1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term liquidity depends on central bank's injections. Investors can maintain duration and seize opportunities from falling interest rates [2]. - In mid - July, there are both positive and negative factors for the liquidity. The key variable is the central bank's roll - over of outright reverse repos. DR007 is likely to fluctuate between 1.40% - 1.50%. There are few negative factors for the bond market. If there is a tightening trend in liquidity, a further decline in large banks' lending volume should be observed first [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: Is There a Tightening Trend in Liquidity? - **Yield Curve**: Yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds generally increased. For treasury bonds, 1Y yield rose 3bp, 3Y and 5Y rose 4bp, 7Y rose 3bp, 10Y rose about 3bp, 15Y and 30Y rose 2bp. For China Development Bank bonds, 1Y yield rose about 4bp, 3Y rose 4bp, 5Y rose about 6bp, 7Y and 10Y rose 3bp, 15Y rose 2bp, and 30Y changed less than 1bp [13]. - **Term Spread**: The spread between treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds increased. For treasury bonds, the short - term spread narrowed and the long - term spread widened. For China Development Bank bonds, the short - term spread was divided, and the medium - and long - term spread narrowed [16]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Liquidity - **Leverage Ratio**: It dropped to 107.3%. From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the leverage ratio decreased continuously during the week. As of July 11th, it was about 107.3%, down 0.69pct from last Friday and 0.58pct from this Monday [20]. - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily turnover of pledged repurchase this week was 8.2 trillion yuan, with an average overnight proportion of 89.57%. From July 7th to July 11th, the average daily turnover was 8.2 trillion yuan, up 0.61 trillion yuan from last week. The average overnight turnover was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.55 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the average overnight proportion was 89.57%, down 0.14pct month - on - month [26][27]. - **Liquidity**: Banks' lending volume continued to decline. From July 7th to July 11th, the lending volume of the banking system decreased. On July 11th, large banks and policy banks' net lending was 4.65 trillion yuan; joint - stock banks and urban and rural commercial banks' average daily net lending was 0.66 trillion yuan, and on July 11th, they had a net inflow of 0.91 trillion yuan. The banking system's net lending was 3.74 trillion yuan [31]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: It dropped to 2.87 years. From July 7th to July 11th, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.87 years (de - leveraged) and 3.21 years (leveraged). On July 11th, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.87 years, down 0.01 year from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) was 3.21 years, up 0.04 year from last Friday [45]. - **Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds**: It rose to 3.93 years. Among different types of bond funds, the median duration (leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds rose to 3.93 years, up 0.02 year from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) of credit bond funds rose to 2.98 years, up 0.01 year from last Friday; the median duration (de - leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds was 3.55 years, up 0.09 year from last Friday; the median duration (de - leveraged) of credit bond funds was 2.73 years, down 0.02 year from last Friday [48]. 3.4 Category Strategy Comparison - **China - US Yield Spread**: It generally widened. The 1Y spread widened 3bp, 2Y widened 7bp, 3Y widened 6bp, 5Y widened 5bp, 7Y widened 3bp, 10Y widened about 3bp, and 30Y widened 2bp [52]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: The short - term spread widened, and the long - term spread narrowed. As of July 11th, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds widened 1bp for 1Y, changed less than 1bp for 3Y, widened 2bp for 5Y, widened 1bp for 7Y and 10Y, changed less than 1bp for 15Y, and narrowed 2bp for 30Y [53]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance On July 11th, the concentration of lending for active 10Y treasury bonds, active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, second - active 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and active 30Y treasury bonds showed an upward trend, while the concentration of second - active 10Y treasury bonds showed a downward trend. For all institutions, it showed an upward trend [56].

Core Insights - Cash management products are gaining investor attention due to their flexible redemption, lower risk, and relatively stable returns, especially as bank deposit rates decline [1][2] - The average 7-day annualized yield for cash management products is 1.38%, with some bank products reaching nearly 3%, while money market funds average around 1.25% [2] - Regulatory policies have aligned the liquidity and redemption mechanisms of cash management products and money market funds, narrowing the gap in risk and return [2][4] Group 1 - Cash management products include cash management wealth management and money market funds, suitable for low-risk tolerance and high liquidity needs [2] - Investors should prioritize products from large institutions, considering factors like yield, redemption mechanisms, and fees [1][2] - High-yield cash management products may have small initial scales and could see yields drop as more funds are added [1] Group 2 - The liquidity design of cash management products, including subscription and redemption confirmation days, is crucial for investors [4] - Significant yield differences between products only become apparent with larger investment amounts, suggesting that investors should consider recent yield performance [4] - To enhance overall investment returns, investors should balance their portfolios across various asset classes like stocks, bonds, and gold based on their risk preferences [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance's stock closed down 2.23% on July 9, indicating market concerns about the company's performance and investor sentiment [1]. Company Overview - Xinhua Life Insurance Co., Ltd. was established in 1996 and is based in Beijing, primarily engaged in the insurance industry [1]. - The registered capital of the company is 311,954.66 million RMB, with Yang Yucheng as the legal representative [1]. Shareholder Activity - Huatai-PineBridge Fund's Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is among the top ten shareholders of Xinhua Insurance, having reduced its holdings in the first quarter of this year [1]. - The year-to-date return for the fund is 2.93%, ranking 1999 out of 3426 in its category [1][2]. Fund Performance - The fund's performance over various periods is as follows: - 1-week increase: 1.48% - 1-month increase: 3.99% - 3-month increase: 10.74% - 6-month increase: 6.84% - Year-to-date increase: 2.93% [2]. - The average performance of similar funds and the CSI 300 index is also provided for comparison, indicating that the fund's performance is below the average in some time frames [2]. Fund Management - The fund manager of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is Liu Jun, who has extensive experience in fund management since joining Huatai-PineBridge in 2004 [4][5]. - Liu Jun has managed various funds and has held significant positions within the company, contributing to its investment strategies [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced new measures to enhance the interconnection between mainland and Hong Kong financial markets, further solidifying Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and a hub for offshore RMB business [1][2]. Group 1: New Measures for Financial Market Interconnection - The PBOC is optimizing the "Southbound Bond Connect" mechanism to facilitate more domestic investors in accessing the offshore bond market, expanding the range of eligible investors to include securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and wealth management institutions [1]. - The offshore repurchase business mechanism under the Bond Connect will be optimized to enhance liquidity management for foreign investors, allowing for a broader range of tradable currencies including USD, EUR, and HKD, and simplifying operational processes [2][3]. - The "Swap Connect" mechanism will be improved to better meet investors' interest rate risk management needs, with plans to expand the number of quoting firms and adjust daily trading limits [2]. Group 2: Implementation Timeline and Specifics - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has announced that the optimized measures for offshore RMB bond repurchase will officially start on August 25, 2025, which includes allowing collateral bonds to be reused during the repurchase period and supporting foreign currency settlements [2][3].

Company Movements - Douyin has launched a new regulation prohibiting minors under 16 years old from live streaming, and those aged 16 to 18 must obtain written consent from parents or guardians to broadcast [5] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's M&A Review Committee approved China Shipbuilding's share swap merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, marking the completion of the largest absorption merger in A-shares in nearly a decade before the registration with the CSRC [5] - Ping An Life announced it continues to increase its stake in Postal Savings Bank's H-shares, surpassing 13% ownership [6] - Saily Medical reported significant uncertainty regarding the success of its therapeutic hypertension vaccine project trial [6] - Jilin Jin Kong and its concerted actions plan to acquire all issued shares of Jilin's first rural commercial bank, which intends to delist from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6] Industry News - The second batch of new floating rate funds has been officially submitted, with multiple fund companies including E Fund, Huatai-PB, and others applying for both market-wide and industry-specific products [4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the ETF risk management guidelines, requiring fund managers to enhance the management of ETF subscription and redemption lists [4] - New regulations for algorithmic trading will take effect on July 7, with recent rumors about high-frequency trading frequency changes being denied by several quantitative private equity firms [4] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on development planning, market regulation, and safety supervision [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on the photovoltaic industry to address low-price competition and guide capacity optimization, with industry leaders supporting policy directions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tension between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump regarding interest rate policies, highlighting the potential for upcoming rate cuts amid political pressures and economic data fluctuations. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Powell asserts that not lowering interest rates is appropriate, despite Trump's demand for a 2-3 percentage point cut [1] - The probability of a July rate cut is only 21%, while September's likelihood has surged to over 90% [3] - The Fed's dot plot reveals a split among decision-makers, with 7 out of 19 opposing any rate cuts this year, while 8 support two cuts [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and income dropped by 0.4%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [3] - The conflicting signals of rising inflation and weak consumption have led to heightened expectations for multiple rate cuts this year [3] Group 3: Political Pressures - Trump's threats to appoint a new Fed chair who supports rate cuts create a challenging environment for Powell, who emphasizes the Fed's independence [7] - The potential for Trump to announce a new Fed chair nomination as early as September raises concerns about the Fed's autonomy [4] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement to terminate trade negotiations with Canada, the S&P 500 index experienced a sudden drop, reflecting the market's sensitivity to political developments [8] - Concurrently, news of potential tariff cancellations on China signals a thaw in U.S.-China trade relations, positively impacting tech and shipping stocks [9] Group 5: Global Economic Implications - Trump's secretive efforts to lift sanctions on Iran could lead to significant shifts in oil prices, depending on the U.S. administration's future actions [11] - The influx of 21.825 billion yuan into China's capital market from newly raised floating-rate funds indicates a positive trend for A-shares, providing much-needed liquidity [12]

Group 1: Special Bonds and Economic Support - In the first half of the year, the issuance of special bonds increased by approximately 44.7% year-on-year, reaching about 21,607 billion yuan compared to 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds this year, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [1] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6% year-on-year from January to May, indicating a strong fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector in the US - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49, indicating a contraction for the fourth consecutive month, with new orders index dropping to 46.4 [3] - The Markit Manufacturing PMI showed a contrasting figure of 52.9, suggesting a recovery in domestic manufacturing, particularly among small and medium enterprises [4] - The divergence between ISM and Markit PMIs reflects a stronger domestic demand while external demand remains weak, influenced by uncertainties in US tariff policies [3][4] Group 3: Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale Initiative - Taobao Flash Sale announced a substantial subsidy plan of 500 billion yuan to enhance consumer engagement and support merchants through various financial incentives [5] - The initiative aims to reshape user perception of the Taobao app and significantly boost order volume, which has already surpassed 60 million daily orders since its launch [6] - This aggressive subsidy strategy indicates Alibaba's commitment to the local lifestyle sector and its willingness to invest heavily in customer and merchant benefits [6] Group 4: Automation and AI in Banking - Bank of New York Mellon has deployed dozens of AI-driven "digital employees" to work alongside human staff, marking a significant step towards automation in the banking sector [7] - Goldman Sachs has introduced AI assistants to its workforce, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and user experience [7] - The trend of integrating AI into banking operations suggests a shift towards more automated processes, potentially reducing the need for human labor in certain tasks [8] Group 5: Amazon's Robotics Expansion - Amazon has reached a milestone of 1 million robots in its global operations, significantly automating its logistics and warehouse processes [9] - The company employs approximately 1.56 million people, with a substantial portion working in warehouses, indicating a growing reliance on robotic assistance [9] - The ongoing automation efforts may lead to a reduction in low-skilled jobs, as robots increasingly take over repetitive tasks [10] Group 6: Regulatory Changes in Precious Metals Transactions - The People's Bank of China has implemented new regulations requiring cash transactions over 100,000 yuan in precious metals to be reported, enhancing transparency in the market [11][12] - This regulation aims to mitigate risks associated with money laundering and illegal fund flows, particularly in the gold market [13] - The impact on the normal gold investment market is expected to be minimal, although it may restrict the movement of unaccounted assets overseas [13] Group 7: Fund Performance in the Market - In the first half of the year, 87.1% of public funds reported positive returns, with 44 funds achieving returns over 50% [14] - The performance of equity funds has been driven by structural market trends, particularly in the innovation and North Exchange sectors [14][15] - Despite the overall positive performance, many investors remain cautious due to previous losses, affecting their enthusiasm for new fund subscriptions [15] Group 8: Stock Market Trends - The stock market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.09%, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [16] - Traditional sectors such as steel and renewable energy showed signs of recovery, while technology and defense stocks faced corrections [16][17] - The market's focus appears to be shifting towards traditional industries and potential recovery stories rather than new narratives [17]

Group 1: Wealth Management Trends - The wealth management scale decreased by CNY 286.4 billion to CNY 31.33 trillion during the week of June 23-27, 2025, marking a significant decline compared to previous years[1] - Historical data shows that the decline in the second quarter has consistently exceeded CNY 1.1 trillion in recent years, indicating a seasonal pattern[2] - In July, the wealth management scale typically experiences seasonal expansion, with historical increases ranging from CNY 1.4 trillion to CNY 2.2 trillion, while June declines are generally between CNY 0.8 trillion and CNY 1.5 trillion[3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average daily purchase of liquidity management assets, such as certificates of deposit, was CNY 12.9 billion from June 16-27, significantly higher than the average of CNY 1.4 billion during the same period in 2022-2024[4] - The average leverage ratio in the interbank market rose from 108.00% to 108.11% during the week of June 23-27, indicating increasing leverage despite a controlled liability pressure on banks[5] - The weighted issuance rate of certificates of deposit decreased to 1.64%, reflecting manageable pressure on banks' balance sheets[6] Group 3: Fund Duration and Risk Indicators - The duration of medium- and long-term bond funds decreased, with the duration of interest rate-based funds dropping from 5.29 years to 5.11 years, while credit-based funds saw a slight decrease from 2.44 years to 2.41 years[7] - The overall negative yield rate for wealth management products decreased to 1.46%, down 2.55 percentage points from the previous week, indicating improved performance[8] - The proportion of underperforming wealth management products fell to 16.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, suggesting a stabilization in product performance[9]

A股 Market - The Hong Kong IPO market has been robust in the first half of the year, with 31 listings and a total fundraising amount of 884 billion HKD, surpassing last year's total and regaining the top position globally for IPO financing [2] - On June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up over 1%, reaching a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index rose over 3%, with total market turnover on that day reaching 16,394 billion CNY and over 3,900 stocks rising [2] - China Construction Bank successfully raised 105 billion CNY through a private placement of A-shares, with the funds allocated to supplement its core Tier 1 capital [2] - Recent months have seen significant licensing deals in China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, including a deal by 3SBio worth over 6 billion USD and a strategic collaboration between CSPC and AstraZeneca valued at 5.33 billion USD [2] REITs - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have recently approved a batch of public REITs, with notable fund managers like China Asset Management and Southern Fund among the approved entities, alongside newcomer CCB Financial [3] Financial Sector - As of June 26, both onshore and offshore RMB against USD have surpassed 7.16, with the offshore rate peaking at 7.1525 and the onshore rate at 7.1565, marking the highest levels since mid-November last year [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 365.3 billion CNY, resulting in a net injection of 209 billion CNY after accounting for maturing reverse repos [4] - The first batch of 26 new floating-rate funds has raised over 12.6 billion CNY, with several funds exceeding 1 billion CNY in fundraising [4] - Recent disclosures indicate that the scope of special bonds is expanding, with new uses including government investment funds and addressing local government debts [4] - The cross-border payment system has officially launched, allowing real-time remittances between residents of mainland China and Hong Kong [4] Consumer Market - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to boost consumption, with retail sales in the Yangtze River Delta showing positive growth in the first five months of the year [5] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has developed guidelines for adjusting the basic medical insurance directory, indicating a growing role for commercial health insurance in the multi-tiered medical security system [5] - A new implementation plan for high-quality development of inclusive finance has been released, aiming to establish a comprehensive inclusive financial system over the next five years [5] - Several cities have expanded the use of housing provident funds to support down payments for home purchases [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the low interest rate environment on traditional investment strategies and emphasizes the need for new approaches to achieve financial freedom in this changing landscape [3][24]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - Five years ago, a bank's large time deposit offered a 4% interest rate, providing an annual income of 40,000 yuan from a principal of 1 million yuan, which has now decreased to just over 10,000 yuan [2][3]. - The shift to a "1 era" in fixed deposit rates highlights the erosion of purchasing power, with a historical example showing that 10,000 yuan in 1990 would only allow for 1.3 square meters of housing today, down from 8 square meters [4]. Group 2: Cash Management Products - Cash management products, such as money market funds and interbank certificate index funds, are recommended for maintaining liquidity and providing slightly higher returns than regular savings [5][6]. - The annualized return for the money market fund index is approaching 1%, while the interbank certificate index fund has a return of 1-2% with minimal drawdown [5][6]. Group 3: Fixed Income Assets - Pure bond funds and "fixed income+" strategies are suggested for medium-term investments, as they have historically provided steady returns even during market downturns [7][11]. - The yield on ten-year government bonds is currently around 1.6-1.7%, while specialized bond funds can achieve returns of 2-3% [11]. Group 4: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The emergence of REITs offers a new solution for real estate investment, providing liquidity and cash flow through rental income and asset appreciation [13][17]. - The average dividend yield for REITs is around 4-5%, making them an attractive alternative to traditional property investments [14][17]. Group 5: Equity Assets - Dividend-paying stocks, particularly in the A-share market, are highlighted as viable options in a low interest rate environment, with dividend yields exceeding 5% [18][22]. - Historical data shows that dividend assets not only provide stable cash flow but also exhibit defensive characteristics during market fluctuations [19][20]. Group 6: Investment Principles - Investors are advised to adjust their expectations regarding returns and embrace market volatility as a necessary condition for achieving excess returns in the current financial landscape [23][24]. - The focus should shift from seeking "perfect assets" to building a diversified portfolio that can adapt to changing market conditions [24].