Group 1 - The global situation is increasingly complex, with major powers pulling in different directions, leaving smaller countries like India and Turkey in difficult positions [1] - India faces economic challenges due to increased tariffs from the US on key exports, particularly textiles and pharmaceuticals, which are critical to its economy [3] - The relationship between India and Pakistan remains tense, with border conflicts exacerbating India's economic woes and leading to a rising unemployment rate of 14% [3] - Turkey's geopolitical position is precarious, as it attempts to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict while facing internal challenges such as high inflation and the aftermath of a recent earthquake [5] - Japan's defense budget has reached a record 9 trillion yen (approximately 58 billion USD) in response to perceived threats from China, indicating a shift towards militarization [7] - Germany's economy is severely impacted by the loss of cheap Russian gas, with GDP growth projected at only 0.2% in 2025, leading to industrial decline and rising unemployment [9] Group 2 - The underlying risks for these countries stem from their inability to find a stable position amid great power competition, with India and Turkey struggling to maintain neutrality [11] - Japan's increased military spending and strategic reforms are seen as direct responses to threats from China, raising concerns about potential military conflict [7][11] - Germany's energy crisis and manufacturing exodus highlight its vulnerability in the current geopolitical landscape, affecting not only its economy but also the stability of the EU [9][11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant performance of the Yongying Technology Select A fund, which achieved a total return of over 233% in 2025, making it the annual champion among public funds [1][3] - A notable market phenomenon is observed where top-performing funds and underperforming funds experienced similar maximum drawdowns of around 30%, yet their net value performances diverged significantly [2][3] Fund Performance - Yongying Technology Select A fund recorded a total return of 233.29% with a maximum drawdown of -27.04% [1] - Other top-performing funds include Zhonghang Opportunity Navigator A with a return of 168.92% and a maximum drawdown of -21.63%, and Hengyue Advantage Select A with a return of 147.85% and a maximum drawdown of -32.44% [1][3] Drawdown Analysis - The article emphasizes that the nature of drawdowns and the ability to recover are more critical than the drawdown itself in determining long-term returns [2][4] - High-performing funds often faced drawdowns due to temporary market adjustments in sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing, which are characterized as "effective drawdowns" [5] - Conversely, underperforming funds experienced drawdowns linked to weak fundamentals and policy changes, leading to "ineffective drawdowns" that hinder recovery [5] Risk Assessment - Traditional risk metrics such as volatility and maximum drawdown are deemed less effective in today's highly differentiated market [6] - The article suggests that investors should analyze the reasons behind drawdowns rather than focusing solely on the percentage decline in net value [6][7] - Investors are encouraged to understand the type of risk they are taking, whether it is a "growth volatility" or a "value trap," and to consider the fund manager's risk management capabilities [7]

焦作市工商联秉持"大道至简、实干为要"的工作理念，紧扣"三会三联三服务"工作机制中联络对接、服 务发展的关键要点，全力推动高水平对内对外开放，促使交流合作走上常态化轨道，为区域经济发展注 入源源不断的新活力。 焦作市把推动民营经济高质量发展作为构建现代化产业体系的重要支撑，累计培育国家级制造业单项冠 军企业4家、专精特新"小巨人"企业30家、专精特新中小企业308家、创新型中小企业753家。如今，焦 作市民营经济正以创新为翼、以转型为径，在高质量发展的赛道上加速腾飞。 为助力民营经济发展壮大，促进民营经济人士健康成长，焦作市工商联深入贯彻党中央及省委、市委决 策部署，以"三会三联三服务"工作机制为抓手，在思想政治引领、服务高质量发展、优化营商环境、深 化对外合作和加强自身建设等多个方面精准发力、务实创新，为助力全市民营经济高质量发展交出了一 份亮眼答卷。 "三会三联三服务"工作机制激活市场新动能 （来源：中华工商时报） 转自：中华工商时报 近年来，河南省焦作市民营经济蓬勃发展，呈现链式、集群化的良好态势。在高端制造领域，龙佰集团 连续7年入围中国制造业民营企业500强，多氟多等8家企业入选2024年省制造业头 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1, with a long - position overweight strategy for the stock index. The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026 but could have a rebound after the Spring Festival, with a short - position hedge before the Spring Festival and a long - position underweight after. Commodities should be structurally allocated, with long - position overweight on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities, long - position standard allocation (timing) on black building materials and agricultural products, and short - position standard allocation on crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity Market**: In December 2025, the A - share market oscillated upward, switching back to the growth - oriented style. Most primary industry indices rose, with national defense, communications, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and machinery leading the monthly gains [8][10]. - **Bond Market**: The performance of short - and long - term bonds diverged. Short - term Treasury yields declined while long - term yields increased, and the Treasury term spread widened significantly. By December 31, 2025, the 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields dropped to 1.3605% and 1.3830% respectively, while the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rose to 1.8473% and 2.2674% [13]. - **Commodities**: The prices of domestic commodity futures were differentiated, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 28, 2025, the precious metals index soared 14.38%, the metal index rose 6.18%, the industrial products index increased 1.44%, and the agricultural products index slightly declined 0.59% [17]. 2. Outlook and Analysis of Major Asset Classes - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: Abroad, the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Fed may decrease. Domestically, the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, but a reserve requirement ratio cut is still expected [19][28]. - **Equity Assets**: In the short - to - medium term, the cross - year market has started, and the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1 2026. In the long - term, the policy and liquidity environment in 2026 are favorable to the market [31][32]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026, with the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield before the Spring Festival likely between 1.90% - 1.95%. After the Spring Festival, there may be an oversold rebound opportunity [35][36]. - **Commodities**: The differentiation pattern of commodities will continue. Crude oil may remain weak after a short - term rebound. Industrial metals may face supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural product prices may fluctuate more due to various factors. Precious metals may experience significant short - term fluctuations but maintain an upward long - term trend [37][38]. 3. Allocation Strategies for Major Asset Classes - **Domestic Stock Index**: In 2026, the equity market should be strategically allocated, with a long - position overweight in January. Focus on industries such as the AI industry chain, leading companies going global, industries with improved supply - demand relationships, and the industrialization of cutting - edge technologies [40]. - **Commodities**: Increase the weight of commodities in the asset allocation. Overweight precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities; standard - allocate black building materials and agricultural products (timing); and short - allocate crude oil [41][42]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Hedge with short positions before the Spring Festival and underweight long positions after the Spring Festival. The bond market will remain volatile in 2026 and should be under - allocated [43].

Group 1 - The core diplomatic visit of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to China at the beginning of the year signifies the importance of developing Sino-Korean relations and sends a positive signal to the international community about the commitment to a healthy and stable bilateral relationship [1][3] - The bilateral trade volume between China and South Korea is projected to reach $328.08 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with China being South Korea's largest trading partner for 21 consecutive years [4] - The areas of cooperation between China and South Korea have expanded from traditional manufacturing to emerging sectors such as high-end manufacturing, cross-border e-commerce, and digital economy, highlighting the complementary advantages of both countries [4] Group 2 - In 2024, the number of people-to-people exchanges between China and South Korea is expected to reach 7.725 million, with 2.595 million South Koreans visiting China and 5.13 million Chinese residents traveling to South Korea, facilitated by over 1,000 regular flights each week [6] - Cultural exchanges have deepened, with the popularity of Korean cosmetics and films in China and the success of Chinese smart appliances in the South Korean market, indicating a significant cultural influence between the two nations [6][8] - Heartwarming stories of mutual assistance between the two peoples, such as a Chinese driver protecting a South Korean tourist and a South Korean coast guard officer sacrificing his life to save a Chinese citizen, illustrate the growing closeness and goodwill between the two nations [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing interest of domestic and foreign investors in Chinese assets, with expectations for emerging markets to benefit from a "weak dollar environment" and a desire for broader diversification in global investment portfolios [2][3] - Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, Deng Zhijie, predicts that after a valuation recovery in 2025, the Chinese capital market is expected to continue performing positively in 2026, driven by structural opportunities in sectors like new energy, photovoltaics, robotics, automation, and high-end manufacturing [2][3][4] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified investment portfolio to reduce risk and enhance returns, especially in the context of ongoing global market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4] Group 2 - In 2025, many investors began to shift their focus from high-valued developed markets to lower-valued emerging markets, with China showing strong performance compared to expectations, while India's market underperformed [4][5] - The article notes that the investment landscape has been significantly influenced by AI and high-tech sectors, which are expected to continue their upward trend into 2026, with a strong belief in the sustainability of AI investments compared to the tech bubble of the early 2000s [5][11] - The article discusses the resilience of emerging markets, emphasizing the need for robust domestic economic policies to support consumption and growth, particularly in countries like India and China [7][8] Group 3 - There is a notable increase in foreign investment interest in Chinese assets, driven by the realization of the volatility associated with concentrated investments in U.S. assets, leading to a desire for diversification [8][9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a steady expansion of institutional openness in China, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the Chinese market for foreign investors through improved access and investment opportunities [9][10] - The article highlights the ongoing importance of gold as a safe-haven asset, with expectations for its price to continue rising due to persistent geopolitical uncertainties and central banks reducing their dollar holdings in favor of gold [10][11] Group 4 - The AI industry and related sectors, as well as the banking sector, are identified as key areas of focus for investors in 2026, with expectations of benefiting from economic growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [11][12][13] - The banking sector is anticipated to perform well due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including higher long-term bond yields and the potential for interest rate cuts, which could support bank profitability [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is poised for a bull market driven by five key factors, which have not yet been fully reflected in market valuations, suggesting potential for significant growth in the coming years [3][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Reduction - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds is at 1.9%, while the average dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is 2.5%, surpassing long-term government bonds [4][13]. - Compared to the U.S. market, where the S&P 500 index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 and a dividend yield of 1.2%, Chinese stocks offer better value with lower valuations and higher yields [4][13]. Group 2: Capital Overflow - The real estate market, which previously attracted significant investment, has lost its capacity to absorb funds as property prices have peaked and declined [5][14]. - There is a substantial amount of excess savings, estimated at 50 trillion, with household deposits reaching 162 trillion, creating a need for alternative investment channels, primarily the stock market [5][14]. - The CSI 300 index has seen a consistent increase of around 15% over the past two years, improving investor sentiment and encouraging more capital inflow into the stock market [5][14]. Group 3: Economic Driver - The decline in real estate prices has led to a significant reduction in household wealth, estimated to be over 100 trillion, negatively impacting consumer confidence and spending [6][15]. - The government has emphasized the importance of stabilizing and activating the capital market as a key measure to restore consumer confidence through wealth effects [6][15]. Group 4: Profit Support - After nine consecutive quarters of negative growth, non-financial listed companies are expected to return to positive profit growth in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 14% for the MSCI China index in 2026, driven by sectors like internet platforms and high-end manufacturing [7][16]. - The recovery in corporate profits is seen as a confirmation of economic resilience, providing fundamental support for a gradual bull market in stocks [7][16]. Group 5: Global Landscape - The competitive dynamics between China and the U.S. have shifted, with China taking a more proactive stance in trade disputes, leading to a change in the balance of power [8][17]. - As global investors reassess the competitive landscape, there is an anticipated increase in long-term investment demand for Chinese assets, which is expected to be sustained over time [8][17]. - In a strong market environment, investment strategies should prioritize high-growth, technology, and small-cap stocks, while value stocks can serve as stable long-term holdings [8][17].

2025年，民营科创上市公司表现活跃，民营上市公司整体市值增长了37.0%，占A股市值的比重从年初的33.6%增长 至37.5%。 上市公司在价值提升、股东回报、信息披露等方面的主动作为意识增强。截至12月31日收盘，2025年A股公司派现 总金额高达2.6万亿元，也创下历史新高。 机构投资者更加关注前沿技术、先进制造和未来产业，"长钱长投"新生态下更多资本流向硬科技，促进"战略引领 ——产业创新——市值提升——资本反哺"的良性循环，推动新质生产力高质量发展。 2025年湖北A股上市公司也取得了亮眼成绩。根据Wind统计，2025年湖北A股上市公司总市值从年初约1.416万亿元 增长至12月31日的约1.996万亿元，涨幅约41%。 从股价涨幅来看，到2025年底19家上市公司股价翻番，52家上市公司市值超100亿元。其中，长飞光纤涨幅为 221.45%，总市值从216.15亿元跃升至963.35亿元。华工科技市值一度破1000亿。 湖北日报讯（记者王艳华）1月5日，中国上市公司协会发布2025年A股上市公司市值表现报告。2025年新增上市公 司116家，年底A股上市公司共5469家，总市值123万亿元；20 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年经济的增长动能与复苏质量，在很大程度上取决于存量问题的解决进度与实效 文|《财经》记者 孙颖妮 编辑 | 王延春 2025年底中央经济工作会议闭幕后，各部委近期陆续列出2026年任务清单，更多增量政策即将出台。同 时，各地政府部门也陆续召开经济工作会议，分析当前形势，部署2026年经济任务。 2026年，是"十五五"规划的开局之年，在这一关键节点，做好经济工作对稳增长、提振市场信心至关重 要。2026年中国经济预计在政策支持和结构转型、深度改革下稳步增长，多位专家预测，增速可能在 4.5%-5%左右，重点在于扩大内需，通过创新驱动和绿色发展培育新动能，同时稳定房地产市场与化解 地方债务，保持财政和货币政策的积极支持。 过去的2025年，中国经济在中美贸易摩擦等内外复杂因素影响下抗住压力，彰显韧性，亮点纷呈。以科 技创新为核心驱动力的新质生产力加速形成，科技创新多点突破，人工智能大模型、人形机器人、生物 创新药等前沿领域取得重要进展，驱动经济提质增效。2025年1月-11月，规模以上高技术制造业增加值 同比增长9.2%，智能消费 ...

并分析了美元贬值历程还没有结束， 以美元为代表的法币体系对战略资产的渐进贬值仍将延续，人民币升值对于市场、资金各方面的影响。 邢自强指出，2026年全球经济面临三个"进行时"的深化： 全球地缘政治东稳西荡产生的深远影响，对美元去魅的再深化还处于进行时， 对中国产业实力的再认知也处于进行时， 所以，无论是跟 AI 相关的软硬件应用、国产算力替代，还是一些先进制造业的继续升级和出海，相信 在2026年会继续得到认可。 三，是对打破通缩的再探索还处于进行时， 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：六里投资报 1月5日，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强，在2026开年的第一场闭门策略会中，总结了宏观和市场 层面的三个"进行时"正在持续深化； 对投资中国资产都没有产生利空的变化，相对来讲都是中性偏利好的。 她认为，人民币相对于美元走强，对于海外投资人投资中国股市是完完全全的利好， 中国的可投资性，在所有其他因子变量保持不变的话，反而是向上走的， 同时叠加人民币升值态势，在接下来的几个月里面，应该可以预见到外资对中国股票资产的持续配置。 投资报（liulishidian）整理精选 ...