Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently in a pattern of high inventory and high supply. In the short - term, due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure, the price is weak, but there may be a rebound from over - selling, especially after April next year. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production reduction situation of caustic soda production enterprises [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Over the weekend, the price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continued to decline, with some orders negotiated on a one - by - one basis and actual orders down by 10 - 20. The procurement volume and price of downstream customers outside the province were low, providing little support to Shandong. The procurement price of alumina in the province dropped by 15 to 600 over the weekend [1] - The caustic soda operating rate was 87.70% (+1.00%), and the weekly output was 86.30 tons (+1.00%). For demand, the operating rate of main downstream alumina was 85.18% (-0.65%), the weekly output was 183.90 tons (-1.40), and the port inventory was 16.80 (+3.20). The operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 56.54% (-2.22%); that of viscose staple fiber was 88.43% (+0.00%); that of white cardboard was 74.37% (-6.30%); that of broad - leaf pulp was 89.70% (-1.30%) [1] - According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 22, China's caustic soda (converted to 100%) output in December was 4.217 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The cumulative output from January to December was 46.535 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the domestic demand expansion strategy from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the individual consumer loan fiscal interest - subsidy policy to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short - term price decline is due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons. The futures price has continuously hit new lows. In the short - term weak supply - demand situation, the price is weak, but beware of over - selling rebounds, especially after April next year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to maintain a situation of high production and high inventory in the short - term. The SH2603 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the range around 1900 - 2000. The 03 contract has limited room for rebound, while the 05 contract is stronger due to the trading of maintenance expectations. The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain loose, and the low profit of the alumina industry restricts procurement demand and increases the expectation of production cuts in the future. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 1951 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The main contract position is 263,142 lots, an increase of 328 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 29,970 lots, a decrease of 457 lots. The main contract trading volume is 621,860 lots, a decrease of 268,681 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan, and the May contract is 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1884 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The basis is - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 242.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.7%, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. From January 17th to 23rd, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.65% to 85.18%. From January 16th to 22nd, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 56.54%. As of January 22nd, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 509,600 tons (wet tons), a 0.49% decrease from the previous period and a 105.77% increase year - on - year. From January 16th to 22nd, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xinjiang Tianye's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.16% and a year-to-date increase of 18.79% [1] - As of January 27, the stock price is reported at 5.88 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 10.039 billion yuan [1] - The company has seen a net inflow of main funds amounting to 13.1247 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activities recorded [1] Group 2 - Xinjiang Tianye's main business involves chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic water-saving devices, with chemical products accounting for 89.72% of revenue [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 7.970 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.20%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.79% to 7.1847 million yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 8.65 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 205 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4959元/吨（+38）；华东基差-259元/吨（+22）;华南基差-209元/吨（+52）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+60）；华南电石法报价4750元/吨（+90）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（-15）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-23元/吨（+12）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-800元/吨（-137）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-49元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-16.5美元/吨（-8.1）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-01-27 氯碱现货成交偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.8万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存57.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率80.14%（-0.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.04%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率77.98%（-1.10%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量88.4万吨（-4.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1973元/吨（+28）；山东32%液碱基差-82元/吨（-81）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价605元/吨（-17）；山东50%液 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a pattern of high inventory and high supply, with short - term prices remaining weak due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday destocking pressure. However, beware of oversold rebounds, especially after April next year, and avoid excessive bearishness. Track the start - up of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production cuts of caustic soda producers [3][4]. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - Over the weekend, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to decline, with some orders negotiated on a case - by - case basis and actual orders down 10 - 20. The procurement volume and price from outside the province are low, providing little support to Shandong. The procurement price of alumina in the province dropped by 15 to 600 over the weekend [1]. - The caustic soda operating rate is 87.70% (+1.00%), and the weekly output is 86.30 tons (+1.00). The operating rate of the main downstream alumina is 85.18% (-0.65%), with a weekly output of 183.90 tons (-1.40) and port inventory of 16.80 (+3.20). The operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 56.54% (-2.22%), viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%), white cardboard is 74.37% (-6.30%), and broad - leaf pulp is 89.70% (-1.30) [1]. - China's caustic soda (converted to 100%) output in December 2025 was 4.217 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The cumulative output from January to December was 46.535 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will research, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. - Multiple departments including the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium and micro - enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the financial department will strongly support employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short - term decline is due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday destocking pressure. The traditional maintenance seasons for chlor - alkali enterprises are from March to May in spring and from September to October in autumn [3].

| | | -2000附近。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 1973 | 28 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 262814 | -19659 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -29513 | 8167 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 890541 | 206588 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2441 | 30 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2236 | 52 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -29513 | 8167 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 605 | -17 烧 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 需求不及预期，期现双双走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :需求不及预期，期现双双走弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.3万吨至85万吨;（2）烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.7%，较上周环比+1.0%。 分区域来看，周内华东、华南、华中前期部分检修设备恢复之后负荷逐步提升；西南及华北牵扯部分设备轻微调整，本地负荷略有下滑，其中山东周度产 | | | | 能利用率91.5%，环比-0.9%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2）粘胶短纤行业产能利用率88.43%，较上周+3.01% ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The mainstream regional liquid caustic soda market prices continued to decline this week. High开工 and poor sales led to inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - term prices are under pressure, and the short - term driving force remains weak [3]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. Although the market sentiment is good and the trend is relatively strong, with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream production demand is weakening, and inventory is rapidly accumulating. Also, the support from raw material calcium carbide is weak. It is expected that the upward space of PVC prices is limited, and it may fluctuate between 4700 - 5000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market**: The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. There were frequent low - price situations in the week, impacting the market. The main downstream unloading was still difficult, and order transactions were light [3]. - **Supply**: As of Thursday, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of major sample enterprises nationwide was 90.87%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week. There were sporadic short - stops of chlor - alkali plants, but some previously reduced - load plants resumed production [28]. - **Inventory**: On January 21, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China increased by 5.52% compared with January 14. In Shandong, the inventory decreased by 0.44% [28]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were some ongoing and planned maintenance situations of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined. Chongqing Tianyuan in the Southwest plans to have maintenance in March, but the specific time is undetermined [30]. - **Downstream Industry - Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new - to - be - put - into - production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production of alumina in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increment for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons. Recently, alumina futures prices have risen and then fallen, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the price will continue to operate weakly in the range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Export**: In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. Exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [59]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. As of now, the spot ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type five - grade in East China is 4520 - 4620 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - type is 4700 - 4800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased, with some enterprises having unplanned production cuts, but overall supply remained at a high level [4]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were no new maintenance enterprises this week, and the maintenance loss this week was 44,280 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5700 tons. It is expected that the maintenance loss will slightly decrease next week [74]. - **Downstream Industry - Real Estate**: The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and commercial housing sales area showing weak performance [75]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [82]. - **External Market**: Some external PVC prices have weakened [89].

专题报告 2026-01-26 烧碱：液氯强势打开烧碱下方空间 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 核心观点：液氯价格支撑氯碱企业高开工，烧碱价格承压下行 2026 年初以来，国内烧碱市场持续走弱，期现价格均出现显著下跌。下跌驱动在于：1、 液氯价格大涨：受 PVC 出口退税取消政策刺激，PVC 企业"抢出口"带动液氯需求激增，价 格从 150 元/吨涨至 350 元/吨。氯碱企业因此维持高负荷生产，烧碱供应压力持续。2、库存居 高不下：全国液碱库存处于近五年高位，供需持续错配。3、需求疲软：主要下游氧化铝行业利 润承压，且非铝需求处于淡季。 尽管烧碱价格下跌，但因液氯利润丰厚，氯碱企业整体毛利仍保持正值（约 154 元/吨）， 主动减产意愿不足。当前高产量、高库存的局面若无大规模减产推动，价格预计将继续承压。 复盘去年 3-5 月的行情，预计在盘面利润触及 0 之前，期货价格仍难以止跌， ...

Core Viewpoint - The chlor-alkali industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with multiple companies, including Xinjiang Tianye and Huashu Co., forecasting substantial losses due to declining PVC prices and oversupply in the market [1][2][3]. Company Summaries - Xinjiang Tianye (600075.SH) expects a net loss of approximately 50 million yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to a profit of 68.435 million yuan in the same period last year [1][3]. - Huashu Co. (600935.SH) anticipates a net loss between 145 million yuan and 180 million yuan, attributing the losses to weak demand and excess capacity in the PVC sector [3]. - Yinglite (000635.SZ) projects a net loss of 550 million yuan for 2025, marking a 9.44% year-on-year decline, and has recorded losses for four consecutive years [3]. Industry Analysis - The PVC market is characterized by "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand," leading to a cumulative price drop of approximately 11% for SG-5 type PVC in 2025 [2][4]. - The domestic PVC production capacity increased by 220,000 tons in 2025, reaching a total capacity of 29.93 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 7.35% [4]. - The average operating rate in the PVC industry is expected to remain around 77%-78% in 2025, with some high-cost small enterprises potentially exiting the market due to ongoing losses [4]. Demand Factors - The demand for PVC products is under pressure, particularly in the real estate sector, which accounts for about 60% of PVC downstream products [4]. - The area of completed housing in China decreased by 18% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, further impacting PVC demand [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PVC industry may see a structural adjustment in 2026, with potential for supply-demand imbalances to gradually ease, although the oversupply situation is unlikely to be fundamentally resolved [4][5]. - The competitive landscape in the PVC market is expected to intensify, necessitating companies to enhance their competitiveness to survive future market changes [5].