Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report In H1 2025, the convertible bond market showed characteristics of "prominent BETA robustness, intensified scarcity of high - quality targets, stratified investor structure, and upgraded strategy differentiation", providing a clear direction for subsequent layout. Looking ahead, four main lines should be focused on: continuing the BETA logic of "bond nature as a shield and equity nature as a spear" to capture market elasticity and downside protection; targeting scarce "high - quality underlying stocks, favorable terms, and strong bond floor" targets to dig for ALPHA returns; adapting to structural changes and upgrading arbitrage, long, and neutral strategies to "composite tools"; and managing credit, valuation, and liquidity risks through portfolio diversification, dynamic position adjustment, and derivative hedging to achieve the optimal balance of return and risk [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 H1 Convertible Bond Market Trend Review 1.1 Data - Revealed BETA Robustness In 2025, the A - share market fluctuated more, and the small - cap style was volatile. With the decline in bond yields, robust assets were scarce. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, with its dual attributes of "bond nature as a shield and equity nature as a spear", could provide volatility buffering through its bond nature and capture upside potential when the stock market recovered. In the past year, it had a maximum drawdown of - 8.87%, a lower proportion of down - days (46.47%), and a gain of 9.72%. Its trading volume and turnover showed an upward trend, attracting funds and laying a foundation for subsequent market continuation [4][6][9]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market: Dynamic Analysis of Volatility and Price Distribution 1.2.1 Implied Volatility Distribution Time - Series Analysis From Jun 2023 to Jun 2025, the implied volatility of the convertible bond market first decreased and then increased. In the volatility decline stage, the proportion of low - volatility bonds increased, and in the rise stage, the proportion of high - volatility bonds rose [11]. 1.2.2 Analysis of the Proportion of Convertible Bonds in Different Price Ranges From Jan to Aug 2024, the proportion of convertible bonds in the 80 - 100 yuan range was relatively high. After Aug 2024, the proportion of bonds above 100 yuan increased, especially in the 110 - 120 yuan and 120 - 130 yuan ranges, while the proportion of bonds below 80 yuan decreased. There was a correlation between changes in implied volatility and the proportion of convertible bonds in different price ranges [16][18]. 2. Private Convertible Bond Strategy Review 2.1 Latest Changes in the Number and Scale of Convertible Bond Private Fund Managers Convertible bond trading strategy private fund managers showed a significant scale distribution. Managers with a scale of 0 - 5 billion dominated, with 23 managers and 159 products. From 2020 to 2025, the number of managers increased steadily, reaching 30 in 2025. The market concentration was low, and small - scale managers had more opportunities. The convertible bond strategy type also changed, with some managers shifting from convertible bond arbitrage to long strategies and some long - only managers using stock index futures for hedging [20][22][24]. 2.2 Performance of Convertible Bond Strategies Quantitative convertible bond strategies showed significant advantages in terms of return, risk control, and risk - adjusted return. As of May 30, 2025, the annualized return of quantitative convertible bond strategies was 8.74%, significantly higher than the 5.22% of subjective convertible bond strategies, with a maximum drawdown of 1.25% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.31. However, subjective convertible bond strategies had greater return elasticity in trend - following markets [26][28][31]. 3. Conclusions and Investment Outlook 3.1 Valuation Increase after Concentrated Risk Release In 2024, the convertible bond market's credit risk was released concentratedly, leading to a large number of mispriced opportunities. As the underlying stock market recovered, the mispricing was quickly corrected. The dual - low strategy was strong from Sep 2024 to Mar 2025. The pricing logics of different types of convertible bonds (equity - biased, balanced, and bond - biased) were significantly different [32][33]. 3.2 Shrinking Stock and Stratified Investor Structure The convertible bond market's balance decreased from 799.818 billion yuan in Jun 2024 to 676.546 billion yuan in Jun 2025, mainly due to conversion and delisting, and insufficient new issuance. The investor structure showed a pattern of "partial exit and partial increase", with traditional heavy - position investors reducing their holdings of poor - quality targets, while QFIIs and private funds increased their holdings of high - quality ones, further magnifying the scarcity of high - quality convertible bonds [40][42][47]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Strategy Outlook: Anchoring Scarce Value and Embracing Diverse Opportunities in Structural Differentiation The convertible bond strategy should focus on three main lines: continuing BETA robustness by strengthening the "offense - defense balance" logic; digging for ALPHA by targeting "three - high - quality" targets; and upgrading strategies from "single - tool" to "composite strategies". Quantitative and subjective strategies can be combined in a "core + satellite" manner to adapt to different market stages [48][50][51].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月20日收盘主力合约20号胶2508,涨跌-1.76%,成交量9.67万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为2542手。 | | | | | 2025年6月20日20号胶全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买車 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 壇減 | | 1 | 东证期货 | 63.625 | 25,493 | 国泰君安 | 11,707 | 102 | 国泰君安 | 13,652 | 212 | | 2 | を泰期货 | 38,812 | 16,139 | 中信期货 | 8,742 | -152 | 中信期货 | 10,583 | -36 | | 3 | 中信期货 | 33,886 | 16,601 | を泰期货 | 4,959 | -117 | 东证期货 | 6,195 | 101 | | 4 | 中泰期货 | 25,576 | 10,152 | 浙商期货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals is expected to be bullish. In the short term, with the need to wait for interest rate cuts, no escalation of geopolitical risks, and trade tariff negotiations not entering a sensitive period, the overall market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Short-term corrections are regarded as medium- to long-term buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, down 0.61%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.36 per ounce, down 1.5%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 0.49%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 1.91% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 89.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 10.3%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 61.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 6.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 34.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut is 3.4% [3]. - In the long term, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.37 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14763 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 14 tons to 1243 tons daily, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - The Bank of England's interest rate meeting on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% unchanged, but the divergence among voting members increased [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 4.18 yuan or 0.53%; the SGX gold TD closed at 777.44 yuan per gram, down 4.2 yuan or 0.54%; the CME gold main contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, up $1 or 0.03%. The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 226 yuan or 2.5%; the SGX silver TD closed at 8777 yuan per kilogram, down 212 yuan or 2.36%; the CME silver main contract closed at $36.76 per ounce, down $0.42 or 1.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: The SHFE gold inventory was 18168 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1175.2202 tons, down 0.009 tons; the SHFE gold position was 161031 lots, down 1390 lots or 0.86%; the SPDR gold position was 947.37 tons, up 1.43 tons or 0.15%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1242.994 tons, up 13.962 tons or 1.14%; the CME silver inventory was 15419.0964 tons, down 26.3768 tons or 0.17%; the SGX silver inventory was 1378.875 tons, up 59.55 tons or 4.51%; the SHFE silver position was 387527 lots, down 58454 lots or 13.11%; the SLV silver position was 14763.000528 tons, up 87.6368 tons or 0.6% [13]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 98.7857, down 0.066 or 0.07%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.19, down 0.002 or 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42171.66 points, down 44.14 points or 0.1%; WTI crude oil spot was $75.6 per barrel, up $0.46 or 0.61%; LmeS copper 03 was $9619.5 per ton, down $31 or 0.32%; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 0.01% or 0.23%; the 10-year US real interest rate was 2.07%, down 0.01% or 0.48%; the 10 - 2-year US Treasury yield spread was 0.44%, down 0.01% or 2.22% [17].

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年6月19日 夏莹莹（投资咨询证书：Z0016569 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间7200-7700 | 28.0% | 0.09% | 84.4% | 0.4% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 强压力位35000 | 24.45% | -0.27% | 57.01% | -0.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，有存 | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来 锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SI2509/P ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月19日收盘主力合约苯乙烯2508,涨跌+2.00%,成交量22.15万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为6491手。 苯乙烯期货全合约总计成交77.09万手，比上一日减少16.35万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓36.38万手，比上一日增加3520手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓37.86万手，比上一日减少1.12万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓109020、中信期货，总持仓32608、华泰期货，总持仓29813；空头前三席 位为国泰君安，总持仓117237、东证期货，总持仓23212、永安期货，总持仓22269； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓16223、增仓4995，国泰君安、持仓48175、增仓1628，中泰期 货、持仓3981、增仓1601；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信建投、持仓5509、减仓-1025，乾坤期货、持仓4019、减仓-915，银河期 货、持仓5866、减仓-578； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓46529、增仓8078，东证期货、持仓6688、增仓964，永安期货 ...

南华商品指数：所有版块均上涨，能化板块领涨 王怡琳 2025-06-19 08:40:23 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨1.47%。板块指数中，所有板块均有所上涨，其中涨 幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，涨幅为2.48%；涨幅最小的板块是南华黑色指数，涨幅为0.1%。 主题指数中，所有 主题指数均有所上涨，其中涨幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，涨幅为3.96%；涨幅最小的主题指数是黑色原材料指 数，涨幅为0.01%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是原油，上涨5.3%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品 种指数是线材，跌幅为-0.87%。 数据来源：南华期货 免责声明 aranakabase: "Zagangan", "Alaman", "Alax Teleplay", "Anakata", " "Taller", "Alland", "Allen", "Allen", "Allen", "All Program", "All Program", "All Program Program Program > 南华期货 | 股票代码 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月18日 投资咨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The report suggests a light - position trial for long positions in treasury bond futures. The market initially weakened due to the disappointment of the "small essay" and the announcement of innovation policy measures at the Lujiazui Forum, but the overall sentiment remained positive. With the spread of geopolitical conflict news, the bulls became active again. Currently, the easing trend remains unchanged, and the long - end futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range, presenting a new trial - long opportunity [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened higher but then declined with the opening of the Lujiazui Forum, and then showed a weak performance. In the afternoon, the prices fluctuated upward, with TS and TL closing higher at the end of the session, while TF and T closed slightly lower. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 970 million yuan in the open market [2] - On June 18, 2025, for different contracts: TS2509 rose 0.002 to 102.538, TF2509 fell 0.02 to 106.275, T2509 fell 0.015 to 109.135, and TL2509 rose 0.08 to 120.87. There were also corresponding changes in contract positions, basis, and trading volume [5] 2. Market News - At the opening ceremony of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor announced the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai to promote the international operation of digital RMB and the development of financial market business [3] 3. Market Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The announcement of innovation policy measures by the central bank governor at the forum led to the disappointment of the "small essay" and a weakening of the bond market. However, the market's expectation of monetary policy easing continued. With the spread of geopolitical conflict news, the bulls became active again under the risk - aversion sentiment [4] - In terms of operation, the recent easing trend remains unchanged, but there is a lack of incremental factors to push interest rates to a new lower level. The long - end futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range, and the support - resistance conversion level can be regarded as a new trial - long opportunity [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The opening of the Lujiazui Forum today announced a series of measures, such as eight financial opening - up initiatives. Overall, the released information had no obvious unexpected highlights, so the market reaction was flat, maintaining a volatile state with no significant change in trading volume. The current economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state, lacking a clear trend and having limited driving force for the index. Coupled with the turbulent external situation and the sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, there are still uncertainties overseas, posing significant resistance to the short - term upward movement of the index. However, the management is determined to stabilize the market, so the downside space of the stock index is limited. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate within a range, waiting for new driving factors [4]. Market Review - Today, except for the CSI 300 Index, all other stock indexes closed down. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1.6146 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC increased in volume and price, while IH and IM increased in price with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced eight major financial opening - up initiatives, including setting up a trading report repository in the inter - bank market, a digital RMB international operation center, and a personal credit information agency; conducting a comprehensive reform pilot of offshore trade financial services in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai; developing free - trade offshore bonds; optimizing and upgrading the functions of free - trade accounts; piloting innovative structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai; and promoting RMB foreign exchange futures trading in conjunction with the CSRC [3]. - The CSRC announced that starting from October 9, 2025, qualified overseas investors will be allowed to participate in on - site ETF options trading for hedging purposes only [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Market Observation Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.23 | 10.5667 | 1.0037 | 23.8264 | 0.0486 | | IH | 0.01 | 4.843 | - 0.2249 | 8.1317 | - 0.1259 | | IC | 0.03 | 8.8945 | 0.2632 | 21.9162 | 0.0926 | | IM | 0.10 | 18.8199 | 0.8241 | 32.1988 | - 0.7768 | [5][6] Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.24 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.52 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 1191.067 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | - 1.6146 | [6]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月18日收盘主力合约短纤2508,涨跌+3.05%,成交量22.60万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为1984手。 短纤期货全合约总计成交40.29万手，比上一日新增6.28万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓24.02万手，比上一日增加8287手。全合约 前20席位空头持仓24.59万手，比上一日增加7132手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓26938、国泰君安，总持仓22256、银河期货，总持仓15813；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓26772、中信期货，总持仓25290、浙商期货，总持仓16632； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓10099、增仓1361，海通期货、持仓8110、增仓1171，乾坤期货、 持仓11433、增仓1150；多头减仓前二名分别是：中信建投、持仓5732、减仓-3455，永安期货、持仓5729、减仓-2000； 2025年6月18日短纤主力合约2508持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ...

Group 1: Methanol - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of negative news realization. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation situation. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [1] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the price of江苏现货 increased from 2383 to 2595, the日度变化 was 10, and the盘面MTO利润 remained at - 1001 except for - 986 on June 11 [1] Group 2: Plastic (Polyethylene) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The inventory of polyethylene is neutral overall. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in June decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of东北亚乙烯 increased from 790 to 800, the price of华东LL increased from 7210 to 7415, and the仓单 decreased from 5734 to 5556 [6] Group 3: PP (Polypropylene) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The upstream and middle - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 6340 to 6410, the price of华东PP increased from 7015 to 7140, and the出口利润 remained at - 20 [6] Group 4: PVC - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 200, and the factory - pickup basis is - 380. The downstream start - up is seasonal, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously decreasing. There are seasonal maintenance of northwest plants in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In June, pay attention to the realization of new plant commissioning and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders are acceptable. In June, macro - factors to watch include the ZZJ meeting and the US interest - rate decision. Coal prices are weak, and the cost of semi - coke is also weak. Calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits with PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory at a high level is continuously decreasing, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [10] - Summary of related data: From June 11 to June 17, 2025, the price of西北电石 decreased from 2350 to 2300, the price of山东烧碱 decreased from 872 to 852, and the price of电石法 - 西北 increased from 4420 to 4450 [10]