Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The supply and demand of live hogs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Spot prices are likely to remain weak in a volatile manner. Futures contracts 2511 and 2601 are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market and remain weak [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the main 2601 live hog futures contract opened slightly lower, then rose and then fell, closing down. The highest price was 12,310 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,130 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,140 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 17,324 lots to 276,137 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the average price of ternary hogs nationwide was 11.24 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply - side**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and some slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live hogs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [7] - **Demand - side**: Currently, secondary fattening maintains sporadic replenishment. There is some replenishment demand due to low meat - making costs and declining pen utilization rates, and it has increased in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has slightly declined after the festival. However, as the weather continues to cool, consumer demand may continue to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have slightly increased, but the overall increase is limited. On October 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,500 heads, an increase of 11,800 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 15,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 7,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - As of October 9th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live hog was - 77 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per live hog purchased with piglets was - 320 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 13 yuan/head [8][10] 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15kg piglets in the week of October 9th was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head from the previous week [19] - The price difference between 150 - kg fat hogs and standard hogs in the week of October 9th was 0.26 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [19] - As of the week of October 9th, the average slaughter weight of live hogs nationwide was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [19]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Consumer Sector - Clean Energy Sector - AI Application Sector - Alcoholic Beverage Sector - Home Appliance Sector - Food and Beverage Sector - Livestock Farming Sector Key Points and Arguments Consumer Sector - Market sentiment is cautious, but the decline in risk assets and VIX index is not extreme, indicating improved market response to negotiations and tariff adjustments [1][3] - Internal structural changes in the consumer sector are evident, with external demand affected by U.S. Federal Reserve policies and trade tensions, while internal demand benefits from policy expectations and price recovery [1][3] - Q4 2025 is expected to present opportunities for internal demand consumption driven by style and policy, with significant performance expected during the Double Eleven shopping festival [1][5] Clean Energy Sector - The clean energy sector, particularly companies like Stone Technology, is performing well and expanding into overseas markets, aiming to become platform companies [2][21] AI Application Sector - Companies like Yiwan Yichuang and Jihong Co. are leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and are expected to see significant growth, especially in non-U.S. markets [1][9] Alcoholic Beverage Sector - The white wine market saw a decline in sales during the recent holiday period, but banquet sales remained strong, indicating a shift in consumer price sensitivity [1][10][11] - The overall performance of the white wine sector is stable, with expectations for gradual recovery in sales as the market adjusts to pricing changes [1][14] Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance industry is showing steady performance, with notable growth in the clean energy segment, particularly for companies like Stone Technology and Ecovacs [2][21] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with stable growth potential such as Stone Technology, Ecovacs, Midea, and Haier [22] Food and Beverage Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing mixed performance, with strong results from snack and soft drink leaders, while dining establishments face challenges [15] - Companies like Angel Yeast and Haitian Flavoring are expected to outperform due to strong competitive barriers and product optimization [15] Livestock Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is facing losses due to declining prices, with average prices around 14 RMB/kg and significant profit reductions expected [25] - Future price recovery is anticipated as production capacity is reduced, benefiting from policy stability regarding breeding sows [26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The consumer sector is expected to attract capital inflows, particularly in low-valuation, policy-aligned internal demand consumption areas such as food and beverage, agriculture, and retail [4] - The performance of the consumer sector is expected to be driven by companies with high certainty in earnings, particularly in the restaurant service sector [7] - The cost of operating restaurants is decreasing, leading to improved profitability and an expected increase in store openings by 20-30% [8] - The AI application sector is becoming increasingly important, with companies focusing on AI-driven efficiency improvements and market expansion [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with recent data indicating significant declines in both futures and spot markets, leading to losses for pig farming operations [1][2][3]. Price Trends - As of October 10, the futures market price for live pigs has dropped to 11,320 yuan/ton, down over 40% from the peak of 19,010 yuan/ton in August last year [1]. - The average selling price for live pigs has fallen below 12 yuan/kg, marking a near historical low [1]. - In September, major companies reported declines in average selling prices, with TianKang Biological at 12.17 yuan/kg (down 4.85% month-on-month), DaBeiNong at 12.91 yuan/kg (down from 13.67 yuan/kg), and New Hope at 12.89 yuan/kg (down 4.8% month-on-month and 31.47% year-on-year) [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has seen concentrated pressure release, with forced sales of larger pigs contributing to a "stampede effect" in the market [3]. - Despite some supply-side capacity reduction efforts, the market remains imbalanced, with excess supply continuing to suppress prices [7][8]. - The average price for lean meat pigs has dropped to 11.69 yuan/kg, down 34.72% year-on-year [2]. Industry Losses - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of increased volume but declining prices, leading to micro-profit or loss situations [4]. - Current losses per head for self-breeding operations are approximately 135.62 yuan, while losses for purchased piglet operations reach 295.65 yuan [4]. - The theoretical profit for self-breeding and piglet fattening has shown a downward trend since mid-August, with losses reported at 206.91 yuan/head and 409.19 yuan/head, respectively [4]. Capacity Reduction Efforts - The effectiveness of capacity reduction measures has been limited, with the number of breeding sows only slightly decreasing while still remaining at normal levels [7][8]. - Despite some large enterprises reducing production, many smaller farms have not yet begun to cut back, contributing to ongoing supply excess [7]. Seasonal Demand - The recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, typically a peak demand period, did not meet expectations due to adverse weather conditions affecting consumption [9]. - Analysts predict that the market will remain in a bottoming phase, with potential for slight recovery in November as seasonal demand increases [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share pig farming sector is experiencing a trend of increasing sales volume but decreasing prices, with leading companies expanding their output to mitigate the downward pressure on pig prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Major listed companies in pig farming reported significant year-on-year increases in sales volume for September 2023, with Muyuan Foods selling 5.573 million pigs (up 11.05%), Wens Foodstuffs selling 3.3253 million pigs (up 32.46%), and Zhengbang Technology's sales surging by 107.64% to 790,700 pigs [2]. - Other companies like New Hope and Tangrenshen also reported notable increases in sales volume, with growth rates of 16.92% and 28.33% respectively [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average selling price of pigs decreased significantly in September 2023, leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" effect. Muyuan Foods' average price was 12.88 yuan/kg (down 30.94%), while Wens Foods' average price was 13.18 yuan/kg (down 30.81%) [3]. - The sales revenue for these companies also declined, with Muyuan Foods experiencing a 22.46% drop in revenue [3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies are adopting varied strategies to cope with industry pressures. Muyuan Foods has raised its 2025 piglet output forecast to between 12 million and 14.5 million, while Wens Foods is leveraging its diversified operations [3]. - New Hope is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements to counter price risks [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The supply-demand dynamics in the pig farming industry are expected to remain challenging in Q4 2023, with supply pressures likely to dominate the market. The Ministry of Agriculture reported a higher-than-normal number of breeding sows, indicating increased pig supply in the coming months [4]. - Demand may show seasonal improvement but is expected to remain weak year-on-year, with potential price increases limited by the availability of frozen products [4]. Group 5: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to control production capacity, reduce costs, and ensure cash flow by implementing strategies such as slowing down output and enhancing breeding efficiency [4]. - Additionally, extending the industrial chain and developing deep processing of pigs can help increase product value and reduce reliance on single sales channels [5].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback on October 10, following a strong opening on October 9, with the ChiNext and STAR Market showing larger declines [1] - High-dividend stocks, such as the S&P Dividend ETF (562060), rose by 1.2%, while sectors like batteries, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals faced significant declines [1][2] - The agricultural sector showed resilience, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) reaching a peak increase of 1.5% before closing up 0.8% [1][5] Sector Performance - The technology sector faced a broad sell-off, particularly in AI-related stocks, with the Sci-Tech AI ETF (589520) dropping 4.75% [1][2] - Coal stocks strengthened due to seasonal demand for heating, with expectations of price increases if supply constraints are enforced [3] - The agricultural sector is seeing a potential turning point in the pig cycle, supported by recent policy signals aimed at reducing production capacity [7][10] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest focusing on AI infrastructure and applications as key investment opportunities, particularly in machinery and semiconductor equipment [4] - The agricultural sector is viewed as a favorable investment due to low valuations and supportive policy changes, with the agricultural ETF (159275) showing strong net subscriptions [8][11] - The internet sector in Hong Kong is experiencing volatility, with major stocks like Alibaba and Tencent facing declines, but long-term growth prospects remain positive [12][15] Fund Flows and ETF Performance - The internet ETF (513770) in Hong Kong saw a decline of 3.41%, but still attracted buying interest during dips, indicating investor confidence [12][15] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) experienced a drop of 3.33% but received significant net subscriptions, highlighting ongoing investor interest in the sector [22][26] - Overall, the market is characterized by a high-low rotation, with strong performance in certain sectors like coal and agriculture amidst broader market corrections [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses, prompting a rapid reduction in production capacity, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][8] - The report highlights the importance of quality companies in the swine breeding sector, which continue to show profitability and increasing dividend rates as key drivers for long-term performance and valuation [3] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in grain prices and the favorable fundamentals in planting and seed industries, indicating significant investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The current market for swine is under pressure, with prices for fat pigs nearing 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglet prices dropping below 200 yuan/head, leading to widespread losses in the industry [8][11] - As of August 2025, the number of breeding sows has slightly decreased to 40.38 million heads, with slaughter volumes increasing significantly [8] - The average price of commodity pigs fell to 14.23 yuan/kg in August, a decrease of 4.1% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year, indicating a rapid deterioration in industry profitability [8][49] Poultry Industry - The white feather broiler price has slightly decreased to 6.88 yuan/kg, while chick prices have increased to 3.22 yuan/bird, reflecting a mixed market response [15][22] - The yellow feather chicken price remains strong at 7.09 yuan/jin, supported by seasonal demand [22] Feed Industry - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with corn prices averaging 2304.12 yuan/ton, down 2.70% week-on-week, while wheat and soybean meal prices have seen slight increases [27][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the swine breeding sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from ongoing capacity reductions [3][41] - It also suggests that the recovery in swine inventory will boost demand for feed and animal health products, benefiting companies like Haida Group and Reap Bio [3][41] - In the planting sector, the report identifies investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][41] - The pet food sector is highlighted as a growth area, with increasing domestic brand recognition and market expansion [3][41]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with a focus on selecting low-cost quality enterprises [2][22]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [12][13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to falling prices, with an average price of 10.91 yuan/kg, leading to a potential reduction in production capacity [21][22]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining resilient due to improved downstream demand [3][37]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [4][42]. - The planting industry is experiencing pressure from supply and demand, but potential price increases could occur if there are significant reductions in grain production [5][49]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, and the aquaculture sector is showing upward trends in pricing [62][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The national average pig price has dropped below 11 yuan/kg, with the industry currently in a loss-making state. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.48 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [2][21]. - Short-term expectations indicate further price declines, but medium to long-term prospects remain positive for quality enterprises [22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chicken is 6.88 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The profitability of parent breeding chickens has improved, while broiler profitability remains under pressure [3][36]. - The sector is expected to stabilize as consumer demand gradually recovers [37]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.20 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption season approaches. The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in inventory due to ongoing financial pressures [4][42]. - The beef cycle is anticipated to begin anew, with a focus on the synergy between meat and dairy production [43]. Planting Industry - Recent fluctuations in grain prices are noted, with corn prices at 2215.71 yuan/ton and soybean prices at 3987.37 yuan/ton. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in crop yields occur [5][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in seed technology and production efficiency [49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs and poultry remain stable, while aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [62][68].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Viewpoints - After the double holiday, pig prices have rapidly declined to below 12 yuan/kg, with self-breeding and self-raising profitability dropping to -152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 47.2 yuan/head from the previous week. The pressure from high supply is expected to continue to weigh on pig prices, leading to increased market pessimism and a potential for further price declines. However, there is an expectation for a mid-to-long-term price reversal driven by policy and proactive production cuts [1][15][19] - The average selling price of lean pigs nationwide is 11.39 yuan/kg, down 6.1% from last week. The current valuation remains relatively low, suggesting investment opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2][16] - In poultry farming, the price of white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from last week, while the average price of chicken products remains stable at 8.65 yuan/kg. The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 0.6% to 3.22 yuan each. There are expectations for a price rebound in the chicken market [2][16][34] Summary by Sections Livestock - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.48 kg, showing a 0.5% increase from the low point in early August. Feed prices have also increased, indicating a gradual rise in pig inventory since July [1][15] - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising pigs is -152.15 yuan/head, while the profitability of purchased piglets is -301.04 yuan/head, indicating significant losses in the sector [19][20] Poultry - The price of yellow feather chickens has seen a week-on-week increase of 1.9%, with the current price at 14.18 yuan/kg. This suggests seasonal price elasticity opportunities [2][16][40] - The profitability of parent breeding chickens is 0.47 yuan/head, while the profitability of meat chickens is -2.23 yuan/head, reflecting challenges in the poultry sector [38][44] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as prices and profit distribution become clearer [2][16] Feed and Vaccines - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [2][16]

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the agricultural products sector [11] Core Viewpoints - The swine breeding industry has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with medium to long-term capacity regulation becoming the new normal. High-quality breeding companies are expected to see significant improvements in profit margins and profitability levels [2][20] - The report highlights a divergence in profitability within the breeding sector, with leading companies still achieving good performance despite overall industry challenges. The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery in yellow-feathered chicken prices, which is gradually improving profitability [2][20] - The aquaculture feed industry continues to show strong performance, with leading companies like Haida Group expected to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and profit [2][20] - The pet food sector is experiencing sustained high growth in proprietary brands, with overseas factories demonstrating resilience in exports. Key recommendations include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [2][20] Summary by Sections Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding sector is gradually entering a loss phase, with significant divergence in profitability among listed companies. The average price of live pigs in Q3 2025 is approximately 14.0 CNY/kg, down 4% quarter-on-quarter and 28% year-on-year. The average profit for self-bred pigs is about 42 CNY/head, while purchasing piglets incurs a loss of 118 CNY/head [7][21] - High-quality breeding companies have a complete cost below 12 CNY/kg, maintaining a profit of over 200 CNY/head, while companies with higher costs may still face losses [7][21] - Future pig prices are expected to rise in Q4 2025 and 2026 due to increased supply indicators and policy-driven capacity restrictions [26] Feed Sector - The feed industry maintains growth in production, with aquaculture feed demand recovering. Haida Group's feed sales are expected to grow by about 20% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit in the feed sector expected to increase by 30%-40% year-on-year [8][43] - The report notes that the structure of feed products is improving, with higher-margin products gaining a larger share of sales [8][43] Poultry Sector - The yellow-feathered chicken prices have bottomed out and are recovering, which is enhancing the profitability of the poultry breeding sector [2][20] Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector continues to see high growth in proprietary brands, with Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co recommended for their resilience in overseas sales. Online sales growth for the pet food industry is around 7.7%, with Guibao's proprietary brand growing by 21% [9][20]

Core Insights - The continuous decline in pig prices has created significant challenges for pig farming companies, with prices dropping to a new low of 11.20 yuan/kg, below the cost line of 13-14 yuan/kg for most producers [2][3][6] - Major companies like Wen's Foodstuffs and New Hope are adopting a "volume compensates for price" strategy, but this has not mitigated the impact of falling prices [2][6] - The tightening of financing options due to policy changes is exacerbating the cash flow issues faced by some pig farming companies, leading to a survival-of-the-fittest scenario in the industry [9][11] Industry Overview - As of October 11, the national average price for live pigs was 11.20 yuan/kg, reflecting a 15.92% month-on-month decline and a 38.36% year-on-year drop [3] - The industry is experiencing widespread losses, with many companies forced to sell off stock due to oversupply, leading to a grim outlook for the future [8][12] - The government has implemented measures to control pig production capacity, aiming to stabilize prices and reduce the number of breeding sows [9][12] Company Performance - Major pig farming companies reported declining sales and revenues in September 2025, with examples including: - Muyuan Foods sold 5.573 million pigs, generating 9.066 billion yuan in revenue, with an average price of 12.88 yuan/kg, all showing declines from August [7] - Wen's Foodstuffs sold 3.3253 million pigs, with a revenue of 4.975 billion yuan and an average price of 13.18 yuan/kg, also reflecting declines [7] - New Hope sold 1.3942 million pigs, generating 1.746 billion yuan in revenue, with an average price of 12.89 yuan/kg, showing significant year-on-year declines [7] Market Dynamics - The market is entering a phase of weak demand and strong supply, with an increase in planned slaughter numbers for October, indicating continued pressure on prices [12] - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will be crucial for the performance of listed pig farming companies, with price recovery largely dependent on the effectiveness of production capacity controls [12][13] - The ongoing price decline is expected to lead to a reduction in production capacity, although the timing and extent of this adjustment remain uncertain [13]