Core Insights - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, have led to significant disruptions in the global fertilizer market, with over 20% of global urea production capacity reportedly offline due to conflict and supply interruptions [4][6] - The price of urea has surged from under $400 per ton to approximately $435 per ton, nearing a 52-week high, indicating the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and market dynamics [2][4] - The closure of Israeli natural gas fields has severely impacted fertilizer production in Egypt, further exacerbating supply chain issues in the region [2][4] Fertilizer Market Dynamics - The global fertilizer market has experienced extreme volatility in the past two weeks, with significant price fluctuations following military actions in the region [2] - The conflict has led to the shutdown of Iranian urea and ammonia plants, which were not directly attacked but affected by the broader geopolitical situation [4] - The Middle East plays a crucial role in global fertilizer production, accounting for nearly one-third of urea exports and significant portions of sulfur and ammonia exports [4][6] Impact on Agriculture - The tensions in the Middle East are likely to increase agricultural input costs for farmers globally, particularly in the U.S., where a substantial portion of fertilizer is imported [6][7] - The Gulf region is a major importer of agricultural products, and any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact food security in the area [7][8] - Rising shipping insurance costs and potential supply chain disruptions are causing concern among exporters, particularly those dealing with key agricultural commodities like corn and rice [7][8] Geopolitical Considerations - While Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the likelihood of such an action remains low due to political and economic considerations [8] - The CEO of a major fertilizer company has indicated that the industry is closely monitoring risks in the region, as any disruption could have far-reaching effects on global food production [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of futures in supporting high-quality development within the agricultural sector, particularly through the innovative models adopted by enterprises in the futures market to stabilize operations and enhance supply chain security [1]. Group 1: Company Insights - Yuntu Holdings, a leading compound fertilizer company, has established a comprehensive risk management system that integrates futures trading into its procurement, production, and sales processes, allowing it to stabilize costs and ensure supply during price fluctuations [2][3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has seen its urea trading volume increase from 1.2 million tons in 2021 to approximately 2.45 million tons in 2024, demonstrating its proactive approach to risk management through futures [3][4]. - Huailong Group has actively participated in the urea futures market since its launch in 2019, recognizing the importance of futures tools for managing price volatility and enhancing operational efficiency [4][5]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Yuntu Holdings employs a risk management matrix that includes buying hedges to lock in costs, production guidance based on futures prices, and selling hedges to mitigate inventory devaluation risks [3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has innovated its business model by utilizing urea options and implementing strategies such as selling options to enhance sales profits and control procurement costs [4]. - Huailong Group has utilized futures to create virtual inventories, effectively managing procurement costs during periods of price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The article highlights the increasing adoption of basis trading models among enterprises, which not only stabilizes their operations but also supports upstream and downstream partners in managing costs and securing supply [6][7]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has successfully assisted downstream clients in locking in raw material costs through basis pricing, resulting in significant cost savings [6][7]. - The collaboration among enterprises in the futures market has led to the establishment of a new ecosystem that integrates futures trading with operational strategies, enhancing overall industry resilience [8][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continues to support the development of production and finance bases, aiming to enhance the understanding and utilization of futures among industry players [8][9]. - Yuntu Holdings plans to further promote the application of urea futures and assist clients in designing risk management strategies, fostering long-term cooperative ecosystems [8][10]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer aims to improve service quality by collecting feedback from upstream and downstream enterprises, enhancing the customization of risk management solutions [10].

印尼贸易部长：放宽进口措施涵盖林业产品、塑料材料和部分化肥。 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：市场观望情绪较浓，短期震荡格局 ➢ 国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价390.01-420.01美元/吨，较上周上调30-35美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价395.01-465.01美元/吨，上调40-60 美元/吨；波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价390.01-460.01美元/吨，上调40-60美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸396.01-458.01美元/吨，上调6-18美元/吨； 巴西小颗粒CFR价格420.01-470.01美元/吨，上调5-15美元/吨；印度到岸价399.01美元/吨，较上周持平。 ➢ 尿素现货：本周受出口消息面扰动，带动市场投机性增加，周三及周四现货成交货源。但周五至周日整体成交回归清淡，预计现货下周逐步回调。 2025年6月25日，中国尿素企业总库存量109.59万吨，较上周减少4.01万吨，环比减少3.53%。本周期国内尿素企业 ...

Price and Market Trends - Urea prices experienced fluctuations last week, with increased domestic maintenance leading to a slight decline in supply and a rise in downstream purchasing for topdressing, providing slight price support [1] - Internationally, urea prices surged due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and the impact of Indian tenders, causing domestic prices to rise slightly before retreating [1] - Current ex-factory prices are reported as follows: Shandong small and medium granules at 1750-1810 RMB/ton; Henan small granules at 1700-1800 RMB/ton; Hebei small granules at 1740-1780 RMB/ton [1] Production, Sales, and Inventory - This week's survey indicates that small granule urea production is at 1.015 million tons, a decrease of 0.32% week-on-week; large granule urea production is at 252,900 tons, down 5.30% [2] - Small granule urea sales reached 1.0854 million tons, an increase of 9.29%; large granule urea sales were 261,100 tons, up 1.02% [2] - The sales-to-production ratio for small granules is 106.93%, up 9.40 percentage points; for large granules, it is 103.25%, up 6.67 percentage points; total inventory stands at 999,800 tons, down 6.90% [2] Operating Rates - As of June 24, 2025, the national daily urea production is approximately 197,400 tons, with an operating rate of about 85.09% [3] - Coal-based urea enterprises have an operating rate of 84.22%, while those using natural gas and coke oven gas have an operating rate of 87.91% [3] - The overall operating rate for urea enterprises has decreased by 1.20 percentage points week-on-week but is up 6.60 percentage points year-on-year [3]

Group 1 - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Agricultural Technology") has completed the first round of inquiry letter responses, addressing 11 questions related to "business and technology," "reasonableness of performance changes," "reasonableness of large inventory," and "use of raised funds" [2] - Agricultural Technology's production capacity utilization rates for 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 65.14%, 68.72%, and 56.63%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year decline of 17.59% in 2024 [5] - The company plans to raise 552 million yuan through its IPO, which will be used for various projects, including a 300,000-ton annual production project for humic acid intelligent high tower compound fertilizer and a 150,000-ton annual production line for biological fertilizers [4] Group 2 - Agricultural Technology's main products include humic acid-enhanced fertilizers, controlled-release fertilizers, and water-soluble fertilizers, with its coated urea production and sales ranking first in the industry and humic acid compound fertilizers ranking second [4] - The inquiry letter highlights concerns regarding the reasonableness of Agricultural Technology's fundraising for capacity expansion, given its insufficient capacity utilization [2][5] - The overall fertilizer industry has experienced significant idle capacity, with average capacity utilization rates for listed companies in the sector being 47.07%, 52.78%, and 46.50% from 2022 to 2024 [5]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.2% from the previous week [1] - Average wholesale prices of six types of fruits slightly declined, with watermelon, banana, and grape decreasing by 3.2%, 1.7%, and 1.2% respectively [1] - Average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.13 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, with cauliflower, pumpkin, and garlic decreasing by 5.6%, 4.3%, and 4.2% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices continued to decline, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil decreasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1%, while rice increased by 0.2% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly increased, with crucian carp, large yellow croaker, and silver carp rising by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices were mainly up, with pork at 20.30 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.1%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Wholesale prices of finished oil slightly increased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline rising by 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.0% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were mainly up, with methanol, sulfuric acid, and polypropylene increasing by 4.0%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively, while soda ash decreased by 0.4% [2] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices showed slight fluctuations, with urea increasing by 0.2% and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices remained stable, with aluminum increasing by 1.0%, while zinc and copper decreased by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to decline, with coking coal and No. 2 smokeless lump coal decreasing by 1.0% and 0.1% respectively, while thermal coal remained stable at 750 yuan per ton [2] - Steel prices slightly decreased, with welded steel pipes, ordinary medium plates, and high-speed wire rod decreasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-26 下游农需释放，尿素震荡走高 市场分析 价格与基差：2024-12-16，尿素主力收盘1719元/吨（-18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1740 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1820元/吨（0）；小块无烟煤970元/吨（0），山东基差：15元/ 吨（-46）；河南基差：5元/吨（-46）；江苏基差：35元/吨（-36）；尿素生产利润126元/吨（0），出口利润-129元/吨 （-3）。 供应端：截至2024-12-16，企业产能利用率82.40%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为143.24 万吨（4.24），港口样本 库存量为15.50 万吨（-0.10）。 需求端：截至2024-12-16，复合肥产能利用率43.59%（1.67%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.10%（-0.44%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数7.18日（-0.88）。 伊朗以色列地缘冲突加剧，国际尿素价格维持高位。尿素开工高位运行，装置检修计划偏少，产量预计走高，供 应端压力较大。尿素下游农业需求追肥补货需求释放，工厂预售订单走高，但工业需求仍维持弱势，复合肥产 ...

大宗商品研究 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货大幅反弹，最终报收 1740（+42/+2.47%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价止跌企稳，成交火爆，河南出厂报 1710-1730 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1750 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1740-1750 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1620-1680 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1730-1740 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1620-1690 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 25 日，尿素行业日产 19.56 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.39 万吨(，较去 年同期增加 2.37 万吨；今日开工 84.49%，较去年同期 79.40%回升 5.09%。 【逻辑分析】 能源化工研发报告 今日，受市场消息刺激，整体情绪表现高涨，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价止跌企稳， 成交火爆。山东地区主流出厂报价窄幅下调，市场情绪表现高涨，工业复合肥开工率降 至低位，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需 采购，期货拉涨，贸易商囤货，新单成交大幅改善，待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主； 河南 ...