持续突破历史新高纪录后，国际金价近期走出"过山车"行情。 1月31日，现货黄金盘中大跌超12%，创40年来最大单日跌幅，最低触及4682美元/盎司；2月2日市场延续下跌趋势，最低触及4402美元/盎司，年内涨幅从 30%骤降至4%，前期涨势近乎抹平；而时至今日，国际金价在经历连续巨震后，上演深V反弹，重新站上5000美元/盎司关口，震荡行情加剧。 这场惊心动魄的行情，让此前持续加速上涨的贵金属市场瞬间降温，更让全球投资者陷入对"避险资产神话"的重新审视。当避险资产成为风险来源，投资者 还能持有黄金吗？黄金的上涨趋势是否还能延续？ 巨震溯源 1、导火索：沃什获提名，鹰派预期升温 黄金本轮暴跌的直接触发因素是特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下任美联储主席。 从凯文·沃什的主张来看，其过往以坚定的通胀鹰派著称，曾公开反对量化宽松并主张快速缩表，被视为美联储独立性的捍卫者；但近年来其立场转向务 实，公开支持降息，称不降息才是对美联储信誉的最大威胁，这一调整与特朗普希望更快降息的诉求形成表面契合，形成鹰派框架结合鸽派信号的独特组 合。即便如此，市场仍聚焦于其鹰派历史立场，担忧其上台后将推动"降息+缩表" ...

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced a broad increase, with notable gains in companies such as China Gold International (+3.10%), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (+2.82%), and Zijin Mining International (+2.12%) [1] - As of February 4, 2023, spot gold prices rebounded strongly, surpassing $5,000, with an intraday increase of over 2%, recovering nearly $600 from the week's low [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military actions in the Arabian Sea and incidents involving Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 2 - Multiple international investment banks indicate that the fundamental demand for gold remains unchanged, driven by global central bank purchases and increased private investment in gold for asset diversification [2] - The silver market is also supported by sustained industrial production demand, leading institutions to maintain a positive outlook on the rebound potential for both gold and silver prices [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.80% [3][4] - The Hong Kong market also opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.14% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.87% [5][6] Sector Performance - The storage chip sector experienced significant declines, with companies like Deep Kangjia A hitting the daily limit down, and others such as Puran, Lanke Technology, Baiwei Storage, and Shannon Chip also opening lower [2] - The AI computing power industry chain saw a downturn, particularly in the storage and CPO sectors, while semiconductor and consumer electronics themes were among the hardest hit [4] - Conversely, gold, basic metals, and oil and gas sectors showed signs of rebound [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks have shown a significant increase, driven by a strong rebound in gold prices, which have surpassed $5,000 per ounce, amid rising geopolitical tensions in the region [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Gold International (02099) rose by 5.13%, trading at 206.8 HKD [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) increased by 3.89%, trading at 39 HKD [1] - Zijin Mining Group (02259) saw a rise of 3.13%, trading at 224 HKD [1] - WanGuo Gold Group (03939) gained 3.07%, trading at 15.12 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On February 4, gold prices rebounded strongly, with a daily increase of over 2%, recovering nearly $600 from the week's low [1] - The geopolitical situation has escalated, with reports of U.S. military actions against Iranian drones and threats to U.S. vessels in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Multiple international investment banks indicate that the fundamental demand for gold remains unchanged, with global central banks and private investors increasing their gold holdings to diversify asset allocation [1] - Silver prices are supported by ongoing industrial demand, leading institutions to maintain a positive outlook on the rebound potential for both gold and silver prices [1]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 欧美股市集体收跌 观点分享： 欧美股市集体收跌，纳指跌超 1%，大型科技股领跌。周二（2 月 3 日）欧美股市集体 收跌，标普 500 指数跌近 1%，纳指跌超 1%。科技股普跌，美光科技跌超 4%，微软、英伟 达跌近 3%。黄金股表现强劲，盎格鲁黄金涨超 6%，泛美白银涨逾 5%。沃尔玛涨近 3%， 市值突破 1 万亿美元。市场对美联储货币政策不确定性加剧，叠加地缘紧张局势，压制市场 风险偏好，科技股承压明显。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 化工 ★★★★ | | 化工：当前化工板块主要矛盾有两方面：（1）关注反内卷带来的全行业利润修复预期，在 1 | | 月整体化工板块涨幅中，反内卷预期带来的利润修复是主要矛盾，目前芳烃板块已经大幅盈 | | 利，而烯烃板块涨幅相对偏小，部分品种如聚丙烯仍处于亏损状态；（2）伊朗带来的地缘溢 | | 价，伊朗主要影响整体化工的成本支撑，以及相关品种甲醇、LPG、乙二醇、塑料和尿素。 | ...

每经AI快讯，2月4日，贵金属板块连日走强，湖南黄金涨超7%，晓程科技涨超5%，恒邦股份、赤峰黄 金、山金国际、招金黄金等个股跟涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on February 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08% at 4064.68 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.39% at 14072.41 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.8% at 3298.32 points [1] - The precious metals sector continued to strengthen, with Hunan Gold rising over 7% and other stocks like Xiaocheng Technology and Hengbang Shares also seeing gains [1] - The storage chip sector opened lower, with Shen Kangjia A hitting the daily limit down, and other companies like Puran Shares and Lankai Technology also declining [1] Company News - Cambrian Technology issued a statement denying rumors about recent organizational meetings and confirmed that it has not provided revenue guidance [3] - Xuguang Electronics plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan for various projects and to supplement working capital [4] - First Automobile Works plans to use up to 10 billion yuan of its own funds for low-risk financial products [4] - Nidec has repurchased 15.99 million A-shares for a total of 4.386 billion yuan as of January 31, 2026 [4] - Guizhou Moutai has repurchased 329,800 shares for 451 million yuan, totaling 416,900 shares and 571 million yuan by the end of January [4] Industry Insights - The central government's policy supports the integration of artificial intelligence and agriculture, aiming to enhance agricultural technology innovation [7] - The global AI investment boom is expected to drive demand for power infrastructure in data centers, with an estimated addition of 106 GW from 2025 to 2030 [7] - The chemical industry is showing signs of gradual recovery, although it remains volatile due to macroeconomic factors [7] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Securities noted that while A-shares experienced high volatility, there remains resilience in the funding environment, with a significant reduction in net outflows from ETFs [8] - CITIC Securities highlighted that capacity pricing could enhance the investment returns of energy storage projects significantly [8] - CITIC Jinpu stated that the global commercial space industry is entering a new phase, with increased competition and collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises [8]

格隆汇2月4日丨湖南黄金(002155.SZ)涨6.96%，报39.180元，股价创历史新高，总市值612.25亿元。 ...

隔夜美股下挫，中概指数跌0.94%。港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.14%，国指跌0.15%，恒生科技指数跌 0.87%。权重科技股集体下跌，美团、快手跌近2%，腾讯跌1.55%；AI应用概念股集体走低，半导体 股、汽车股普跌；构看好金价银价反弹空间，黄金股继续带领有色金属股反弹，赤峰黄金、中国黄金国 际涨约4%。"化工新材料供应商"国恩科技首日高开25%。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in various ETFs, particularly in the metals and mining sectors, indicates a recovery in market sentiment following a period of volatility, driven by technical corrections and strategic reserve initiatives by major economies [1][2][4]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs have shown significant gains: - Cathay Metals ETF: +6.23% YTD +16.57% - Mining ETF: +5.80% YTD +18.51% - Cathay Metals LOF: +5.72% YTD +16.21% - Cathay Gold ETF: +5.03% YTD +12.07% - Gold Stocks ETF: +4.24% YTD +29.39% - Cathay Chemical ETF: +4.03% YTD +8.03% - Building Materials ETF: +4.03% YTD +10.91% [1]. Market Dynamics - The rebound in gold prices, reaching a peak of $4,949.99, and silver prices above $87, reflects a shift in market dynamics, with short positions being closed and new buying interest emerging [2]. - The increase in holdings of the iShares Silver Trust by 1,023.23 tons marks the third-largest single-day increase in its history, indicating strong investor interest [3]. Strategic Reserve Initiatives - The Chinese government is exploring the expansion of its copper strategic reserve, which may support copper prices, similar to the U.S. strategic reserve initiatives [3]. - Trump's plan to initiate a $12 billion mineral reserve aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing against supply disruptions, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing security over efficiency in resource management [4]. Future Outlook - The expectation of a resource bull market remains, supported by historical patterns where extreme volatility in gold prices often precedes significant upward trends [5]. - Long-term factors such as monetary easing, the safe-haven appeal of gold, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to sustain gold's upward trajectory [6]. - Investors are advised to adopt differentiated strategies, balancing short-term opportunities with long-term value, while being cautious of market volatility [7]. Related Investment Opportunities - Key ETFs to consider include: - Largest Oil ETF: 561360 - Unique Coal ETF: 515220 - Cathay Chemical ETF: 516220 - Largest Building Materials ETF: 159745 [9][10].