小盘股前几天下跌多，今天反弹上涨也略多。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 昨天微涨的银行等价值风格，今天微跌。 今天大盘整体微涨，截止到收盘，还在5星。 大中小盘股都上涨。 成长风格上涨较多。 医药行业今天上涨较多。医药的几个子行业，医疗、生物科技、创新药等也整体上涨。 这轮熊市底部上涨，科技股率先反弹。 例如恒生科技，在2022年10月触底，之后上涨超1倍。 医药行业2024年5.9星触底，之后反弹，比科技股晚了一年多。 不过今年也有继续上涨的迹象了。 低估品种总会有上涨的阶段。 港股也整体上涨，港股红利股、医药股领涨。 1. [大吉大利，今天吃基] 第358期的螺丝钉定投实盘来啦。 时间：2025年4月1日 方案：定投买入 品种： 指数增强投顾组合：11127元 主动优选投顾组合： 12086元 定投 金额采用的是 「定期不定额」的策略，估值越低投入越多。 实际使用参考金额的时候，可以根据自己的资金，按照一定比例来定投。 例如资金较少的情况下，可以按照10%的金额来投资。 还不了解组合发车计划的朋友，可以点击阅读介绍： 螺丝钉发车计划 PS：组合底层投资基金、各自比例等都是透明的，可以在公众号底部 ...

近期，全球股市普遍遭遇重挫，市场情绪因美国总统特朗普的威胁言论而陷入恐慌。3月31日，亚太市 场开盘后，日经225指数一度大跌4%，韩国KOSPI指数跌幅扩大至2.4%，创下2月10日以来的最低水 平。与此同时，纳指期货跌超3%，显示出全球投资者对市场前景的担忧。 特朗普威胁言论加剧市场不确定性 特朗普在3月30日接受美国全国广播公司电话采访时，就伊朗核问题和俄罗斯石油出口发表了强硬言 论。他威胁称，如果伊朗不与美国就其核问题达成协议，美国将对伊朗进行轰炸，并对其相关产品征 收"二级关税"。此外，特朗普还表示，如果俄罗斯未能促成俄乌停火协议，美国将对俄罗斯石油买家征 收25%至50%的关税。这些言论引发了市场对地缘政治紧张局势升级的担忧，进一步加剧了全球股市的 波动。 美股表现疲软，科技股领跌 作者：观察君 上周，美国三大股指全线下跌，纳斯达克指数累计跌2.59%，道琼斯指数累计跌0.96%，标普500指数全 周累计下跌1.53%。科技股成为重灾区，英伟达累计跌6.82%，Meta下跌3.27%，微软下跌3.18%，亚马 逊下跌1.78%，苹果下跌0.17%，谷歌A则下跌5.89%。市场对特朗普关税政策的担忧 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 700 points, marking a 1.7% decrease, the largest single-day drop since March 10 [1] - The Nasdaq index fell by 2.7%, resulting in a loss of approximately $505 billion in market value for the "Big Seven" tech companies [1] - The S&P 500 index decreased by nearly 2%, with 10 out of its 11 sectors closing lower, indicating a typical risk-off trading day characterized by rising bond prices and widening spreads [1] Group 2 - Recent economic data has raised concerns about stagflation in the US, with inflation levels falling short of expectations and consumer confidence deteriorating [2] - The core PCE price index for February showed a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, both exceeding expectations [2] - The consumer confidence index for March dropped to 57, the lowest level since 2022, with consumers anticipating a 4.1% inflation rate over the next 5-10 years, the highest since February 1993 [2]

Core Viewpoints - The short-term catalysts for the A-share market may diminish, while the upcoming April earnings season could enhance profit pricing power [1][5] - External demand may face downward pressure, but the fundamental landscape still supports long-term bonds [1][4] Equity Market - Zhongtai Securities focuses on small-cap technology stocks, suggesting that they may benefit from capital expenditures by leading firms and local investments, potentially releasing performance elasticity this year [3] - Guohai Securities believes that financial and technology sectors may benefit from index breakthroughs, with a strong recovery in policy, monetary, or fundamentals being necessary for sustained upward movement [4] - Huatai Bairui Fund anticipates an increase in profit pricing power as the market risk appetite recovers, with a focus on emerging growth assets and dividend cash flow sectors benefiting from declining interest rates [5] Macroeconomic and Fixed Income - Penghua Fund indicates that the domestic economy is in a weak recovery trend, with real estate still seeking a bottom and external trade policies potentially dragging down exports [17] - Boshi Fund asserts that the fundamental landscape supports long-term bonds, with slow recovery in real estate and potential downward pressure on external demand [18] - CICC suggests that long-term interest rates may experience narrow fluctuations due to recent liquidity easing and a stable economic environment [19] Asset Allocation - Guolian Minsheng Securities recommends a barbell strategy in a volatile market, focusing on sectors with reasonable valuations and strong fundamentals while avoiding high-risk speculative areas [21][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the tariff "storm" settles, A-shares are expected to recover, while Hong Kong stocks may undergo adjustments, and US stocks are likely to repair [2] - The performance of core assets has shown strong operational resilience, indicating that the opportunity for left-side layout has matured [2] - The market is transitioning from "speculating on expectations" to focusing on performance verification, with increased attention on A-share quarterly reports [3] Group 2 - The short-term outlook for A-shares is a period of adjustment, with performance certainty becoming the main driver for excess returns [4] - April is expected to be dominated by fundamentals, with opportunities across growth, consumption, and cyclical sectors [5] - The focus for the second quarter should be on verifying the recovery of real estate and consumption [6] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with three main investment themes: improving performance in the consumer sector, strong expectations for technology sector performance, and attractive high-dividend strategies [7] - The market's focus has shifted from technology narratives to the economy itself, with potential new opportunities arising from trade pattern restructuring [9] - The emphasis is on sectors benefiting from financial and consumption dividends, with a focus on state-owned enterprise restructuring and large financial institutions [10]

作 者丨吴斌,钱伯彦 编 辑丨包芳鸣,张铭心,江佩佩 美股再遭猛烈抛售! 3月2 8日晚间，美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿跌幅还在扩大。热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数一度跌超3%，纳斯达克指数跌2%，万得美国科技七巨头指数暴跌超11 0 0点，跌 幅2 . 3%，年初至今该指数跌幅已超1 4%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 41761.35 | -538.35 | -1.27% | -1.84% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 17445.34 | -358.69 | -2.01% | -9.66% | | града | 标普500 | 5609.50 | -83.81 | -1.47% | -4.63% | | NDX | 纳斯达克100 | 19426.67 | -371.95 | -1.88% | -7.55% | | MAGS | 万得美国科技七巨头指数 | 47309.67 | -1112.78 | -2.30% | -14.34 ...

Group 1 - The market adjustment is primarily driven by emotional factors, while supportive factors remain unchanged [2][3] - Policy support for the market's positive expectations is clear, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market [3] - Economic data from January to February shows steady improvement, indicating a positive outlook for the fundamentals [3] Group 2 - There are two key time points remaining in the year: the first is the opportunity arising from external risks settling in early April, and the second is the synchronization of the US and China economic and policy cycles mid-year [4][5] - The first key time point involves the resolution of external risks, including the outcomes of the US trade policy investigations and clarity on tariffs, which may lead to a focus on technology themes in April and May [5] - The second key time point anticipates a potential economic stimulus in China due to weakening US economic conditions and increased tariff pressures, which could lead to a significant style shift in the market [5] Group 3 - Short-term fluctuations in technology stocks do not alter the long-term positive trend, as the global economy is undergoing a restructuring under US tariffs, highlighting China's development potential [6][7] - Artificial intelligence is expected to drive industry transformation and technological innovation in China over the coming years, making it a central theme for the market [7] Group 4 - The upward trend in the market has not been broken, despite short-term fluctuations [8][9] - The current domestic economic recovery expectations remain intact, with A-share earnings likely to recover, and the market's short-term adjustments are not indicative of a trend reversal [9] - Focus areas include sectors with strong defensive characteristics and dividend advantages, such as emerging consumption, traditional Chinese medicine, renewable energy, and state-owned banks [9]

春季行情已经结束？3月24日，凌晨的三大重要消息全面袭来！ 一、养老金突发改革！财政部：中央财政拿出"真金白银"大力促消费，提高养老金、发放育儿补贴等增强消费能力。虽然还没正式公布，但很多机构都估计 这个比率会保持在2.5%到3%之间，甚至可能更低。 简单来说，大A从趋势上看，慢慢往上的逻辑不会变。在大蓝筹股真正启动之前，就是慢慢涨，然后急跌，又回到原点。等大蓝筹等价值洼地的票都启动 了，才有可能真正突破这个整数关，那个前高啥的。 二、A股上涨天数44日，从上涨时空看本轮春季行情或已步入后半程。 短期内，推动市场上涨的动力可能要弱一些了。首先，年初以来，在Deepseek主题的推动下，科技股表现得很牛，但从估值水平、成交额占比和换手率这些 指标来看，科技股短期可能已经阶段性过热了。 最近A股市场晃得厉害，上证指数跌破3400点，创业板指跌得更惨，市场情绪一下子跌到谷底。不过，回顾历史，每次市场情绪极度悲观的时候，其实都是 布局的好机会。那现在这种情况，我们该怎么办呢？ 其次，这轮A股春季行情的启动，也得益于港股的走强。后续南向资金的流入可能会回归到正常水平，如果增量资金退潮，港股可能会有波动，进而影响A 股的 ...

截至2 0 2 5年1月底，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的上市公司总市值超3 0万亿美元，远超全球其他 交易所。亚洲市场中上交所、日本证券交易所和印度国家证券交易所市值虽超5万亿美元，但仍 远低于美国交易所。从流动性来看，美股及深交所日均成交额均突破千亿美元，而东南亚部分市 场日均成交额不足1 0亿美元，反映出部分亚洲新兴市场的流动性仍较有限。回顾过去五年全球市 场规模和流动性表现，全球上市公司数量保持稳定，发达市场增长放缓，而中国和印度等新兴市 场成为推动增长的主要力量。美股市场仍然主导全球股票市值和流动性，纳斯达克和纽约证券交 易所的市值持续上升，受益于科技股上涨和流动性回暖。与此同时，中国大陆和印度市场的市值 与交易活跃度稳步提升，特别是深圳证券交易所成交量在2 0 2 4年底大幅攀升，显示出市场活跃度 的增强。相比之下，日本、中国香港、新加坡等成熟市场虽保持稳定，但整体增长动能有限。未 来，全球资本市场格局可能进一步调整，投资者对新兴市场的关注度或将持续上升。 文 ｜ 杨宇泽 顾晟曦 车宇璇 赵文荣 刘方 本报告聚焦全球股票市场的运行特征与结构变化，提供定量跟踪与横向比较，供投资者参考。基于 最新数据，报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the performance of the dividend style in 2024, analyzes the timing effects of the dividend style in a low interest rate environment from an overseas perspective, introduces dividend stock selection strategies and event effects, and provides an outlook on the future performance of the dividend style in the current low interest rate environment [1][10]. Group 1: Dividend Performance in 2024 - The dividend style showed strong performance in 2024, with excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index from 2021 to 2024, indicating a stable return profile [3]. - Since the end of May 2024, there has been a degree of internal differentiation within the dividend style, with financial and utility sectors maintaining stability while cyclical sectors experienced some pullback [3]. - Insurance funds have increased their allocation to dividend assets, as evidenced by the top holders of dividend ETFs [3]. Group 2: Timing of Dividend Style - The analysis draws on experiences from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan to assess how dividend and growth styles perform in low interest rate environments [4][14]. - Both dividend and growth styles performed well in low interest rate environments, with annualized returns of 21%, 11%, 8%, and 10% in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan respectively [4][15]. - Growth style is more sensitive to interest rate changes, with dividend style potentially having an advantage during periods of rising low interest rates [4][17]. Group 3: Dividend Stock Selection Strategy - A constrained dividend selection strategy, limiting industry and market capitalization deviations to within 5% of the CSI Dividend Index, achieved a stable excess return of 4.74% in 2024 and an annualized excess return of 7.65% since 2010 [6][33]. - Companies announcing high dividend plans typically achieve excess returns around the announcement date, with a notable effect observed in the period leading up to the ex-dividend date [6][38]. Group 4: Outlook for Dividend Style - The overall outlook for the dividend style in a low interest rate environment is positive, with expectations of absolute returns driven by interest rate trends and the influx of medium to long-term capital [7][37]. - The anticipated decline in interest rates in 2025 may favor growth style, but the expansion of medium to long-term capital inflows could further boost the dividend style [7][36].