光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格偏强震荡，主力09合约收盘价1886元/吨，涨幅0.96%。现货市场 | 看涨 | | | 继续上调，主流地区价格上调幅度10~30元/吨，山东、河南地区市场价格均已涨至 | | | | 1900元/吨。基本面来看，昨日仍有企业检修，尿素日产水平进一步回落至19.92万 | | | | 吨，日环比降0.24万吨。需求端处于夏季用肥高峰期，但当前市场跟进情绪较为谨 | | | | 慎。一方面在于近期价格持续上涨，部分对高价存在抵触情绪，另一方面在于近期 | | | | 出口消息面影响持续发酵，产业多持观望态度以等待相关出口政策及会议落地。昨 | | | | 日收盘后出口相关会议及消息 出不 ，但实 有待进一步 证。整体来看，短期 | | | | 尿素市场出口消息扰动力度 升，期货盘面短期仍将延续偏强趋势，但价格上涨过 | | | | 多也仍将触发保供稳价机制，关注需求力度、出口形势变化及保供稳价政策导向。 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Core Views - Urea futures prices strengthened on the first trading day after the holiday, with the spot market also significantly stronger. The daily production level of urea fluctuated at a high level, and the demand side improved. The futures market is expected to continue its strong trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand fulfillment, export situation changes, and price - stabilization policies [1]. - Soda ash futures prices showed a weak and volatile trend after the holiday. The supply is expected to decline due to plant overhauls, and the demand follows as needed. The futures market may experience a phased upward trend, but the long - term pattern remains loose [1]. - Glass futures prices were weak after the holiday. The supply support is limited, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The trading atmosphere improved after the holiday. The futures prices are expected to be strong during the day, and attention should be paid to demand sustainability and macro - sentiment changes [1]. Market Information Urea - On May 6, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 4,970, an increase of 111 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 125 [4]. - On May 6, the daily production of the urea industry was 201,700 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from April 30 and an increase of 12,500 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 87.47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [4]. - On May 6, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions increased. For example, in Shandong, it was 1,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On May 6, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,799, a decrease of 150 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,806. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,266, a decrease of 175 from the previous trading day [6]. - On May 6, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions varied, with some light - alkali prices slightly increasing [6]. - On May 6, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 86.11% [7]. - On May 6, the average price of the float glass market was 1,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 155,800 tons [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts, such as those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [10][11][19][21]. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [22]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].

2025 年 5 月 7 日 行业研究 今日产品价格动向：1）能源：国产 LNG 市场走势偏弱；下游需求有限，国 内动力煤价格弱势运行；原油走势趋弱；市场看空情绪明显，华中汽柴油价 格整体下调。2）化工：华东纯苯价格相对坚挺，南北价差扩大；下游检修 延迟，今日 PX 市场上涨；天然橡胶市场价格走势上行。3）新材料：下游压 价心态不改，负极材料企业仍面临降本增效压力；多晶硅市场活跃度欠佳， 价格有继续走跌趋势；节后市场偏弱势，六氟磷酸锂价格微幅下降。 投资建议：（1）持续看好低估值、高股息、业绩好的"三桶油"及油服板 块。建议关注：中国石油、中国石化、中国海油、中海油服、海油工程、海 油发展；（2）持续看好国产替代趋势下的材料企业，国产半导体材料、面 板材料有望受益，建议关注：晶瑞电材、彤程新材、奥来德；（3）积极的 货币及财政政策陆续出台，地产链及龙头公司有望率先受益，看好农药化肥 及民营大炼化板块，建议关注：万华化学、华鲁恒升、华锦股份；（4）看 好维生素及蛋氨酸板块，建议关注：安迪苏、浙江医药、新和成。 风险分析：原材料快速下跌和维持高位、下游需求不及预期风险。 基础化工 石油化工 交通运输仓储 MXD6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the 60,000 tons/year formaldehyde project by Xinjiang Xinye Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the company's strategy to expand into high-end new materials and strengthen its position in the coal chemical industry [3][4]. Group 1: Project Development - The 60,000 tons/year formaldehyde project broke ground in April 2025, following the successful completion of a 40,000 tons/year project in July 2023, which filled a historical gap in Xinjiang's formaldehyde sector [3][4]. - The new project aligns with the regional strategic initiatives, aiming to leverage opportunities from the "Ten Industrial Clusters" and "Three Bases and One Corridor" development plans [3]. Group 2: Industry Significance - Formaldehyde, as one of the five major engineering plastics, is widely used in automotive and electronics sectors, serving as an ideal substitute for metal materials and other plastics [3]. - The successful production of formaldehyde by Xinjiang Xinye Energy Chemical Co. since 2021 has established it as one of the first local companies in Xinjiang to produce this product, achieving full production and sales with considerable profits [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Upon full production, the total capacity for formaldehyde will reach 100,000 tons/year, with an expected annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan, positioning the company as the largest and most efficient formaldehyde production base in Northwest China [4].

Core Viewpoint - The successful operation of the No. 2 gasifier at Datang Inner Mongolia Duolun Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. has set a world record for continuous high-load operation using low-quality lignite as raw material, demonstrating the feasibility of utilizing such coal in chemical production [1][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Datang Inner Mongolia Duolun Coal Chemical project is located in Duolun County, Xilin Gol League, and is the first large-scale coal chemical base constructed by China Datang Corporation [1]. - This project is the first modern coal chemical project in China to produce coal-based olefin products using low-quality lignite, aligning with national energy development strategies and industrial policies [1]. Group 2: Technical Details - The project consists of seven main production units, including lignite pre-drying, gasification, syngas purification, methanol production, methanol-to-propylene, and polypropylene production [4]. - The gasification unit, which is the core of the project, utilizes three Shell gasifiers that consume 8,610 tons of low-quality lignite daily, producing 525,000 standard cubic meters of effective syngas per hour [4]. Group 3: Achievements and Innovations - The gasifier has achieved a continuous operation of 319 days, setting a world record for gasifiers using lignite [1][4]. - The project has successfully addressed challenges related to the high sulfur content, ash content, and other properties of low-quality lignite, leading to optimized operations and improved stability [4]. - The successful long-term operation of the gasifier validates the potential for using low-quality lignite in chemical production, paving new paths for coal selection in the coal chemical industry [4].

在黑龙江鹤岗市哈萝公路旁，近20米高的合成塔在晨雾中若隐若现。中海石油华鹤煤化有限公司氨生产 部工艺技术监督、技能专家张伟华仰头望着塔顶耀眼的照明灯，安全绳在工装裤上勒出熟悉的纹路—— 这是他与化工装置对话的第13个年头。从青涩毕业生到技术能手，从普通操作工到技能专家，他在钢铁 丛林里书写着新时代产业工人的奋斗篇章。 摸爬滚打：在钢铁课堂上实现蜕变 在公司合成装置E04205换热器紧急抢修战役中，张伟华的技术嗅觉再次显现。面对突发泄漏，他创新 采用"增加临时排放罐、用热除盐水冲洗内部"的方法让系统平稳停车交出检修，仅用常规检修时间的 60%就锁定漏点。当设备重新投用后，他又开始整理《低温甲醇洗装置氨冷器泄漏危害及应对措施》论 文，为行业技术积累提供重要参考。 "存在即为合理，但并不一定是最优"，这是师傅邓文刚传授给他的一个理念，张伟华牢牢地记在了心 间。2024年年初，为了彻底解决当低温甲醇洗系统负荷降低时，循环气压缩机随之停机造成的循环气浪 费、液氨损失的难题，张伟华带领专项攻关小组打破固定思维，对循环气压缩机原理性能指标深入研 究，构建出"降温度、提产量、开回流、保稳定"的总体思路，对系统进行联合优化，成 ...

Group 1: Energy Transition and Policy - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China will continue to lead the global energy transition, shifting fossil energy's role to chemical raw materials, with green technologies like renewable energy and CCUS expected to develop long-term [1] - By 2035, China's primary energy demand is projected to reach a peak of 7 billion tons of standard coal, with non-fossil energy's share expected to rise to 78% by 2060, supporting the carbon neutrality goal [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Development - Marine oil and gas resources are becoming the main force for domestic oil reserve increases, with significant potential in marine renewable energy, such as offshore wind power, expected to exceed 350 million kilowatts in installed capacity by 2060 [2] - The energy pipeline network in China has made significant progress, with a total pipeline length expected to exceed 300,000 kilometers by around 2040, evolving from traditional transport channels to a new energy system [2] Group 3: Refining and Chemical Industry Transformation - The refining industry is transitioning from traditional fuel production to chemical raw material production, with crude oil processing expected to drop to 300 million tons by 2060, primarily for chemical products [2] - Catalytic cracking will focus on processing heavy raw materials to meet the demand for chemical raw materials [2] Group 4: CCUS Technology and Coal Chemical Industry - CCUS technology is seen as a key to achieving global carbon neutrality, with China expected to achieve a carbon storage capacity of 3 billion tons by 2060 [3] - The coal chemical industry faces structural supply-demand contradictions and challenges in green and digital transformation, necessitating a shift from "making good use of coal" to "making good use of carbon" [3]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is transitioning from fuel to material properties, driven by global energy transformation, leading to breakthroughs in technology and equipment [1] - China's traditional refining capacity is facing oversupply pressure, prompting a focus on the "reduce oil, increase chemicals" strategy to enhance the production capacity of chemical raw materials like ethylene and propylene [1] - The industry is confronted with external pressures such as intensified geopolitical conflicts and cost advantages in the Middle East and North America, necessitating diversification of raw materials and technological innovation [1] Group 2 - The coal chemical industry is accelerating its green and low-carbon transformation, with developments in coal-based specialty fuels and biodegradable materials [1] - The deep coupling of coal chemical and new energy is seen as an inevitable trend, potentially leading to zero-carbon emissions through the use of green electricity and hydrogen [2] - The industry must strengthen supply chain security by replacing imported equipment with domestic alternatives, as demonstrated by the delivery of over 680 sets of equipment for major coal chemical and refining projects [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic development of Xinjiang New Energy Chemical Co., which is advancing its methanol-formaldehyde-polyformaldehyde industrial chain through significant projects, including a recent EPC contract for a 60,000 tons/year polyformaldehyde project, aiming to become a leading production base in China [1][2]. Group 1: Project Developments - Xinjiang New Energy Chemical Co. signed an EPC contract for a 60,000 tons/year polyformaldehyde project with China Chemical Engineering Ningbo [1]. - The first phase of the polyformaldehyde project, with a capacity of 40,000 tons/year, was completed with an investment of 1.3 billion yuan, achieving trial production in July 2021 [2]. - The second phase of the project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons/year, has a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan, enhancing the value-added transformation of methanol [2]. Group 2: Market Context - Polyformaldehyde is recognized as one of the five major engineering plastics, widely used in high-end manufacturing sectors such as automotive and military, indicating a broad market potential [2]. - Currently, China's polyformaldehyde production capacity is expected to exceed 800,000 tons/year by the end of 2024, with several new projects coming online [3]. - The global polyformaldehyde production capacity is approximately 2 million tons/year, with major international players like DuPont and BASF involved in the market [3].

Core Insights - The establishment of the Peking University - Changzhi Xiangyuan Chemical Joint Laboratory aims to address key technological challenges in the coal chemical industry, particularly in the development of mercury-free catalysts and the efficient utilization of by-products [1][4] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The collaboration with Peking University has led to significant breakthroughs in the development of a mercury-free catalyst for vinyl chloride synthesis, which is crucial for the local coal chemical industry [1][2] - Shanxi Huaxing Ecological Technology Co., Ltd. successfully applied for a key research project in Changzhi City, focusing on the selective and efficient leaching process of molybdenum, which enhances coal utilization rates [2] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - The establishment of a doctoral workstation at Shanxi Yuying Yongxu New Materials Co., Ltd. has attracted three PhD candidates from Peking University to work on research and development tailored to the company's needs [3] - The doctoral workstation aims to improve the recovery rate of a key pesticide intermediate, which could increase annual profits by 2 million yuan for the company [3] Group 3: Resource Integration - The joint laboratory exemplifies a model of deep integration between industry and academia, facilitating a "demand pool" and "resource pool" matching process to drive innovation [4][5] - Since the establishment of the Beijing-Changzhi cooperation in 2022, 50 key projects have been initiated across various sectors, including modern coal chemical and biomedicine, aimed at transforming original research into beneficial technologies and products for society [5]