数据宝统计，截至14:04，氯碱化工成交额10.01亿元，创2022年4月18日以来新高。最新股价上涨 4.48%，换手率10.05%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为1.90亿元。 据天眼查APP显示，上海氯碱化工股份有限公司成立于1992年07月04日，注册资本115639.9976万人民 币。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. With fewer maintenance enterprises, the total supply shows an increasing trend. The price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to weaken, and the industry's profit keeps shrinking with increasing losses. Thus, the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, suppressing the price. In the short term, the caustic soda price lacks support. Although the middle and lower reaches may have phased replenishment needs after consuming their own inventories, the price is still under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The non - aluminum market remains sluggish. It is expected that the caustic soda price will run weakly in the short term, and a bearish trend is advised, while tracking the downstream replenishment rhythm [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved. The pressure on the supply side continues to rise, the demand expectation weakens, and the cost - side support is insufficient. There is no positive macro - level expectation for the time being. Therefore, the price is expected to continue to decline. The main downstream fields such as real estate are still weak. The new orders of profile and pipe product enterprises are limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, which is difficult to provide continuous support to the market. There will still be an impact from new production capacity on the supply side from November to December. The demand from November to January of the next year is in the traditional off - season, and the overall real - estate demand will decrease, forming a negative impact. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax in India is unclear, and exports are mainly on hold. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the price. Although the absolute price is low, it is difficult to form an upward driving force, and it is expected to continue the downward trend at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda price is affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, alumina demand, and cost. The price has shown fluctuations, with periods of decline due to factors like increased supply and weak downstream demand, and short - term rebounds due to factors such as policy expectations and increased demand from alumina [6]. - **Supply**: The national average weekly weighted operating load rate of sample enterprises is 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from last week. The caustic soda output in terms of 100% strength this week is 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from last week. There are many ongoing maintenance of chlor - alkali plants this week, but some enterprises with under - capacity operation have increased their loads, resulting in a slight increase in output [25]. - **Alumina Demand**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [30]. - **Alumina Market**: Although the operating rate of some alumina enterprises in the north has decreased recently, the domestic supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved, and the social inventory of alumina continues to increase. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to run weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [34]. - **Bauxite**: The bauxite price is stable, the port inventory fluctuates, and the enterprise raw - material inventory has increased significantly [38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the electrolytic aluminum production remained at a high level, and the in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased [44]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The operating rate of the printing and dyeing and textile industries has increased seasonally, and it is in the peak season. However, the overall non - aluminum downstream has not shown strong driving forces [49]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. It is estimated that the export profit will decline in October [54]. PVC - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC price has been on a downward trend due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere. The price has been affected by factors such as macro - sentiment, supply - demand changes, and export conditions, with periods of sharp declines and short - term rebounds [61]. - **Profit**: The PVC industry has been in a state of continuous losses, with losses in both the calcium - carbide and ethylene - based production methods [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The calcium carbide production has increased month - on - month, but the profit has weakened [72]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry has increased this week. Although there are 4 new enterprises for maintenance or shutdown, the overall maintenance loss has decreased, and the industry operating rate has increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week is 79.28%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase from last week [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector, with the goal of "de - inventorying and stabilizing prices", will continue to have a negative impact on demand. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and it is expected that the PVC downstream will not have positive drivers [93]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new - construction area showing weak performance [94]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has remained flat recently, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [101]. - **External Market**: The external market price of PVC has weakened, and the export situation is affected by factors such as anti - dumping taxes in India [108]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, and the export volume was 346,400 tons. The export volume has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [119].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Hangjin Technology has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 13.77% and a recent decline over the past 20 days, indicating mixed market sentiment towards the company [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hangjin Technology reported a revenue of 3.287 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.38%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 62.72% to 15.1891 million yuan [3]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 641 million yuan, with 7.44781 million yuan distributed over the past three years [4]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 5.16% to 124,100, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 4.91% to 5,302 shares [3]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include various ETFs, with notable changes in holdings among them, such as a new entry by Penghua Zhongzheng Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF [4]. Market Activity - The stock experienced a trading volume of 112 million yuan with a turnover rate of 0.79% on November 10, 2025, indicating active trading [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" 12 times this year, with the most recent instance showing a net buy of -54.0628 million yuan on February 25 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The market for caustic soda is expected to be mainly volatile. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit. The alumina industry's future production reduction and new production expectations for caustic soda may offset each other. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the expectation of alumina production reduction [5]. 2.2 PVC - The trend of PVC is expected to be weak. The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the demand from the real - estate - related downstream is still weak. Exports are affected by policies such as anti - dumping duties in India and BIS certification. Although there may be supply - side production cuts during the peak maintenance season next year, the current high - production and high - inventory structure remains unchanged [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,438 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is strong, and the 1 - 5 month spread is weakening. The export market still has support but faces structural adjustment. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is rising, and the flake - liquid caustic soda spread is declining. The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, suppressing the spot market [12][15][26]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 414,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.29% and a year - on - year increase of 57.84%. In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. The electricity price in Shandong Province has increased in November, providing cost support for caustic soda. The rebound of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in caustic soda costs [38][39][44]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - The alumina industry has a situation of declining capacity utilization, rising inventory, and shrinking profits. There is an expectation of production reduction in the future, but the new production capacity at the end of the year to early next year will drive up the rigid demand and stockpiling demand, especially the trough - filling demand before production. The pulp industry has continuous capacity expansion and is in the peak demand season, but the terminal profit is continuously compressed. The finished paper industry has stable production. The viscose staple fiber industry has stable production, and the printing and dyeing industry has rising production. The water treatment industry has stable production, and the ternary precursor industry has rising production [69][77][83]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating strongly, and the 1 - 5 month spread is oscillating weakly [98]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week is 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49% and a year - on - year increase of 2.67%. In 2025, there will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production, and there will be no new capacity in 2026. The profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integrated device is at a low level, and winter is the traditional off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, while social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall downstream PVC production has decreased month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative PVC export was 2.9216 million tons. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports, but anti - dumping duties and BIS certification are putting pressure on exports. PVC warehouse receipts are continuously rising [103][108][114].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol Market - The current methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until Iranian gas restrictions are implemented. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, so attention can be focused on the MTO profit shrinkage opportunity of the 05 contract [1][3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is generally stable with some plant overhauls offset by xylene supplements. Demand has some support in the short - term, but the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are limited. PTA may have a slight inventory build - up, and its price rebound space is restricted. Ethylene glycol is expected to have a high inventory build - up in November - December, facing upward pressure. Short - fiber supply remains high in the short - term, but demand may weaken seasonally, and its price rebound space is limited. Bottle - chip supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and it follows cost fluctuations [6]. Polyolefin Market - PP supply increase is slowing due to more unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase as overhauls peak. Demand has improved, but overall, there is pressure from increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support, and its price is expected to be weakly stable. PVC supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Market - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. Its price driver is weak. Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, demand is expected to change little, and its price driver is also limited [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The太仓 basis was - 30, up 25%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang all had different changes [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641% (a 2.75% increase), port inventory was 151.7 million tons (a 0.71% increase), and social inventory was 190.4% (a 1.11% increase) [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas was 70.7%, down 2.68%. The downstream MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; WTI crude oil (December) was $59.43 per barrel, down 0.3%. CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3% [6]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6515 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow of 94 yuan/ton, down 31.2%. The bottle - chip futures PR2601 price was 5736 yuan/ton, up 1.3% [6]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 78.1%, down 0.5%; PTA operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.0%; MEG comprehensive operating rate was 76.2%, up 4.0% [6]. Polyolefin Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805, down 0.13%; PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81% [8]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 closed at 4630, down 0.2%; the V basis was - 110, down 12.2% [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The demand of caustic soda's main downstream, alumina, was weak, and PVC demand was in the off - season [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China plants increased by 18.9%, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3%. Pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - Pure benzene East China spot was 5389 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; styrene East China spot was 6310 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. EB cash - flow (non - integrated) was - 213 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [12]. Operating Rates and Inventories - Domestic pure benzene operating rate was 74.1%, up 1.9%; styrene operating rate was 66.7%, down 3.7%. Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4% [12].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Yinglite has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 17.10%, reflecting strong market interest and performance in the chemical industry [2]. Company Overview - Yinglite Chemical Co., Ltd. is located in Shizuishan, Ningxia, and was established on November 12, 1996, with its listing date on November 20, 1996. The company specializes in various chemical products including calcium carbide, calcium nitride, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, and hydrochloric acid, as well as the production and sale of electricity and heat [2]. - The main revenue composition of Yinglite includes PVC (52.21%), caustic soda (28.20%), E-PVC (12.83%), and other chemical products (2.35%), with electricity contributing 0.67% [2]. Stock Performance - As of November 7, Yinglite's stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 9.11 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.591 billion CNY. The trading volume was 29.53 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.08% [1]. - The stock has seen a net inflow of 125,500 CNY from main funds, with large orders accounting for 11.51% of purchases and 11.09% of sales [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yinglite reported a revenue of 1.28 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.97%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -247 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.07% [2]. - Yinglite has distributed a total of 608 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, Yinglite had 22,400 shareholders, a decrease of 1.43% from the previous period, with an average of 13,507 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.45% [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to experience range - bound and weak oscillations. Supply is abundant due to the resumption of maintenance and new production capacity, while demand shows only a slight improvement in downstream开工率 with average purchasing sentiment. Exports are facing challenges such as the expected anti - dumping tax in India and weakening order volume. Inventory levels are high, and futures prices are under pressure [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda remains stable with a slight increase in the price of 50% caustic soda. Supply is increasing with the resumption of production in some plants, and demand from the alumina industry is affected by environmental control, while non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price in the next two months [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,630 yuan/ton (- 8), the East China basis is - 60 yuan/ton (- 2), and the South China basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 2) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,570 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,620 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+ 60), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 100 yuan/ton (- 48), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 763 yuan/ton (- 40), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 545 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the PVC export profit is 4.0 dollars/ton (+ 2.4) [1]. - Inventory and operating rate: The PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+ 0.4), the PVC social inventory is 54.5 tons (- 1.0), the PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate is 80.17% (+ 3.70%), the PVC ethylene - based operating rate is 77.23% (- 1.27%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.28% (+ 2.19%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+ 13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,343 yuan/ton (+ 40), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 157 yuan/ton (- 40) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 845.8 yuan/ton (+ 39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 73.78 yuan/ton (- 30.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 862.03 yuan/ton (- 117.20) [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (- 2.78), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+ 0.17), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.80% (+ 0.50%) [2]. - Downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 85.86% (- 0.41%), the dyeing and printing operating rate in East China is 68.06% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.60% (- 0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance has resumed this week, and new production capacity is gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but purchasing sentiment is average [3]. - Export: Exports are trading volume for price, and export orders are weakening. India is expected to impose anti - dumping taxes in November, and an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers has been launched [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is high. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, putting pressure on the futures price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: There are both new maintenance enterprises and production resumptions, and the operating rate is increasing. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity launch of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from Shandong alumina are stable, but the operating rate of some alumina enterprises in Hebei has decreased due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken, but the potential commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has slightly decreased, and the national liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased this week [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side: Range - bound oscillations [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side: Range - bound oscillations [5]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].

Core Insights - The company achieved a record production of 234,000 tons of caustic soda in the first three quarters of the year, with a profit increase of 38.55 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on digitalization and intelligent management to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, moving from monthly to daily profit calculations [1][3] Production and Sales Coordination - The company developed an automatic profit calculation system to optimize product structure and sales strategies based on real-time data analysis [2] - The marketing department emphasizes efficiency and responsiveness to market fluctuations, particularly in the volatile pricing of caustic soda and liquid chlorine [2] Safety and Risk Management - The company invested 19.79 million yuan in transforming its caustic soda and hydrogen peroxide systems to achieve "zero manual" operations, enhancing safety through real-time monitoring [3][4] - A comprehensive safety information system has been established, integrating risk monitoring and management mechanisms to improve overall safety performance [3][4] Lean Management and Operational Excellence - Lean management is viewed as a cultural approach to continuous improvement and waste elimination, with a focus on optimizing processes [4] - The company has achieved significant energy savings and operational efficiency, with a reported annual reduction of 4.5 million kilowatt-hours and a total benefit of nearly 10 million yuan [4] Integration of Party Building and Production - The company has integrated fine management as a core production strategy, achieving significant operational improvements [5] - Initiatives such as the "Risk Prevention Party Member Post" have been implemented to enhance safety and risk management through active participation of party members [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2601 rose 2.18% to close at 2343 yuan/ton. This week, the operating loads in Northeast and South China increased, while some plants in Central and North China had maintenance and production cuts. The national average capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream alumina maintained a high operating state, while the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing decreased slightly this week. With the signing of orders from major downstream and restocking by non-aluminum enterprises, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants decreased this week, but the inventory pressure remained high. The strong thermal coal price drove up the cost, and due to the weak caustic soda price, the profit of chlor-alkali declined this week. Chlor-alkali enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating state in November. The restocking of downstream alumina is restricted by low profits, and some non-aluminum demands weaken seasonally, putting pressure on the caustic soda price. Affected by the market's pessimistic expectations, the current market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has a large premium over the 01 contract. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely. Technically, pay attention to the support around 2250 and the resistance around 2400 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2343 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main contract position was 134,599 lots, down 3,793 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -397 lots, up 13,942 lots; the main contract trading volume was 409,974 lots, down 41,379 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2343 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2512 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 157 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -49.5 yuan/ton, up 100.5 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased 0.5% to 84.8%. From October 25 to 31, the national alumina operating rate decreased 0.41% to 85.86%. From October 31 to November 6, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased 0.04% to 89.60%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased 0.26% to 68.06% [2]. 3.7 Other Information - As of November 6, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants decreased 6.29% to 414,800 tons. From October 31 to November 6, the chlor-alkali profit decreased to 464 yuan/ton [2].

注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 期货研究 烧碱：成本支撑，但趋势压力仍在 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2303 780 2438 135 2025 年 11 月 6 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，11 月 5 日山东液碱市场局部稳定，低度碱供应有所增加，涨跌均显乏力，高度碱 在订单及库存支撑下，不排除有涨价可能。 【市场状况分析】 从基本面看，烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润。从需求端看，考虑到氧化铝行业 未来可能减产装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而 冬季本身是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，囤货带来的供需缺口或有限。此外，非铝下游支撑有限，同 时出口承压，导致国内供应压力进一步增大。长期而言，氧化铝减产问题终究会导致产业链负反馈，要改变 这种格 ...