铜周报：基本面支撑，铜价仍存韧性 2025-6-9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 供给端：当前铜矿加工费处于历史低位，铜矿供应持续偏紧。截至6月6日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-43美元/吨，4月底以来进口铜精 矿粗炼费（TC）持续位于持稳于-43美元/吨左右。5月电解铜产量113.83万吨，环比增加1.12%，同比增加12.86%，国内精炼铜产量 稳定增加。 需求端：旺季过后下游需求转淡，截至6月5日，SMM电解铜制杆周度开工率环比下滑至74.87%，环比下滑1.03个百分点，铜价运 行依然坚挺，压制下游备货欲望。淡季来临市场预期悲观，下游铜管、铜板带开工率下滑，铜箔企业开工率小幅增长。 库存：截至6月6日，上海期货交易所铜库存10.74万吨，周环比1.52%。截止6月5日，国内铜社会库存14.88万吨，较节前5月29日 累库1.01万吨，环比 ...

| 增持主体名称 | | | 江西铜业集团有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 控股股东或实控人 | | | | | | √是 | ?否 | | | | | | 增持主体身份 | | | | 控股股东或实控人的一致行动人 | | | | | | ?是 | ?否 | | 直接持股 | | | 5%以上股东 | | | ?是 | ?否 | | | | | | 董事、监事和高级管理人员 | | | | | | | | | | ?是 | ?否 | | A | | 股：1,205,479,110 | | 股 | | | | | | | | | 增持前持股数量 | | | | | | | | | | | | | H | | 股：308,457,000 | | 股 | | | | | | | | | 增持前持股比例 | | | | | | | | | | | | | （占总股本） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 二、增持计划的实施结果 | | | ...

美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道指跌0.25%，纳指跌0.83%，标普500指数跌0.53%。 热门科技股多数下跌，苹果、英伟达跌超1%。金属原材料与采矿涨幅居前，泛美白银涨超7%，美洲白银公司涨超4%，南方铜业涨超2%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.54%，热门中概股多数上涨。 值得注意的是，特斯拉跌超14%，盘后仍跌超3%。特斯拉中国5月新能源乘用车批发销量为61662辆，同比下降15%，同月特斯拉在欧洲多国的销量暴跌。 据了解，当前美国的载人航天活动极大依赖美国太空探索技术公司的"龙"飞船。 不仅如此，马斯克还 直接在社交媒体爆猛料，称特朗普涉嫌爱泼斯坦性犯罪案，这就是美国政府没有将爱泼斯坦档案公布的真正原因。 马斯克@特朗普的社交媒体账号发帖称："是时候扔出重磅炸弹了：@realDonaldTrump出现在爱泼斯坦的档案里。这才是这些档案至今未被公开的真正原 因。祝你今天愉快，DJT！" 此外， 特朗普在白宫对记者们表示，他对马斯克"很失望"，因为马斯克比其他人都了解"大而美"法案的内容是怎么回事，却"突然之间"掉过头来反对法 案。接着马斯克迅速发帖"反击"，称特朗普说谎、他之前根本没 ...

Group 1 - RBC Capital Markets analysts noted that copper inflow into the U.S. has supported a price surge of approximately 11% since early 2025, outperforming global copper prices [1] - North American copper stocks have risen about 9% year-to-date, with Capstone Mining Corp and HudBay Minerals identified as the most favored stocks in the sector [1] - The announcement of a potential investigation into new tariffs on copper imports by President Trump in February has contributed to the increase in copper prices, as copper is essential for various products from electric vehicles to power grids [1] Group 2 - The U.S. copper imports totaled over 123,000 tons in March, significantly higher than 58,000 tons in February and 76,000 tons in January [1] - RBC strategists indicated signs of weakening demand and supply for copper, suggesting that if tariffs are not continued, it could act as a negative catalyst for prices [1] - Short-term risks to copper prices are highlighted due to the potential continuation of Trump's aggressive trade agenda and a slowdown in the construction industry during the summer [2]

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 2025 年 06 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 铜：库存持续走低，支撑价格 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,170 | -0.04% | 78570 | 0.51% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,708 | 0.61% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 64,095 | -47,287 | 193,023 | -2,191 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 27,589 | 13,389 | 283,000 | -1,146 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 31,687 | -246 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 138,000 | -3,350 | 60.36% ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Jinxun Resources Co., Ltd. is preparing to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, positioning itself as the fifth largest cathode copper producer in China and the only Chinese company ranked among the top five in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia [1][2]. Company Overview - JinXun Resources primarily produces cathode copper and is projected to produce approximately 16,000 tons in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and 5,000 tons in Zambia by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 639 million yuan, 677 million yuan, and 1.771 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, respectively [3]. Industry Context - Cathode copper is a core raw material for copper processing, widely used in consumer electronics, infrastructure, construction, and transportation [2]. - Global copper reserves have increased from approximately 870 million tons in 2020 to an estimated 980 million tons by 2024, with significant reserves located in Chile, Peru, Australia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2]. - The global demand for cathode copper is expected to grow from 27.8 million tons in 2025 to 30.5 million tons by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.3% [2]. Financial Performance - JinXun Resources reported a gross profit margin of 32.04% for its cathode copper business in the previous year [3]. - The concentration of sales from the top five customers has decreased from 79.9% in 2022 to 56.9% in 2024, indicating a diversification in customer base [3]. Management Background - The actual controller of JinXun Resources, Yuan Rong, has a unique background, having worked as a ticket seller and truck driver before founding the company in 2010 [4][6]. - Yuan Rong has received multiple awards for his entrepreneurial achievements, including the "Outstanding Entrepreneur" title in Kunming High-tech Zone [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Option: short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The copper concentrate processing fee remains low, and the negotiation between domestic smelters and overseas mines continues. The probability of a sharp rise in processing fees in the future is limited. Although there are concerns about the demand in the second half of the year, the probability of a significant weakening of demand is low due to the relatively stable outlook of the power sector. It is recommended to buy copper on dips for hedging, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On June 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,920 yuan/ton and closed at 77,650 yuan/ton, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 77,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,180 yuan/ton, a 0.50% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: On the first day after the holiday, downstream consumption was weak, and the procurement sentiment declined. The price of electrolytic copper decreased during the day, and the price of low - cost goods is expected to show double - digit transactions today [2]. - **Important Information Summary**: The OECD lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%). Trump's administration raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting on the 4th. The US made a demanding list in tariff negotiations with Vietnam. The EU did not receive a letter from the US for the "best trade offer". Fed officials had different views on inflation and interest rate cuts. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since last October [3]. Supply - Side Information - **Mine End**: Panama approved the maintenance plan for Cobre Panamá copper mine but not its restart, which may take 3 - 6 months. Teck Resources' Carmen de Andacollo copper mine in Chile will be shut down for about a month due to a mechanical failure, but it is expected to have no significant impact on the 2025 output forecast [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Chile's copper production in April increased by 13.5% year - on - year to 463,639 tons. The US may impose tariffs on copper imports, but future copper investments may get tariff exemptions [5]. Demand - Side Information - **Consumption**: In 2025, China's power grid plans to invest 650 billion yuan, with 140.8 billion yuan completed in the first four months, a 14.6% year - on - year increase. The real estate market is in a slump, with investment down 10.3% from January to April. The automobile industry is divided, with traditional vehicle production down 4.6% and new energy vehicle production up 48%. The home appliance industry has high export dependence, and the electronics field may be a new highlight [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,724 tons to 31,404 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 3 was 153,000 tons, a change of 14,300 tons from the previous week [6][7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, recommend buying on dips for hedging in the range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Suspended [8]. - **Option**: short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [8]. Data Table - The table shows copper price, basis, inventory, warehouse receipt, spread, and arbitrage data from June 4, 2025, compared with the previous day, last week, and a month ago [29][31][32].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View -中美互征关税缓和引导抢出口预期，国内电解铜社会库存量处于低位，但传统消费淡季来临，或使沪铜价格涨跌两难，建议投资者短线轻仓逢低试多主力合约，关注74600 - 76600附近支撑位及78500 - 80000附近压力位，伦铜在9000 - 9800附近支撑位及9600 - 9800附近压力位，美铜在4.3 - 4.5附近支撑位及5.0 - 5.5附近压力位 [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - 美国7月到期以短期为主国债规模分别为1.28 - 1.46万亿美元，美债集中到期或引发流动性冲击；5月ISM制造业PMI为49.5，低于预期和前值，因特朗普政府不确定的关税政策引发消费端通胀反弹担忧，使美联储降息预期时点仍在9/12月 [3][4] Upstream - 紫金矿业旗下莫阿·卡库拉铜矿5月28日因矿震暂停地下深矿；印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司8月17日被准许6个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更高出口税；铜陵有色位于厄瓜多尔拉铁拉多铜矿二期6万吨产能或于26年下半年投产；巨龙铜矿新扩建二期200万吨/日扩建工程或于25年底投产；ACC Metals的硫化铜矿扩建项目将于2026年一季度投产，初期年产量为2.5万吨；国内6月铜精矿生产（进口）量环比或有增减，中国铜精矿进口指数为负且较上周升高；国内废铜进口窗口打开，但欧洲高品质废铜被限制出口，中国进口商仅能采购铜米或黄铜，中美贸易争端影响使贸易商尚未恢复直接进口美国废铜，国内电解铜与光亮及老化废铜价差为负或削弱废铜经济性，国内废铜6月生产（进口）量环比或减少；嘉能可位于菲律宾的PASAR铜冶炼厂已停产，位于智利的阿尔托诺特冶炼厂35万吨阳极铜产能因冶炼烧炉问题暂停生产至6月，紫金3.anov = Ikabul冶炼厂或于25年6月建成投产，年产60万吨阴极铜；国内6月粗铜检修产能或环比减少，国内6月粗铜生产量（进口量）环比或增加（减少）；江铜云源二期年产15万吨阴极铜项目3月底开工建设，建成后将实现26万吨产能，国内6月电解铜生产量环比或增加；印尼自由港旗下曼迪坎扬48万吨产能将于6月下旬恢复生产且12月达到满负荷生产，日本住友金属矿业计划10月对印尼冶炼厂进行为期6周检验，国内6月电解铜进口量环比或减少；进口窗口关闭限制国内电解铜进口量，中国保税区电解铜库存量较上周减少；中国电解铜社会库存量较上周减少；伦金所电解铜库存量较上周减少；国际部分贸易商仍在向美国港口运输约60万吨铜，使COMEX铜库存量较上周增加 [4] Downstream - 中国精铜杆（再生铜杆）产能开工率较上周升高，精铜杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加，再生铜杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加；中国铜电线电缆产能开工率较上周下降，企业原料（成品）库存量较上周减少（增加）；中国铜漆包线单量（产能开工率）较上周减少（下降）；中国黄铜棒产能开工率较上周下降；中美互征关税缓和和传统消费淡季来临交织，国内6月钢材企业产能开工率（生产量、进口量、出口量）环比或下降（增加、增加、减少），具体而言，电解铜制厂、再生铜制厂、电生铜板、固废铜流通有限和成品库存等方面复产受限，反向影响到部分企业，如铜板带厂、铜电线电缆、铜漆包线、铜板市、铜箔、钢管、黄铜棒等产能开工率或环比下降 [4] Market Data - **沪铜期货活跃合约**：2025年5月30日收盘价77600元，较昨日变动 - 530元；成交量87403手，较昨日增加7250手；持仓量172994手，较昨日减少1763手；库存34128吨，较昨日增加1963吨；SMM 1电解铜平均价78235元，较昨日变动 - 250元 [2] - **沪铜基差或现货升贴水**：沪铜基差635元，较昨日变动280元；广州电解铜现货升贴水15元，较昨日变动 - 50元；华北电解铜现货升贴水 - 130元，较昨日变动0元；华东电解铜现货升贴水50元，较昨日变动5元 [2] - **价差（近月与远月）**：沪铜近月 - 沪铜连一为330元，较昨日变动60元；沪铜连一 - 沪铜连二为180元，较昨日变动 - 40元；沪铜连二 - 沪铜连一为200元，较昨日变动 - 10元 [2] - **伦敦铜**：LME3个月铜期货收盘价（电子盘）2025年6月2日为9615美元，较昨日变动118美元；LME铜期货0 - 3个月合约价差为51.49美元，较昨日变动1.41美元；LME铜期货3 - 15个月合约价差为105.01美元，较昨日变动10.76美元；沪伦铜价比值为8.0707，较昨日变动 - 0.10 [2] - **COMEX铜**：铜期货活跃合约收盘价2025年6月2日为4.858美元，较昨日变动0.19美元；总库存量182626吨，较昨日增加2125吨 [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper: US trade policy is heating up, and copper prices may run stronger. Refer to the March market. After experiencing the March market, market sensitivity may decrease. Copper prices are expected to run with a slight upward bias, with attention on the resistance at the 79,000 - 80,000 yuan level [3]. - Aluminum: US trade policy affects global aluminum demand in the medium - long term but has little short - term impact. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on the long - short game at the 20,000 yuan level [4]. Summary by Section 1. Macroeconomic Factors - On May 30, Trump announced on "Truth Social" that starting from June 4, the import tariffs on steel and aluminum would be raised from 25% to 50%. This may push up the price of COMEX copper, driving up LME copper and SHFE copper. For aluminum, it mainly affects global demand in the medium - long term due to China's strong pricing power [8]. 2. Copper 2.1 Price and Volume Trends - Multiple figures show the trends of copper futures prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, and positions, etc. [10][11][15] 2.2 Declining Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been decreasing, indicating tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. Domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to the same period last year, suggesting expected tightness in the domestic ore end and over - capacity in smelting as the main reasons for low TC [24]. 2.3 Slowing De - stocking of Electrolytic Copper - Figures show the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME), indicating a slowdown in de - stocking [29]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The figure shows the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries [31]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Price and Volume Trends - Multiple figures show the trends of aluminum futures prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, and spreads, etc. [33][35][38] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Figures show the inventory of bauxite at ports and the price of alumina [45][50]. 3.3 Seasonal De - stocking of Electrolytic Aluminum - Figures show the trends of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [49]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - Figures show the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods [51][55][56]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: In late May, copper prices fluctuated. Low inventory supported prices, while reduced post - peak consumption expectations and slower de - stocking pressured prices. The increase in US trade policy may push up copper prices, but market sensitivity may be lower. Copper prices are expected to run with a slight upward bias, with attention on the 79,000 - 80,000 yuan resistance [58]. - Aluminum: In late May, aluminum prices fluctuated. Low inventory supported prices, while reduced post - peak consumption expectations weakened the upward drive. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs may lead to a decline in global aluminum consumption expectations in the medium - long term, but the short - term impact on the domestic market is limited. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on the 20,000 yuan long - short game [58].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper is focusing on cost reduction and resource replacement to enhance its competitive advantage in the copper industry [1][2]. Group 1: Cost Reduction Strategies - Yunnan Copper is implementing a comprehensive cost reduction strategy across four key areas: assigning cost responsibilities, benchmarking against industry leaders, utilizing cost reduction tools, and fostering a cost-saving culture [2]. - In Q1, Yunnan Copper achieved a revenue of 37.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, up 23.97% [2]. Group 2: Resource Management and Technological Advancements - Yunnan Copper is leveraging its three smelting bases to optimize resource allocation and cost control, with significant projects like the upgrade of the Southwest Copper Industry and the introduction of advanced flotation technology [3]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment to enhance technology management and focus on emerging industries, including green low-carbon technologies and resource recycling [3]. Group 3: Smart Mining Initiatives - Yunnan Copper has made progress in smart mining, with the deployment of autonomous vehicles and AI systems that have improved mining efficiency by 15% and reduced underground workforce by 40% [4]. Group 4: Focus on High-Grade Copper Resources - Yunnan Copper is intensifying exploration efforts for high-grade copper resources, planning to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, which holds significant copper reserves with a higher average grade than Yunnan Copper's current resources [5][6]. - The acquisition will strengthen Yunnan Copper's resource reserves and production capacity [7].