态电池 尚未市场化之前，磷酸铁锂不 ...