Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After this round of price increases, the valuation of styrene has been restored, and the styrene - pure benzene spread has widened to a new high for the year. Driven by profits, some maintenance - scheduled plants ended maintenance ahead of schedule recently, increasing supply and alleviating the near - term spot shortage. As a result, both the styrene - pure benzene spread and the absolute price of styrene have started to decline. Subsequently, styrene is gradually entering the off - season for demand, and its price is expected to move downward [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7200 - 7800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.94% and a historical percentile of 86.2% (3 - year) [2] - For inventory management when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops: 1) Short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7400 - 7500 to prevent inventory depreciation. 2) Sell call options (EB2507C7600) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 80 - 140 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders: 1) Buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7200 - 7300 to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs. 2) Sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 60 - 100 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 2. Core Contradiction - After the price increase, styrene's valuation was repaired, and the spread with pure benzene widened. Profit - driven early - ended maintenance increased supply, easing the spot shortage and causing price drops. Entering the off - season, the price is expected to fall [3] 3.利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - As of May 19, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.21 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons (- 8.11%) from the previous period, approaching the 5 - ton mark [4] - Recently, styrene plants of Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical have shut down successively, tightening the near - term spot liquidity [4] 4.利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - In April, China's pure benzene imports were 44.81 tons, a 16.12% month - on - month decrease but a 69.57% year - on - year increase, still at a high level. From late May, previously - traded European pure benzene will arrive in Asia, and there are new orders, so future imports are expected to remain high [7] - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, and many downstream plants plan maintenance in May - June, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7] - The 45 - ton styrene plant of Shenghong and the 72 - ton styrene plant of Lihuayi plan to restart soon, alleviating the current spot shortage of styrene [7] - The current tariff cut has not brought a large number of new export orders to the terminal market, and styrene is gradually entering the off - season [7] 5. Styrene Basis and Price Changes - The basis of East China - EB05, EB06, EB07, and EB08 all increased on May 22, 2025, compared with May 21, 2025 [8] - The prices of styrene futures contracts (EB2505, EB2506, EB2507, EB2508) and spot prices in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) all decreased on May 22, 2025, compared with May 21, 2025 [8][9] - The EB non - integrated profit increased by 15.85 yuan/ton, while the EB integrated profit decreased [9] - The profits of some downstream products such as phenol and aniline increased, while the profits of HIPS and GPPS decreased [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, and cotton prices may rebound in the short term. However, there are still many policy uncertainties, and the actual implementation of orders needs to be monitored. If the order continuity is poor, the rebound height of cotton prices may be limited, and they will still face downward pressure during the off - season of demand. Attention should also be paid to weather changes in production areas and cotton inventory reduction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.1232, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.293 [3]. Cotton Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if cotton prices rise [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 to prevent rising cotton prices from increasing procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if cotton prices fall [3]. Core Contradictions - The unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, but there are many policy uncertainties. The actual implementation of orders needs to be monitored. If the order continuity is poor, the rebound height of cotton prices may be limited, and they will face downward pressure during the off - season of demand. Attention should also be paid to weather changes in production areas and cotton inventory reduction [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, and high - quality resources are scarce. The remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5]. - Sino - US talks have been held, and the US has suspended the 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the initial 90 days, with potential subsequent changes. Short - term export orders are expected to increase [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged [6]. - The downstream market is in the traditional off - season, the finished product inventory of cloth mills has increased slightly, and downstream enterprises are more cautious due to frequent policy changes [6]. Cotton and Yarn Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton 01 | 13,485 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | Cotton 05 | 13,505 | 10 | 0.07% | | Cotton 09 | 13,430 | - 10 | - 0.07% | | Yarn 01 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Yarn 05 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Yarn 09 | 19,695 | - 15 | - 0.08% | [5][7] Cotton and Yarn Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton Basis | 1,191 | 64 | | Cotton 01 - 05 | - 20 | - 15 | | Cotton 05 - 09 | 75 | 20 | | Cotton 09 - 01 | - 55 | - 5 | | Cotton - Yarn Spread | 6,305 | 25 | | Domestic - Foreign Cotton Spread | 1,090 | - 70 | | Domestic - Foreign Yarn Spread | - 655 | 0 | [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes | Index | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCI 3128B | 14,621 | 54 | 0.37% | | CCI 2227B | 12,788 | 67 | 0.53% | | CCI 2129B | 14,903 | 55 | 0.37% | | FCI Index S | 13,652 | 0 | 0% | | FCI Index M | 13,477 | 0 | 0% | | FCI Index L | 13,287 | 0 | 0% | [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests patiently holding positions, taking a wait - and - see approach, and making few moves. Traders are advised to follow the trend, moderately allocate on pullbacks, and hold long positions firmly [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1. Market Review - In the morning, Treasury bond futures opened higher and then oscillated downward, almost turning negative before the close. The intraday decline of A - shares drove up the price of Treasury bond futures briefly. In the afternoon, Treasury bond futures continued to decline and then rebounded before the close. The T main contract closed slightly up, while other varieties closed down [1]. - The open - market operation had 64.5 billion yuan in maturities and 154.5 billion yuan in new operations, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan. After the opening, funds tightened slightly, and the overnight anonymous inter - bank funding rate reached around 1.53%, slightly higher than before the market, possibly related to tax payments [1]. 3.2. News - The first - batch pilot scale of the long - term investment reform of insurance funds was 50 billion yuan, the second - batch was 112 billion yuan, and the third - batch of 60 billion yuan is to be approved, with a total scale of 222 billion yuan [2]. 3.3. Market Outlook - Funds are a significant trend factor in the near term. Tax payments affect short - term liquidity to some extent, but the trend of the recent downward movement of the funds' central level towards the policy rate is still obvious. Therefore, trend trading should follow the trend, moderately allocate on pullbacks, and hold long positions firmly [3]. 3.4. Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On May 22, 2025, TS2506 was at 102.362 (down 0.008 from the previous day), TF2506 at 105.975 (down 0.01), T2506 at 108.81 (up 0.005), and TL2506 at 119.55 (down 0.02) [4]. - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions were 124,994 hands (up 1,285), TF contract positions were 168,651 hands (down 3,185), T contract positions were 219,470 hands (up 2,258), and TL contract positions were 126,747 hands (down 167) [4]. - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) was - 0.0744 (up 0.0007), TF basis (CTD) was 0.2742 (up 0.3199), T basis (CTD) was 0.2605 (up 0.2879), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.4354 (up 0.3406) [4]. - **Trading Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume was 34,274 hands (up 4,013), TF main contract trading volume was 47,004 hands (up 4,789), T main contract trading volume was 65,126 hands (up 12,458), and TL main contract trading volume was 67,554 hands (down 5,858) [4]. - **Funding Rates and Changes**: DR001 was 1.5086% (down 0.0077 percentage points), DR007 was 1.5709% (down 0.0147 percentage points), and DR014 was 1.6585% (down 0.0178 percentage points) [4].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2025 - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract today added 335 lots, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week's quotes. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 750 - 820 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.8% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 790 yuan/m³ to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, buy put options (lg2507P800) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 9.5 - 14 yuan to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options (lg2507C850) at an entry range of 5.5 - 7.5 yuan to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 750 - 800 yuan/m³ to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (lg2507P750) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5.5 - 12 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot log purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The main contract added 335 lots today, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts was -23.8%, and China's total coniferous log imports were 2.185 million m³, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, with a larger decline than the previous month and a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%. Due to the decline in foreign shipping profits in April and May, the contract signing volume decreased, and the reduction in arrivals will be reflected in June. Port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. The average daily port outbound volume was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price difference between wood squares and logs in Rizhao is trending wider, and downstream profits are rising. Currently, the basis of almost all log specifications is positive, but there is some market controversy about the deviation of the size difference. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent supply reduction and subsequent delivery games. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, spot price increases after conversion (108%), main contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and converted basis for different specifications of logs in Rizhao and Taicang ports on May 22, 2025 [3][6]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: In April 2025, radiation pine imports were 1.65 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, China's port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Shandong's port inventory was 1,899,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Jiangsu's port inventory was 1,118,568 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 24,968 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 30.8%. - **Demand**: As of May 16, 2025, the average daily port outbound volume of logs was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Shandong's average daily outbound volume was 32,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Jiangsu's average daily outbound volume was 22,900 m³, a week - on - week increase of 700 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 28.7%. - **Profit**: As of May 23, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was -48 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/m³, and the import profit of spruce was -109 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/m³. - **Main Spot**: On May 22, 2025, the spot prices of 3.9 medium (3.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) logs in Taicang Port, 5.9 medium (5.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, and 6 medium (5.8A) logs in Taicang Port were 750 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, and 780 yuan/m³ respectively, with no price changes on the day and year - on - year decreases of 8.5%, 4.9%, 8.3%, and 6.0% respectively [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent reduction in arrivals. Macroeconomic policies may play a role [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand may be weaker than expected, and the goods movement is slow. The subsequent shipping volume may recover [5].

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated May 22, 2025, with analysts Dai Hongxu and Yu Weihan [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with persistent supply over - capacity pressure. The approaching of the wet season in the Southwest will increase production and inventory, while demand remains weak. Polycrystalline silicon is in a state of alternating fundamentals and delivery logic, with high - inventory pressure and weakening downstream demand [3] Price Forecast and Volatility Industrial Silicon - The price of the industrial silicon main contract faces strong resistance at 8,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.6% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 75.4% [2] Polycrystalline Silicon - The polycrystalline silicon main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.91% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 89% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, sell industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) with a 60% hedging ratio, rated 3 out of 5. For high - inventory and impairment risks, sell call options with an 80% hedging ratio (rated 4) and buy out - of - the - money put options (rated 3) [2] Procurement Management - To prevent future raw material price increases, buy industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon forward contracts according to the production plan, with the hedging ratio based on the plan (rated 1). Also, sell put options (rated 2) and buy out - of - the - money call options (rated 1) [2] Core Contradictions Industrial Silicon - Supply over - capacity persists due to the approaching wet season and expected production increases in the Southwest. Demand is weak, with downstream reduction and production cut expectations [3] Polycrystalline Silicon - The market alternates between fundamentals and delivery logic. High - inventory pressure exists on the supply side, and downstream demand weakens after the photovoltaic installation rush. There may be a contradiction between the main contract's open interest and the number of warehouse receipts [3] 利多/Positive Factors Industrial Silicon - Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand. Cost reduction space is limited, providing strong cost support [4] Polycrystalline Silicon - Potential capacity integration and clearance plans or agreements may improve the industry situation. Low willingness for enterprise delivery may lead to a delivery - based market [4] 利空/Negative Factors Industrial Silicon - The approaching wet season will increase production in the Southwest. Downstream polycrystalline silicon enterprises' joint production cuts will further weaken demand. Inventory continues to accumulate [4] Polycrystalline Silicon - Failure of enterprise capacity integration and clearance, and continuous inventory accumulation with weak demand [4] Price and Volume Data Industrial Silicon - The main contract's latest price is 7,880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan, a weekly decrease of 530 yuan (- 6.30%), and a yearly decrease of 36.14%. The trading volume is 208,397 lots, and the open interest is 183,690 lots [6] Polycrystalline Silicon - The main contract's latest price is 35,860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 235 yuan, a weekly decrease of 2,560 yuan (- 6.66%). The trading volume is 157,225 lots, and the open interest is 73,488 lots [6] Spot Price Data Industrial Silicon - Spot prices of different grades and regions show declines. For example, the average price of East China 553 is 8,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 1.14%) [11] Inventory Data - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 65,298 lots, down 355 lots (- 1.85%). Inventory in various delivery warehouses shows different changes, with some decreasing [19]

根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓38316、乾坤期货，总持仓25019、国泰君安，总持仓23071；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓32995、国泰君安，总持仓29487、中信期货，总持仓23676； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：一德期货、持仓19422、增仓2913，中泰期货、持仓5310、增仓273，中信建投、 持仓6395、增仓253；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓13547、减仓-3755，华泰期货、持仓2286、减仓-935，国泰君安、 持仓13868、减仓-851； 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月22日收盘主力合约豆一2507,涨跌-0.29%,成交量12.30万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为3117手。 豆一期货全合约总计成交19.53万手，比上一日减少8.81万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓23.55万手，比上一日减少1611手。全合约 前20席位空头持仓25.10万手，比上一日增加284手。 | | | | | 2025年5月22日豆一全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The main contract for apple futures closed at 2510 with a decrease of 1.83% as of May 22, with a trading volume of 95,900 contracts and a net short position of 7,384 contracts among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all apple futures contracts was 102,400 contracts, a decrease of 44,200 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 64,600 contracts, down by 7,485 contracts, while short positions totaled 72,200 contracts, down by 6,911 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Dongzheng Futures (7,554 contracts), CITIC Futures (5,767 contracts), and Guotai Junan (5,668 contracts) [1][3]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (13,098 contracts), Dongzheng Futures (7,493 contracts), and CITIC Futures (6,300 contracts) [1][3]. Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from Dongwu Futures (2,341 contracts, up by 681), Chang'an Futures (3,491 contracts, up by 499), and Zheshang Futures (3,534 contracts, up by 410) [1][3]. - The top three decreases in long positions were from CITIC Futures (5,767 contracts, down by 2,263), Guotai Junan (5,668 contracts, down by 1,812), and Dongzheng Futures (7,554 contracts, down by 1,743) [1][3]. Short Position Changes - The top three increases in short positions were from Huatai Futures (2,183 contracts, up by 589), Baocheng Futures (2,600 contracts, up by 524), and Huishang Futures (2,268 contracts, up by 222) [1][3]. - The top three decreases in short positions were from GF Futures (1,729 contracts, down by 1,658), CITIC Futures (6,300 contracts, down by 1,522), and Guotai Junan (13,098 contracts, down by 1,240) [1][3].

文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年5月22日30年期国债期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | | 会员 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | | | J | 中信期货 | 20,921 | 2,067 | 中信期货 | 17,768 | 493 | 东证期货 | 10,530 | 1,050 | | 2 | 东证期货 | 15,931 | -2,914 | 东证期货 | 8,588 | -723 | 银河期货 | 8,012 | 756 | | 3 | 国泰君安 | 15,099 | -621 | 国泰君安 | 8,398 | 536 | 中信期货 | 7,712 | 126 | | 4 | 表闻期货 | 6,702 | 101 | 平安期货 | 4,322 | 147 | 国投期货 | 6,839 | 79 | | 5 | 海通期货 | 6,688 | -255 | 华泰期货 | 4,255 ...

贵金属日报：震荡回升 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月22日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格延续回升，美国新预算法案引发交易员对赤字的担忧，美债拍卖结果不佳，美国市场 股债汇三杀，欧洲股市则震荡。最终黄金2506合约收报3316.6美元/盎司，+0.97%；美白银2507合约收 报于33.575美元/盎司，+1.21%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报778.78元/克，+2.98%；SHFE白银 2506合约收8272元/千克，+2.04%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.4%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率33.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为14.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.7%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日减1.72吨 至919.88吨；iShare ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term nickel futures market shows a weak and volatile trend. The fundamental logic of the market currently dominates, and the impact of macro - sentiment has diminished. There is an expectation of increased supply in nickel ore, and the support at the bottom is weakening. However, the nickel - iron price has stopped falling and may provide some support. The new - energy sector may experience a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies at the macro level [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the China - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of the new Indonesian resource tax on April 26, and the increase in the expectation of interest - rate cuts due to the US CPI data falling short of expectations. Negative factors include the increase in ore supply at the end of the Philippine rainy season, the weakening support of the MHP - nickel sulfate link, the continued negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry, and the high inventory and lack of demand in the stainless - steel market [4]. Group 3: Specific Summaries 1. Nickel Price and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.71% and a historical percentile of 0.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product price decline and inventory impairment, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels (60% hedging ratio) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw - material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. 2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Disk Data - **Nickel Disk**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 123,280 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as Shanghai nickel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three have increased by 0.33%. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,530 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.55%. The basis of the main contract remained unchanged [5]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,870 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as stainless - steel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three increased by 0.23% - 0.31%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.50%. The basis of the main contract increased by 15.28% [6]. 3. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons. The LME nickel inventory is 201,786 tons, a decrease of 312 tons. The stainless - steel social inventory is 980.7 tons, a decrease of 8.4 tons. The nickel - pig - iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7].