Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market trends, supply - demand situations, and price movements of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil in both domestic and international markets. It emphasizes the importance of factors such as weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, US soybean export demand, and domestic inventory changes in China for market dynamics [8][15][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Soybeans**: As of November 21, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1126.50 cents per bushel, up 0.36% from the previous week. The price was affected by factors like NOPA's higher - than - expected US soybean crush in October and USDA's report of soybean sales to China. The US soybean harvest rate was 96%, slightly lower than historical and five - year average levels. The supply was expected to be sufficient, but the cumulative year - on - year decline in exports widened [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean meal prices fell. The 12 - contract closed at $315.8 per short - ton, down 1.83%, and the 01 - contract at $319.8 per short - ton, down 1.20%. DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3012 yuan per ton, down 2.59%. The decline was due to factors such as USDA's soybean sales report to China and high domestic inventory. Spot basis fluctuated slightly higher [13][15]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil prices rose slightly. The 12 - contract closed at 50.28 cents per pound, up 0.26%, and the 01 - contract at 50.61 cents per pound, up 0.26%. DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8190 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. The decline was affected by falling prices of related domestic vegetable oils and high domestic inventory. Spot basis remained volatile [20][23]. 2. Production Area Weather - **Brazil**: In the past week (11.14 - 11.21), rainfall was slightly lower than normal, and temperatures in the southern part were lower. In the next week (11.23 - 11.30), both rainfall and temperatures in the southern part are expected to be lower than normal [25][27]. - **Argentina**: In the past week (11.14 - 11.21), rainfall and temperatures were normal. In the next week (11.23 - 11.30), rainfall is expected to be lower than normal, and temperatures higher [33][35]. 3. International Supply and Demand - **US Soybeans**: - **Crop Conditions**: As of November 16, the harvest rate was 95%, lower than last year's 98% and the five - year average of 96% [40]. - **Export Inspection & Sales**: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline widened. The 25/26 annual export sales met expectations, and the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed [41]. - **Soybean Crush**: In August 2025, the crush volume was 5940000 tons, up 18.19% year - on - year. As of October, the cumulative crush volume in the 25/26 season was 426 million bushels, up 12.8% year - on - year [43]. - **D4 RINs Price**: As of November 21, it was 100.5 cents, down 0.75 cents from November 14 [51]. - **Other News**: The US Department of Energy reorganized, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [53]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: - **Yield Forecast**: Various institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 season range from 167.683455 million tons to 178.5 million tons [55]. - **Sowing Progress**: As of November 15, the sowing rate was 69.0% according to CONAB. Different states had different sowing progress and crop conditions [55][56]. - **Export Sales**: Anec raised the November export forecast to 4.71 million tons. As of the second week of November, the cumulative export in 2025 was 102.91 million tons, up 7.49% year - on - year [61]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of November 21, the premium quotes showed mixed trends [63]. - **Soybean Crush Profit & Volume**: The crush profit rose this week. In September 2025, the crush volume was 4.144 million tons, down 11.05% year - on - year [66][69]. - **Inventory**: As of September, the oil mill's soybean inventory was 14.39 million tons, up 12.36% year - on - year; the soybean oil inventory was 526000 tons, up 52.27% year - on - year; and the soybean meal inventory was 2.52 million tons, down 2.79% year - on - year [71]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: - **Sowing Progress**: As of November 20, the sowing rate was 25%. The sowing area forecast for the 25/26 season was lowered [74]. - **Farmer Sales**: The weekly sales of farmers increased. As of the 46th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 82%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 6.2% [78]. - **Export Sales**: In October 2025, the soybean export volume was 1.296 million tons, up 1217.5% year - on - year. The export volumes of soybean meal and soybean oil also increased [81]. - **Soybean Crush Profit & Volume**: The crush profit fell this week. In October 2025, the crush volume was 4.036 million tons, down 2.66% year - on - year [85][87]. - **Inventory**: As of November 1, the oil mill's soybean inventory was 2798823 tons, up 10.07% year - on - year; the soybean oil inventory was 296624 tons, down 14.94% year - on - year; and the soybean meal inventory was 1050328 tons, up 7.44% year - on - year [89]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand - **Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: - **Import Procurement**: In October 2025, China imported 9.4025 million tons of genetically modified soybeans. As of October, the cumulative import was 95.1637 million tons, up 6.86% year - on - year [94]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the port inventory was 9.926 million tons, down 408000 tons week - on - week; the oil mill inventory was 7.4771 million tons, down 142400 tons week - on - week [95]. - **Arrival and Crush**: The arrival volume decreased, while the crush volume and operating rate increased [100]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume decreased this week [103]. - **Production and Apparent Consumption**: Both production and apparent consumption increased [104][106]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the commercial inventory was 1.1485 million tons, down 0.87 million tons week - on - week [108]. - **Soybean Meal Supply and Demand**: - **Production and Apparent Consumption**: Both production and apparent consumption increased [111]. - **Inventory**: The oil mill's inventory decreased, while the feed mill's physical inventory days increased [113]. - **Trading and Pick - up**: Both trading volume and pick - up volume increased [116]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses in pig - raising and piglet - purchasing increased, and the pig price and pig - grain ratio decreased [118]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 21, the registered warehouse receipts on the DCE were 40357 lots [120]. 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spreads - **Basis, Monthly Spreads, and Variety Spreads**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spreads of soybean oil and soybean meal, and variety spreads such as soybean oil - palm oil and rapeseed oil - soybean oil [124][129][132]. - **FOB Quotes**: Provided FOB quotes for soybean oil, soybean meal from different regions [137][139][140]. - **CFTC Positions**: Showed the net long positions of managed funds in CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil [142][143].

近日，厦门证监局对华福证券出具警示函，因其作为主办券商在发行推荐中未勤勉尽责，未能查明厦门 市江平生物基质技术股份有限公司（简称"江平生物"）在定向发行说明书中存在的财务造假情形。 厦门证监局指出，华福证券上述行为违反了《非上市公众公司监督管理办法》，并决定对华福证券采取 出具警示函的监督管理措施。厦门证监局表示，华福证券应充分关注挂牌公司财务内控有效性，健全挂 牌公司持续督导及定向发行推荐业务内控制度，落实勤勉尽责要求，切实提高执业质量水平。 来源：厦门证监局 此前，厦门证监局已对江平生物相关负责人下达了行政监管措施决定书，其中披露有关江平生物财务造 假的具体情况。 | 震引号 | bm56000001/2025-00010790 | 分类 | 行政监管措施行政执法 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布机构 | | 发文日期 | 2025年09月12日 | | 名称 | 厦门证监局关于对张慧德、祁伟、夏长平、戴燕芳、陈剧、文美、场弦、林明月采取出国警示退盟的决定 | | | | 文 号 | 中国证券监督管理委员会见门监管局行政监管陆线决定书(2025)21号 | 主题词 | | ...

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/11/24 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | 指标 | | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 78 | -5 | 1600 | == == | | ===== 19/20 == | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 日照 | 38 | | 1200 800 400 | | | | | | | | | | -12 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -12 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 | 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 | 11 ...

Market Overview - The agricultural processing sector experienced a decline of 0.27% on November 24, with Huazi Industrial leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the agricultural processing sector showed varied performance, with Jingliang Holdings (000505) leading with a 10.00% increase, closing at 8.91 [1] - Other notable gainers included Shen Gen Holdings (000019) with a 3.35% increase and ST Langyuan (300175) with a 2.70% increase [1] - Conversely, stocks like San Si Si (600191) and Jinlongyu (300999) faced declines of 4.68% and 2.43%, respectively [2] Trading Volume and Value - Jingliang Holdings recorded a trading volume of 372,600 shares and a transaction value of 321 million yuan [1] - Jinlongyu had a trading volume of 258,800 shares with a transaction value of 784 million yuan, indicating significant market activity despite the decline [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural processing sector saw a net inflow of 849,300 yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 3,031,770 yuan [2][3] - Notably, Jingliang Holdings attracted a net inflow of 101 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating strong interest despite the overall sector decline [3]

01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 区间震荡，关注南美天气 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 【粕类周报】 粕类：区间震荡，关注南美天气 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）USDA11月供需报告将2025/26年度美豆单产由53.5蒲式耳/英亩下调至53蒲式耳/英亩，将压榨维持25.55亿蒲不变，将出口由16.85亿蒲下调至16.35亿 蒲，结转由3亿蒲下调至2.9亿蒲，利多不及预期。（2）根据CONAB数据，预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1.776亿吨。截至11月15日，巴西大豆播种率为 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 69.0%，上周为58.4%，去年同期为73.8%，五年均值为67.2%。阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，截至11月13日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Malay palm oil has increasing production and decreasing exports, facing significant short - term pressure, and should be treated bearishly [2] - Rapeseed oil is expected to change the supply shortage situation due to the supply expectations of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and there may be a catch - up decline compared to last year's trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil (2025/11/21)**: Tianjin price is 8,660 (down 200 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,540 (down 200), Huangpu is 8,470 (down 200) [1] - **First - grade soybean oil (2025/11/21)**: Tianjin price is 8,330 (down 100 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,470 (down 100), Huangpu is 8,520 (down 100) [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil (2025/11/21)**: Zhangjiagang price is 10,170 (up 100 from 2025/11/20), Wuhan is 10,220 (up 100), Chengdu is 10,450 (up 100) [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Bean - palm main contract spread (2025/11/21)**: - 360, up 62 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Rapeseed - bean main contract spread (2025/11/21)**: 1,626, up 71 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 50, down 450 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 24,625, down 2 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 4,033, down 98 from 2025/11/20 [1] 3.3 Production and Export - **Malaysian palm oil production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased by 10.32% compared to the same period last month [1] - **Malaysian palm oil export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 12.8%. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 10% [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic palm oil**: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 65.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [1] - **Domestic soybean oil**: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 114.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed oil import**: The import volume in November is expected to be 22.6 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2] 3.5 US Soybean Forecast - The 2025/26 US soybean production forecast is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit area is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 0.304 billion bushels [1] - The 2025/26 US soybean export forecast is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly affected by the enhanced export competitiveness of South American soybeans and the slowdown of international procurement rhythm [1]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 30 products experiencing price increases, 17 seeing declines, and 3 remaining stable in mid-November 2025 compared to early November 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices increased by 20.5 yuan per ton (0.7%), while ordinary medium plates decreased by 18.1 yuan per ton (-0.5%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, electrolytic copper rose by 427.1 yuan per ton (0.5%), while zinc ingots fell by 32.9 yuan per ton (-0.1%) [4]. - Chemical products saw significant price fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 81.6 yuan per ton (10.4%) and methanol decreasing by 35.9 yuan per ton (-1.7%) [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices dropped by 55.8 yuan per ton (-1.3%), while gasoline prices increased by 50.3 yuan per ton (0.6%) [4]. - Coal prices showed an upward trend, with ordinary mixed coal increasing by 30.5 yuan per ton (5.0%) and Shanxi premium mixed coal rising by 33.6 yuan per ton (4.2%) [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, corn prices rose by 22.2 yuan per ton (1.0%), while cotton prices fell by 37.0 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [5]. - In agricultural production materials, urea prices increased by 28.1 yuan per ton (1.7%), and compound fertilizer prices rose by 67.3 yuan per ton (2.1%) [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses a wide range of products across 31 provinces, involving over 2000 wholesalers and dealers, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the market [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications to ensure accurate data [9].

Core Insights - The walnut industry in Shandong has seen significant growth, with a planting area of 3.1 million acres and an annual output of 138,000 tons, generating a comprehensive output value exceeding 5 billion yuan [1][3] - The walnut industry in Luonan County contributes nearly half of the total walnut industry output value in Shandong, reaching 2.45 billion yuan in 2024 [1][3] Industry Overview - Luonan County has established a nationwide walnut procurement network, sourcing over 50,000 tons of walnuts from various major production areas across China [2] - The walnut has a long history in Shandong, dating back to the Han Dynasty, and has become a significant agricultural product, earning the title of "China's Walnut Capital" in 2010 [3] Technological Advancements - The introduction of rare walnut varieties, such as the red kernel walnut, has enhanced the quality and marketability of Shandong walnuts [3][4] - Companies are innovating by utilizing walnut shells for various products, including cat litter and organic fertilizers, showcasing the comprehensive use of walnut resources [4][5] Product Development - The walnut mooncake has emerged as a popular local delicacy, highlighting the diversification of walnut products in the region [5][6] - New products like chocolate-coated walnut snacks have been developed, indicating a trend towards innovative food products in the walnut industry [7] Export and Global Reach - The walnut products from Shandong have begun to penetrate international markets, with significant exports to countries like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan [9][11] - The establishment of the Northwest Walnut Logistics Park has facilitated the processing, storage, and sale of walnut products, enhancing the region's export capabilities [11][12] Future Prospects - The brand value of "Luonan Walnut" is projected to reach 3 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting the growth potential of the walnut industry [11] - Companies in the region are aiming for a transformation towards a billion-level food industry, leveraging logistics and e-commerce to expand their market reach [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Guangdong and Guangxi is fostering rural revitalization through the "Ten Thousand Enterprises Prosperity in Ten Thousand Villages" initiative, exemplified by the successful project of Ningming Liguang Chenpi Xingyou Teng [1][2][10]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Ten Thousand Enterprises Prosperity in Ten Thousand Villages" initiative aims to enhance rural development and promote regional coordination [4][5][6]. - Ningming Liguang Chenpi Xingyou Teng project has been recognized as a typical project under this initiative, showcasing the effective collaboration between Guangdong's Xinhui and Guangxi's Ningming [9][10][23]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The project leverages the unique resources of both regions, with Xinhui known for its Chenpi (dried tangerine peel) and Ningming recognized for its Xingyou Teng (a type of vine) [12][14]. - By May 20, 2025, the project is expected to produce its first batch of Chenpi Xingyou Teng products, contributing to local economic growth [18]. - As of June 2025, the planting area for Xingyou Teng in Ningming has reached 46,000 acres, benefiting over 10,000 farmers with an average income increase of 40,000 yuan per household [20][21]. Group 3: Future Development - The company plans to continue expanding product research and development while establishing a demonstration base for Xingyou Teng cultivation in Ningming [26][27]. - The goal is to promote the scale development of the industry and enhance its presence in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and nationwide [28][30].

Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port is focusing on institutional openness to align with global high-standard economic and trade rules, aiming to become a new high ground for reform and opening up in China [1] Group 1: Institutional Openness - Hainan is actively integrating into the international economic and trade rule system, implementing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with high quality [1] - The province has introduced over 30 institutional measures that have been effectively implemented, aligning its policies with RCEP rules [1] Group 2: Unique Pilot Measures - Hainan has two unique pilot measures: "temporary export repair" and "temporary import repair," which have shown significant results, including tax exemptions [1] - By September 2025, Hainan enterprises are expected to utilize the "temporary import repair" for over 100 aircraft, with a total value exceeding 67 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Open Innovation Trials - The "remanufactured product import pilot" has achieved breakthroughs, with Hainan enterprises importing two remanufactured gearboxes for the first time in 2024 [2] - Reforms to eliminate local certification service requirements have attracted seven foreign certification agencies, boosting exports of local specialty products [2] Group 4: Future Goals - Hainan aims to become a significant gateway for China's new era of opening up, aligning with international high-level economic and trade rules [2]