Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][42]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.06% from July 18 to July 31, 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 0.05 percentage points [3][10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with fisheries, aquaculture, planting, and feed sectors rising by 2.04%, 1.79%, 1.6%, and 0.64% respectively, while agricultural products processing and animal health sectors saw declines of 0.74% and 3.21% [11][12]. - Approximately 57% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating a favorable market sentiment [12]. Industry Data Summary - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three-breed pigs decreased from 14.37 CNY/kg to 14.21 CNY/kg between July 18 and July 31, 2025 [21]. - The cost of corn was reported at 2402.02 CNY/ton, showing a slight decline, while soybean meal prices increased to 2984 CNY/ton [22]. - Profitability for self-bred pigs was 43.85 CNY/head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 116.78 CNY/head [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks rose to 2.57 CNY/chick, while egg-laying chicks averaged 3.85 CNY/chick [28]. - The average price for broiler chickens increased to 6.83 CNY/kg, with a slight improvement in profitability to -0.43 CNY/chick [31]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp was 22.69 CNY/kg, while carp saw a slight increase to 15.82 CNY/kg [33]. Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and nine other departments released a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, focusing on optimizing supply, innovating distribution, and activating market demand [35]. - Among the companies reporting mid-year results, Haida Group achieved a revenue of 588.31 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, with a net profit of 26.39 billion CNY, up 24.16% [36]. Company Insights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (002714): A leading pig farming company with cost and scale advantages [43]. - Haida Group (002311): A top feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [43]. - Lihua Co. (300761): A leading yellow feather chicken farming company with integrated advantages [43]. - Reap Bio (300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [43]. - Zhongchong Co. (002891): A leading pet food company with strong domestic growth prospects [43].

Core Insights - The event hosted by Shanghai Jiao Tong University focused on the emerging "single economy," highlighting its potential to reshape consumption patterns and create a trillion-level economic ecosystem [1][3]. Group 1: Single Economy Overview - The single population in China has exceeded 240 million, significantly impacting consumption behaviors and driving the growth of a trillion-level economy [3]. - The "eight one" industry map includes: one-person meals (takeout and small portion prepared dishes), one-person usage (mini home appliances), one-pet companionship (pet economy), one-person entertainment (short dramas and concerts), one-person living (demand for small apartments), one-person travel, one-person beauty (rapid growth in light medical beauty and cosmetics), and one-person companionship (rise of AI and virtual companionship), with an overall market size reaching 8 trillion [3]. Group 2: Emotional Consumption Trends - The short drama market is particularly notable, with a market size exceeding 50 billion in 2024, surpassing China's film box office, and expected to exceed 100 billion by 2027 [5]. - The proportion of paying users for short dramas increased from 40.5% in January 2024 to 48% in February 2025, indicating a strong trend towards emotional value in consumption [5]. - A new marketing strategy for the single economy, SEE (Scene, Emotion, Engagement), emphasizes creating single scenarios, conveying emotional resonance, and enhancing interactive experiences [5]. Group 3: Pet Economy Insights - The pet economy is becoming increasingly significant within the single economy, transitioning from a "guard dog" role to being viewed as family members [6]. - The number of dogs and cats in China has surpassed 120 million, with over 10 million new pets born in 2023 [6]. - The pet economy is valued at 350 billion, with an annual growth rate exceeding 20%, and pet food accounting for 48% of this market [6]. Group 4: Future Trends in Pet Economy - Five future trends in the pet economy include: premiumization and segmentation, smart and emotional products, health ecosystem formation, personalization and experiential offerings, and digital media dominance [8]. Group 5: EMBA Program Insights - The EMBA program at Shanghai Jiao Tong University emphasizes global vision and innovation capabilities, providing comprehensive support and resource connections for entrepreneurs [9]. - The continuous growth of the single population and changing social attitudes are expected to drive rapid growth in the single economy over the next five years, making it a crucial engine for domestic demand [11].

Core Insights - The rise of "pet rap" reflects a trend where pet owners project their social pressures onto their pets, using anthropomorphism to address emotional deficiencies [1][3] - The "pet economy" is expanding as owners increasingly invest in their pets, driven by anxiety and a desire to provide better living conditions for their pets [3][4] Industry Trends - The trend of anthropomorphism is particularly evident in summer, where pet owners are willing to spend on cooling products and services to protect their pets from heat [4][7] - Over 70% of pet owners reported taking extra cooling measures for their pets during summer, indicating a strong willingness to spend on pet care [4] - The pet consumption market in urban China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [4] Product and Service Development - The market for pet cooling products has diversified, ranging from affordable ice mats to high-end pet air conditioners, catering to various consumer needs [8][10] - Basic cooling products like ice silk mats and gel pads have seen a 230% increase in sales, while high-end items like smart temperature-controlled pet beds are in high demand [10] - Summer services such as pet ice baths and cooling SPAs are also gaining popularity, with some services fully booked weeks in advance [11][13] Market Dynamics - The pet cooling market is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan in the next three years, reflecting a growing emphasis on pet quality of life [13] - However, there are concerns about irrational consumption patterns emerging from the emotional attachment of pet owners, suggesting a need for a shift from emotional to rational spending [13][16] - The industry is encouraged to focus on practical products that meet actual pet health needs rather than succumbing to trends driven by anxiety [18]

Group 1: Industry Trends - The pet industry is experiencing a trend of mergers and acquisitions, with companies integrating resources to enhance scale and influence, reflecting the professionalization and concentration of the pet economy [4] - Leading companies are accelerating mergers and capital operations to expand market share, with significant investments flowing into the pet sector [4] - Domestic companies are globalizing their supply chains by establishing overseas factories and expanding markets to cope with tariff pressures [4] Group 2: Policy and Standards - Policies are being continuously improved at both national and local levels to support industry standardization and innovation, including the release of over ten pet-related standards by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [5] - Local governments are implementing special policies to promote the pet economy, such as pilot programs for pet transportation services on high-speed trains [5] Group 3: Specialization and Technology - The industry is advancing towards data-driven, technological, and specialized development, with increased collaboration between academia and industry [6] - New initiatives include the establishment of a canine and feline behavioral big data center and the launch of an AI model for pet medical services [6] Group 4: Cross-Industry Involvement - Non-pet industry giants are entering the pet market through business extensions or collaborations, diversifying pet consumption scenarios [7] - Examples include the launch of a pet brand by a popular snack company and a delivery service specifically for pets by a ride-hailing company [7] Group 5: Notable Events - Significant events in the first half of 2025 include the establishment of a pet economic industrial park in Beijing and the opening of a new pet food retail brand in Shanghai [9][13] - The first pet-related IPO in the Chinese animal health sector occurred with a company listing on NASDAQ [10] - The establishment of the first undergraduate program in pet studies at a Chinese university marks a milestone in the industry's educational development [6][38]

Core Insights - The pet economy in China is experiencing strong growth, with the market size expected to reach 8,114 billion yuan by 2025, driven by emotional consumption rather than just functional needs [26][27] - The trend of traveling with pets is becoming mainstream, with airlines and high-speed rail services expanding their pet-friendly offerings [5][8] Industry Developments - Eight airlines, including China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, have upgraded their "pet in cabin" services, allowing passengers to travel with pets in the cabin [5][7] - High-speed rail pet transportation services have expanded to cover 25 stations and 38 train routes, indicating a growing acceptance of pets in travel [8] Consumer Trends - A new type of hotel featuring "pet companionship" services is gaining popularity, allowing guests to stay with their pets and offering unique experiences [10] - Smart pet care devices are increasingly seen as necessities, with significant growth in demand for products like smart litter boxes and health monitoring collars [11][20] Market Growth - The pet market in China is projected to grow to 7,013 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.3% increase from the previous year [26] - The emotional connection between pet owners and their pets is becoming a key driver of market growth, with 61.5% of users willing to pay for their pets' emotional well-being [20][27] Product Innovations - Innovative products such as smart pet dryers and automatic feeding devices are seeing high demand, with some products experiencing over 40% sales growth in international markets [22][24] - The trend towards smart and personalized pet products is reshaping the pet care landscape, indicating a shift towards more sophisticated consumer preferences [26][27]

Industry Overview - The pet industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with over a thousand attendees at recent industry conferences indicating strong interest and investment [1] - The pet consumption scale continues to expand, with a projected domestic pet consumption of 77.375 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8.84% year-on-year increase [2] - The number of pet-related enterprises in China has reached 4.8202 million, with 910,000 new registrations in 2025, showcasing the industry's strong attractiveness [2] Market Dynamics - The perception of pets as family members is driving consumers to invest more in pet care, shifting demand from basic needs to emotional companionship [2] - The market penetration for pet products in China has significant room for growth, with an estimated 80% potential increase in new users over the next 10 to 20 years [2] - The industry is witnessing a transformation with new entrants and innovative business models emerging, indicating a redefinition of consumer needs across the entire supply chain [2] Corporate Strategies - Several A-share listed companies are entering the pet industry, including investments in smart pet appliances and digital supply chain management [3] - Companies like Yungli Co. and Huylon New Materials are strategically investing in pet-related ventures, indicating a trend of cross-industry collaboration [3] - The integration of AI and digital platforms is becoming crucial for companies to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to market changes [8][10] Regional Development - Local governments are increasingly prioritizing the pet economy, with regions like Henan's Luohe aiming to become a major hub for the pet industry, targeting a 10 billion yuan pet economy demonstration zone [5] - Luohe's pet industry park is leveraging local food production capabilities, with proximity to major food companies providing a strong raw material advantage [5][6] - The establishment of comprehensive supply chains in pet industry parks is enhancing competitiveness and fostering innovation [6][7] Technological Advancements - The pet supply chain is undergoing significant digital transformation, with companies adopting AI and digital management systems to streamline operations [8][9] - Collaborations between companies, such as the partnership between Guibao Pet and Baisheng Software, are focused on enhancing digital capabilities in retail [8] - The overall efficiency of the pet supply chain is expected to improve as more companies embrace digital transformation, leading to higher industry standards and collaboration [10]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first half of 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 4.3% in June [2][3] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by increased working days and the delayed effect of tariff suspension on exports [3][4] - The operating income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while the profit margin decreased to 5.15%, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on enterprise profits [3][4] Fiscal Data Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4% to 141,271 billion yuan [6][9] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4% to 19,442 billion yuan, but expenditure surged by 30% to 46,273 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in fiscal spending [6][10] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year, reflecting a robust fiscal support environment [10] Fund Research - All major indices in the equity market were raised, with public fund scale surpassing 34 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [12][14] - The week saw a net inflow of 19.22 billion yuan into the ETF market, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs, while stock ETFs experienced net outflows [14][15] - The issuance of new funds decreased, with 23 new funds launched, raising 276.61 billion yuan, reflecting a slight contraction in market activity [14][15] Industry Research - The paper industry is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" sentiments, with a 5.07% increase in the paper sector from July 1 to 25, 2025 [16][20] - The third batch of national subsidies amounting to 69 billion yuan has been allocated to support the consumption of old goods, which is expected to stabilize furniture product sales [20] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind, indicating sector-specific performance variations [16][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the growing trend of emotional consumption, driven by consumers' desire for personalized and emotional experiences, which presents new growth opportunities for the economy [1][4] - The market for emotional consumption is projected to exceed 20 trillion yuan, indicating significant potential for this sector [1][2] - The rise of the "accompanying economy," particularly in pet ownership, is highlighted, with the urban pet consumption market expected to surpass 300 billion yuan by 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - The younger generation is increasingly seeking emotional connections and experiences over mere material possessions, which is reshaping consumption patterns [2][3] - Businesses must focus on delivering high-quality services and understanding consumer emotions to succeed in the emotional consumption market, rather than relying solely on emotional value as a selling point [2][3] - The need for a clearer regulatory framework and consumer protection measures is essential for the sustainable development of emotional consumption, as it often lacks quantifiable standards [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic pet supplies and food market, leveraging quality overseas customer resources and global production capacity advantages. It is actively developing its own brands to create a second growth curve. The company experienced a revenue turning point in Q2 2023 due to inventory replenishment and is expected to see revenue and profit resonance in 2024 as it focuses on its own brands [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Yuanfei Pet, was established in 2004 and initially focused on OEM/ODM business, primarily in pet leashes and snacks. It has formed deep partnerships with major international retailers like Walmart and PetSmart, with significant revenue from the US and Europe [14]. - The company has a diversified production capacity across multiple locations, including bases in Wenzhou and Cambodia, and is expanding its production capabilities [14]. Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is growing at a CAGR of 10.1%, outpacing the global growth rate of 4.6%. In contrast, the pet supplies market in China is growing at a slower rate of 2.9% due to price wars among domestic brands and a slowdown in dog consumption growth [2]. 2B Business - The company's 2B business benefits from a strong production layout in Southeast Asia, deep partnerships with leading international channels, and technological advantages, including the development of over 8,000 new products annually [3]. Brand Business - The company is building its own sales channels and has launched three proprietary brands: Pikapoo, Haloway, and Legend Elf, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth. The brands focus on high-quality ingredients and unique selling propositions tailored to domestic pet needs [4]. - Recent sales data shows substantial growth for these brands on platforms like Douyin, with Pikapoo achieving significant sales rankings in its category [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.633 billion, 2.107 billion, and 2.540 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 187 million, 225 million, and 259 million yuan. The EPS for 2025-2027 is estimated at 0.98, 1.18, and 1.36 yuan [1][9]. - The report indicates a PE ratio of 20, 16, and 14 for the years 2025-2027 based on the closing price of 19.15 yuan on July 28, 2025 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer behavior is shifting towards different spending patterns [4]. - The phenomenon of consumption upgrading and demand migration is identified as the largest business opportunity [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a significant revenue increase. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7]. - **Pet Economy**: Despite declining birth rates, spending on pets is increasing, with brands like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China seeing strong sales [10][11]. The pet healthcare sector is also expanding rapidly [12][13]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a substantial growth potential for similar products in China [14][15][16]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness are driving the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China [19][20]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, such as collagen supplements and home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that beauty is both an economic and therapeutic necessity [22]. - **Outdoor and Leisure**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in China experiencing rapid sales growth, reflecting a desire for leisure activities despite economic constraints [22]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and unique consumer goods, are gaining popularity [23][24]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances is rising as younger generations seek to save time in cooking and household chores [27][28]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The article suggests that while many perceive the current market as a "cold winter," the true winners are those who can identify and invest in counter-cyclical opportunities [31].