Core Viewpoint - The company is currently engaged in spot sales of its gold products, primarily in the domestic market through the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and is open to exploring blockchain technology for real-time trading in the future [1] Group 1 - The company received an inquiry from investors regarding the potential integration of blockchain technology for real-time trading of its physical gold [1] - As of now, the company's sales model for gold products is focused on spot sales [1] - The sales region for the company's gold products is primarily the domestic market, specifically through the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1] Group 2 - The company has indicated that it will fulfill its information disclosure obligations if it decides to involve blockchain technology in its operations [1]

产业期现日报 G 55000000 投资次输业务资格·证监控可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月10日 林喜旎 Z0020770 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 电池级碳酸锂均价 | 74600 | 74600 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 工业级碳酸锂均价 | 72350 | 72350 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM电池级氢氧化锂均价 | 75200 | 75350 | -150.0 | -0.20% | 元/吨 | | SMM工业级氢菌化锂均价 | 70160 | 70310 | -150.0 | -0.21% | 元/吨 | | 中日韩CIF电池级碳酸锂 | 9.45 | 9.45 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/千克 | | 中日韩CIF电池级氢氧化锂 | 9.30 | 9.30 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/千克 | | SMM电碳-工碳价差 | 2250 | 2250 | 0.00 | 0.00% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated weakly, and SHFE copper had a narrow - range fluctuation. US employment data led to a restart of the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts and increased concerns about a US recession, affecting the non - ferrous market sentiment. Although the peak season is approaching, high copper prices have made downstream buyers hesitant, resulting in weak procurement. LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,739 tons to 279,140 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, and BC copper decreased by 502 tons to 4,418 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina's excess pattern is difficult to reverse, and the import increase adds pressure. Electrolytic aluminum starts a macro - micro resonance mode. With the Fed's possible rate cut in September, the start - up of downstream industries in some areas is restricted by environmental protection, and the inventory inflection point of aluminum ingots is postponed. The end of tax rebates for recycled aluminum restricts supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum in the short term [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.49% to $15,105 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.45% to 120,400 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 456 tons to 218,070 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 173 tons to 22,599 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased. In the new - energy sector, demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but raw - material supply was relatively tight. With the marginal improvement of ferronickel and new - energy sectors, opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 9, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 79,840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day, and the flat - water copper premium was 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 73,500 yuan/ton. LME copper registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,103 tons to 81,851 tons. COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,739 tons to 279,137 tons, and the domestic + bonded - area social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 21.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: On September 9, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 239,325 tons, and the SHFE warrants increased by 25 tons to 53,820 tons, with the weekly inventory increasing by 2,162 tons to 66,834 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On September 9, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 20,740 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 20,730 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The price of Shandong alumina decreased by 30 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton. LME aluminum registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 74 tons to 64,459 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1,518 tons to 124,078 tons. The weekly social inventory of alumina increased by 2.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On September 9, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,000 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel registered + cancelled inventory increased by 456 tons to 218,070 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 173 tons to 22,599 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons. The weekly social inventory of nickel increased by 460 tons to 39,930 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: On September 9, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SMM 0 spot price was 22,190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 51,025 tons. The weekly social inventory increased by 0.14 million tons to 13.99 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On September 9, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 269,790 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The SMM spot price was 270,400 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 207 tons to 7,773 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 2,355 tons [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premium charts from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price differences between near - term and far - term contracts [15][20][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The report presents LME inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical changes in LME inventories of these metals [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts display SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the historical changes in SHFE inventories [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: The report includes social inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report provides charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the historical trends of smelting profits in the non - ferrous metal industry [44][46][48].

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. announced the early redemption of "Tongling Ding 02" due to the stock price meeting the conditional redemption criteria [1] Group 1 - The stock price of the company has been above 130% of the conversion price (3.20 CNY/share) for fifteen trading days from August 13 to September 4, 2025, triggering the conditional redemption clause [1] - The redemption price is set at 100.063 CNY per bond, including accrued interest [1] - The redemption registration date is October 10, 2025, and the redemption date is October 13, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Any "Tongling Ding 02" bonds that have not been converted by the end of the trading day on the redemption date will be forcibly redeemed [1] - Following the completion of the redemption, the bonds will be delisted from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - Investors are reminded to convert their bonds in a timely manner and to be aware of investment risks [1]

Group 1 - The company has provided guarantees totaling RMB 80 million for its wholly-owned and controlling subsidiaries, and RMB 40.28 million for its joint ventures, while releasing guarantees amounting to RMB 28.29 million and RMB 38 million respectively [1][4][6] - The board of directors approved the 2025 external guarantee plan, allowing a total guarantee limit of RMB 262,995.58 million for wholly-owned and controlling subsidiaries, and RMB 140,667.02 million for joint ventures [1][5] - As of August 31, 2025, the total guarantees provided by the company amounted to RMB 193,466.15 million, which is 12.45% of the company's latest audited net assets [6] Group 2 - The main guarantee recipients include wholly-owned subsidiary Baiyin Youse Changtong Electric Wire and Cable Co., Ltd., controlling subsidiary Gansu Changba Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., and joint venture Gansu Defu New Materials Co., Ltd. [2][4] - The guarantees are structured as joint liability, with specific amounts allocated to each subsidiary: RMB 30 million for Baiyin Youse Changtong, RMB 50 million for Gansu Changba, and RMB 40.28 million for Gansu Defu [4] - The board believes that the guarantee plan is necessary to meet the funding needs for project construction and operations, and does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic tin prices fluctuated strongly. The main reasons were the positive macro - atmosphere and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, which led to high ore prices and pushed up the center of tin prices. - On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar was slow. The shortage of tin mines in Yunnan was still severe, with smelters' raw material inventory generally less than 30 days and low operating rates. Some smelting enterprises planned to conduct maintenance in September, further suppressing production. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises maintained normal production, but the shortage of crude tin supply made it difficult to increase refined tin production. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - On the demand side, it was the off - season for downstream consumption. Traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, the scale was still low, having limited impact on overall demand. The spot trading of tin was light due to weak terminal demand. - Overall, although the off - season consumption on the demand side was a bit weak, the short - term decline in supply was obvious. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate mainly. [12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost end: Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar have been approved, the resumption progress is slow. It is expected that the tin ore supply will not significantly recover until the fourth quarter. In July, the domestic tin ore import volume was 10,200 tons (equivalent to about 4,335 metal tons), a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, 688 metal tons less than in June. - Supply end: The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the shortage of tin mines in Yunnan led to low smelter operating rates. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - Demand end: The consumption of electronic products such as smartphones and tablets was sluggish. The growth of emerging industries such as servers and AI glasses was fast but the scale was low, having limited impact on tin solder demand. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, the component production decreased, leading to a significant decline in the demand for photovoltaic solder strips. The demand for tin in areas such as tin - plated sheets and chemicals was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises generally had low inventory levels and mainly purchased on - demand at low prices. [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content is provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented. [19] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level. [27] 3.4 Supply End - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow. Yunnan has a severe shortage of tin mines, and smelters' raw material inventory is generally less than 30 days. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in Jiangxi is difficult to increase due to the shortage of crude tin supply. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. [12] 3.5 Demand End - Semiconductor: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. - Electronics: In the second quarter of 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption continued to be sluggish, and it is predicted that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated the growth of consumer electronics to some extent, but the demand recovery was limited. - Automobile: In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year. - Home appliances: No overall summary is provided, but data on the production of various home appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs are presented. - Photovoltaic: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation volume growing by nearly 100% year - on - year. After the end of the rush - installation in June, the installation volume declined significantly. - Other: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year. [46][49][55] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance A supply - demand balance table from January 2023 to June 2025 is provided, including data on refined tin production, export, import, social inventory, social inventory change, and apparent consumption. [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the rising expectation of interest rate cuts may drive the overall strength of non - ferrous metals including nickel. Although the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, in the medium and long term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will strongly support nickel prices. The new - year RKAB approval also potentially benefits nickel prices, limiting the downside space. In the short term, the traditional peak season expectation of stainless steel in "Golden September and Silver October" is hard to be falsified, which may support nickel - iron prices. If the macro - interest - rate - cut narrative strengthens, there may be a phased restocking cycle leading to a stronger nickel - price market. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips in the future. The price range of the main SHFE nickel contract in September is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M contract is expected to be 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices are stable. In the Philippines, mines are strongly inclined to hold prices, and ferrous - nickel prices are rising this week, so iron plants can accept the ore prices. In Indonesia, the Halmahera region is still affected by the rainy season, but the weather in Sulawesi Island has improved. Overall, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is sufficient, and downstream smelters do not face raw - material shortages. In the future, although the short - term ore supply is abundant, ore prices are expected to remain stable under the background of the firm - to - rising nickel - iron prices [11]. - **Nickel - iron**: In terms of supply, the profit losses of domestic iron plants have been repaired but are still in the red, and the supply increase is limited. In the spot market, suppliers' quotes are firm, and low - price resources are scarce. On the demand side, the stainless - steel futures prices have stabilized this week, inventories have slightly decreased, market activity has increased, and with the approaching traditional consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October", stainless - steel plants are expected to increase production in September, supporting the demand for nickel - iron. Overall, nickel - iron prices are expected to continue to be firm - to - rising in the short term [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The spot inventory on the supply side is in short supply. Some traders have stopped quoting due to exhausted available goods, while some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers on the demand side still have purchasing needs, supporting the prices. Generally, the market - circulating spot of intermediate products is tight. Meanwhile, as a key auxiliary material for MHP, the price of sulfur has been rising recently, increasing the MHP cost. Driven by cost and supply - demand factors, the prices of intermediate products are expected to continue to strengthen [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate. At the macro level, the September Fed interest - rate meeting is approaching, and the market has high expectations for interest - rate cuts in September and later, making the non - ferrous metals sector perform strongly. In the spot market, the downstream purchasing power is average, inventories have not significantly increased, and the spot premium and discount are fluctuating [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price changes**: The spot price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 250 yuan/ton to 123,010 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian nickel rose by 420 yuan/ton to 121,340 yuan/ton. The LME closing price decreased by 27 US dollars to 15,236 US dollars, and the SHFE closing price dropped by 140 yuan to 120,850 yuan. The spot price ratio increased by 0.09 to 8.06, and the import profit - loss improved from - 6.20% to - 4.80%. The Russian - nickel premium remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel premium decreased by 3.8 US dollars/ton [15]. - **Position and inventory changes**: The LME position decreased by 0.68 million lots to 32.91 million lots, and the SHFE position increased by 0.31 million lots to 20.69 million lots. The LME inventory increased by 0.56 million tons to 21.53 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 2.64 million tons, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 0.51 million tons, the nickel - plate spot inventory decreased by 0.14 million tons to 3.51 million tons, and the nickel - bean spot inventory remained unchanged at 0.26 million tons [15]. - **Other price information**: In August, nickel - iron prices rebounded from the bottom. On September 4, the domestic high - nickel pig - iron ex - factory price was 938 - 953 yuan/nickel point, with the average price up 30 yuan/nickel point from the same period last month. In August, nickel - sulfate prices were firm - to - rising. On September 4, the domestic nickel - sulfate spot price was 27,770 - 27,970 yuan/ton, with the average price up 490 yuan/ton from the same period last month [24]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Domestic port inventories continued to increase. As of September 5, the nickel - ore port inventory was 13.0823 million tons, a 3.8% increase from the same period last week. Nickel - ore prices were stable. On September 4, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was 52.2 US dollars/wet ton, basically unchanged from the same period last month; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade ore was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.3 US dollars/wet ton from last month; the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine - produced nickel ore was 57 US dollars/wet ton, the same as last week [31][34]. - **Nickel - iron**: In July, Indonesia's MHP production was 40,000 nickel tons, and high - grade nickel matte production was 25,000 nickel tons, both basically unchanged from the previous month [41]. - **Intermediate products**: As of August 29, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 13,097 US dollars/metal ton, and the MHP coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.87, up 0.05 from last month; the high - grade nickel matte was 13,391 US dollars/metal ton, and the coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.9, up 0.05 from last month [46]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In July 2025, the national refined - nickel production reached 36,000 tons, remaining at a historically high level [51]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - change data was provided, but it is related to stainless - steel production, manufacturing, and real - estate industries [53][55]. - **Import and export**: No specific import - export data was provided, but the import - profit - loss situation was presented in the graph [57]. - **Inventory**: In August, the global refined - nickel inventory slightly increased. According to Mysteel data, on September 4, the domestic + LME visible inventory was 247,000 tons, a slight increase of 840 tons from the same period last month [60]. - **Cost**: No specific cost data was provided, but the production - cost and profit - rate graphs of different raw materials and processes were presented [62]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No specific supply - change data was provided, but the production and net - import graphs were presented [67]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - change data was provided, but the demand is related to ternary power - battery loading and ternary precursor production [70]. - **Cost and price**: No specific cost - and - price data was provided, but the cost, price, and profit - rate graphs of different processes were presented [72]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Historical data**: In 2023, the total demand was 3.23 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.3129 million nickel tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 82,900 nickel tons. In 2024, the total demand was 3.37 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.3972 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 27,200 nickel tons [77]. - **Forecast data**: In 2025, it is expected that the total demand will be 3.6024 million nickel tons, and the total supply will be 3.7688 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 166,400 nickel tons [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fell from a high, with a weekly decline of 2.22% and an amplitude of 2.86%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 272,460 yuan/ton. - Macroeconomically, the expansion speed of the US ISM Services PMI reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. The ADP employment growth in the US in August slowed down significantly to 54,000 people. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 237,000, reaching the highest level since June. - Fundamentally, although Wa State in Myanmar has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. - On the smelting side, the increase in production in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. - On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the recovery period of the peak season, and the recovery of orders is relatively slow. Recently, the tin price has oscillated downward, but most downstream and end - user enterprises still adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and some downstream enterprises make small - scale purchases. The spot premium has rebounded to 200 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased. LME inventories have rebounded, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. - Technically, as the position decreases and the price falls, the bullish sentiment is cautious. Attention should be paid to the competition around the MA10. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily, and pay attention to the range of 270,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fell from a high this week, with a weekly decline of 2.22% and an amplitude of 2.86%. The closing price of the main contract was 272,460 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic data in the US shows mixed signals. Fundamentally, there are issues in both supply and demand. Technically, the market is cautious [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and pay attention to the price range of 270,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 272,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,270 yuan/ton or 2.25% from August 29. As of September 4, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 34,425 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 400 US dollars/ton or 1.15% from August 29 [10]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.25, an increase of 0.02 from August 29. As of September 4, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.9, an increase of 0.08 from August 28 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 14 lots, an increase of 1,212 lots from September 1, 2025. The position of Shanghai Tin was 59,035 lots, a decrease of 15,494 lots or 20.79% from August 29 [20]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In July 2025, the import of tin ore concentrates was 10,277.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.58%. From January to July, the import of tin ore concentrates was 72,406.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.15%. In July 2025, the refined tin production was 15,448 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin production was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.34% [24][25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On September 5, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on September 4, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also the same as on September 4, 2025 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export and Profit**: As of September 5, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 8,105.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12,552.71 yuan/ton from August 29, 2025. In July 2025, the refined tin import volume was 2,166.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.34% and a year - on - year increase of 157.87%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin import was 15,110.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.88%. In July 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,672.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. From January to July, the cumulative refined tin export was 13,463.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.99% [34][35]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,230 tons, an increase of 220 tons or 10.95% from August 29. The total tin inventory was 7,773 tons, an increase of 207 tons or 2.74% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,397 tons, an increase of 124 tons or 1.7% from August 29 [43]. Demand Side - **Semiconductor Index**: On September 4, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,667.86, a decrease of 156.75 or 2.69% from August 27. From January to July 2025, the integrated circuit production was 29,454,570.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,009,313.4 million pieces or 20.49% compared with the same period last year [46]. - **Tin - Coated Plate**: As of July 2025, the tin - coated plate production was 110,000 tons, the same as in June 2025. The tin - coated plate export volume was 206,020.05 tons, an increase of 73,104.23 tons or 55% from June [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly. The US service industry data showed mixed signals, with strong orders but a contracting employment index and high prices. Weak employment data strengthened market expectations of a Fed rate cut. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex copper inventory increased, and domestic social copper inventory rose. Despite the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the consumption peak was not well - reflected in inventory performance. Although there are expectations of fundamental improvement, the upward price movement may be limited by the US recession expectations and high copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's复产 rhythm increased, and warehouse receipts began to accumulate, intensifying the oversupply expectation. However, due to factors such as the rainy season in Guinea and China's parade period, there were strong disturbances in the ore end. Downstream sectors started stocking up quickly before the "Golden September" peak season, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations during the peak season. Aluminum industry profits are shifting from upstream to downstream. Under the dual - drive of the Fed rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum, and there is room for the far - month spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. In the new energy sector, ternary demand is strengthening, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. With the marginal improvement of nickel - iron and new energy, opportunities for buying at low prices can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomic data from the US influenced market expectations. Inventory changes were mixed, and the domestic consumption season may boost refined copper consumption, but there are constraints on price increases [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price trends were weak, with changes in inventory and supply - demand relationships. Ore - end disturbances and downstream stocking behavior affected the market, and there were expectations of price increases for electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price declines and inventory changes were observed. Different sectors related to nickel, such as stainless steel and new energy, showed different trends, and there were potential investment opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory changes were diverse. For example, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 3016 tons [3]. - **Lead**: Some lead product prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included a decrease in LME lead inventory by 3350 tons and an increase in上期所 lead inventory by 982 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices decreased, and inventory changes were noted, such as an increase in social alumina inventory by 2.1 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel - related product prices mostly decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in LME nickel inventory by 1080 tons and a decrease in domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 121 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 zinc inventory by 793 tons and a decrease in LME zinc inventory by 475 tons [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 tin inventory by 75 tons and an increase in LME tin inventory by 30 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][13][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures is led by Zhan Dapeng, a science master, who serves as the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. The team also includes Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, focusing on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51][52].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views - This week, copper prices broke through and moved upward. The market order trading remained resilient, and the copper rod operating rate showed no obvious distinction between peak and off - peak seasons. The supply was continuously disturbed, and there was potential squeeze - out risk. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly and internal - external structure from September to October [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly. In August, the demand was in the seasonal off - peak, with improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory was expected to decline. In the short term, the downstream was in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to the long - term monthly and internal - external reverse hedging under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply increased, and demand was seasonally weak. Domestically, social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory declined rapidly. In the short term, it was expected to rebound, and in the long term, a short - position allocation was recommended [5]. - Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply was at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. Attention should be paid to the development of the riots in Indonesia [6][7]. - Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Supply decreased due to partial passive production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals remained weak. Attention should be paid to the development of the riots in Indonesia [10]. - Lead prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to be tight, and demand was in the peak season but with weak performance. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level shock next week [12]. - Tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply was affected by domestic and overseas factors, and demand had different performances at home and abroad. In the short term, it was recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, buy at low prices near the cost line [15]. - Industrial silicon prices changed. The resumption of production in Xinjiang was stable with an expected acceleration. The current supply - demand balance was in a state of slight inventory decline, and in the long term, it was expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [18]. - Lithium carbonate prices declined. The core contradiction was the imbalance between long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the price had strong downward support [20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices broke through and moved upward. The market order trading was resilient, and the copper rod operating rate had no obvious peak - off - peak distinction. The rumor of tax - refund cancellation in some areas affected the scrap copper market, and the supply was disturbed. The electrolytic copper production in September decreased unexpectedly, and there was potential squeeze - out risk [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly. In August, demand was in the seasonal off - peak, with improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory was expected to decline. In the short term, the downstream was in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to the long - term monthly and internal - external reverse hedging under the low - inventory pattern [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Domestic TC had difficulty rising, and import TC increased. In August, the smelting output increased, and overseas mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations. Demand was seasonally weak, and domestic social inventory rose while overseas LME inventory declined rapidly. In the short term, it was expected to rebound, and in the long term, a short - position allocation was recommended [5]. Nickel - Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply was at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. Attention should be paid to the development of the riots in Indonesia [6][7]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Supply decreased due to partial passive production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the overall fundamentals remained weak. Attention should be paid to the development of the riots in Indonesia [10]. Lead - Lead prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to be tight due to various factors such as low scrap battery supply and high inventory of battery products. Demand was in the peak season but with weak performance. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level shock next week [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply was affected by domestic and overseas factors, such as the low processing fee of domestic mines and the potential resumption of production in overseas areas. Demand had different performances at home and abroad, with weak domestic demand and strong overseas demand. In the short term, it was recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, buy at low prices near the cost line [15]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices changed. The resumption of production in Xinjiang was stable with an expected acceleration. The current supply - demand balance was in a state of slight inventory decline, and in the long term, it was expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices declined. The core contradiction was the imbalance between long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the price had strong downward support [20].