"我们认为，促进消费的政策支持有望延续，从而进一步提振消费信心，因此我们继续看好消费板块的机 会。"匡正同时指出。 继续看好高质量成长风格板块 在政策支持下，汇丰对A股持积极观点，继续看好具备高质量成长风格的板块。 根据万得发布的市场一致预期，AI基础设施、AI推动方和AI应用方这三类公司的2025年盈利增速均将较前几 年有明显提升。 日前，汇丰私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监匡正就当下投资市场发表最新观点。 匡正表示，货币政策重心将聚焦于增强政策传导、促进社会综合融资成本下行及推进结构性货币政策工具的使 用；在政策支持方向上，对科技创新、服务消费和养老等行业的资金投放力度或将加强。 "我们预计，AI的进一步普及和国产替代趋势的深化将有望使云业务收入加速增长。"匡正表示。 此外，匡正还指出，在资本支出方面，中国主要科技公司和通信服务商的资本支出近两年开始加速。未来，随 着中国大型科技公司的云业务加速增长，以及核心业务进一步与AI整合，用户数据将有望得到持续改善，带动 行业投资信心持续回暖。 新消费被注入结构性机遇 有关数据显示，受益于以旧换新补贴政策，年初至今，家用电器和音像器材、家具类零售额同比分别实现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy showed a moderate recovery in the first half of 2025, achieving a growth rate of 5.3%, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more aggressive, with the issuance of special government bonds increasing from 1 trillion yuan to 1.3 trillion yuan, and the support for the trade-in program doubling from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan [3]. - New special bonds amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan are expected to focus primarily on real estate acquisition [3]. - The government has maintained a high utilization rate of public fiscal deficits in the first quarter, indicating a continued expansion of fiscal spending [3]. Monetary Policy - Short-term interest rates have been lowered, with market interest rates declining more than benchmark rates since the second half of the first quarter [3]. - A series of financial support policies, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, have been implemented since May 7, which are expected to boost credit expansion and demand [3]. Consumption Sector - The consumption sector has seen a rebound in retail sales growth, driven by the trade-in policy, particularly in automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [4]. Manufacturing Sector - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively [5]. - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by approximately 8.4% in 2025, supported by policies aimed at enhancing new productive forces and equipment upgrades [5]. Future Outlook - The government is expected to implement expansionary policies in the second half of the year to support growth, particularly in weak areas such as real estate, services, and consumption [5]. - There is strong confidence in achieving a GDP growth rate of over 5% for the year, given the positive results from the first half [6].

国家统计局：5月份家电和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长53% 智通财经6月16日电，国家统计局16日发布数据显示，5月份，消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、 33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - China's national economy continues to show stable growth, with multiple indicators signaling positive trends despite a complex international environment [1][7] - In April, the industrial production showed a steady recovery, with the industrial added value for large enterprises increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [2][3] Industrial Production and New Quality Productivity - The industrial sector is transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, supported by effective policy measures [2][3] - High-tech industries are experiencing rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.8% and 10.0% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors includes aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% [2] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market is showing stable growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37,174 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [4][5] - The sales of essential and upgraded goods are performing well, with significant growth in categories such as food and sports entertainment products [4] - The "old for new" policy is driving substantial sales increases in home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8% and 19.9%, respectively [4] Investment and Trade Performance - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade remains stable, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% in the first four months of the year [7] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% in the same period, with equipment investment rising by 18.2%, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% in April, indicating a stable inflation environment [7][8] Economic Resilience and Future Outlook - China's economic foundation is solid, with a robust manufacturing sector and a large consumer market, providing strong resilience against various risks [8] - The government aims to enhance domestic demand and implement policies to support industrial development and innovation [3][5]

Economic Overview - In April, external shocks increased, but macro policies worked in coordination, leading to stable and rapid growth in major indicators, indicating a continued positive trend in the national economy [1] Consumption Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods related to the "old for new" policy, including home appliances, cultural office supplies, furniture, communication equipment, and building materials, contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total retail sales growth in April. Service retail sales grew by 5.1% from January to April, accelerating for two consecutive months. Domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday increased by 6.4% year-on-year, suggesting that consumption's contribution to economic growth is expected to continue strengthening [2] Policy Implementation - To better unleash consumption potential, it is essential to implement special actions to boost consumption, enhance residents' consumption capacity, increase quality supply, and improve the consumption environment, promoting healthy economic development and continuous improvement in people's livelihoods [3] Digital and High-Tech Industry Growth - In April, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, with aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing growing by 21.4% and 21.3%, respectively. The "Artificial Intelligence +" driving effect is strengthening, with the added value of the digital product manufacturing industry also growing by 10%. The transition to a green and low-carbon economy is deepening, with significant growth in new energy products, including a 38.9% increase in new energy vehicles and a 43.1% increase in charging piles [4] Investment Potential - The overall stability of economic operations this year, along with the effects of "two heavy" construction and "two new" policies, indicates that there is still significant investment potential in the country, supported by various favorable factors for investment growth [5] Price Stability and Macro Policy - Current prices are generally low, which increases operational pressure on enterprises and affects residents' employment and income. Therefore, it is crucial to promote prices to remain within a reasonable range. Future efforts should focus on continuing to leverage macro policy effects, expanding domestic demand, deepening supply-side structural reforms, improving economic circulation, and maintaining market order to promote reasonable price recovery [6] Economic Resilience - Despite a complex and severe international environment with many unstable and uncertain factors, the long-term positive fundamentals of the economy remain unchanged. Coordinated macro policies and collective efforts are expected to foster innovation and support the continued recovery of the economy [7]