2025 年 12 月 24 日 PVC：短期反弹空间或有限 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4450 | 4420 | -30 | -288 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货一口价成交为主，盘中价格受政策性气氛推动明显上涨，然市场刚需表现谨慎，采购积 极性欠佳，短期供需基本面双弱，成交信心不足，华东地区电石法五型现汇库提报价在 4400-4550 元/吨， 乙烯法僵持在 4450-4600 元/吨。 商 品 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【市场状况分析】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至发稿，英力特收盘价为9.37元，下跌1.16%，本期筹码集中以来股价累计下 跌1.58%。具体到各交易日，4次上涨，5次下跌。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季公司共实现营业收入12.80亿元，同比下降6.97%，实现净利润-2.47 亿元，同比增长4.07%，基本每股收益为-0.7850元。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 英力特12月23日披露，截至12月20日公司股东户数为21433户，较上期（12月10日）减少1473户，环比 降幅为6.43%。这已是该公司股东户数连续第3期下降。 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-23 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4591元/吨（-61）；华东基差-231元/吨（+21）;华南基差-191元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4360元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4400元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格780元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-84元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-986元/吨（+116）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-469元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-5.6美元/吨（+3.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.9万吨（-1.6）；PVC社会库存51.1万吨（-0.7）；PVC电石法开工率77.01%（-2.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率74.06%（-2.61%）；PVC开工率76.12%（-2.27%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量76.2万吨（+11.4）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2181元/吨（+17）；山东32%液碱基差69元/吨（-17）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价720元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1140元/吨（+ ...

12月23日，英力特盘中下跌2.00%，截至09:52，报9.29元/股，成交1294.69万元，换手率0.46%，总市值 36.62亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入2.83万元，大单买入34.52万元，占比2.67%，卖出31.69万元，占比 2.45%。 英力特今年以来股价涨19.41%，近5个交易日跌1.48%，近20日涨5.21%，近60日涨12.61%。 分红方面，英力特A股上市后累计派现6.08亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，宁夏英力特化工股份有限公司位于宁夏石嘴山市惠农区钢电路，成立日期1996年11月12日， 上市日期1996年11月20日，公司主营业务涉及电石、石灰氮、双氰胺、烧碱、聚氯乙烯树脂、液氯、盐 酸等相关产品;电力、热力的生产及销售。主营业务收入构成为：PVC52.21%，烧碱28.20%，E- PVC12.83%，其他化工产品2.35%，电石2.24%，其他(补充)1.50%，电力0.67%。 英力特所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学原料-氯碱。所属概念板块包括：氢能源、光伏玻璃、太阳能、 央企改革、小盘等。 截至12月10日，英力特股东户数2. ...

氯碱周报 S H ：需求端支撑乏力 ， 预计价格反弹后重回弱势 V ：供需仍存压力 ， 价格延续底部震荡 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：烧碱行业供需仍存一定压力，虽然部分区域企业库存去库，部分区域下游采买存积极性，但库存水平依然偏高，短期暂无明显利好显现，下周价格仍偏看空。 华东地区下周供应存恢复预期，供量增加下且需求未有实质性改善，预估下周华东区域液碱价格延续弱行。山东地区需求端利好尚未显现，企业开工高位维持，出货情况一般，预 计整体山东市场弱势维持。整体看需求端支撑较弱，长期看供需仍有压力。预计烧碱价格偏弱运行。 ◼ 期货策略建议：偏空思路 ◼ 期权策略建议：暂观望 ◼ PVC主要观点：供应端本周压力不减，但受到海外装置停产提振盘面大幅反弹。下周开工率预计小幅下降，需求端内外存压，持续低迷，淡季下硬制品开工低位，软制品相对稳 定。成本端支撑预期松动，预期PVC市场继续维持区间整理运行。当前处于传统需求淡季，北方进入冬季室外施工逐渐减少，整体地产需求减量仍形成利空影响。出口方面 ...

烧碱：后期仍有压力 PVC：趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：后期仍有压力 供应 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.7%，较上周环比-1.5%。分区域来看，华北有前期负荷不满装置提负，负荷小幅上 升，华北+0.3%至82.4%，其中山东-0.1%至92.9%。华东、西南、华中、华南负荷下滑，华东、华南地区存在企业检修，负荷下滑明显 ， 华东-6.0%至71.9%，西南-5.3%至79.0%，华南-4.6%至84.5%，华中-0.8%至81.9%。其它大区基本稳定。 需求 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽然年底到明年年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing downward pressure and some having potential for short - term strength or long - term improvement [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary of Each Section Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures dropped significantly. Production enterprises faced inventory pressure and increased the incentive to sell at a discount. The demand was negatively affected by the increase in the number of shutdown or planned shutdown of polypropylene plants [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures may enter an accelerated downward phase. The supply pressure of polyethylene increased due to high - load operation and slow inventory digestion, and the demand was weak. The cost support of polypropylene weakened, and the demand was relatively weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded slightly from a low level. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the supply - demand pressure may ease. It is recommended to consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures showed a weak consolidation. The cost support was insufficient, the de - stocking slowed down, and the market was in a weak downward trend [3] Polyester - PX and PTA increased in positions and prices, and the basis weakened. PX is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded and then weakened. Although the supply may shrink, the long - term pressure remains due to expected new production capacity [5] - Short - fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakened, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand faded, and the long - term pressure comes from over - capacity [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures prices fell. The port continued to de - stock, and the short - term port market is expected to be strong [6] - Urea prices corrected slightly. The daily production decreased, and the demand was strong. The short - term price may fluctuate strongly within a range [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices dropped. The supply pressure eased, but the demand was low. It is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short - term [7] - Caustic soda prices declined. The supply pressure was high, and the profit is expected to be compressed in the long - term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell again. The supply pressure was high, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term [8] - Glass prices also declined again. The inventory pressure was large, and the demand was insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Chlor-Alkali Chemical announced a steam supply contract with Guotou Qinzhou Second Power Co., Ltd., involving a total steam procurement of approximately 1.44 million tons per year for a duration of 20 years [1] - The contract will be executed in two phases, with the first phase involving a procurement of 180 tons per hour and the second phase 240 tons per hour, ensuring a supply duration of no less than 8,000 hours per year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Chlor-Alkali Chemical is reported as follows: industrial segment accounts for 91.21%, trading segment for 8.18%, and other businesses for 0.61% [1] Group 2 - As of the latest report, the market capitalization of Chlor-Alkali Chemical is 13.6 billion yuan [2]

格隆汇12月19日丨氯碱化工(600618.SH)公布,广西氯碱公司拟在广西钦州港经济技术开发区石化产业园 投资建设"先进材料配套废盐综合利用项目"，投资建设30万吨/年烧碱、25万吨/年氯乙烯和30万吨/年聚 氯乙烯生产装置，项目总投资29.75亿元。项目符合华谊钦州化工新材料一体化基地产业发展规划，以 废盐为原料生产烧碱，实现废物的资源化利用，为下游环氧树脂、环氧氯丙烷等装置提供关键原料，实 现氯资源循环经济产业链，促进区域产业协同与资源优化，提升基地整体竞争力与绿色发展能力。因项 目投资建设需要较大金额的建设资金投入，公司拟以现金出资方式对广西氯碱公司进行增资，增资总额 为8.93亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Chlor-Alkali Chemical (SH 600618) held its 11th Board Meeting on December 19, 2025, to review proposals including amendments to company regulations [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Chlor-Alkali Chemical was as follows: Industrial accounted for 91.21%, Trade for 8.18%, and Other businesses for 0.61% [1] - As of the time of reporting, Chlor-Alkali Chemical had a market capitalization of 13.6 billion yuan [1]