根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国烧碱(折100％)产量为422万吨，同比增长5.2%；2025年1-12 月中国烧碱(折100％)累计产量为4653.5万吨，累计增长5%。 2020-2025年中国烧碱(折100％)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：镇洋发展（603213）,鄂尔多斯（600295）,北元集团（601568）,华塑股份（600935）,氯碱化 工（600618）,新疆天业（600075）,中泰化学（002092）,君正集团（601216）,嘉化能源（600273）,滨 化股份（601678） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国烧碱行业市场调查研究及未来趋势预测报告》 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. Although the "rush to export" has supported the spot, factors such as high social inventory, cost at a low - level compared to the same period, and high - level of warehouse receipts still exist. The long - term cost expectation of PVC has increased, and the future trend needs to focus on spot price acceptance, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The reduction of liquid chlorine price has strengthened the cost support, and the inventory in some areas has decreased. However, the demand side is generally weak, and the market purchasing power is insufficient. After the Spring Festival, the sentiment may improve with the resumption of work and restocking demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4938 yuan/ton (- 52), the East China basis is - 208 yuan/ton (+ 42), and the South China basis is - 98 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4840 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2945 yuan/ton (+ 15), the calcium carbide profit is 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), the production gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method is - 698 yuan/ton (- 39), the production gross profit of PVC ethylene method is 129 yuan/ton (+ 26), and the PVC export profit is 15.4 US dollars/ton (+ 0.2) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), the social inventory of PVC is 61.4 tons (+ 2.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 80.78% (+ 0.41%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene method is 73.69% (+ 0.44%), and the overall operation rate of PVC is 78.62% (+ 0.41%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 101.3 tons (- 5.8) [1] Market Analysis - The cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC since April 1 has led to strong export orders before, but recently the export orders have declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream operation rate has decreased significantly before the Spring Festival, and the social inventory has increased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period. The cost of upstream chlor - alkali production has been slightly repaired, and the calcium carbide price has increased slightly, while the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still hedging pressure on the disk [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1958 yuan/ton (+ 4), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 83 yuan/ton (+ 27) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 600 yuan/ton (+ 10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1000 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 858 yuan/ton (+ 31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 97.3 yuan/ton (+ 31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 525.71 yuan/ton (+ 10.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 44.29 tons (- 2.85), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.78 tons (+ 0.02), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.60% (- 0.20%) [2] - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (- 0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 0.00% (- 27.91%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.28% (- 0.15%) [2] Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, the downstream of liquid chlorine has reduced its load, the price of liquid chlorine has further decreased, the cost support of chlor - alkali has strengthened, and enterprises are more willing to support the price of caustic soda. Some spot prices of caustic soda have increased slightly. Although the current operation rate of caustic soda enterprises is high, the decrease in comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has increased the market's expectation of caustic soda maintenance, and short - sellers have reduced their positions, leading to a rebound in the disk. The low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased. However, the current demand side of caustic soda has a general receiving sentiment, the alumina plant has partially overhauled, the operation rate has decreased slightly, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The non - aluminum operation rate has decreased before the Spring Festival, and there has been some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices, but the subsequent purchasing behavior has weakened. The export orders have improved slightly. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the disk [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huashu Co., focuses on the production and sales of chlor-alkali chemical products, primarily PVC and caustic soda, and is building an integrated circular economy system in the chlor-alkali sector [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - PVC prices have recently increased, while caustic soda prices have declined [1] - The company possesses salt mine resources and a self-owned power plant, providing significant cost advantages [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company will continue to implement cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [1] - There is a focus on exploring new fields, extending the industrial chain, promoting product high-end development, and transitioning to a green and low-carbon model [1] - The aim is to drive sustainable and high-quality development for the company [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to active replenishment by non-aluminum downstream last week, liquid caustic soda plant inventories were seasonally reduced, but inventory pressure remains high. Shandong chlor-alkali profits decreased month-on-month and entered a state of theoretical loss. Currently, there are still few maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants, and there is no signal of production reduction in the industry, so the high operating rate is expected to continue in the short term. In February, some alumina enterprises will undergo maintenance due to factors such as environmental protection and flexible production, and the consumption of the alumina industry is expected to decline marginally. As the Spring Festival approaches, some non-aluminum downstream enterprises will gradually take holidays and stop work, leading to a seasonal decline in non-aluminum demand for caustic soda. Today, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong turned negative, deepening the theoretical loss of Shandong chlor-alkali, and strengthening the cost support for caustic soda. With the game between weak supply and demand and cost support, caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1900 - 2000, and the daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2120 - 2200 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1954 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the trading volume was 260,268 lots, a decrease of 187,719 lots; the open interest was 112,328 lots, a decrease of 20,346 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was -17,061 lots, a decrease of 9 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, and the converted 100% caustic soda price was 1844 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan. The price in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 237.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From January 30 to February 5, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. From January 31 to February 6, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month-on-month to 84.06%. From January 30 to February 5, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43% month-on-month, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 22.74% month-on-month to 27.91%. As of February 5, SH2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 1954 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating loads of plants in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China decreased slightly, and the average operating rate of caustic soda in the whole country changed little. Affected by the maintenance of some domestic alumina plants, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 471,400 wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.41% and a year-on-year increase of 2.97%. From January 30 to February 5, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 121 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the expectation of mercury - free transformation in the future raises the long - term cost expectation. The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the near term, and the market sentiment is expected to warm up after the Spring Festival [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4971 yuan/ton (-21), the East China basis is -231 yuan/ton (-19), and the South China basis is -141 yuan/ton (-39) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4740 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (-60) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -659 yuan/ton (+86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82), and the PVC export profit is 11.1 US dollars/ton (+2.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 28.8 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 80.37% (+0.39%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 73.25% (+2.64%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1] Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush to export" led to strong export orders, which have recently declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, and the downstream operation rate is expected to further decline. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level year - on - year. The cost of upstream chlor - alkali production has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures market still exists. However, the "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the mercury - free transformation expectation raises the long - term cost expectation [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1963 yuan/ton (+26), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -126 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 588 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1000 yuan/ton (-10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 821 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 139.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -562.21 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05), and the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 84.06% (-0.71%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Before the festival, the downstream of liquid chlorine reduced production, the price of liquid chlorine further decreased, the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali became stronger, and enterprises were more willing to support the price of caustic soda, resulting in a slight increase in some spot prices of caustic soda. Although the current operation rate of caustic soda enterprises is high, the decrease in comprehensive chlor - alkali profit increases the expectation of caustic soda maintenance. Short - sellers reduced their positions, and the futures market rebounded. The low - price spot drove some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased. However, the current demand side of caustic soda has a general receiving sentiment, the alumina plant has partial maintenance, the operation rate has slightly decreased, the unloading efficiency is average, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market has insufficient motivation to purchase caustic soda. The pre - festival operation rate of non - alumina industries has decreased, and there has been some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices, but subsequent purchasing behavior has weakened. Export orders have slightly improved. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the futures market [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC market's overall supply - demand pattern remains weak, but recent "rush - to - export" sentiment supports the spot, and the long - term cost expectation is raised due to the mercury - free transformation. The PVC outlook is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the market acceptance of spot prices, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. The export orders improve slightly. After the Spring Festival, the spot purchase may improve, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the downstream purchase rhythm [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,992 yuan/ton (+11), the East China basis is - 212 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 102 yuan/ton (+29) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 659 yuan/ton (+86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82), and the PVC export profit is 8.9 dollars/ton (+9.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 28.8 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.37% (+0.39%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 73.25% (+2.64%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1] Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush - to - export" led to strong export orders, which have recently declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant, with a slight decline due to some maintenance. The downstream operation rate is decreasing, and there is a further decline expectation. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit is slightly repaired, but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price is rising, the semi - coke price is stable, the calcium carbide profit is improving, and the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1,937 yuan/ton (+75), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton (-78) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 588 yuan/ton (-1), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 821 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 139.8 yuan/ton (-203.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 542.21 yuan/ton (-3.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05), and the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (-0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu is decreasing. The overall supply operation is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The demand side has a general receiving sentiment. Some alumina plants are under maintenance, the operation rate is slightly decreasing, the unloading efficiency is average, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda is decreasing. The non - aluminum industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season. The export orders are slightly improving. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream operation rate of liquid chlorine is decreasing, the liquid chlorine price is falling, and the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali is strengthening. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the futures market [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, there were rumors that the second - phase roasting furnaces of a large alumina plant in North China were shut down for maintenance, leading to inventory backlog and suspension of front - end feeding, to be verified next week [4]. - The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. The supply - side device load decreased slightly, with the chlor - alkali operating load rate dropping 0.81 percentage points to 90.63%, and the caustic soda output in terms of 100% purity being 881,400 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week. Although some device overhauls led to a slight reduction in supply, the overall supply was still sufficient [4]. - The demand side showed a differentiated operation, with rigid demand coming to an end. The operating capacity of the main downstream alumina dropped to 75.42% (a 2.34 - percentage - point decrease), weakening demand support; although the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased to 83.78%, due to the approaching Spring Festival, downstream stocking was basically over, and the overall willingness to receive goods became weaker [4]. - Inventory was depleted, and losses widened. The pressure on the upstream was relieved. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda factories in Shandong dropped to 109,800 tons, a significant 8.88% decrease from the previous week. Traders maintained low inventories due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the social inventory changed little. Profits were severely in the red, and the willingness to raise prices was strong. The average loss of chlor - alkali enterprises (including self - owned power plants) in Shandong expanded to 91.17 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by over 60% [4]. - It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will remain stable next week, with little room for significant fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and changes in alumina procurement prices [4]. - For trading strategies, the caustic soda is expected to be weak in the single - side trading; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. Supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall it was still sufficient. Demand was differentiated, with alumina demand weakening and viscose staple fiber demand tapering off. Inventory decreased, and losses widened. It is expected that prices will remain stable next week [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: Caustic soda is weak; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5] Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina in Shandong**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong was at a high level, and the price continued to decline. From January 4th to January 24th, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong was successively reduced by 15 yuan/ton each time, and the current delivery volume is 13,812 tons [7][10]. - **Alumina Operation**: This week, domestic overhauls and production cuts were frequent, and the operating capacity fluctuated. As of Friday, the national alumina built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week. Next week, two alumina enterprises in Guangxi will resume production, and two in Shanxi will enter the overhaul state. It is expected that the national operating level will fluctuate around 94 million tons. The spot trading atmosphere is expected to be lighter, and the spot price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [17]. - **Caustic Soda Operation**: This week, the average utilization rate of the production capacity of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 87.8%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China slightly decreased, and those in Northwest and Northeast China were basically stable. The weekly production capacity utilization rate in Shandong was 90.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous week [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.41% decrease from the previous week and a 2.97% increase from the same period last year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.47%, a 2.56% decrease from the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in North, East, and South China decreased, while those in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased [11]. - **Price**: The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and their regional and variety spreads are presented in the form of charts, reflecting the price trends from 2020 - 2026 [30][33][35]. - **Profit**: The profit charts of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu from 2022 - 2026 are provided, showing the profit trends and the prices of liquid chlorine [43]. - **Production**: The production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and provincial - level production volume of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [52][55]. - **Consumption**: The demand, weekly consumption (including exports) of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [57][58]. - **Alumina**: The production, operating capacity, operating rate, and planned new production capacity of alumina from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts and tables. In the first quarter of 2026, there will be more new alumina production capacity, especially in Guangxi, which will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [61][66]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: The factory - level inventory and weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber from 2019 - 2026, and the operating rates of printing and dyeing in East China, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [69][70][72]. - **Export**: The export volume, FOB price in North China, and export profit of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [74][75].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Urea: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand patterns of various chemical products are affected by factors such as approaching the Spring Festival, production capacity changes, and downstream demand. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, and the market trends vary, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term pressure or improvement expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of acrylonitrile futures declined during the day. Although there is an expected increase in supply, the pre - holiday supply shortage is difficult to reverse. Demand is mainly rational buying. The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures also declined, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand support for the market weakens [2] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices fluctuated during the day. PX is recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year, but currently, the demand is declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. PTA load increased slightly, and the processing margin declined. Ethylene glycol inventory increased, but the rate of accumulation slowed down. In the second quarter, there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand. Short fiber has a good supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot market trading slowed down. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is expected to improve around the Spring Festival. The main contract of styrene futures declined, and the supply - demand structure will weaken until the Spring Festival, with seasonal inventory accumulation after the festival [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operation rate declined. Coastal demand is weak, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the short term. Domestic production increased, and the main production areas have smooth inventory clearance. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market may slowly reduce inventory. Urea daily production is high, and the market is supported by agricultural and reserve demand. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to increase significantly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated slightly. The industry will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthening, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. Caustic soda is running strongly, but the profit is compressed, and there may be supply reduction due to potential maintenance. It is expected to run around the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly, with increasing inventory and high supply. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Glass futures prices fluctuated upward, with inventory increasing and production capacity compressing. It is recommended to look for low - value buying opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - PVC-related stocks have shown significant increases since the end of 2025, driven by a preemptive export surge in response to the non-refund policy for export value-added tax effective from April 2026 [1] Group 1: Demand Structure as a Revaluation Driver - PVC and electrolytic aluminum are both high-energy-consuming products, with electricity being the most critical production factor [1] - Since 2022, there has been a significant divergence in the value generated per kilowatt-hour between PVC and electrolytic aluminum, with the latter achieving over double the value of PVC by 2026 [1] - The demand structure for PVC has undergone substantial adjustments, and if emerging developing countries maintain growth, China's PVC demand may mirror the structural transformation seen in electrolytic aluminum post-2022 [1] Group 2: Energy Attributes as a Revaluation Anchor - The market attributes the prosperity of domestic electrolytic aluminum to the "45 million tons capacity red line" policy, while PVC lacks a similar explicit regulation [2] - The carbon emission intensity of the calcium carbide method for PVC is low, and its future potential for green improvement is limited, making it less attractive under carbon neutrality goals [2] - The profitability per kilowatt-hour for typical electrolytic aluminum companies is projected to reach 0.21 yuan in 2024, suggesting that if PVC recovers to a comparable level, its profitability could exceed 1,500 yuan per ton [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Key PVC industry stocks identified include Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Beiyuan Group, Ordos, Tianyuan Co., Jiahua Energy, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical, all of which are competitive players in the PVC sector [3] - Despite their competitive positioning, these companies currently face poor profitability in their PVC operations, with Xinjiang Tianye forecasting a slight loss for the entire year of 2025 [3] - If PVC profitability reaches the anticipated levels, significant improvements in earnings for these companies are expected [3]