融通基金李进： 聚焦趋势向上的行业 ◎记者 何漪 近年来，新生代基金经理逐渐崭露头角，融通基金李进就是一个例子。他拥有清华大学工学博士学位， 于2017年7月加入融通基金，从行业研究员起步，覆盖电子、计算机、新能源领域，积累了丰富的研究 经验。 2021年升任基金经理助理后，李进陆续管理融通产业趋势臻选、融通价值趋势、融通产业趋势等多只基 金，逐渐形成了系统的投资框架。以其代表作融通产业趋势臻选为例，截至7月17日，任职以来回报为 51.48%，远超同期业绩比较基准，任职年化回报率为19.15%。 保持均衡持仓 在组合管理上，李进表示，根据市场环境的风险偏好及产业趋势判断，调整价值类资产、成长类资产的 权重比例，控制组合风险；从看好的产业中挑选趋势方向更好的二级或三级子行业，均衡配置分散风 险。同时，持股相对集中，并适度采取逆向投资，在涨幅过高、估值透支时果断减仓。 在操作上，李进表示，基于行业比较时，选出景气度较高的资产，再评估资产的性价比。具体来看，通 过判断行业景气的周期位置、商业模式与壁垒、中长期空间、估值等四个维度进行综合考量，选择合适 的资产进入基金组合。 李进介绍，他的投资目标并非争夺第一，而是 ...

Group 1 - The majority of investment advisors maintain a neutral to optimistic outlook on the macroeconomic situation for Q3 2025, with over 70% holding this view [22][23][24] - Nearly 80% of advisors are bullish on the A-share market for Q3, with a structural market trend expected, favoring sectors like technology, new consumption, real estate, and finance [22][28][29] - The anticipated upper limit for the Shanghai Composite Index is projected to be around 3500 points, with 42% of advisors expecting it to be near this level [4][18][29] Group 2 - Advisors suggest that the highest value for asset allocation in Q3 2025 lies in equities, with 59% favoring this category, marking a significant increase [10][35][36] - A flexible thematic investment strategy is preferred by 44% of advisors, indicating a shift towards more dynamic investment approaches [6][37] - The expectation for liquidity in Q3 is leaning towards a relaxed environment, with 57% of advisors predicting a loose or neutral liquidity stance [26][27] Group 3 - High-net-worth clients have shown a strong inclination to increase their equity positions, with 70% reporting profits in Q2 2025 and a rising willingness to add to their investments [40][41][43] - The preference for high-dividend stocks remains strong, with 36% of advisors believing these stocks have reached reasonable valuations [32][39] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is gaining attention, with 38% of advisors viewing it positively, driven by policy optimization and valuation recovery [34]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the Hang Seng Index's continuous rise since June, the new consumption sector, which once led the Hong Kong stock market, has experienced a significant downturn, with key stocks like Lao Pu Gold, Mixue Group, and Pop Mart seeing substantial market value losses, raising concerns about the sustainability of their business models [3][4][5]. Market Performance - The new consumption sector has faced a collective decline, with Lao Pu Gold's stock price dropping over 37% from its peak, and Mixue Group's stock falling 25% from its high [5][6]. - The market capitalization of these leading stocks has evaporated by over 150 billion HKD, with Lao Pu Gold, Mixue Group, and Pop Mart all experiencing significant losses in value [7][8]. Financial Results and Expectations - Lao Pu Gold projected a sales revenue increase of 240%-252% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, yet its stock price continued to decline post-announcement [7][8]. - Similarly, Pop Mart expected a revenue growth of no less than 200% for the same period, but its stock also faced downward pressure [7][8]. Capital Flow Dynamics - The outflow of southbound funds has been a critical factor in the market adjustment, with a net outflow of approximately 4.1 billion HKD from the new consumption sector from July 2 to July 30 [11][12]. - In contrast, southbound funds have shown significant net inflows into the financial and healthcare sectors, indicating a shift in investment focus away from new consumption [12][13]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts express divided opinions on the future of the new consumption sector, with some optimistic about long-term growth potential driven by consumer upgrades, while others caution against high valuation risks and the need for a more cautious approach [20][21]. - The sector's long-term prospects are seen as promising, but the current market dynamics suggest a need for careful evaluation of individual companies' business models and sustainability [17][20].

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong has experienced a significant downturn despite the overall rise of the Hang Seng Index since June, with major stocks like Lao Pu Gold, Mixue Group, and Pop Mart seeing substantial market value losses and price declines exceeding 30% from their peak [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rebounded from a low of 23185.58 points on June 19 to a high of 25735.89 points on July 24, while the new consumption sector faced collective declines [2]. - Lao Pu Gold's stock price fell from a peak of 1108 HKD per share on July 8 to 690 HKD by August 1, marking a cumulative drop of over 37% [2]. - Mixue Group's stock price decreased from 618.5 HKD on June 5 to 463 HKD by August 1, a decline of 25% [2]. - The combined market value of Lao Pu Gold, Mixue Group, and Pop Mart dropped by over 150 billion HKD from their highs [3]. Capital Flow - A significant outflow of southbound funds has been identified as a key driver of the downturn in the new consumption sector, with a net outflow of 41.09 billion HKD from these stocks between July 2 and July 30 [5][6]. - In contrast, local Hong Kong intermediaries continued to increase their holdings, indicating a shift in investment strategy [6]. Company-Specific Issues - Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group are facing scrutiny regarding their business models and operational sustainability, with concerns about high production costs and declining capacity utilization [10][11]. - Lao Pu Gold's production outsourcing increased from 36% in 2021 to 41% in 2023, while its R&D investment ratio decreased [10]. - Mixue Group's capacity utilization rates for key ingredients have been declining, raising questions about its operational efficiency [10]. Future Outlook - Industry analysts express divided opinions on the long-term potential of the new consumption sector, with some optimistic about its growth driven by consumer upgrades, while others caution against high valuation risks [11][12]. - The market is expected to see structural opportunities, with leading companies likely to outperform while weaker concepts may face challenges [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, leading global markets, but has recently experienced increased volatility and a significant drop on July 30, 2025 [1][6]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has risen over 25% in 2025, outperforming major global markets such as the US and Japan, where the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have increased by 4.91%, 9.26%, and 8.32% respectively [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has only seen a cumulative increase of 7.88% during the same period, indicating that Hong Kong's performance is superior to that of A-shares [5]. Factors Driving Market Strength - Three main factors have contributed to the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market: stable economic growth with a GDP growth rate exceeding 5%, improved US-China relations, and positive developments in certain domestic industries such as innovative pharmaceuticals [8]. - The "Davis Double Play" effect, characterized by low valuations and strong profit growth, has attracted capital to the Hong Kong market, making it a preferred choice for global investors seeking to avoid risks associated with high-valued markets [9]. - The influx of southbound capital has significantly influenced the pricing power in the Hong Kong market, with southbound trading accounting for a larger share of total trading volume in 2025 compared to 2024 [9][10]. Capital Inflows - As of July 30, 2025, southbound trading has seen a net inflow of 853.7 billion HKD, surpassing the total net inflow for the entire year of 2024 [11]. - The total trading volume of southbound capital has exceeded 15 trillion HKD in 2025, indicating heightened trading activity compared to 11.23 trillion HKD in 2024 [12]. Future Outlook - Despite recent volatility, the Hong Kong market is still considered to have room for growth, as current levels remain significantly below historical highs [14]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing positive factors may continue to support the market, with expectations of favorable news emerging in the near future [15]. - The strong performance of the Hong Kong market is closely linked to foreign capital inflows and the significant role of southbound capital, with sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals gaining consensus among investors [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that QDII funds have increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, leading to improved performance of related funds [1][2] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the Penghua Hong Kong-US Internet Stock Fund increased its Hong Kong stock allocation from 42.65% to 54.93%, while reducing its US stock allocation from 38.47% to 28.54% [1][2] - The fund has shown strong performance with net value growth rates of 5.35% over the past 6 months, 13.10% over the past year, and 46.84% over the past 3 years [1] Group 2 - The fund's overall position has slightly increased, with a focus on large-cap stable growth stocks, while reducing exposure to certain US hardware stocks and internet stocks due to potential tariff impacts [2] - The top 10 holdings of the fund account for 57.91% of its net value, with significant positions in companies like Pop Mart, Tencent, Alibaba, and China Telecom [2] - The fund managers remain optimistic about the investment opportunities in the Hong Kong technology and dividend sectors for the second half of the year [3] Group 3 - The fund managers are focusing on the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the US economy and inflation, with macroeconomic data being crucial for understanding the economic fundamentals [3] - Despite signs of economic slowdown in the US, the combination of ample Federal Reserve policy space and a relatively loose fiscal policy suggests a lower risk of recession, supporting the stability of US tech stocks [3] - The fund's current holdings are primarily focused on domestic consumption and dividend stocks, which are expected to have strong cash flow and growth certainty, enhancing their risk resilience [3]

Group 1 - The performance of actively managed equity funds has significantly improved this year, with over 90% achieving positive returns and a notable emergence of "doubling funds" [1][2] - As of July 28, the average return of actively managed equity funds is 13.74%, with nearly 400 funds exceeding 30% returns and around 60 funds surpassing 60% [1] - Several funds have reported returns exceeding 100%, including the Changcheng Medical Industry Selected Mixed Fund at 120.89% and the Huatai-PB Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF [1][2] Group 2 - Funds heavily invested in the innovative drug sector have shown strong performance, with the sector continuing to rise as of July 29, indicating potential for more "doubling funds" [2] - Other sectors such as technology and new consumption are also performing well, with funds like the GF Growth Leading Mixed Fund achieving a return of 90.5% [2] - The risk appetite of private equity and financing funds has played a crucial role in driving market uptrends since June 23, contributing to a structural market rally [2] Group 3 - The market recovery has sparked enthusiasm among fund companies, with 48 equity funds currently in issuance and 39 more set to launch soon [3] - Public funds have increased their stock positions significantly, with the average allocation for equity mixed funds rising to approximately 85.99% as of July 25, up by 2.05 percentage points from July 18 [3]

Market Overview - As of July 28, Hong Kong's three major indices closed mixed, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.68% at 25,562.13 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.29% at 9,177.15 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.24% at 5,664.02 points [1] - Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, while the pharmaceutical and financial sectors exhibited strong trends [1] - Notable stocks included Tencent Holdings rising nearly 1%, Kuaishou up nearly 0.5%, and Meituan down over 0.5% [1] Southbound Capital - On July 28, southbound funds net bought HK stocks worth 9.253 billion HKD, bringing the cumulative net purchase amount since 2025 to 829.282 billion HKD, surpassing last year's total net inflow of 807.869 billion HKD [2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices closed mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, the S&P 500 up 0.02%, and the Nasdaq up 0.33%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new historical highs [3] - The Hang Seng Index ADR fell, closing at 25,353.70 points, down 208.43 points or 0.82% compared to Hong Kong's close [3] Key Events - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on July 31, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining rates unchanged and possibly lowering rates twice within the year [4] - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference concluded with over 300 project procurement demands announced, with an expected procurement amount of 16.2 billion CNY, and 31 major projects signed with investments exceeding 15 billion CNY [4] - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 points, indicating about an 11% potential upside from last Friday's closing price [4] Short Selling Data - On July 28, a total of 618 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with total short selling amounting to 25.577 billion HKD. The top three stocks by short selling amount were China Ping An at 1.385 billion HKD, Tencent Holdings at 1.274 billion HKD, and Alibaba at 973 million HKD [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities remains optimistic about opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to have significant recovery potential [6] - Recommended sectors include internet (e-commerce, local life), coal, cement, cyclical products, social services, textiles, and aviation, with a focus on high-growth and low-valuation industries [6] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong remains strong, but attention is needed regarding potential pressure from stock unlocks in Q3 [6] Related ETFs - Key ETFs include the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892), Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), and Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) [7] - Additional ETFs include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF (159323) and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [8]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund's allocation towards Hong Kong stocks has reached a historical peak, driven by unique valuation advantages and structural opportunities in the market, particularly in the healthcare and financial sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Allocation Trends - As of the end of Q2 2025, the number of public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks reached 4,048, with a total market value of 734.3 billion RMB, marking a 12.8% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - The allocation ratio of public funds to Hong Kong stocks rose from 36.9% to 39.8%, the highest since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. - Active equity funds showed a significant increase in their holdings of Hong Kong stocks, with a market value of 437.9 billion RMB, up 6.5% from the previous quarter [1]. Group 2: Heavyweight Stocks - The number of Hong Kong stocks in the top ten holdings of public funds increased, with Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, Alibaba-W, and SMIC being prominent [2]. - Tencent Holdings maintained its position as the largest holding for two consecutive quarters, reflecting strong institutional interest [2]. - The number of Hong Kong stocks held by active equity funds rose from 327 to 360, with the total holding value increasing from 318.3 billion RMB to 326.5 billion RMB [2]. Group 3: Stock Selection Logic - The stock selection logic for public funds in the Hong Kong market focuses on three dimensions: industry leadership, growth certainty, and reasonable valuation [3]. - Key sectors for increased allocation include innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption, which exhibit clear growth trajectories [3]. - The increase in allocation to Hong Kong stocks is attributed to valuation attractiveness, improved liquidity, and changes in the policy environment [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience an overall upward trend with rapid sector rotation, as current valuations are at a historically mid-to-high level [3]. - Suggested investment directions include high-dividend stocks for stable returns, sectors benefiting from favorable policies, and those with better-than-expected mid-year performance [3]. - The continuous inflow of southbound funds is anticipated to be a key variable influencing the future of Hong Kong stocks, with projections of over 1 trillion HKD in cumulative inflows for the year [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market has accelerated its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3600-point mark and average daily trading volume rising to 1.86 trillion yuan [1] - The overall market style is characterized by a performance hierarchy: cyclical > growth > financial > consumer sectors [1] - Recent policy announcements and national strategic plans have boosted economic recovery confidence, with the upcoming Politburo meeting expected to play a crucial role in market performance [1] Group 2 - The Jin Ying Fund suggests a balanced allocation to mitigate potential volatility, particularly in the financial sector due to the upcoming Stablecoin regulations [2] - In the technology growth sector, interest in AI applications and the semiconductor industry is expected to rise following the World Artificial Intelligence Conference [2] - Despite a potential decrease in "anti-involution" enthusiasm due to falling futures prices, related policies are likely to continue, with sectors like photovoltaic and building materials still worth monitoring [2]