南华期货铜风险管理报告 2025年4月2日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 近20交易日收盘最大值 | 近20交易日收盘最小值 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80430 | 82000 | 77510 | 13.59% | 53.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 source： 利多因素： 利空因素： 1. 溢价仍存，精废价差少许偏高。 1. 供给端偏紧，铜矿现货TC负值，冶炼厂减产压力增加。 2. 美关税政策影响现货供给，拉高COMEX铜价，同时影响沪铜。 3. 下游接受程度增加。 2. 下游尚未完全消化目前价格。 3. 黄金价格潜在的回调风险。 铜期货盘面数据（日度） | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力 | 元/吨 | 80430 | 0 | 0% | | 沪铜连一 | 元/吨 | 80430 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, in the second quarter, a large amount of South American soybeans will arrive in China, suppressing the soybean meal market price. Rapeseed meal supply pressure has weakened due to a significant decline in rapeseed arrivals this year, and inventory pressure is not large. However, the tariff's marginal impact is weakening, and short - term supply is relatively abundant, causing the spot price to fall and dragging down the futures price. The far - month rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the uncertainty of future supply [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the supply situation in Canada has loosened, putting downward pressure on rapeseed prices. Domestically, the pressure on the rapeseed oil supply side has weakened in the first quarter, but inventory is rising, constraining the market price. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but long - term uncertainty. Recently, rapeseed oil has been oscillating strongly and can be participated in short - term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures closing price (active contract) of rapeseed oil decreased by 61 yuan/ton, and that of ICE rapeseed decreased by 2.2 Canadian dollars/ton. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed oil warehouse receipt decreased by 30 [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton, while the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 2520 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil remained unchanged, and the import cost of rapeseed increased by 31.64 yuan/ton to 4505.78 yuan/ton [2]. 替代品现货价格 - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9710 yuan/ton, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 90 yuan/ton to 1060 yuan/ton [2]. 上游情况 - The total monthly rapeseed import volume increased by 1.41 million tons to 33.31 million tons, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased by 5 million tons to 35 million tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed decreased by 3.46% to 21.06% [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 1 million tons to 21 million tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal increased by 21.55 million tons to 30.77 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in different regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly output of feed increased by 6.8 million tons to 2843.6 million tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil increased by 60.4 million tons to 527.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry decreased by 253 billion yuan to 5549 billion yuan [2]. 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal increased, and the historical volatility also increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil increased slightly, while the 20 - day historical volatility decreased [2]. 行业消息 - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) had mixed results on Monday. The Brazilian soybean harvest is about 80% complete, and the soil moisture in Argentine crop - growing areas has improved, putting pressure on international soybean prices. The USDA planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the United States in 2025 is 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the 7.9 - magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 28, although the epicenter is some distance from the main tin - mining areas, is likely to delay the resumption of production in the tin mines. The tin price volatility may remain high in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to decline slightly as the earthquake has caused an over - increase in the price, and it is expected to give back some of the irrational gains. The overall view is a slight decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - The Shanghai Tin Index opened high and closed low on Monday, finally stabilizing at 282,000 yuan per ton [2] 2. Industrial Performance - The fundamentals of the tin industry remain stable [2] 3. Futures Price - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 282,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 282,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 282,290 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME Tin 3M is 35,895 US dollars/ton, up 640 US dollars or 1.82%; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.8, down 0.11 or 1.39% [3] 4. Spot Price - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 282,200 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.88% week - on - week; 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 100% week - on - week; 40% tin concentrate is 269,700 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.97% week - on - week; 60% tin concentrate is 273,700 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.94% week - on - week; 60A solder bar is 182,750 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan or 1.67% week - on - week; 63A solder bar is 190,750 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan or 1.87% week - on - week; lead - free solder is 288,750 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan or 1.76% week - on - week [7] 5. Import Profit and Processing Fee - The tin import profit is - 23,395.74 yuan/ton, down 2,911.56 yuan or 14.21% day - on - day; the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan or 23.39% [11] 6. Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,946 tons, up 116 tons or 1.31% day - on - day; the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,435 tons, up 81 tons or 1.86% day - on - day; the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 3,346 tons, up 35 tons or 1.06% day - on - day; the total LME tin inventory is 3,050 tons, down 55 tons or 1.77% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market in China has shown significant growth in trading volume and value in February, indicating a positive trend in market activity and potential investment opportunities [2][3][4]. Trading Volume Growth - In February, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 563 million contracts and a trading value of 51.56 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 69.67% and 69.23% respectively [3]. - Cumulatively, from January to February, the trading volume reached 1.115 billion contracts and the trading value was 100.43 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 26.19% and 34.83% [3]. Performance by Exchanges - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) accounted for 26.92% of the national market's trading volume with 300 million contracts, showing a year-on-year increase of 39.53% [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) had a trading volume of 380 million contracts, representing 34.06% of the national market, with a year-on-year growth of 29.09% [5]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) recorded a trading volume of 338 million contracts, making up 30.34% of the national market, with a year-on-year increase of 13.84% [5]. Financial Futures Market - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) reported a trading volume of 23.61 million contracts, which is 4.2% of the national market, with a trading value of 20.12 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.03% of the national market [3]. Economic Recovery Impact - Analysts believe that the stabilization of the Chinese economy will further boost the futures market, with expectations for more diverse risk management tools and products to be introduced [6]. - The government’s focus on capital market reforms and the introduction of green financial products may lead to innovation in futures products, such as carbon emission rights futures and lithium futures [6]. Market Outlook - Increased issuance of special bonds and urbanization efforts are expected to improve demand for steel, potentially changing the current downturn in the steel industry [7]. - The overall improvement in domestic fundamentals and liquidity is anticipated to support a rebound in the stock market, with a focus on technology and dividend sectors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic inventory cycle and its impact on commodity trading, highlighting the challenges in relying on U.S. demand to drive global economic growth in 2025 due to low inventory levels in China and potential recession risks in the U.S. [3][10] Group 1: Macro Inventory Cycle - The macro inventory cycle is crucial for understanding systemic risks in commodities, with historical trading logic based on inventory changes leading to various market phenomena [4][11]. - The article outlines different macro trading logics for various years, including U.S. recession in 2024 and China's inventory reduction in 2023 [5][6][10]. Group 2: Commodity Trading Phenomena - Several unusual phenomena in commodity trading are identified, such as significant price drops despite low inventory levels and high inventory not leading to price increases [11][12]. - A model developed to explain these phenomena shows a correlation between basis rates and commodity prices, indicating that understanding when to focus on supply-demand logic versus macro logic is essential [14]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators from the U.S. show mixed signals, with manufacturing PMI at a 17-month high while service sector PMI has declined significantly [26][27]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped for three consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since June 2024, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [28]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if issues arise in the Western economy, the probability of such events may be higher than previously thought, with a potential shift of capital from the West to the East beginning in 2025 [29].