全年进出口总值45.47万亿元，创历史新高，继续保持全球货物贸易第一大国地位；进出口实现3.8%的 较快增长，这是连续第九年保持增长，也是入世以来时间跨度最长的连续增长。2025年，中国外贸展现 出强大的韧性和活力。 [ 责编：杨亚楠 ] 进口更加多元。多元不是"独善其身"的选择，而是"互利共赢"的实践。我国超大规模市场潜力持续释 放，也为世界提供市场开拓新机遇。中国大市场，世界大机遇。最新国际数据显示，2025年前三季度， 我国已成为79个国家和地区的主要出口目的地，比2024年全年增加3个。2025年我国进口18.48万亿元商 品，占全球的进口份额保持在10%左右。超大规模市场中生产和消费需求有效释放，为各国提供了广阔 的市场空间和合作机遇。 一系列稳外贸政策帮助企业稳订单拓市场，为外贸多元化提供坚实的保障。跨境贸易便利化政策措施先 行先试，在全国推广复制，助力企业降低成本，促进跨境物流高效通畅。 通江达海的物流通道延伸到更多市场，为外贸多元化铺就更广阔的道路。在山东烟台港，中非班轮2025 年发运量同比增长49%，创历史新高，对接中国大市场和非洲特色产业；在宁波舟山港，全球首条中欧 北极集装箱快航航线开 ...

华税 HUASHUI 外贸行业出口退税 合规报告 2026 华税律师事务所 二〇二六年一月 外贸行业出口退税合规报告（2026） 前育 出白退税是一项国际通行的税收制度，指对已报关出口的货物，邀还或免征 其春国内生套。流通环节色激纳的增值税和消费税，从简使出我货物以不含税价 格进入国际市场，增强竞争力，开道免间际双重征税，妮进对外钮易发展，近年 来，国家特续优化出自退税务，办理流程不断简化，教半显奢提升，此同时 海关无凯建通关，外汇管理改草：跨境人民币结算便利化等拳措协同推进为留 日企业营造了更加商效便利的者商环境，有力助推外增长 在促发展的同时我国对外贸行业同祥坚持严解奢企业在享受道 单与服务便利的尚时，出通临监管更精雅，执法更严格，跨部协同更整等的全 规环境，在政策层雨，联网涉税信息报送规定）惠笑于优化企业所得税预频 纳税理推有关争项的公告学多项政策发市，对外置行业，尤其是跨境电高产 深运影腾，建外，2026年驿享增值税法及其实施条倒的正式施行出对外贸企 业台规连理提出了新要求，在临管层面，多部门联合打税犯罪的力度不断用 大，自国家总务息员、最高人民法院，最高大民检综院等多次持买单配票，低 首高报，循环出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current equity market, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, presents a favorable investment period despite a lack of clear investor sentiment, as the market is in a unique phase of adjustment [1] Economic Recovery and Structural Changes - The concerns that have weighed on the market in recent years are gradually subsiding, particularly in the real estate sector, where the negative impact on consumer wealth and spending is diminishing [2] - China's export structure has diversified, reducing reliance on single markets, with high-value products like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells gaining prominence [2] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery as previous over-expansion leads to clearer supply constraints, improving the supply-demand relationship [2] - The capital market is undergoing changes, with a more restrained financing pace and increased emphasis on dividends and share buybacks, indicating a focus on investor returns [2] Industry Trends: Technology, New Energy, and Cycles - The investment framework emphasizes that technology, new energy, and cyclical industries are interconnected, reflecting different stages of industrial logic [3] - In technology, the focus is on certainty and the ability to deliver results rather than short-term gains, with particular attention on sectors benefiting from the AI wave, such as internet and consumer electronics [3] - New energy sectors are characterized by supply-demand structural changes, with capital expenditure contracting while downstream demand continues to grow, indicating investment opportunities [3] - The cyclical sector is assessed based on clear supply constraints and stable competitive landscapes, where supply-side changes can lead to profit improvements even with limited demand growth [3] Investment Strategy and Company Quality - The core of the investment strategy is to seek value across different industrial cycles rather than betting on a single direction, with technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors resonating in terms of industrial logic and valuation [4][5] - Company quality is prioritized, with a focus on firms that possess clear competitive advantages and sustainable growth potential, as limited growth can restrict shareholder returns [6] - The approach to left-side positioning is more cautious, emphasizing participation during clearer industrial trends and balancing return potential with risk control over a 3 to 12-month horizon [6] - Research collaboration is crucial, with the value of research lying in its ability to support real investment decisions, enhancing the efficiency of investment research conversion [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the current market adjustments, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks represent a favorable investment period in the long term, as the core factors suppressing the equity market are gradually entering a phase of adjustment [1][2] - Economic recovery is supported by the diminishing impact of the real estate sector, a diversified export structure, and the gradual recovery of manufacturing supply-demand relationships [2] - The capital market is experiencing changes in its institutional environment, with a more restrained financing pace and increased emphasis on dividends and buybacks by listed companies, indicating a focus on investor returns [2] Group 2 - The investment framework emphasizes the interrelation of technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors, focusing on the position of industries within their respective cycles [3][4] - In technology investments, the focus is on certainty and the ability to deliver results, particularly in sectors benefiting from the AI wave, such as internet and consumer electronics [3] - New energy investments are driven by supply-demand structural changes, with a focus on sectors nearing critical points in their cycles, rather than being influenced by market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The core of the investment strategy is to seek value across different industrial cycles rather than betting on a single direction, allowing for better adaptability in structural market conditions [4] - The quality of companies is prioritized, with a focus on those with clear competitive advantages and sustainable growth potential, which can endure through cycles [5] - The approach to left-side positioning is more cautious, emphasizing participation during clearer industrial trends and balancing return elasticity with risk control [6] Group 4 - The importance of research collaboration is highlighted, with the value of research lying in its ability to support real investment decisions, ensuring patience and restraint in structural markets [6]

封关首月，离岛免税市场也交出一份亮眼答卷。据统计，自2025年12月18日至2026年1月17日，海口海 关共监管离岛免税购物金额48.6亿元，同比增长46.8%；购物人数74.5万人次，同比增长30.2%；购物件 数349.4万件，同比增长14.6%。消费者购物热情高涨，充分展现出离岛免税市场的澎湃活力。 此外，海南自贸港还吸引更多旅客通过海南口岸进出境，一个月来，海关共监管海南空港口岸进出境人 员31.1万人次，同比增长48.8%。 目前，海口海关以智慧监管为引擎，从商品入库到旅客提货，构建了一套全链条、智能化、高效率的海 关监管服务模式。依托大数据平台和"集中+自动"审单系统，实现免税品"即到即报、即审即放"，显著 节约企业时间与物流成本，为封关平稳运行提供有力保障。 本报北京1月18日电(记者王俊岭)记者18日从海关总署了解到，海南自贸港封关以来，各项政策扎实推 进，口岸通关顺畅高效，整体运行平稳有序。据海口海关统计，自2025年12月18日封关以来截至2026年 1月17日，海关在"一线"监管"零关税"货物7.5亿元，在"二线"监管销往内地的加工增值免关税货物 8586.7万元。受海南自贸港封关利好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current equity market, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, presents a favorable investment period despite a disconnect between market performance and investor sentiment [1] Economic Recovery and Structural Changes - The core variables that have caused market concerns in recent years, such as real estate, foreign trade structure, and manufacturing supply-demand relationships, are undergoing significant adjustments [2] - The real estate sector has experienced substantial adjustments since 2021, leading to a gradual reduction in its negative impact on consumer wealth and spending [2] - China's reliance on a single export market has decreased, with a more diversified export structure and an increase in high-value-added products, reducing overall external risk exposure [2] - The manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery as capital expenditures have declined, leading to clearer supply constraints and a correction of previous over-expansion impacts [2] - The capital market is also evolving, with a more restrained financing pace and increased emphasis on dividends and share buybacks, indicating a focus on investor returns [2] Industry Trends: Technology, New Energy, and Cycles - The investment framework emphasizes that technology, new energy, and cyclical industries are interconnected and reflect different stages of industrial logic [3] - In technology, the focus is on certainty and the ability to deliver results rather than short-term gains, with particular attention on sectors benefiting from the AI wave, such as internet and consumer electronics [3] - New energy investments are driven by supply-demand structural changes, with some sectors experiencing reduced capital expenditures while downstream demand continues to grow [3] - The cyclical sector is assessed based on structural judgments, focusing on industries with clear supply constraints and stable competitive landscapes, where supply-side changes can enhance profitability even with limited demand growth [3] Portfolio Structure - The core of the portfolio structure is not to bet on a single direction but to find value across different industrial cycles [4] - The current stage allows for a resonance among technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors in terms of industrial logic, valuation levels, and verifiability, enhancing the portfolio's adaptability in structural markets [4] Company Quality Focus - The emphasis is placed on company quality, with a preference for long-term holdings that possess clear competitive advantages and sustainable growth potential [5][6] - Companies must demonstrate the ability to navigate through cycles and consistently deliver performance, with dividends and buybacks seen as indicators of mature corporate governance [6] - A more cautious approach to left-side positioning is adopted, with a focus on participating during clearer industrial trends and balancing return potential with risk control over a 3 to 12-month horizon [6] - The importance of research collaboration is highlighted, with the goal of supporting real investment decisions and maintaining patience and discipline to achieve returns in structural markets [6]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significant growth in foreign trade enterprises, with 5,132 new registered foreign trade companies since the closure on December 18, 2025 [1] - The average approval time for enterprise registration has been reduced by nearly 60%, with over 100 inquiries received daily through a single hotline [1] - In the first month of operation, customs regulated zero-tariff goods worth 750 million yuan, benefiting local enterprises, hospitals, and research institutions [1] Group 2 - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan has shown remarkable growth, with a total shopping amount of 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [2] - The number of shoppers reached 745,000, reflecting a 30.2% increase, while the number of items purchased grew by 14.6% to 3.494 million [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has attracted more travelers, with 311,000 people passing through the Hainan air port, marking a 48.8% year-on-year increase [2]

集中开工热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) ——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 3 期） 本报告导读： 消费与科技领域政策协同加码，基建和房建建设进度较快，生产偏强。 投资要点： | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-23219820 S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美国：消费者信心持续修复 2026.01.11 开年经济温和回暖 2026.01.11 元旦"微度假"热度高 2026.01.04 地缘风险再起，国际油价或迎剧烈波动 2026.01.04 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | ...

Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port has successfully completed its first month of operation under the policy framework of "open on the first line, controlled on the second line, and free within the island" [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The total amount of duty-free shopping in Hainan reached 4.86 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [2] - The number of shoppers reached 745,000, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.2% [3] - A total of 3.494 million items were purchased, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [3] Group 2: Trade and Customs - Customs supervision recorded 750 million yuan in "zero tariff" imports during the first month [6] - The value of goods exported to the mainland under the processing and value-added duty-free policy was 85.867 million yuan [6] - The number of inbound and outbound passengers at Hainan's air ports reached 311,000, showing a year-on-year increase of 48.8% [6] Group 3: Business Development - Over 5,000 new foreign trade enterprises were registered in Hainan during the first month of the Free Trade Port's operation [1]

1月16日，广州召开2026年全市商务工作会议。会议全面总结了2025年商务工作情况，部署2026年工作 安排。同时，系统回顾"十四五"时期广州商务发展成绩，明确"十五五"时期商务发展思路。 "十四五"期间，广州多项指标领跑全国，进出口总额五年增长约30%，跨境电商进口规模连续10年居全 国第一，服务贸易、数字贸易快速增长。 "十五五"期间，广州将聚力打造国际消费中心、国际贸易中心、国际会展中心、国际产业链供应链中 心。2026年作为开局之年，广州将全力促消费稳外贸稳外资，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。 "十四五"成绩单 2025年工作回顾 主中头彻商品网上零售额超 3100亿元 增长 10.2% 全市首家市内免税店落地 离境退税门店增至1620家 离境退税业务量超9.1万份 增长9.3倍 实际外资 251.9亿元 增长9.1% 持续激发消费活力 创新推出"羊城消费新八景"IP 举办国际购物节、精品美食周等 主题活动超 2000场 消费品以旧换新、"广东优品购" 带动销售超 900亿元 惠及居民超 910万人次 荔湾太古里、番禺K11等 一批高端商业载体落地 新增两条省级特色商圈(步行街) 引入高能级首店近4 ...