证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025 年 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数 涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块 表现相对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分 歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息 25bp 靴 子落地后选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看， 我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市 场强势的科技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行 之中。 热点一：美联储 9 月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入 9 月以来，在美联储公布 9 月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期， 以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9 月 17 日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储 2025 年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市 涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息 25bp 利好的兑现而选择了 ...

Group 1: Policy Background and Market Dynamics - The central government emphasizes the importance of anti-involution policies to eliminate low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises, aiming to enhance the international influence of high-end manufacturing [1] - The shift from a liquidity-driven bull market to a physical re-inflation and anti-involution bull market indicates a change in market dynamics, with future PPI potentially rising, suggesting a focus on corporate profits and inflation recovery [1] Group 2: Market Stability and Investment Trends - Stabilizing the stock and real estate markets is crucial for improving residents' asset-liability balance, with a noticeable trend of residents converting savings into financial and physical investments as the stock market stabilizes [2] - Improved corporate cash flow and the activation of M1 provide liquidity support, laying the foundation for price recovery [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - In an environment of rising inflation expectations, the anti-leverage allocation strategy becomes increasingly important, favoring large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks and growth stocks over value stocks [3] - Cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and consumer goods are benefiting significantly from the implementation of anti-involution policies, with notable increases in ETF holdings in these areas [3] - Investors should focus on cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, steel, chemicals, and consumer goods, which are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand relationships under the anti-involution policy [4] - The technology sector, particularly in AI breakthroughs and US-China tech competition, presents significant investment opportunities, especially in consumer electronics and optical electronics with strong global competitive advantages [4]

Core Insights - In August, Shanghai's import and export value reached 387.43 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, continuing a growth streak for seven consecutive months since February [1] - Exports amounted to 183.08 billion yuan, surpassing 180 billion yuan for the first time in a single month, with a growth rate of 17.1%, while imports were 204.35 billion yuan, growing by 7.3% [1] - For the first eight months of the year, the total import and export value was 2.94 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.5%, with an acceleration of 1 percentage point compared to the previous seven months [1] Export Performance - In August, the export of mechanical and electrical products reached 125.39 billion yuan, growing by 19%, accounting for nearly 70% of the total exports [2] - Notable growth was observed in the exports of ships and high-end machine tools, which increased by 45.1% and 43.7% respectively [2] - The demand for green products surged, with exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products growing by 37.1%, 112.1%, and 39% respectively [2] Import Dynamics - The import of metal ores, unrefined copper, and copper products increased by 15% and 21% respectively, reflecting a recovery in raw material manufacturing [2] - The development of the semiconductor and artificial intelligence industries drove significant growth in imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and computer accessories, which surged by 105.5% and 55.2% respectively [2] - Consumer goods imports also saw growth, with beef, milk powder, perfume, and sports equipment increasing by 10.5%, 43.2%, 29.4%, and 35.8% respectively [2] Market Opportunities - The strong performance in August was significantly driven by private enterprises, which accounted for 166.85 billion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 31.5% and contributing 11.5 percentage points to the overall growth [1] - Emerging markets such as Africa, ASEAN, the Middle East, and India saw exports totaling 53.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, contributing 10.7 percentage points to the overall export growth [1] - The export of shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment, along with engineering machinery, showed remarkable performance, with increases of 10.6 times and 72.8% respectively, contributing 16.5 percentage points to the growth in emerging markets [1]

Core Insights - Private enterprises are increasingly becoming a key force in stabilizing foreign trade due to their flexibility and market sensitivity [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In August, Shanghai's total imports and exports grew by 11.7% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth since February [1] - Exports exceeded 180 billion yuan for the first time, with a growth rate of 17.1%, while imports reached 204.35 billion yuan, growing by 7.3% [1] - For the first eight months, Shanghai's total imports and exports increased by 4.5%, with the growth rate improving by 1 percentage point compared to the first seven months [1] Group 2: Role of Private Enterprises - In August, the import and export volume of private enterprises in Shanghai surged by 31.5%, maintaining a growth rate above 30% for three consecutive months [1] - The share of private enterprises in Shanghai's total foreign trade rose to 43.1%, surpassing 40% for the first time, contributing 11.5 percentage points to the city's overall trade growth [1] Group 3: Market Diversification - Exports to emerging markets such as Africa, ASEAN, the Middle East, and India grew by 45% in August, contributing 10.7 percentage points to the overall export growth [1] - Notable export performance was observed in shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment, which grew by 10.6 times, and engineering machinery, which increased by 72.8%, together driving a 16.5 percentage point increase in exports to these emerging markets [1] Group 4: High-End Manufacturing and Imports - In August, the export of electromechanical products grew by 19%, accounting for nearly 70% of the total export value, with significant growth in shipbuilding and high-end machine tools at 45.1% and 43.7% respectively [2] - The export of "new three samples" including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products saw growth rates of 37.1%, 112.1%, and 39% respectively [2] - Imports of raw materials such as metal ores and copper products increased by 15% and 21% respectively, driven by stable industrial and consumer demand [2] - The import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and computer accessories surged by 105.5% and 55.2% respectively, supported by the development of the integrated circuit and artificial intelligence industries [2] - Consumption-related policies have led to significant growth in imports of consumer goods, with beef, milk powder, perfume, and sports equipment increasing by 10.5%, 43.2%, 29.4%, and 35.8% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that consumer brands need to adopt ten "don'ts" to avoid internal competition and effectively market their products in a fragmented consumer landscape. Group 1: Key "Don'ts" for Consumer Brands - Don't chase after dividends anymore [2] - Don't use diligent traffic investment to cover the lack of core brand competitiveness [3] - Don't look for consumers anymore; instead, focus on penetrating consumer mindsets with concentrated efforts [6][8] - Don't add more products; focus on core products to ensure profitability [10][11] - Don't embrace change blindly; identify unchanging consumer needs and long-term sustainable practices [12][13] Group 2: Understanding Consumer Needs - Don't talk about products; instead, create scenarios that stimulate consumer purchasing desires [15][16] - Don't learn from leading brands; instead, differentiate and position against them [19][20] - Don't fantasize about winning through extraordinary means; the probability of success is low [22][23] - Don't believe in digital metrics alone; true brand value is recognized in real-world consumer perception [27][28] Group 3: Strategic Approaches - Don't follow trends blindly; consider taking the opposite approach during low peaks or off-seasons [31][32]

Group 1 - The global manufacturing investment is expected to rise, with a focus on overseas resource products, industrial goods, consumer goods in Europe and the US, and supply chain companies [1] - Resources with global pricing power include oil and gas, marine engineering, mining, and shipbuilding sectors [1] - Industrial goods with increasing overseas market share include engineering machinery, forklifts, and high-tech equipment [1] - Consumer goods, particularly hand tools in the US, showed significant performance during the last interest rate cut cycle [1] - Companies deeply involved in the global industrial supply chain are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The global PMI reached a 14-month high in August, with 18 out of 33 countries showing growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US [2] - Germany's fiscal stimulus has significantly impacted its manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI rising above the 50 mark for the first time in August [2] - The US is promoting manufacturing return through external tariffs and internal tax cuts, leading to increased construction spending, with a focus on traditional industries like metal manufacturing [2] Group 3 - US manufacturing inventory levels are at historical lows, initiating a replenishment cycle after 20 months of active destocking [3] - Retailers are leading the destocking process, which is now transitioning into a replenishment trend, positively affecting manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3] - Different sub-sectors of machinery are experiencing varying levels of expansion, with construction machinery showing the strongest recovery [3] - The recovery in industrial goods is expected to be resilient and sustainable, while consumer goods are more sensitive to interest rates and have a stronger recovery potential [3]

三、风险资本出现反弹，2024年交易额增长了7.7%，主要是受到美国巨额交易和生成式人工智能投资 激增的推动，但若排除这些投资，风险资本则呈萎缩状态； 新华财经日内瓦9月17日电（记者王露）世界知识产权组织16日发布的2025年全球创新指数（GII）报告 显示，中国在全球的创新力排名较去年上升一位至第十位，首次跻身前十。 GII采用约80项指标，包括研发支出、风险资本交易、高技术出口和知识产权申请等指标来评估全球近 140个经济体的创新表现。2025年的最新排名显示，全球最具创新力的10个经济体分别是瑞士、瑞典、 美国、韩国、新加坡、英国、芬兰、荷兰、丹麦和中国。 报告还显示，中国在全球中等收入经济体中保持创新领先地位，并在研发支出、高科技出口和创新产出 方面持续保持强劲势头。中国的全球百强科技创新集群数量连续三年位居世界第一，2025年的指数统计 显示中国拥有24个全球百强科技创新集群，"深圳-香港-广州"创新集群更是首次排名全球第一。 在2025年GII中，17个中低收入经济体的表现超出其发展水平预期，其中，印度和越南是创新超水平表 现时间最长的经济体。撒哈拉以南非洲地区创新超水平表现的经济体数量最多，其 ...

Core Insights - Sharjah attracted 74 foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in the first half of 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - The total FDI amount reached $1.5 billion, representing a staggering year-on-year growth of 361%, making it the strongest performer among all emirates in the UAE [1] Industry Performance - The consumer goods sector led the growth in foreign investment, with the number of projects increasing by 53% and capital investment rising by 188%, indicating a growing demand for new products and services [1] - The food and beverage sector saw a project number increase of 112%, reinforcing Sharjah's position as a regional hub for food safety and related industries [1] - The industrial equipment sector experienced a 100% increase in project numbers and a 45% rise in capital expenditure, highlighting advancements in Sharjah's manufacturing industry [1] Strategic Factors - The continuous growth in attracting investments is attributed to a clear strategic vision, an integrated policy framework supporting investment, economic and financial stability, advanced infrastructure, and a flexible regulatory environment [1]

Group 1: Global Innovation Index Overview - The World Intellectual Property Organization released the 2025 Global Innovation Index Report, evaluating nearly 140 economies using around 80 indicators, including R&D expenditure, venture capital transactions, high-tech exports, and intellectual property applications [1] - Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, South Korea, and Singapore ranked highest in innovation index, while China made its first appearance in the top ten, indicating a continuous enhancement of its innovation capabilities [1][2] - Global R&D growth is projected to decline to 2.3% in 2025, down from 4.4% in 2023, with actual corporate R&D spending growth slowing to 1% due to persistent inflation [1] Group 2: China's Performance in Innovation - China ranked 10th in the 2025 Global Innovation Index, marking its first entry into the top ten [2] - In 2024, China ranked first globally in knowledge and technology output, surpassing the U.S. in R&D expenditure, and maintained the highest number of patent applications [2] - China has the largest number of innovation clusters globally, with 24 out of the top 100 located in China, and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou cluster ranked first globally [2] Group 3: Emerging Economies in Innovation - Several middle-income economies have seen their rankings rise since 2013, becoming new forces in the global innovation system through investments in education, digital infrastructure, and industrial upgrades [3] - India ranked 38th, leading in the low-income group, while Turkey, Vietnam, and the Philippines also showed significant progress in high-tech manufacturing and knowledge output [3] - Countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Brazil have improved their rankings since 2019 by enhancing innovation infrastructure and fostering collaboration between government, enterprises, and academia [3]

在上市五周年的重要节点，稳健医疗（300888.SZ）宣布全面升级ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）战 略，明确以"呵护健康、关爱生命、保护环境，让世界更美好"为愿景，围绕"守护地球、产品领先、员 工成长、共促社区、稳健治理"五大支柱，系统构建起可持续发展的战略架构与管理体系。公司通过推 动绿色制造、可持续产品、人才成长、社会公益与合规治理，将ESG理念深度融入经营全流程，在价值 创造与社会责任之间探索良性循环。 其中，"守护地球"聚焦气候变化与碳目标管理，推动绿色制造、能源与水资源管理及循环经济探 索；"产品领先"强调以可持续与高质量并重的产品为核心竞争力，通过研发创新加快绿色包装与环保原 材料的应用；"员工成长"突出以人为本，完善人力资本发展和职业健康安全体系，推动多元平等与员工 福祉建设；"共促社区"秉持社会价值优先原则，持续拓展公益实践，提升医疗可及性；"稳健治理"则通 过健全治理架构，强化商业道德、合规管理与信息安全，推动责任经营常态化。五大支柱相互支撑，为 公司高质量发展注入持久动能。 稳健治理 夯实可持续发展的制度根基 治理是ESG体系的首要维度，也是资本市场评估企业稳健性的基石。稳健医疗近年来不断 ...