Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - High sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant spot supplies in the near - term, while low sulfur fuel oil shows a volatile trend [1] - For trading strategies, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trades, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances as well as the digestion of near - term high sulfur spot [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - High sulfur: The number of buyers in the high sulfur spot window has increased, and low - price transactions have hit the high sulfur spot premium, which has fallen below zero. High inventories in Singapore and increased near - term domestic spot arrivals have pressured prices. Russian supply is expected to recover in July, but there are still risks due to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. High sulfur seasonal power generation demand remains supportive in the third quarter, with strong demand in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. There are expectations of an increase in China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction, which may boost feed demand [4] - Low sulfur: The low sulfur fuel oil spot premium is volatile. Supply is continuously increasing, and downstream demand lacks specific drivers. Supply from Nigeria, South Sudan, and Al - Zour refinery is increasing, and China's low sulfur production is expected to grow in June, with sufficient supply and stable demand [4] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see, and pay attention to the digestion of near - term high sulfur spot [5] - Options: No specific view [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Supply - related - Russia: Off - line refining capacity is expected to decrease in July. Exports of high sulfur fuel oil have started to recover in the past two weeks. The EU plans to intensify sanctions, including lowering the oil price cap [7] - Mexico: The supply of high sulfur fuel oil has fallen to the level before the Olmeca refinery's production. The Olmeca refinery's operation is improving, and other refineries' processing volumes have changed. High sulfur exports in June were at a low level but showed a rebound in the first week of July [10] - Middle East: The sentiment of the Iran - Israel conflict has subsided, but the US sanctions on Iran continue. Summer power generation demand in Saudi Arabia and Iran may divert supply. High sulfur exports in June were at a low level [15] Demand - related - High sulfur power generation: Egypt's high sulfur fuel oil procurement is strong due to summer power generation demand. South Asia's power generation demand is near the end, and the Middle East's power generation demand is expected to remain strong in July [16] - China's demand: The expected increase in the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio may support feed demand. China's high sulfur fuel oil imports rebounded in June [22] - High sulfur marine fuel: Demand is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth of the number of ships with desulfurization towers [23] Low sulfur fuel oil - South Sudan: The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw material Dar Blend is steadily recovering, with multiple export tenders [26] - Al - Zour refinery: Low - sulfur exports are expected to remain at a high level, and supply to the pan - Singapore area has increased [27] - Nigeria: Near - term low - sulfur supply is abundant, mainly flowing to Singapore. The Dangote refinery's FCC gasoline unit is still unstable [30] - China: The domestic low - sulfur market has stable production, and the third - batch export quota is expected to be issued soon, with sufficient quotas [38] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Fuel oil spot: Data on the prices of Brent, HSFO380, LSFO, etc., and their spreads are presented [40] - High sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - term spreads, and spot premiums are provided [47] - Low sulfur fuel oil spreads: Data on cross - regional and cross - variety spreads, and spot premiums are provided [53] - Gasoline - fuel oil ratio: Data on the equivalent - calorific - value prices of different fuels are presented [60] - Cross - regional freight: Data on freight rates from different regions are provided [62] - Singapore filling spreads: Data on high - sulfur and low - sulfur filling spreads in Singapore are presented [65] - Fuel oil inventory: Data on fuel oil inventories in Singapore, ARA, US, etc., and the total inventory of five countries are provided [68] - Inventory structure in different regions: Data on gasoline, diesel, and refined oil inventories in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf are provided [70][72] - Terminal sales: Singapore's marine fuel sales data for May are announced, including high - sulfur and low - sulfur sales volumes and their proportions [74]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

英国政府达成协议，重启林赛（炼油厂）的燃料供应。 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 沥青供应端影响因素 ——沥青专题报告（三） 2025年7月4日 • 安婧 • anjing@cmschina.com.cn • 执业资格号Z0014623 沥青的转产工艺 数据来源： 《炼油厂总工艺流程设计 ➢ 沥青转产焦化料的原理：焦化料顾名 思义是指延迟焦化装置的原料，从左 图可知焦化料即是调和或未调和的 减 压渣油，并且由图可知延迟焦化装置 和沥青氧化 /调和装置的原料相同， 因此焦化料（减压渣油）若用于产沥 青则不能用于延迟焦化装置，使得两 条生产线存在"此消彼长"的关系。 ➢ 转产一般只发生在地方炼厂，因沥青 是地炼的主产品，沥青利润对地炼综 合利润起决定性作用，但对于主营炼 厂而言，沥青是其副产品，主营炼厂 的开工率 /产量主要考虑的是炼油综 合利润。 ➢ 由于产沥青的地炼通常加工的是中重 质高硫原油，因此这里的焦化料（减 压渣油）通常指的是高硫渣油。 ➢ 炼厂可根据沥青生产利润以及通过对 比沥青价格与焦化料价格来调节道路 》，招商期货 沥青的产量。 沥青供应影响因素分析——地炼利润 理论上，地炼沥青产量调整的逻辑推演： 1.首先，只有沥青生产利润>0时，炼厂才会生产沥 ...

俄罗斯方面称，在夜间袭击中击中了乌克兰的无人机工厂、军事机场和炼油厂。 ...

Core Insights - The Indian government documents indicate a long-term need for financial support to establish new smelting and refining capacities of 40,000 to 50,000 tons per year [1] Group 1 - The focus on developing smelting and refining capabilities is crucial for India's industrial growth [1] - Financial backing is essential to achieve the targeted capacity expansion in the sector [1]

弘则研究 内卷的反内卷：过剩工业品的春天？20250703 摘要 反内卷与 GDP 高增长目标存在冲突，官方尚未明确解释或调整 GDP 目 标，当前政策对市场更多是短期情绪冲击，难有全局性改变。需关注新 能源领域，特别是光伏和新能源车产业，这两个领域疫情期间产能扩张 显著，可能面临产能约束政策。 焦煤市场受多重因素推涨，包括地缘政治风险和环保限产，市场担忧钢 材产业重蹈 2015 年供给侧改革覆辙。在当前供给侧改革情绪下，不建 议做空焦煤，前期空单可考虑阶段性止损平仓，等待更明确政策出台后 再决策。 钢铁行业 1-5 月粗钢产量低于去年同期，市场已通过价格自我调节，下 半年无显著行政减产必要。焦煤行业资产负债率良好，钢材出口竞争力 增强，适当下行的焦煤价格有利于下游利润和出口，总体而言，钢铁行 业供给侧改革概率不高。 原料市场供应过剩主要因下游需求缺乏支撑，而非供应端增量明显。焦 煤平衡表已从过剩修正为平衡状态，但不会带来向上空间。关注国产矿 产量变化，预计全年度供应过剩问题因进口矿减量有所改善，但整体上 游库存仍预计垒库，对下半年原料市场偏空观点不变。 Q&A 最近中央财经委员会会议提到反内卷以及推动落后产 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Rongsheng Petrochemical Industry Overview - The Chinese petrochemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in capacity growth, with refining capacity nearing the 1 billion tons threshold, limiting new capacity additions. [2][3] - The global refining industry is undergoing consolidation, with European and American companies gradually shutting down some refineries. It is projected that from 2025 to 2030, global new capacity additions will average only 400,000 barrels per day. [2][3] - Aromatics capacity growth is also slowing, with a domestic compound growth rate of approximately 3%. The supply structure remains healthy, but Japanese and Korean facilities are reducing their operating rates due to economic inefficiencies. [2][4] Key Insights on Company Performance - In Q1 2025, all segments of Rongsheng Petrochemical reported profits, with refining generating 1.2 billion yuan. The PTA and polyester segments also showed profitability. [11] - The company is transitioning from a focus on refined oil products to chemical products, aiming to reduce refined oil yield to below 20% and enhance sales and production flexibility. [2][7][8] - The company holds an export quota of 3.7 million tons and is actively pursuing integrated upgrades to improve operational efficiency. [7][8] Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for refined oil has peaked, particularly for diesel and gasoline, which are significantly impacted by the rise of electric vehicles. By 2030, refined oil consumption is expected to gradually decline. [7] - The aromatics market is optimistic, with stable demand from PTA and downstream polyester sectors. The breakeven point for PX to naphtha is around $100 per ton, significantly better than the global average of $300 per ton. [9][10] Challenges and Risks - The tightening of policies has made it difficult to obtain new approvals for olefins, with the possibility of new permits being extremely low. [5] - The operating rate of Shandong's local refineries has dropped from 60% to 40%, influenced by peak refined oil demand and tightening tax policies, leading to a gradual market exit. [6] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could impact raw material supply and pricing, although the company has maintained stable production and sales rates. [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in high-performance resins and high-temperature new materials, with projects expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and 2026, respectively. [15] - Capital expenditure plans for the polyester and PTA segments are being adjusted, with no new projects planned as existing capacities have been fully utilized. [16] - The company is also exploring coal chemical projects in Inner Mongolia, pending national approval. [20] Financial Management - The major shareholder has been actively increasing their stake since 2024, with a total investment of 1.7 billion yuan across three buyback phases, aimed at enhancing investor confidence. [21] - The company aims to reduce its debt ratio to below 70% by improving operational cash flow, with expectations of further cash flow enhancement as projects are implemented. [22] Conclusion - Rongsheng Petrochemical is navigating a challenging environment marked by capacity constraints and shifting demand dynamics. The company is strategically repositioning itself towards chemical production while managing risks associated with geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes. The outlook for the aromatics market remains positive, supported by strong domestic demand and competitive advantages in production costs. [2][9][10]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission is accelerating the implementation of policies to address "involution" competition, focusing on six major industries including refining, steel, and coal chemical [2] - Specific measures for different industries will be introduced to resolve structural contradictions, with traditional overcapacity industries like refining and steel focusing on eliminating outdated capacity for optimization [2] - New energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries will emphasize self-regulation to guide rational investment and avoid vicious competition, ensuring orderly development despite their promising prospects [2] Group 2 - Shandong Province has introduced a plan with 20 high-value measures to stabilize foreign investment, aligning with national strategies while incorporating local characteristics [4] - The plan aims to expand autonomous opening in sectors like film production and telecommunications, encouraging foreign investment in biopharmaceuticals and clinical trials [4][5] - Shandong will enhance investment promotion through major events and targeted招商, while also establishing a mechanism for tracking significant foreign investment projects [5] Group 3 - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has been authorized to act as the RMB clearing bank in Turkey, facilitating the use of RMB for local settlements and transactions [6] - This development is expected to enhance bilateral trade and financial connectivity between China and Turkey, supporting initiatives like the Belt and Road [7] - The establishment of the clearing bank is a significant step for the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which is the largest Chinese commercial bank in Turkey [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. refinery capacity utilization has increased by 0.2 percentage points in the past week [1]