Core Viewpoints - The traditional sectors are experiencing weakened growth, while new momentum shows a significant recovery, necessitating attention to the effects of stable growth policies in key industries [1][7][73]. Manufacturing Sector - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved, with a rise of 0.4 percentage points to 49.8%, aligning with seasonal expectations. The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][7][73]. - The new orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a slower recovery compared to previous years. The demand structure continues to show that external demand is outperforming internal demand, with new export orders rising more significantly than domestic orders [1][13][73]. - The purchasing volume index rose by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, driven by stronger production, while the price indices for raw materials and factory output remained resilient [1][7][73]. New Momentum Industries - The PMI for new momentum industries, such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, showed significant improvement, with the equipment manufacturing PMI rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.6% and high-tech manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion zone at 51.9% [2][19][74]. - Conversely, high-energy-consuming industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments [2][19][74]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point of 50%, with the construction PMI slightly recovering by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, while the service sector PMI dropped 0.4 percentage points to 50.1% [2][24][74]. - The service sector, particularly industries closely related to consumer travel, such as dining and cultural activities, experienced a significant decline in business activity indices, falling below critical levels [2][24][74]. Future Outlook - Although traditional momentum faces downward pressure on both quantity and price, new momentum is accelerating its support for the economy. Continuous monitoring of the effects of new incremental policies is essential [3][75]. - The upcoming stable growth policies in key industries like construction materials and steel are expected to mitigate the risks associated with the downturn in infrastructure and real estate sectors [3][75].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China shows signs of improvement as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September rises to 49.8%, indicating a continuous upward trend for two consecutive months [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an overall improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index has also risen for two consecutive months, indicating accelerated expansion in overall production activities [1] - Market demand is showing improvement, with both the new orders index and new export orders index rising for two consecutive months [1] Group 2: Specific Industry Insights - The equipment manufacturing PMI reached 51.9%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating accelerated expansion and active supply-demand dynamics in the industry [1] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone, achieving the highest level this year [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - There is a continuous improvement in market expectations, with the production and business activity expectations index rising for three consecutive months, reflecting strong confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding recent market developments [1] - Overall, the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing and improving, with multiple positive factors accumulating and an increase in market vitality [1]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is reported at 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1][6][7] Manufacturing Activity - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, suggesting active manufacturing production [6][7] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a modest improvement in market demand [6][7] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.0%, while medium and small enterprises reported PMIs of 48.8% and 48.2%, respectively, indicating varying levels of activity across different enterprise sizes [6] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods showed PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6%, respectively, all above the manufacturing average, indicating robust activity [9] - The consumer goods sector has returned above the threshold line, reaching its highest level this year [2][9] Inventory and Pricing - The raw materials inventory index is at 48.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels, albeit at a slower pace [10] - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing profit margin for manufacturers [9][10] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectations index has risen for three consecutive months, now at 54.1%, indicating improved confidence among manufacturers regarding market conditions [10]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from 49.4% in August[1][7] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month[1][7] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a 1.1 percentage point increase, the highest in nearly six months[2][8] - The new orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating weaker demand recovery compared to production[2][8] - New export orders improved by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%, outpacing the increase in domestic orders[2][3] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6%, while high-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.9%[3][16] - High-energy consumption industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure[3][16] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector Trends - The construction PMI slightly improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, while the service sector PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%[4][20] - The service sector's new orders index dropped significantly by 1.0 percentage point to 46.7%, indicating reduced consumer activity[4][34]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for September 2025 is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal recovery trends[2][5] - The production index rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, indicating accelerated production activities as extreme weather impacts dissipate[5][14] - The new orders index increased slightly to 49.7%, suggesting persistent demand insufficiency, with a widening production-demand gap of 2.2 percentage points[5][14] Industry Performance - Equipment manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 51.9%, up 1.4 percentage points, while high-tech manufacturing PMI remains stable at 51.6%[5][15] - Consumer goods manufacturing PMI reached its highest level of the year at 50.6%, driven by seasonal factors like the upcoming holiday[5][15] - Traditional high-energy-consuming industries saw a decline in PMI to 47.5%, influenced by weak demand from real estate and infrastructure investments[5][15] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to show a positive trend in manufacturing PMI due to the end of extreme weather and the onset of the traditional production peak season[5] - Recent economic stimulus measures, including policy adjustments and new financial tools, are anticipated to support economic growth in the fourth quarter[5] Service Sector - The service sector business activity index for September is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a cooling in service consumption post-summer[31] - Financial services continue to show strength, with the business activity index rising above 60%, indicating robust support for the real economy[31] Construction Sector - The construction sector's business activity index increased slightly to 49.3%, ending a two-month decline but remaining at historically low levels due to reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure[35] - Anticipated government projects and new financial tools are expected to bolster construction activity in the upcoming quarter[35]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in September rose to 49.8%, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing activity [1][4]. - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while the new orders index rose to 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement in market demand [1][5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods showed strong expansion, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [6]. - The consumer goods sector has returned above the threshold line, achieving its highest level this year [2][6]. Group 3: Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index improved to 48.5%, indicating a better employment situation in manufacturing, while the raw materials inventory index rose to 48.5%, suggesting a slowdown in inventory reduction [4][7]. - The production expectations index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 54.1%, showing a positive outlook among manufacturers for upcoming market conditions [7]. Group 4: Price Dynamics - The purchasing price index for raw materials was at 53.2%, indicating a slight decrease but still in the expansion zone, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, suggesting a contraction in output prices [6]. - The gap between raw material purchasing prices and factory prices widened to 5.0 percentage points, indicating a shrinking profit margin for manufacturers [6].

Core Viewpoints - The economic growth structure is shifting from traditional sectors to new momentum, with significant improvements in new momentum sectors [1][7][73]. Manufacturing Sector - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal trends [1][7][73]. - The production index reached a six-month high of 51.9%, increasing by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index rose only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7% [1][7][73]. - The demand structure shows that new export orders increased more significantly than domestic orders, with new export orders rising by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8% [1][13][73]. - The purchasing volume index rose by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, indicating increased procurement activity due to stronger production [1][7][73]. New Momentum Industries - New momentum industries, such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, saw significant PMI improvements, with equipment manufacturing PMI rising by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6% [2][19][74]. - The EPMI for emerging industries increased by 4.6 percentage points to 52.4%, indicating a positive trend in these sectors [2][19][74]. - In contrast, high-energy-consuming industries experienced a decline in PMI, dropping 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments [2][19][74]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point of 50%, with the construction PMI remaining low at 49.3% and the service PMI declining by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1% [2][24][74]. - The service sector, particularly industries related to consumer travel, such as dining and entertainment, saw significant declines in business activity indices [2][24][74]. - Conversely, sectors like postal and financial services maintained high activity indices above 60% [2][24][74]. Future Outlook - Although traditional sectors face downward pressure, new momentum is expected to provide stronger support for the economy, with ongoing monitoring of the effects of new growth policies [3][75]. - The implementation of new growth policies in key industries such as construction and steel is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with real estate and infrastructure downturns [3][75].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from 49.4% in August[1][7] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a 1.1 percentage point increase, the highest in nearly six months[2][8] - New orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating weaker recovery compared to production[2][8] Demand Structure - New export orders index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%, showing stronger external demand compared to domestic orders[2][3] - The overall demand structure continues to reflect that external demand is outperforming internal demand[2][3] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6%, while high-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.9%[3][17] - High-energy consumption industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure sectors[3][17] Non-Manufacturing PMI Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, with service sector PMI dropping significantly by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%[5][33] - Construction PMI showed slight recovery, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, but still remains at historical lows[5][21] Future Outlook - Despite downward pressure on traditional sectors, new economic drivers are showing significant support for growth, necessitating close monitoring of new growth policies[4][25] - The implementation of new stability policies in key industries is expected to mitigate risks associated with infrastructure and real estate downturns[4][25]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous month[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, slightly down from 50.3%[2] - The manufacturing PMI's increase aligns with seasonal trends, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4 percentage points (pct) compared to the previous value[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index rose to 51.9% (+1.1pct), indicating stronger supply than demand[2] - The new orders index increased to 49.7% (+0.2pct), while the new export orders index was at 47.8% (+0.6pct), showing resilience in external demand[2] - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains skewed towards supply exceeding demand[2] Group 3: Price Index Trends - The price index declined after three consecutive increases, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.2% (-0.1pct) and the factory price index at 48.2% (-0.9pct)[2] - This reflects a weakening impact of "anti-involution" policies on upstream raw material prices, shifting focus to the actual implementation of policies[2] Group 4: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9% (+1.4pct), marking the highest point since March[2] - The consumer goods sector PMI increased to 50.6% (+1.4pct), driven by seasonal demand ahead of the upcoming holidays[2] - The high-energy-consuming industries PMI fell to 47.5% (-0.7pct), consistent with previous price index trends[2] Group 5: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3pct to 50.0%, slightly below the five-year average[2] - In the service sector, travel-related consumption saw a seasonal decline, while financial services maintained high activity levels[2] - The construction PMI was at 49.3% (+0.2pct), with weather conditions impacting project initiation[2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for September is reported at 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, suggesting continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1][3]. Manufacturing Activity - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, marking a six-month high, indicating active manufacturing production [1][4]. - The new orders index is at 49.7%, reflecting a slight improvement in market demand, increasing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][4]. Industry Performance - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods have PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average, indicating robust activity in these sectors [1][4][5]. - The consumer goods sector has returned above the threshold, reaching its highest level this year [2][5]. Employment and Supply Chain - The employment index stands at 48.5%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved hiring conditions in the manufacturing sector [3][5]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.8%, suggesting that the delivery times for raw materials are improving [3]. Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating that upstream prices are still rising but at a slower pace [5]. - The factory price index is at 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating that factory prices remain below the threshold, with a faster decline [5]. Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectations index has risen for three consecutive months, now at 54.1%, indicating a positive outlook among manufacturers [5][6]. - Industries such as agricultural processing, automotive, and aerospace have high confidence levels, with expectation indices above 57.0% [6].