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5月消费超预期,投资增速回落
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 09:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]
5月宏观月度观察:经济仍需政策呵护-20250619
Minmetals Securities· 2025-06-19 03:16
Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - Developed countries show relative resilience under tariff shocks, with May manufacturing PMI for developed nations rising to 50.0%, up 0.9 percentage points from April[6] - Emerging economies' manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from April, indicating higher reliance on global trade[6] - U.S. inflation remained stable in May, with CPI increasing by 2.4% year-on-year, a slight rise of 0.1 percentage points from April[8] Group 2: Domestic Macro Insights - China's retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, driven by early e-commerce promotions and trade-in policies[2] - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May, down 0.7 percentage points from April, with manufacturing investment declining for two consecutive months[16] - Exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 34.5% year-on-year in May, significantly impacting overall export performance[19] Group 3: Policy and Trade Negotiations - U.S.-China tariff negotiations saw a temporary breakthrough, with a joint statement on May 13 maintaining tariffs at 10% and suspending 24% tariffs for 90 days[3] - The ongoing trade talks are expected to face high uncertainty, with potential delays in reaching a final agreement exceeding 90 days[23] Group 4: Economic Risks and Outlook - Deflationary pressures persist, with May CPI down 0.1% and PPI down 3.3%, indicating significant deflation risks[20] - The overall economic data for May shows resilience, but concerns remain regarding the sustainability of consumption and export growth[20]
二季度GDP增长5%以上基本无虞,下半年或有新一轮增量政策出台
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 04:24
分析人士指出,"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力,共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示,5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示,社零超预期,一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加,另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法,尽管很多省份进行辟谣,但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳,虽然投资继续放缓,但消费零售表现亮眼,工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计,二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出,国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强,叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在,稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策,以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中,社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%,比上月加快1.3个百分点,创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示,1-5 ...
5月份部分经济指标继续改善,新动能成长壮大—— 高质量发展向优向新
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-16 22:03
Economic Overview - In May, the national economy demonstrated resilience, maintaining overall stability and progress, with stable growth in production demand and a generally stable employment situation [1][3] - The combination of policy effects has shown positive results in stabilizing the economy and promoting development [1] Industrial Performance - In May, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience and growth potential [2] - The high-end manufacturing sector saw significant growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9% and 8.6% respectively [2] - The digital economy's integration has accelerated, with the added value of digital product manufacturing growing by 9.1%, significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [2] - Green production is improving, with production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles increasing by 31.7% and 52.5% respectively [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reflecting enhanced consumer vitality [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown continued effectiveness, with significant year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment [4] - The tourism sector has also seen a boost, with domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [4] Trade Performance - In May, China's total goods import and export volume grew by 2.7%, with exports increasing by 6.3%, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade [7] - Despite a decline in trade with the US, trade with ASEAN, the EU, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative continued to grow, showcasing the diversification of China's foreign trade [7] - Private foreign trade enterprises have shown strong market adaptability, with their import and export volume increasing by 7% year-on-year in the first five months [7]
5月经济延续平稳增长,稳楼市扩内需政策仍将加力
关联内容 国家统计局答21:无人机、智能车载设备增长强劲 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 6月16日,国家统计局发布5月经济数据。 从5月经济数据来看,我国出口依然维持相当韧性,表现更亮眼的在于消费品以旧换新政策支持下的消 费在加快回升。不过,外部不确定性仍然较大,国内房地产投资依然在下行通道中,扩内需、稳楼市政 策仍需继续发力。5月生产端的数据表现更为稳定,5月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%,全国服务 业生产指数同比增长6.2%,经济延续平稳增长态势。 6月13日,国务院常务会议明确指出,要对全国房地产已供土地和在建项目进行摸底,进一步优化现有 政策,更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。另外,今年用以支持消费品以旧换新的3000亿元超长期特别 国债,目前已经下达1600亿元,剩余的约1400亿元资金也会加快下达。 政策推动消费加快回升 去年1500亿元"国补"资金收效良好,今年3000亿元"国补"资金的政策效应仍在持续释放。5月份,社会 消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%,比上月加快1.3个百分点,为2024年以来月度最高增速。 具体来看,受"国补"政策带动,5月份,限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通信 ...
2025年5月宏观数据解读:5月经济:破立并举,关注政策效能释放
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-16 14:07
Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, indicating positive service sector performance[13] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, driven by the early "618" shopping festival[19] - Major categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% year-on-year[23] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, below the market expectation of 4.0%[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7%[4] Employment and Labor Market - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation[6] - The job market remains sensitive to external economic conditions, with policies aimed at supporting key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers[6] Market Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a slight economic slowdown compared to the first quarter, with potential non-linear characteristics due to external uncertainties[1] - A dual bull market in stocks and bonds is anticipated in the second half of the year, supported by easing U.S.-China trade relations and risk mitigation funds[1]
关于当前中国经济的几个判断,国家统计局权威解读
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-06-16 13:04
Economic Overview - In May, major economic indicators such as industrial output, services, consumption, and investment continued to grow, with external trade maintaining stable growth despite pressures [1][2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year, up by 0.2 percentage points from April [2] Consumption and Investment - Policies promoting consumption have effectively released domestic consumption potential, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and other categories [2] - Investment in equipment and tools grew by 17.3% from January to May, contributing 63.6% to overall investment growth [2] - The production of new energy vehicles, tablets, and electric bicycles saw substantial increases in May, with growth rates of 31.7%, 30.9%, and 20.5% respectively [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing showing resilience despite a slight slowdown [4] - Manufacturing investment rose by 8.5% year-on-year from January to May, although this was a slight decrease from the previous period [4] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors contributed significantly to industrial production, with growth rates of 9% and 8.6% respectively [4][5] Foreign Trade - In May, the total value of imports and exports grew by 2.7%, with exports increasing by 6.3% [6] - Despite a decline in trade with the US, trade with ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries continued to grow [6] - The import of goods decreased by 2.1% in May, influenced by global trade uncertainties and falling international commodity prices [7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% [8][9] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by lower international energy prices and increased supply of food products [8] - The core CPI's increase indicates a gradual recovery in domestic demand and price levels [9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices across major cities [10][11] - New housing sales area and sales value saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May [11] - The inventory of unsold properties decreased, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence [11] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in the first five months suggests a stable growth trajectory, with expectations for the GDP to maintain a steady pace [12] - Predictions for the second quarter indicate that various projects and infrastructure investments may boost domestic demand [12]
5月份宏观政策持续发力 支撑经济平稳运行
Group 1 - The macro policies have been effective in enhancing market vitality and improving corporate profitability and expectations [2] - In the first four months of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - In April alone, profits grew by 3%, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2 - In May, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture saw year-on-year growth between 25.6% and 53%, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth, with a contribution rate of 63.6% [1] - The production of industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, shipbuilding, and boiler manufacturing saw significant year-on-year increases of 28.6%, 12.8%, and 11.8% respectively in May [1]
国家统计局:5月以旧换新政策持续显效,消费市场增长加快
news flash· 2025-06-16 07:09
Core Insights - The consumer market in May showed significant recovery, driven by effective consumption policies, early promotional events, and increased holiday periods, leading to a notable rise in consumer demand [1][4] Group 1: Market Sales Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with an acceleration of 1.3 percentage points compared to April, representing the highest monthly growth rate in 2024 [1] - The retail sales in county and rural markets grew by 5.4% from January to May, outpacing urban retail sales growth by 0.6 percentage points, with the county and rural market accounting for 38.9% of total retail sales, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product Category Growth - In May, retail sales of goods increased by 6.5%, with nearly 90% of product categories in large retail units experiencing growth. Notable increases were seen in sports and entertainment goods (28.3%), staple food (14.6%), and tobacco and alcohol (11.2%) [1] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in categories such as home appliances (53%) and communication equipment (33%), with growth rates accelerating by 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points respectively compared to April [2] Group 3: Online and Offline Retail Dynamics - From January to May, online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3%, outpacing overall retail sales growth by 1.3 percentage points, with online sales accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [3] - Physical retail stores showed stable improvement, with retail sales in large retail units growing by 4.5% from January to May, with warehouse membership stores exceeding 30% growth [3] Group 4: Service Retail Market Trends - Service retail sales increased by 5.2% from January to May, slightly outpacing goods retail growth, driven by enhanced service offerings and diverse consumption scenarios [4] - The tourism and dining sectors saw significant growth, with dining revenue increasing by 5.0% compared to the previous period, reflecting a strong recovery in consumer spending [4]
5月市场销售明显回升 以旧换新相关商品快速增长
news flash· 2025-06-16 04:47
国家统计局发布的最新统计数据显示,5月份,市场销售明显回升,以旧换新相关商品快速增长。国家 统计局新闻发言人付凌晖:5月份,社会消费品零售总额41326亿元,同比增长6.4%,比上月加快1.3个 百分点;环比增长0.93%。基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增势较好,消费品以旧换新政策持续显 效,限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通信器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长 53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。1—5月份,实物商品零售额49878亿元,增长6.3%,占社会消费品零售 总额的比重为24.5%。1—5月份,服务零售额同比增长5.2%。(央视新闻) ...