有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，在上周美联储宣布降息后的首次公开演讲中，美联储主 | | | | | | | | | 席鲍威尔表示，利率面临通胀上行和就业下行的两面风险，重申关税预期是一次性推 | | | | | | | | | 升价格，要确保关税不会持续影响，但未暗示下月会否支持降息；不过鲍威尔警告美股 | | | | | | | | | 估值太高，警示风险。国内方面，昨日发布会央行行长表示不涉及短期政策的调整，当 | | | | | | | | 铜 | 前中国货币政策立场是支持性的，实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面，LME | | | | | | 库存下 | | | | 吨 | 降 400 吨至 144975 吨；Comex 库存增加 91 吨至 288837 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 2166 | | | | | | | | | | 至 27727 吨；BC 铜下降 25 吨至 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/24 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/17 70 1420 81851 33291 -247.87 198.41 55.0 56.0 -71.13 149775 14450 2025/09/18 80 1131 81851 32469 -357.73 202.07 56.0 58.0 -71.09 148875 13450 2025/09/19 80 1121 105814 31838 -331.21 138.59 57.0 59.0 -64.90 147650 14400 2025/09/22 70 1351 105814 29893 -157.47 153.75 58.0 59.0 -72.44 145375 12475 2025/09/23 55 1248 105814 27727 -118.34 228.24 58.0 59.0 -73.11 144975 11875 变化 -1 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed's hawkish stance in the FOMC meeting puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, and with the approaching holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, the progress of rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. For aluminum, the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious, but as prices fall and the National Day holiday approaches, downstream consumption is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below and may repair upwards in the short term [7]. - For lead, on the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and raw material shortages suppress primary smelting operations. On the secondary side, scrap prices decline, and secondary smelting profits are repaired, with a slight improvement in operations. Downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years, and after the battery inventory pressure eases, downstream purchases increase slightly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low Shanghai - London ratio. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, and the Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run weakly in the short term [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is approaching, the overall volume remains to be observed. Coupled with the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices may not fall in the short term and will continue to run in a volatile manner [13]. - For nickel, recently, the price of ferronickel is relatively strong, but the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will support nickel prices, and the RKAB approval in the new year also constitutes potential positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. - For lithium carbonate, on Tuesday, the commodity index was weak, and lithium prices were under pressure during the session. But it is the peak - demand season, and domestic inventory is continuously decreasing, so the spot may remain in a tight state, and lithium prices have strong support at the bottom [20]. - For alumina, the ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, and the physical inventory in Foshan is relatively low, resulting in strong support below. However, the consumer side has not improved significantly, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is low. It is expected to run in a narrow - range and volatile manner in the short term [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious yet. Coupled with the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure of cast aluminum alloy appears, and the price is under pressure above, while the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [29]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME copper fell 0.08% to $9993/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79970 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 to 144975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 28,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 55 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, the inventory decreased, with the spot premium remaining at 70 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 1800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME aluminum continued to be weak, closing down 0.34% to $2646/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20670 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 501,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory both decreased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated up. The spot in East China was at a 10 - yuan discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed by 10 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory slightly decreased to 514,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may repair upwards in the short term [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.44% to 17080 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 99,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S fell 3 to $1994/ton, and the total position was 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16975 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16900 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.09% to 21852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 250,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S fell 43 to $2870/ton, and the total position was 215,600 lots. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai zinc is expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269880 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 to 6600 tons. The average price of Shanghai spot tin ingots was 270500 yuan/ton, down 2000 yuan/ton. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State resumed slowly, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still existed. It is expected that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors is booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is still weak. In August, the tin solder output of sample enterprises increased by 7.99% month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120730 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. In the spot market, the transaction was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of ferronickel was also stable. The price of MHP coefficient increased slightly [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,660 yuan, up 0.33%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [19]. - **Strategy**: Lithium prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 75,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.93% to 2879 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position increased by 0.8 to 444,000 lots. The Shandong spot price fell 15 to 2925 yuan/ton, with a 75 - yuan premium to the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $322/ton, and the import window opened [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12890 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to run in a volatile manner in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Tuesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.22% to 20255 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.03 to 50,000 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above and supported by scrap aluminum costs [29].

Group 1 - The event "Best Practice Cases of Internal Control for Listed Companies 2025" was held in Beijing, organized by the China Listed Companies Association, where Jinmoly Group and Baotai Group's subsidiaries won awards for their internal control practices [2][4] - Internal control is a key mechanism for regulating business management activities, preventing risks, enhancing management efficiency, and ensuring the achievement of strategic goals [4] - The recognition of Jinmoly and Baotai demonstrates their outstanding performance in innovation of internal control mechanisms, practical results, and policy responses, highlighting the group's deep exploration and solid accumulation in internal control work [4][6] Group 2 - The group has achieved significant results in risk prevention, operational efficiency, and economic benefits through continuous deepening of internal control construction, providing a solid guarantee for high-quality development [6] - The award will serve as an opportunity for the group to continue adhering to compliance, targeting goals, and exploring new paths and measures for internal control construction, thereby enhancing governance and risk management capabilities [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers outlooks for individual metals: - Copper: Expected to be in a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish, suggesting short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines [6][7][8] - Aluminum: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] - Zinc: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] - Lead: Expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: Expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, with a wait - and - see approach in the medium - to long - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: Expected to be in a volatile state [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall for non - ferrous metals: Before the National Day holiday, downstream restocking is expected, and non - ferrous metals may stabilize and rebound. In the short - to medium - term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1] - For individual metals: - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions, along with the approaching peak demand season, support copper prices. However, factors such as unexpected tariff policies and weak domestic demand recovery pose risks [5][6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation remains weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. Prices are under pressure until factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions occur [6][7][8] - Aluminum: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Zinc: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Lead: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp; the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended operations; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year; on September 22, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper and copper inventory changed [5] - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions support copper prices. The approaching peak demand season increases downstream restocking willingness. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may continue to be strong [6] - Outlook: Copper may show a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6] 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On September 22, the spot price of alumina in different regions changed; an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased; the alumina warehouse receipt increased [6][7] - Logic: The fundamentals remain weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. The price is under pressure until there are factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions [6][7][8] - Outlook: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish. Consider short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [8] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On September 22, the price of SMM AOO aluminum, aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipt changed; in August, China's aluminum and its products exports decreased year - on - year; the Fed cut interest rates; an Indonesian aluminum smelter plans to be put into production [9] - Logic: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On September 22, the price of Baotai ADC12, the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and SMM AOO aluminum, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipt changed; in August, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased year - on - year; the EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports [10][11] - Logic: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Outlook: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On September 22, the spot price of zinc in different regions and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory changed; CZSPT released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement in the fourth quarter of 2025 [12] - Logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On September 22, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the price difference between primary and secondary lead, the price of SMM1 lead ingot, and lead ingot inventory changed; downstream lead - acid battery enterprises are restocking before the National Day [13][14] - Logic: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Outlook: Moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On September 22, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt decreased; the price of high - nickel pig iron is supported by cost and the peak season, but the demand is weak; some nickel - related events such as corporate acquisitions and land seizures occurred [16][17] - Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Outlook: Wide - range volatile in the short - term, wait - and - see in the medium - to long - term [17][18] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased; the spot price difference between Foshan Hongwang 304 and the stainless steel main contract, and the transaction prices of high - nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia were reported [19][22] - Logic: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term [19][22] 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On September 22, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin positions decreased, and the spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [23] - Logic: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] - Outlook: Volatile [23] 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals for monitoring (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][26][40] 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: Not detailed - Special Index: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.44% to 2510.95, the industrial products index decreased by 0.34% to 2246.26 [151] - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on September 22 was 2385.20, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.33% [153]

Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher. The divergence within the Fed and the Trump administration's interference with Fed policies may be a major market concern. Domestically, the central bank governor stated that there would be no short - term policy adjustments, and China is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. LME copper inventories decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,371 tons to 288,746 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventories decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.45 million tons. Downstream demand is weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. After the Fed's meeting, copper prices remain cautious due to potential market避险情绪 and overseas macro risks during the holiday [1]. Aluminum - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Alumina plants' continuous resumption of production increases social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production and ore shipments have decreased, causing ore inventories to decline. Although alumina is generally bearish, it has basically bottomed out. Aluminum ingots have not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. As the double festivals approach, downstream industries are in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years. Aluminum prices remain strong, scrap aluminum prices are firm, and the aluminum alloy market continues to trade at high levels [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.46% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19%. LME nickel inventories increased by 456 tons to 228,900 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons. Nickel ore prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel weekly inventories decreased significantly, and the cost support from nickel - iron prices has strengthened, but supply has also increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may remain relatively tight due to cobalt policies. The combination of macro factors and rising nickel - iron and MHP prices may slightly lift the bottom of nickel prices, but inventories remain a resistance to price increases [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 240 yuan/ton to 80,190 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 73,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 150 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME copper inventories decreased by 2,275 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,371 tons, and domestic + bonded area social inventories decreased by 0.3 million tons to 21.7 million tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 10 yuan/ton. The spot premium remained unchanged. The price of Shanxi low - grade bauxite and high - grade bauxite remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventories remained unchanged, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained at 0.0 million tons, while the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.3 million tons to 5.8 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME nickel inventories increased by 456 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 307 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 1,125 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums increased by 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of SHFE zinc increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 14.46 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.1%, and the SMM spot price increased by 2,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 1,800 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of SHFE tin decreased by 909 tons [6]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][19][20]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. Social Inventory - Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. Smelting Profit - Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper rough - smelting processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The 7 - 8 months in Q3 show a complex macro - economic situation with economic slowdown pressure and policy counter - cyclical adjustment. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started, and future policies depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed faces challenges in formulating policies, and the RMB may not have a trend appreciation in the short term [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to a lack of super - expected information and approaching holidays [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to hold some long positions and take partial profits [7]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to be stable, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is expected to be weak after a rebound, nickel and stainless steel have limited downside space, tin is expected to be volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be volatile before the holiday [10][11][14][15][17][18]. - In the black metals market, steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside, iron ore is expected to be volatile, and coal and coke are not recommended as short - positions in the black series [26][29][32]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term, LPG short - positions can be gradually closed, PX - TA can be considered for cautious long - positions, MEG should be observed in the short term, methanol should hold short - put options, PP can be considered for long - positions at low prices, PE is expected to be volatile, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by pre - holiday stocking, fuel oil follows the cost down, and asphalt is expected to be volatile and weak [36][39][45][47][50][53][54][56][57][61]. - In other markets, urea is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, glass lacks a clear trend, caustic soda's price is affected by various factors, and pulp is expected to be volatile [64][65][67]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Policy is the key variable. The economy shows a slowdown pressure, and policy counter - cyclical adjustment is in place. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed's policy challenges affect the market, and the RMB may not appreciate in the short term [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to be volatile due to a lack of information and approaching holidays [6]. - **Bond Market**: It is expected to be volatile, and long - positions can be partially held and profited [7]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: It is expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be stable and may fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply and demand [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong after a short - term correction. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [11][12]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weak after a rebound, with a supply surplus and general demand [13][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They have limited downside space due to concerns about the Indonesian nickel ore sanctions [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be volatile between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [18][19]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside due to supply, demand, and macro - policies [26]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be volatile, and the market may return to fundamentals after the policy is not as expected [29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are not recommended as short - positions in the black series, and the market is affected by downstream replenishment and policies [32]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese**: They can be considered for long - positions at low prices, with cost support and anti - involution expectations [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply and demand imbalances, although geopolitical risks provide some support [36][37]. - **LPG**: Short - positions can be gradually closed as the supply is controllable and the demand changes little [39]. - **PX - TA**: They can be considered for cautious long - positions, with supply and demand and processing fee issues [40][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It should be observed in the short term, with limited supply elasticity and expected to be volatile [43][45]. - **Methanol**: Hold short - put options as the port contradiction is difficult to solve [47]. - **PP**: It can be considered for long - positions at low prices as the profit is compressed and the device operation needs attention [50]. - **PE**: It is expected to be volatile due to weak supply and demand and low valuation [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are affected by pre - holiday stocking, and the market is expected to be volatile [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the cost down, and it is advisable to observe in the short term [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its cracking is weak, and the market is currently soft [59]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and weak, with supply growth and demand affected by weather [61]. Others - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, with supply and demand and export factors [64]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, and the market is affected by new production and exports [64]. - **Glass**: It lacks a clear trend due to high inventory and weak demand [65]. - **Caustic Soda**: Its price is affected by spot rhythm, demand, and macro - expectations [67]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be volatile, with high inventory and limited upward drive [67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, the progress of interest rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. Different metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME copper closed up 0.06% at $10,002/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons compared to last Thursday, and the spot premium in different regions showed different trends. The refined - scrap spread narrowed to 1,870 yuan/ton [3]. - **策略观点**: Although the Fed's hawkish stance puts short - term pressure on sentiment, if the interest rate cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly affected. Copper raw material supply remains tight. With the approaching of the long holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: On Monday, LME aluminum closed down 0.78% at $2,655/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE weighted contract decreased by 14,000 to 511,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 71,000 tons. Domestic mainstream area aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Aluminum bar processing fees fluctuated up, but actual transactions were average. The spot in the East China region remained at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged [4]. - **策略观点**: The downstream peak season characteristics of aluminum are not obvious, but as prices fall, aluminum bar processing fees rise again. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream consumption willingness is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below. Short - term prices may repair upwards [5]. Lead - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.10% at 17,155 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $14 to $1,997/ton. Domestic and overseas lead inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [7]. - **策略观点**: On the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has decreased again, suppressing smelting start - ups. On the secondary side, scrap prices have declined, and smelting profits have recovered, with a slight increase in start - ups. Downstream battery enterprises' start - ups are higher than in previous years, and purchases have increased slightly. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [8]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.20% at 22,092 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $6 to $2,913/ton. Domestic and overseas zinc inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 157,000 tons [9]. - **策略观点**: The domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low SHFE - LME ratio. The surplus of zinc ore has eased. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the accumulation trend, while overseas LME zinc inventory continues to decline. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector has cooled. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be weak in the short term [10]. Tin - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 272,510 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. Domestic futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons to 6,600 tons. Spot and upstream tin prices rose. Supply is tight due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and enterprise maintenance. It is expected that domestic refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. Demand in the new energy and AI sectors is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are still weak. With the arrival of the peak season, downstream consumption is expected to improve marginally [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is approaching, the quantity is still to be observed. With the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices are difficult to fall in the short term and will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [12]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products showed different trends [14]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, although nickel iron prices are strong, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long term, the Fed's easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index was 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,420 yuan, down 0.73%. In August 2025, China's carbonate lithium imports increased by 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year [18]. - **策略观点**: The commodity index fluctuated downwards, and lithium prices may continue to be under pressure. However, in the peak - demand season, domestic inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in a tight state, providing strong support for lithium prices. Both long and short funds are cautious. It is recommended to pay attention to resource supply and demand expectations. The reference range for the GFE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71,200 - 74,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: On September 22, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.64% to 2,935 yuan/ton. The position increased by 11,000 to 436,000 lots. The domestic and overseas spot prices and import profit and loss information are provided. The futures warehouse receipt increased by 0.18 tons to 152,200 tons, and the prices of bauxite remained stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Bauxite prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus situation. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's bauxite policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,910 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The prices of raw materials such as nickel iron and scrap steel showed different trends. Futures inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.51% to 987,100 tons [24]. - **策略观点**: Indonesia's policy has limited impact on stainless steel. Domestic leading steel mills have strong price - support intentions, and the physical inventory in Foshan is low, providing strong support for prices. However, consumer demand has not improved significantly, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: As of Monday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.12% to 20,300 yuan/ton. The position and trading volume decreased. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices and imported ADC12 prices decreased, and downstream purchases were on - demand. Domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **策略观点**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. With the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure is emerging, and prices are under pressure above. The support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [28].

Group 1 - The company primarily produces cathode copper, with by-products including gold, silver, and industrial sulfuric acid [2] - The company also recovers rare metals such as molybdenum, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, and rhenium [2] - The high-quality cathode copper and the recovered precious and rare metals are essential materials for downstream industries such as telecommunications, new energy batteries, and electronic components [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper announced its production plan for 2025, aiming to enhance investment value through achieving operational goals [2] Production Targets - The company plans to produce 54,600 tons of copper concentrate, 1,520,000 tons of electrolytic copper, 16 tons of gold, 680 tons of silver, and 5,364,000 tons of sulfuric acid in 2025 [2]