我国经济景气水平总体回升。 12月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此，国家 统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 （三）重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势 向好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.6个和1.0个百分点，双双升至扩张区 间。高耗能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平继续回升。 （四）预期指数升至较高景气区间。生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，制造业 企业对市场发展信心继续增强。从行业看，受节前备货等因素带动，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制 茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数均升至60.0%以上高位景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展更为乐观。 二、非制造业商务活动指数重回扩张区间 12月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气水平改善。 （一）服务业景气度小幅回升。服务业商务活动指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。从行业看，电 信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务、 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1% in December, marking the first time it has entered the expansion zone since April [4] - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported an increase in PMI compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [4] - The production index and new orders index were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases from the previous month [4] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.2% in December, reflecting an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic climate [6] - The service sector's business activity index was 49.7%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth [6] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 52.8%, indicating a notable recovery in the industry due to favorable weather and increased construction activity [7] Group 3 - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.7%, suggesting overall expansion in production and business activities across sectors [8] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively, contributing to the rise in the comprehensive PMI [8]

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite output all rose above the expansion threshold, indicating an overall improvement in the economic climate [2][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, marking the first time it has entered the expansion zone since April [3]. - Production index and new orders index were at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Sixteen out of twenty-one surveyed industries reported a rise in PMI compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [3]. - Large enterprises' PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, while medium-sized enterprises were at 49.8%, and small enterprises fell to 48.6% [3][4]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [5]. - The service sector's business activity index was 49.7%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth [5]. - The construction sector saw a significant increase in its business activity index to 52.8%, driven by favorable weather conditions and pre-holiday construction activities [5]. Group 3: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index reached 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7]. - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this composite index, standing at 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the key tasks and changes planned for 2026 in various sectors, including finance, employment, consumption, investment, urban development, and technological innovation, as part of China's strategic planning for economic growth and stability. Group 1: Fiscal Policy - In 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and improving expenditure structure [2][3] - The fiscal policy aims to promote resident employment and income growth by coordinating various funds to support job stability and entrepreneurship [3] Group 2: Consumption and Investment - The government will support consumption through initiatives like the "old for new" program, optimizing subsidy standards, and promoting service consumption [4] - Measures will be taken to stabilize investment, including increasing central budget investments and utilizing various government investment funds to enhance investment efficiency [5] Group 3: Urban Development - High-quality urban renewal will be prioritized, focusing on community improvements, public space enhancements, and safety projects [6] Group 4: Industry and Technology - There will be an emphasis on enhancing industrial technological innovation capabilities, addressing core technologies, and developing a national manufacturing trial service network [9] - The government plans to cultivate emerging and future industries, including AI, integrated circuits, and biotechnology, while supporting innovation in sectors like 6G technology [10] Group 5: Infrastructure and Energy - The construction of cross-regional and cross-basin transportation corridors will be advanced to support national strategic goals [11] - The energy sector will see an increase in renewable energy supply, with significant additions in wind and solar power capacity, and a focus on future energy industries like hydrogen and nuclear energy [12] Group 6: Social Welfare - The implementation of direct disbursement of maternity benefits to insured individuals will be pursued, along with expanding coverage for flexible employment and migrant workers [13] - The real estate market will be stabilized by utilizing existing housing stock for affordable housing and other social needs [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a plan by six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, promoting a two-way interaction between supply and demand, and facilitating economic circulation [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Interaction - The plan outlines 19 key tasks to expand new demand, tap into existing demand, segment markets, empower scenarios, and optimize the environment, emphasizing the need for a systemic reconstruction of production modes, value connotations, and market environments [1]. - The current structural contradictions on the supply side are identified as major obstacles to unleashing consumption potential, necessitating a transformation from traditional supply models to more responsive and flexible production systems [1]. Group 2: Innovation and Upgrading - The plan encourages the upgrading of existing products and precise segmentation of niche markets, focusing on green, healthy, and intelligent product iterations to align with the evolving consumer preferences from survival to development and enjoyment [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of catering to diverse age groups by enhancing the supply of products for infants, students, fashion items, and senior citizens, reflecting a comprehensive approach to consumer needs throughout the lifecycle [2]. Group 3: Consumer Experience and Environment - The article highlights the significance of innovative consumption scenarios and environments as essential for transforming demand into consumption, with examples of recent innovations that cater to diverse consumer needs and stimulate economic recovery [2]. - The plan stresses the need for financial support and improved quality assurance measures to enhance consumer confidence and safety, thereby fostering a conducive environment for consumption [2]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article concludes that aligning supply with consumer preferences and activating domestic demand will effectively stimulate the internal dynamics of China's large-scale market, transitioning consumption from quantity expansion to quality enhancement, thus contributing to high-quality economic development [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral to positive investment rating for the bond market. It suggests that investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year, and is optimistic about the bond market's performance in the medium term. [4][37] 2. Core Viewpoints - Manufacturing demand drives production recovery, with the November manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.20%, but still below the boom - bust line. The new order index and production index have both increased. The improvement in the foreign trade environment due to Sino - US economic and trade consultations has led to an overall recovery in demand, which in turn has accelerated production. [2][13] - The improvement in the international trade environment has led to a recovery in external demand, driving a phased repair of demand. The new export order index and import index have both increased in November, and the BDI index has increased by 31.28%. However, there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [2][23] - The manufacturing price end continues to show positive changes. The raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased, which may promote the repair of the manufacturing production end. [3][27] - Non - manufacturing business has slowed down. The service industry PMI has declined due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday, and the construction industry is still in the contraction range, but infrastructure - related activities continue to grow. [3][34] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Manufacturing Production Shows Slight Repair - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The new order index rose 0.40 percentage points to 49.20%, and the production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 50.00%. [13] - Among different manufacturing industries, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing remains in the expansion range, while the PMI of equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries has fallen into the contraction range, and the PMI of basic raw material industries has increased. [13] 3.2 External Environment Drives Demand Recovery - In November, the new export order index was 47.60%, up 1.70 percentage points from the previous value, and the import index was 47.00%, up 0.20 percentage points from the previous value. The BDI index increased by 31.28% in November, indicating an improvement in the external trade environment. [23] - The short - term external environment is easing, but there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [23] 3.3 Positive Changes in the Price End Continue - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index has increased. The difference between the two has widened by 0.4 percentage points to 5.40pct. [27] - The raw material purchase price index in November was 53.60%, better than the average of the past five years. The procurement volume index has increased slightly, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased. [27] - The economic kinetic energy index in November was 1.90pct, up 1.20 percentage points. The positive recovery in prices may reflect the policy effect of rectifying "involution - style" competition, and the PPI data in November may also show a reaction. [27][29] 3.4 Attention Should Be Paid to Corporate Business Vitality - In November, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.30%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value, while the PMI of medium - sized and small enterprises increased by 0.20 and 2.00 percentage points respectively. [32] - The recovery of external demand helps to improve the prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises, but the prosperity of large enterprises is the guarantee of the overall business vitality of domestic enterprises and needs continuous attention. [32] 3.5 Non - manufacturing Prosperity Declines - In November, the official non - manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value. The service industry PMI was 49.50%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous value due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday. [34] - After the concentrated release of consumer demand during the National Day Golden Week, the business activity indexes of consumer - related service industries have declined to varying degrees, but the business activity index and new order index of the financial industry have increased significantly. [34] - The construction industry is still in the contraction range, with the business activity index at 49.60%, up 0.50 percentage points from the previous value. Infrastructure - related activities continue to grow, and investment is expected to strengthen at the end of the year. [35] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - The PMI data has a neutral to positive impact on the bond market. As the market sentiment adjusts, investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year. In the short term, attention should be paid to policy expectations such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. In the medium term, the bond market is expected to perform well. [4][37]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a commentary on the November 2025 PMI data, titled "Manufacturing Sentiment Improves Slightly, Market Expectations Remain Optimistic" [1] - The analysts are Chen Xi and Wang Shuaizhong, with contact information and certificate numbers provided [2] Group 2: PMI Data Overview - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 pct month-on-month and down 1.1 pct year-on-year; the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 pct month-on-month; the composite PMI was 49.7%, down 0.3 pct month-on-month [2][3] Group 3: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing sentiment improved slightly due to export improvement, but it remained in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. New export orders rose 1.7 pct, on-hand orders rose 1.0 pct, and the production index rose 0.3 pct month-on-month [3] Group 4: Non-manufacturing PMI Analysis - The decline in the service PMI dragged the non-manufacturing PMI into the contraction range. In November, the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 pct month-on-month and 0.6 pct year-on-year, the first time in 2025 to fall into the contraction range [4] - New export orders rose, but new orders fell, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Policy measures for new consumption scenarios and promoting domestic demand and consumption may be in the works [4] Group 5: Structural Highlights - High-tech manufacturing remained in expansion, with a PMI of 50.1%. Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and basic raw materials industries also had PMIs above the overall manufacturing level, despite some declines [5] - Price indices improved. The purchase price of major raw materials and the ex-factory price of manufacturing rose 1.1 pct and 0.7 pct respectively, and the input price and sales price of non-manufacturing rose 1.0 pct and 1.3 pct respectively [5] Group 6: Construction PMI - The construction PMI rose to 49.6%, up 0.5 pct month-on-month. The business activity expectation index was 57.9%, up 1.9 pct month-on-month, indicating improved confidence [6] Group 7: Market Expectations - Expectations for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing improved. The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation was 53.1%, up 0.3 pct, and the non-manufacturing business activity expectation was 56.2%, up 0.1 pct [6] Group 8: Bond Market View - Bond yields are expected to rise trendily as economic expectations are revised. For stock and bond allocation, the view is that economic growth may not decline significantly in H2 2025, structural issues like prices will improve, and the stock-bond allocation will continue to shift [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [2] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with PMI at 49.1%, marking a 2.0 percentage point increase, the highest in six months [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing economic conditions [4] - The service industry index fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, while certain sectors like railway transport and financial services remained robust [5] - The construction industry index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, reflecting increased confidence in the sector [5] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing production index at 50.0% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 49.5% [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for November is reported at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for November are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in production and demand [1] - The new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the second highest point since April, reflecting strong resilience in exports [1] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, indicating heightened confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) showed significant improvement, with their PMIs rising to 49.1% and 48.9%, respectively, while large enterprises saw a decline to 49.3% [2] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, demonstrating sustained growth in this sector [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 53.6%, while the factory price index rose to 48.2%, indicating a supportive environment for market prices due to improved supply and demand dynamics [3] - The procurement willingness index improved to 49.5%, reflecting a positive shift in purchasing behavior among enterprises [3] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.6%, showing signs of recovery, although it remains below the threshold of expansion [3] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory [4] - The new orders index for the service sector dropped to 45.6%, highlighting pressure on demand and insufficient recovery momentum [4] - Despite short-term demand disruptions, the service sector's confidence remains supported, with expectations for recovery as policy benefits are realized [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for November were 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, rising by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, with the production index reaching the critical point [1] - The new export orders index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the second highest point since April of this year, reflecting strong resilience in exports [1] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, indicating heightened confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - Large enterprises' PMI was 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 48.9% and 49.1%, up 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points, respectively, with small enterprises reaching a six-month high [2] - High-tech manufacturing maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors saw declines [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory - In November, the purchasing price index and factory price index were 53.6% and 48.2%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month [3] - The procurement willingness improved, with the procurement volume index at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, while raw material inventory index remained stable at 47.3% [3] - The construction sector showed signs of steady recovery, with the business activity index at 49.6%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and new orders index rising to 46.1% [3] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return below the prosperity line [4] - The new orders index for the service sector dropped to 45.6%, reflecting insufficient recovery in market demand [4] - Despite short-term demand disruptions, the service sector's confidence remains supported, with expectations for recovery as policy benefits are released [4]