Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff reduction is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, but the downstream textile industry is entering the off - season, with orders declining month - on - month and yarn and fabric mills starting to accumulate inventory. The cotton price rebound is limited, and it may maintain a low - level volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes in production areas and cotton destocking [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,400 and 13,600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1711 and a historical percentile of 0.643 over 3 years [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategies**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 13,600 - 13,900 to lock in profits. They can also sell call options (CF509C14000) with a 75% ratio at 200 - 250 to reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategies**: For enterprises with low inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 12,500 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12400) with a 75% ratio at 200 - 250 to reduce costs [3]. Market Factors -利多解读 - The US has suspended the 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the initial 90 days, retained a 10% tariff, and cancelled the subsequent 91% tariff increase, which is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports [4]. Market Factors -利空解读 - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has high impurity content, and high - quality resources are scarce, leading to a strong cotton basis [6]. - The intended planting area of US cotton in the 25/26 season has declined, and the drought in production areas persists, with a possible decrease in new - season output [6]. - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged [7]. - As of the end of March, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 579.89 million tons, at a five - year peak, indicating abundant domestic supply [7]. - The downstream industry has entered the off - season, with orders declining month - on - month, yarn and fabric mills' finished - product inventory rising slightly, and some factories facing the pressure of reducing production [7]. - Although the Sino - US tariff war has eased, there are still uncertainties, and the market has significant macro risks [7]. Futures and Price Index - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13,425, up 45 (0.34%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,070, up 90 (0.69%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,330, up 90 (0.68%); Yarn 01 closed at 0, down 19,500 (-100%); Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Yarn 09 closed at 19,545, up 115 (0.59%) [5][8]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1,054, up 107; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 355, down 45; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 260, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 95, up 45; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,335, up 40; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 704, up 82; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 676, up 180 [9]. - **Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B was 14,384, up 197 (1.39%); CCI 2227B was 12,547, up 147 (1.19%); CCI 2129B was 14,657, up 196 (1.36%); FCI Index S was 13,658, unchanged (0%); FCI Index M was 13,483, unchanged (0%); FCI Index L was 13,297, unchanged (0%) [10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: May 13, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Zhang Xuan (F03118257) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Steel's spot profit remains high, driving iron - water production up. Coal and coke have short - term strong supply and demand, with a fair fundamental situation. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal surplus is hard to resolve, and coal prices may decline slowly. Coke's supply - demand contradiction is relatively controllable, but steel's far - month orders are falling, and the first price cut has started, making it difficult for the coke futures to rise. Maintain the idea of shorting on rebounds and avoid bottom - fishing [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies Coke - For coking plants with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short J2509 coke futures according to sales plans. 25% hedging ratio at 1500 - 1550, 50% at 1550 - 1600 [3] Coking Coal - For traders with high coking coal inventory worried about price drops, they can sell JM2509 coking coal futures to lock in selling prices. 25% hedging ratio at 900 - 950, 50% at 950 - 1000 [3] Group 5: Market Analysis 利多解读 - Tariff negotiation eases, leading to a rebound in global risk assets [5] 利空解读 - Steel mills start the first price cut, to be implemented on the 16th; domestic coal mines have weak incentives to cut production, and stable supply causes serious coking coal surplus [8] - Black futures' daily warehouse receipt data shows that most products' warehouse receipts decreased on May 13, 2025, except for coking coal, coke, silicon iron, and silicon manganese which increased [6] - Coal and coke spot price data shows that most prices remained stable on May 13, 2025, with some having weekly declines [6][9] Group 6: Graphical Analysis - There are multiple graphs including coking coal and coke spot price trends, spread seasonality, basis seasonality, warehouse receipt inventory seasonality, price difference between domestic and foreign coking coal, profit seasonality, and ratio seasonality [10][11][12][13][14][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][31][33][35][39]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月13日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2506,涨跌+0.13%,成交量9.29万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为2975手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交13.31万手，比上一日减少4.21万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓10.24万手，比上一日减少1083 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓10.40万手，比上一日减少2860手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓23881、国泰君安，总持仓13975、东证期货，总持仓9535；空头前三席位 为中信期货，总持仓14810、东证期货，总持仓14806、银河期货，总持仓12962； 责任编辑：小浪快报 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年5月13日30年期国债期货主力合约2506持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | | 会员 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 25,5 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月13日收盘主力合约苯乙烯2506,涨跌+5.99%,成交量79.80万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 多，差额头寸为1944手。 苯乙烯期货全合约总计成交125.34万手，比上一日新增37.55万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓43.01万手，比上一日增加2.60万手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓44.83万手，比上一日增加2.03万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓134789、东证期货，总持仓36845、华泰期货，总持仓31726；空头前三席 位为国泰君安，总持仓129854、东证期货，总持仓35729、永安期货，总持仓29676； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：海通期货、持仓9083、增仓2696，永安期货、持仓5406、增仓2432，东海期货、 持仓3807、增仓2215；多头减仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓18748、减仓-2671，华泰期货、持仓14671、减仓-756，中信期 货、持仓12981、减仓-689； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：华泰期货、持仓13266、增仓3714，银河期货、持仓8153、增仓1736， ...

注：沪深300、上证50、中证500的10年利率用10年期AAA企业债利率，标普500用美国10年期国债利率，德国DAX用德国10年期国债利率 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.530 105.890 108.725 106.225 涨跌（%） 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.4565% 1.5499% 1.6720% 日度变化(BP) -12.00 -3.00 -3.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Opinions" by the central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the Guangdong provincial government aims to enhance financial support for Nansha, promoting its role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development through 30 key measures [1][4]. Financial Services for Innovation and Entrepreneurship - Support for enterprises aligned with Nansha's industrial development through bill financing and encouragement of "loan + external direct investment" models [4] - Promotion of high-end manufacturing industries and social capital investment, including mechanisms for accounts receivable confirmation and support for issuing technology innovation bonds [4] - Facilitation of youth innovation and entrepreneurship, allowing Hong Kong and Macao residents equal access to support policies and employment opportunities [4] Social and Livelihood Financial Services - Promotion of cross-border payment systems, credit financing, and the facilitation of international professionals' practices [4] Development of Specialized Financial Services - Encouragement for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to explore electricity futures and support for green and sustainable bond issuance in Hong Kong and Macao [4] - Establishment of a digital financial research think tank and support for the application of generative AI models in finance [4] - Support for quality securities firms to obtain public fund qualifications and the development of cross-border wealth management pilot programs [4] Cross-Border Financial Innovation and Communication - Research on establishing an international commercial bank in the Greater Bay Area and support for Hong Kong and Macao investors to set up securities and fund companies [5] - Promotion of higher-level trade and investment renminbi settlement facilitation and support for fund companies in Nansha to participate in mutual recognition arrangements [5] Support Measures - Emphasis on increasing policy support, including housing and talent policies, to create favorable conditions for domestic and international professionals in Nansha [5]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | 6400-6500 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据 | | 空 | 为了防止铁合金上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入铁 | SF2509、SM | 买入 | 25% | SF:5300-5400、SM: | | 理 | 订单情况进行采购 | | | 合金期货，在盘面采购来提前锁定采购成本 | 2509 | | | 5300-5400 | source： ...

Report Core View - After the China-US peace talks, there may be opportunities to buy ships for soybean imports in the fourth quarter, but the far - month crushing profit is still negative, so the ship - buying progress will be slow. The short - term trading is mainly based on sentiment. The outer - market logic lies in the game between supply (US soybean new - crop planting) and demand (export and crushing), while the inner - market trades the expectation of high supply pressure and accelerated oil - mill operation. In the long - term, the fundamental logic will return to US soybean new - crop planting and trade - war negotiations. In the near - term, after the release of spot pressure, a bullish view on the spread and the futures price is recommended [4]. - The outer - market cost valuation after the China - US peace talks supports the far - month prices, and there is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - month due to tariff disturbances and Brazilian export premiums. However, the subsequent soybean supply will be smooth, and the demand side is cautious [4][5][8]. Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for bean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 68.5%. The monthly price forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.819 [3]. Hedging Strategies Trader Inventory Management - With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, traders can short M2509 bean - meal futures at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Feed - mill Procurement Management - With low regular inventory, feed mills can buy M2509 bean - meal futures at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. Oil - mill Inventory Management - Fearing excessive imported soybeans and low bean - meal prices, oil mills can short M2509 bean - meal futures at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Futures Price Quotes | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 2948 | 3 | 0.1% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2762 | - 43 | - 1.53% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2908 | 9 | 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2312 | - 11 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2434 | - 41 | - 1.66% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2544 | - 7 | - 0.27% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1052.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.2404 | 0.0001 | 0% | [10] Spread and Basis Quotes | Spread/Basis | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 186 | 46 | | M05 - 09 | - 146 | - 52 | | M09 - 01 | - 40 | 6 | | RM01 - 05 | - 122 | 30 | | RM05 - 09 | - 110 | - 34 | | RM09 - 01 | 232 | 4 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3040 | - 120 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 132 | - 129 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2467 | - 32 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 84 | - 20 | | Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 573 | - 120 | | Bean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 364 | 16 | [11] Import Cost and Crushing Profit | Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5337.1031 | 0 | 0.0098 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3675.98 | 35.33 | - 16.59 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (47%) | - 1597.5003 | - 6.8194 | 27.7825 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1622.0881 | 0 | - 15.7357 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 251.4047 | - 0.0485 | 0.0142 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 30 | 18 | 22 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 22 | 15 | 18 | [12]

Group 1 - Gold prices have significantly declined, with COMEX gold futures dropping below $3220 per ounce and London gold reaching $3215.8 per ounce [1][2] - Major jewelry brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang, have reduced their gold jewelry prices by 14 yuan per gram, with prices now at 1008 yuan and 1007 yuan per gram respectively [4][7] - Promotional activities ahead of the "5·20" event have led to some gold jewelry prices falling below 900 yuan per gram after discounts [1][7] Group 2 - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in substantial progress, positively impacting market sentiment, with major U.S. stock indices rising by 1% to 1.5% [1][8] - Analysts suggest that while gold has long-term value, short-term risks of price corrections exist due to profit-taking and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following the trade agreement [8][9] - The domestic stock market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices rebounding to levels prior to the "equal tariffs" situation, indicating improved market sentiment [9]

Group 1 - The core idea of the news emphasizes the importance of investor education in safeguarding wealth and stabilizing the market, particularly for small and medium investors, as highlighted by the new "National Nine Articles" issued by the State Council [2][3] - The "Investor Education and Protection" short video competition, organized by the Guangdong Securities and Futures Industry Association, aims to enhance the relationship between institutions and investors and promote high-quality educational content [2][3] - The competition includes various stages such as video training, collection of works, evaluation, and awards, with a focus on innovative educational methods to meet the growing wealth management needs of the public [3][4] Group 2 - The competition attracted widespread participation from financial institutions in Guangdong, with evaluation criteria based on content theme, production quality, creativity, and playback effectiveness [4][5] - A total of 75 video entries were analyzed, showcasing a diverse range of educational content that addresses various investment products and risk prevention strategies, including emerging fraud techniques [6][7] - The use of innovative formats such as short dramas, animations, and AI technology in the entries reflects a deep understanding of different audience needs, making financial knowledge more accessible and engaging [6][7][8]