星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 最近，作为全球第三大运动鞋零售商、两度入选《财富》500强的斯凯奇（SKECHERS），其退市消息于2025年5 月空降微博热搜，引发市场震动。 这家凭借 "平价舒适" 定 位在全球鞋类市场占据一席之地的巨头，在上市二十余年后选择私有化的背后，似乎 剑指"美国关税政策"。 来源： 天猫 旗舰店 3G溢价收购 2025年4月25日，斯凯奇发布的一季度财报成为退市导火索： 中国市场销售额同比下滑16%，全球营业利润下降 11.3%，创下新的季度营销纪录，同时，该公司取消了今年的业绩指引，原因是美国的全球贸易战颠覆了企业的 计划。 公司撤回全年业绩指引，斯凯奇在一份声明中称："由于全球贸易政策带来的宏观经济不确定性，公司目前不提供 财务指导，并撤回我们在2025年2月6日发布的2025年年度指引。" 同时，斯凯奇在SEC文件中明确警示，全球贸易政策变动对其业务构成重大风险。 斯凯奇称，美国市场占斯凯奇 全球销售额的38%，但其进口产品超六成来自中国、越南等亚洲国家。关税政策导致采购成本大幅攀升，挤压利 润率。 斯凯奇表示，关税推高终端价格，削弱价格竞争力，可能会减少消费者 ...

最近，作为全球第三大运动鞋零售商、两度入选《财富》500强的斯凯奇（SKECHERS），其退市消息于2025年5月空降微博热搜，引发市场 震动。 2025年4月25日，斯凯奇发布的一季度财报成为退市导火索：中国市场销售额同比下滑16%，全球营业利润下降11.3%，创下新的季度营销 纪录，同时，该公司取消了今年的业绩指引，原因是美国的全球贸易战颠覆了企业的计划。 公司撤回全年业绩指引，斯凯奇在一份声明中称："由于全球贸易政策带来的宏观经济不确定性，公司目前不提供财务指导，并撤回我们在 2025年2月6日发布的2025年年度指引。" 同时，斯凯奇在SEC文件中明确警示，全球贸易政策变动对其业务构成重大风险。斯凯奇称，美国市场占斯凯奇全球销售额的38%，但其进 口产品超六成来自中国、越南等亚洲国家。关税政策导致采购成本大幅攀升，挤压利润率。 斯凯奇表示，关税推高终端价格，削弱价格竞争力，可能会减少消费者需求并影响销量。财报显示，2025年一季度，斯凯奇美国市场增速 (6.9%)已落后于国际市场(7.2%)。 4月29日，斯凯奇联合NIKE（耐克）、ADIDAS（阿迪达斯）等76家美国鞋企向白宫联名致信，要求豁免 " ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumption industry in China has undergone significant changes and innovations over the past few years, leading to a unique economic structure that balances both consumption and production. The evolution of consumer demand, product innovation, and management innovation is driven by factors such as demand stratification, technological iteration, the rise of domestic brands, and emotional value needs [1][3]. Macro Observations - The "three-phase overlap" in China will ultimately create a unique economy that emphasizes both consumption and production. Changes in population dynamics, such as aging and smaller family units, influence different consumption categories [5][6]. - By the end of 2023, household consumption expenditure is expected to account for less than 40% of GDP, but this trend is on the rise due to a decrease in the weight of real estate in household asset allocation [6][8]. - China's high savings rate has seen household savings increase from over 90 trillion to nearly 160 trillion in the past five years, improving the overall asset-liability structure and cash flow of households [8]. - The structural changes in population demographics, particularly the rise of Generation Z as a consumer force, are significantly impacting demand structures and consumption patterns [8][9]. - The unique structure of the Chinese market, being both the largest producer and the second-largest consumer, allows for distinctive business model evolution, characterized by integrated commercial models that combine multiple brands and products [9][10]. Technological Progress and Management Innovation - Technological advancements are driving the integration of business models and management innovations, allowing for rapid response and product iteration in the consumer services sector [10][12]. - The digital capabilities of companies in China enable them to analyze consumer behavior data effectively, leading to optimized operations and improved profitability [12][13]. - Over time, technological progress will amplify differences in corporate capabilities and accelerate the differentiation among companies within the same industry [13]. Industry Observations and Case Studies - Consumption trends in China reflect a coexistence of upgrading, downgrading, and stratification, with different consumer segments experiencing varying trends [15][16]. - International brands are losing their allure in China, while domestic brands are gaining market share in sectors like cosmetics and durable goods due to improved product quality and consumer perception [18][19]. - The rise of domestic brands in high-end markets, such as automobiles, indicates a shift in consumer preferences and a growing confidence in local products [19]. - The industrialization of IP (intellectual property) in China is supported by a strong talent pool in software engineering and design, leading to significant advancements in various sectors [20][21]. - The penetration and concentration of the chain service industry in China are expected to increase, with the current penetration rate in the hotel industry being only around 30%, significantly lower than in developed countries [22][23]. Conclusion - Despite recent challenges in the consumption industry, there are abundant investment opportunities across various segments as the economy gradually recovers and new consumption patterns emerge. China is poised to become a unique market that balances manufacturing and consumption, with significant potential for domestic brands to expand both locally and internationally [24].

Group 1 - The core principle of evaluating companies in the consumer sector is to focus on the quality of revenue growth rather than just the revenue figures themselves. Companies that achieve growth through discounts may damage their brand value over time, while those with stable gross margins indicate strong pricing power and brand loyalty [3][4] - Cash flow is emphasized as a critical indicator of a company's financial health. A company that consistently generates operating cash flow that covers net profit over three years is seen as financially robust, especially in the fast-moving consumer goods sector where quick cash turnover is essential [3][4] - Inventory turnover rate is highlighted as a key metric. Companies with improving inventory turnover rates demonstrate effective sales and supply chain management. High inventory levels can lead to markdowns and losses, as seen in a case where a fast-moving consumer goods company faced significant write-downs due to poor inventory management during the pandemic [4] Group 2 - The investment strategy for consumer stocks should follow a three-step approach: first, filter for financially sound companies using financial reports; second, conduct on-the-ground research to assess product sales; and third, monitor the strategic direction of management. This comprehensive approach helps avoid pitfalls, as illustrated by a case where a company with strong financials was ultimately disregarded due to logistical issues [4][5] - The "Three Good Principles" for investing in consumer stocks are established: good products, good turnover, and good cash flow. Companies that can consistently increase market share, optimize gross margins, and manage inventory risks are considered the true leaders in the consumer sector [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter sales reached $355 million, reflecting a 6.5% increase year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.23, aligning with expectations [7][24] - Gross margin improved by 200 basis points sequentially to 30.9%, while adjusted gross margin decreased to 30.9% from 32.3% year-over-year due to a shift in product mix [7][25] - Net loss for the quarter was $259.7 million, or negative $6.23 per diluted share, primarily due to a goodwill impairment charge [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Powered Vehicles Group (PVG), net sales increased by 3.4% to $122.1 million, driven by motorcycle business growth [12] - The Aftermarket Applications Group (AAG) saw net sales rise by 9.9% to $111.9 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 15.2% [15] - Specialty Sports Group (SSG) reported a 6.6% increase in net sales to $121 million, although adjusted EBITDA margins decreased to 19.3% due to seasonality and investments in product engineering [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The automotive sector is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in the premium truck category, despite broader market caution [13] - The motorcycle business is experiencing growth, offsetting declines in traditional powersports product lines [12][15] - The company is leveraging international growth opportunities, particularly in Asia, to mitigate domestic market challenges [53] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational efficiency, innovation, and strategic growth initiatives to drive long-term shareholder value [22][32] - Key initiatives include simplifying and consolidating manufacturing footprint, optimizing product portfolio, and enhancing working capital management [9][10] - The company aims to achieve $25 million in cost savings through various strategic actions throughout 2025 [11][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautious about the broader market environment but is optimistic about sequential margin improvements and top-line growth across segments [21][32] - The company is continuously analyzing tariff impacts and implementing mitigation strategies, including cost reductions and price adjustments [22][31] - Despite uncertainties, management reaffirms full-year guidance for 2025, anticipating continued growth and margin improvement [29][30] Other Important Information - The company completed the closure of one of its Taiwan facilities, which is expected to yield cost benefits starting in Q2 [9][18] - The company is actively managing inventory levels to support demand and prepare for potential tariff impacts [27][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand from bicycle OEM partners regarding tariffs - Management noted a spectrum of responses from OEM customers, with no significant demand reduction observed due to tariffs [38][39] Question: Key drivers of growth in the upfitting business - Growth is attributed to better product execution, improved dealer relationships, and a favorable product mix [41][42] Question: Quality of inventory and potential for cash generation - Management emphasized a strategic approach to inventory builds, focusing on high-demand aftermarket products [43][44] Question: Updates on international opportunities - The company is expanding its international relationships, particularly in Asia, to diversify its market presence [53] Question: Impact of tariffs on supply chain and consumer demand - Management discussed various strategies to mitigate tariff impacts, including commodity price adjustments and insourcing [64][66] Question: Did the company see any pull-forward in demand due to tariffs? - Management indicated minimal pull-forward in demand, with some product launches influencing sales [70][71] Question: Insights on the performance of the lower-priced fork in the market - The lower-priced fork has expanded market share and is performing well [105]

Core Viewpoint - Norrøna, a renowned Norwegian outdoor brand, is entering the Chinese market through a partnership with the retail operator Tmall, aiming to capitalize on the rapid growth of the high-end outdoor segment in China [1][2]. Group 1: Norrøna's Market Entry - Norrøna has chosen Tmall as its exclusive partner in China, rather than local giants like Anta or Li Ning, indicating a strategic shift in its market approach [1]. - The brand is known for its high-quality outdoor gear, with its waterproof jackets priced between $349 and $1,199 (approximately RMB 2,520 to RMB 8,663) [2]. - Norrøna's product line includes various outdoor activities such as skiing, hiking, and mountain biking, showcasing its extensive market presence [2]. Group 2: Tmall's Strategic Shift - Tmall is seeking to diversify its revenue streams, as Nike and Adidas accounted for 87% of its revenue in the first half of the 2024/2025 fiscal year [1][7]. - The partnership with Norrøna is part of Tmall's strategy to enhance its brand portfolio in the professional outdoor segment, responding to the growing demand for specialized outdoor equipment [5][11]. - Tmall plans to implement a new retail logic of "full-domain operation + precise reach" to effectively penetrate the market and engage with professional sports communities [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Demand - The high-end outdoor market in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing consumer demand for specialized, functional, and personalized outdoor gear [11]. - Tmall aims to continue expanding its offerings in outdoor and running segments, reflecting a broader trend in the retail industry towards specialization and refined operational capabilities [11]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with established brands like Arc'teryx and The North Face, as well as emerging brands, posing challenges for Tmall's market entry strategy [5][11].

策 略 研 究 华福证券 银发经济娱乐消费新风潮 团队成员 投资要点： 数字参与深化：银发经济推动消费市场多元发展 策 随着社会的发展与老龄化进程的加剧，老年群体的消费行为和消费市 场正在发生深刻的变化,50 岁以上的中老年人群体已经逐步融入数字化生 活，成为不可忽视的消费力量。根据中国互联网络信息中心（CNNIC）的 第 55 次《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》，截至 2024 年 12 月，50 岁 及以上群体占比达到 34.1%，较上年同期增长 1.6 个百分点。 略 点 评 近年来，年轻人常用的 APP，也逐渐成为银发族群体日常使用的应用。 据电通创意的《2025 银发族趋势观察》，在银发人群中，快手、抖音和网 易新闻是使用时长最长的三大应用。同时，老年人群体也体现了强烈的参 与感，61%的银发人群会将自己喜欢的短视频分享给亲朋好友，涵盖的内 容包括养生、新闻时事等。这一趋势不仅推动了老年人群体的数字化转型， 也为相关企业在这一市场的布局提供了机会。老年人群体的互联网使用习 惯正在不断深入，而这一趋势势必将推动数字广告、社交电商、在线教育、 短视频等领域的蓬勃发展。 娱乐消费升级：银发经济驱动文娱产业 ...

Core Insights - Adidas has become a focal point in the marathon community following the 2025 London Marathon, where its sponsored athletes achieved remarkable victories and set new records [1][3][5]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The 2025 London Marathon featured intense competition, with Adidas-sponsored athlete Sebastian Sawe winning the men's race with a time of 2:02:27, marking his first World Marathon Major victory [1][3]. - Ethiopian athlete Tigist Assefa, also sponsored by Adidas, won the women's race with a record-breaking time of 2:15:50, improving the previous women's marathon record by over 3 minutes [1][3][5]. - The Adidas ADIZERO 0 series was highlighted as a key factor in these record-breaking performances, reinforcing the brand's commitment to innovation in athletic footwear [6]. Group 2: Athlete Performances - Sawe's performance was notable as he recorded a time of 2:02:05 in his debut marathon, showcasing his potential as a rising star in the sport [3][5]. - Assefa's victory was characterized by a decisive acceleration at the 35-kilometer mark, allowing her to secure the win and set a new world record [3][5]. - Both athletes utilized the latest models from the Adidas ADIZERO line, which has been instrumental in their success [6]. Group 3: Brand Positioning - Adidas continues to emphasize its philosophy of providing the best for athletes, as demonstrated by the success of the ADIZERO 0 series, which has been pivotal in winning numerous championships in athletics and road racing [6]. - The brand's ongoing innovation in running shoe technology is evident with the introduction of new models like ADIZERO ADIOS PRO 4 and ADIZERO BOSTON 13, further solidifying its leadership in the running shoe market [6].

（文/霍东阳 编辑/张广凯） 5月5日，"美国老头乐"斯凯奇突然宣布被巴西私募巨头 3G Capital 收购。斯凯奇称，双方的企业长期发 展愿景高度一致，预计将于今年第三季度完成交易，届时斯凯奇将从纽交所摘牌。 据悉，3G Capital 成立于2004年，被称为是私募股权领域的"颠覆者"，其通过激进重组和行业整合创造 了显著资本回报，曾主导百威英博并购、让汉堡王扭亏为盈、操刀卡夫亨氏世纪合并。沉寂多年的3G Capital 再次出手选中了斯凯奇。 华尔街见闻报道称，3G Capital 给斯凯奇股东提供了两种选择：每股63美元的全现金收购，或每股57美 元加上私有化母公司的部分股权。据公告，3G Capital最终选择第一种方式，斥资94.2亿美元收购了斯 凯奇，每股价格较该公司上周五收盘时溢价28%。 有业内人士指出，溢价收购的背后是 3G Capital 对斯凯奇长期增长前景的信心。同时，有媒体报道称， 对于斯凯奇，一向偏好利用资本手段的 3G Capital 或许会更专注于公司内部成长性。 目前看来，收购同样不影响斯凯奇现有的治理结构，公司将继续由首席执行官 Robert Greenberg 、总裁 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance growth has turned positive, with technology and certain cyclical sectors showing strong results, particularly in emerging technologies and the "two new" sectors driving growth in automotive, home appliances, and engineering machinery [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth of the entire A-share non-financial sector improved to +4.7% year-on-year, driven by a significant reduction in expense ratios and stabilization of gross margins [2][4] - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, continues to show strong growth, while cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals also reported high growth rates [3][4] Group 2 - The real estate sector has seen some financial indicators improve, with a notable increase in dividend yields, indicating potential investment value [6][7] - In 2024, the revenue growth of key property companies was +4.2%, while profits continued to decline by -28.3%, highlighting a divergence in performance among different companies [7][8] - The average dividend yield for key property companies reached 5.04%, with three companies exceeding 10% [7][9] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector experienced a slowdown, with overall revenue growth of +2% and net profit growth of +4% in 2024, while Q1 2025 showed minimal growth [10][11] - The liquor segment remains stable, with high-end brands showing strong performance, while the consumer goods segment is seeing structural growth opportunities, particularly in snacks and beverages [11][12] - The dairy segment faced challenges, with a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [12][13] Group 4 - The beauty and personal care sector reported a revenue increase of 13% and a slight net profit increase of 0.2% in 2024, with individual segments like personal care showing significant growth [14][15] - The medical aesthetics segment is led by collagen products, while the cosmetics segment showed mixed performance, particularly in the Hong Kong market [15][16] - The sector is expected to benefit from product innovation and the rise of domestic brands, with a focus on long-term growth potential [14][16] Group 5 - The apparel and luxury goods sectors are facing mixed performance, with overseas sports brands showing strong revenue growth while luxury brands are under pressure [18][19] - The U.S. apparel retail market grew by 2.6% in 2024, with outdoor and high-end sports segments performing well [18][19] - The luxury goods sector is cautious about 2025, with many brands indicating limited price increases due to rising costs rather than for revenue generation [21][22] Group 6 - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures in advanced processes, with significant growth projected for 2025 [30][31] - The semiconductor equipment sector reported a revenue increase of 27.01% in 2024, while the materials sector also showed robust growth [31][32] - The valuation of the semiconductor sector remains reasonable, with a focus on growth potential and the performance of leading companies [33] Group 7 - The optical industry is experiencing varied performance, with strong growth in the Apple supply chain while Android-related products face challenges [35][36] - Companies like Crystal Optoelectronics and Lantech Optical reported significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by increased demand for specific products [35][36] - The automotive optical segment showed stable performance, with some companies reporting growth despite seasonal challenges [36] Group 8 - The computer industry is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in the number of companies reporting positive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 [38][39] - The overall revenue for the computer sector in 2024 was 12,693.99 billion, with a notable recovery in Q1 2025 [39][40] - Large-cap companies are performing more steadily compared to mid and small-cap companies, with AI and energy IT sectors showing significant recovery [40][41]