Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In May, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [2][3] - The production index reached 50.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity, while the new orders index increased to 49.8%, up by 0.6 percentage points [3] - Large enterprises saw their PMI rise to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, with production and new orders indices at 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively [3] Group 2: High-Tech and Export Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were at 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively [4] - New export orders and import indices improved to 47.5% and 47.1%, reflecting a recovery in foreign trade orders, particularly from companies engaged in U.S. trade [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion [5] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity in tourism and dining during the May Day holiday [5] - The construction sector maintained expansion with a business activity index of 51.0%, although it showed a slight decline from the previous month [6] Group 4: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.4%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in production and business activities across sectors [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In April, the economic expansion pace slowed down, but business production and operation activities remained in an expansion state. The manufacturing industry was affected by tariff shocks, with enterprises actively reducing inventory due to risk aversion. The non - manufacturing industry was supported by front - loaded fiscal policies in the construction sector. In the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline, and after the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low, value - type equity assets may show better allocation value [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Manufacturing - **Supply and demand**: In April, the production index dropped 2.8 to 49.8, and the new order index dropped 2.6 to 49.2. The new export order dropped 4.3 to 44.7, while domestic demand relatively recovered. Industries such as food and medicine had both supply and demand indices above 53.0, while industries like textile and clothing and metal products saw significant declines in both indices, falling below the critical point [2]. - **Price and profit**: Affected by insufficient market demand and the continuous decline of some commodity prices, the main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47.0 and 44.8 respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 from the previous month [2]. - **Inventory and production expansion**: Uncertainty led enterprises to actively reduce inventory. In April, the purchase volume dropped 5.5 to 46.3, imports dropped 4.1 to 43.3, raw material inventory and finished product inventory decreased by 0.2 and 0.7 respectively. The production and operation activity expectation dropped 1.7 to 52.1, falling for three consecutive months, and the employment index dropped 0.3 to 47.9 [2]. - **Enterprise size impact**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.2, 48.8, and 48.7 respectively, down 2.0, 1.1, and 0.9 from the previous month, all below the critical point [3]. - **Industry segment impact**: The PMI of high - tech manufacturing dropped 0.8 to 51.5, equipment manufacturing dropped 2.4 to 49.6, consumer goods industry dropped 0.6 to 49.4, and basic raw material industry dropped 1.6 to 47.7 [3]. Non - manufacturing - **Overall situation**: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.4 month - on - month. The construction industry PMI dropped 1.5 to 51.9, and the service industry PMI dropped 0.2 to 50.1. Industries such as air transportation, telecommunications, and the Internet were in a high - prosperity range, while industries like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point [4][5]. - **Demand side**: The non - manufacturing external demand deteriorated significantly. The new order index was 44.9, down 1.7 month - on - month, and the new export order dropped 7.6 to 42.2. The new order index of the construction industry was 39.6, down 3.9 month - on - month, and that of the service industry was 45.9, down 1.2 month - on - month [5]. 4. Investment Advice Given the tariff shocks causing enterprises to shrink their businesses and the significant decline in the prosperity of the equipment manufacturing industry, and considering the central government's stable policy stance, in the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline. After the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low (1.6%), value - type equity assets are expected to gradually show better allocation value [6].

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强 耿佩璇 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作 者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月30日，国家统计局公布4月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%；非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点：4月新出口订单已明显下滑，但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱，但相对来看新订单指数更弱，生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%；剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落，边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看， 新订单指数下行至49.2%，而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近（49.8%），反映本月需求偏弱，生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征，其中新出口订单指数降幅较大，但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下，4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%，主因前期订单在"抢出口 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 51.5%, showing resilience against external pressures, while overall manufacturing production index falls to 49.8% [3][4] - New export orders have significantly declined by 4.3% to 44.7%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on export orders [3][4] Group 2 - The April PMI for imports decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 43.4%, and the purchasing index fell by 5.5 percentage points to 46.3%, indicating cautious spending by enterprises amid uncertainties [5] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, still above the critical point, but export orders dropped by 7.6 percentage points to 42.2% [6] - The construction sector continues to expand, with the civil engineering PMI rising by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating accelerated project progress [6][7] Group 3 - The comprehensive PMI output index for April is at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates overall expansion in production activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are reported at 49.8% and 50.4%, respectively, reflecting stable operations in manufacturing firms focused on domestic sales [7]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 recorded at 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a contraction in economic activity[1] - The production index and new orders index were at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both declining by 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The new export orders index fell to 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting a significant impact from external demand constraints[9] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52.0%[1] - Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 49.6%, 49.4%, and 47.7%, respectively, all showing declines from the previous month[1] - The production index for the equipment manufacturing sector remained stable at the critical point of 50%[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The overall production activity in manufacturing showed a slight decline, with the purchasing volume index at 46.3%, down 5.5 percentage points from last month[3] - Domestic demand has been supported by policies promoting consumption, with significant increases in the replacement of old consumer goods, leading to a sales boost of over 720 billion yuan[10] - The overall price levels for raw materials and finished products have decreased, with the purchasing price index at 47.0% and the factory price index at 44.8%, both down from the previous month[16] Future Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index for April was at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite a 1.2 percentage point decline from the previous month[22] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicating expansion in the sector[20] - Risks include fluctuations in international commodity prices and geopolitical tensions that could further impact economic stability[23]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction territory[4] - The production index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, while the new orders index declined to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points[10] - New export orders plummeted to 44.7%, a significant drop of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting weakened external demand[10] Group 2: Economic Factors and Trends - Seasonal factors and external environment changes contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with April historically showing negative month-on-month growth since 2016[6] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory output remained below the critical level, with the former at 47.0% and the latter at 44.8%, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[15] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, showing resilience compared to other sectors, which experienced declines[17] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion[18] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, supported by increased consumer spending during the Qingming Festival[22] - The construction sector's business activity index remained robust at 51.9%, driven by infrastructure projects and government initiatives[26]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ，前值为 50.5% 。具体分项来看： 1 ） PMI 生产指数为 49.8% ，前值为 52.6% ，回落 2.8 个百分点。 2 ） PMI 新订单指数为 49.2% ，前值为 51.8% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7% ，前值为 49.0% 。 3 ） PMI 从业人员指数为 47.9% ，前值为 48.2% 。 4 ）供货商配送时间指数 为 50.2% ，前值为 50.3% 。 5 ） PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0% ，前值为 47.2% 。 其他行业： 1 ）建筑业：建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9% ，比上月下降 1.5 个百分点。 2 ）服务业：服务业 商务活动指数为 50.1% ，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3 ）综合产出： 4 月，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2% ，比上月下降 1.2 个百分点，仍高于临界点。 PMI 点评：三类行业继续 ...

Economic Indicators - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped significantly by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0%, marking the lowest level since June 2023[3] - The new orders index fell sharply by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, while new export orders decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest since 2023[3] - The production index declined by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, reaching a 23-month low[3] Sector Performance - The inventory index for finished goods decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, remaining near a low of 47.7% for four consecutive months[4] - The construction PMI fell by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, but the civil engineering index rose by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating increased infrastructure investment[4] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 to 50.1, maintaining stability in service consumption[4] Future Outlook - The report suggests a potential slight rebound in manufacturing PMI in May and June due to expectations of a second round of export grabbing and marginal improvements in real estate supply-side confidence[5] - If export pressures increase later in the year, the central government may expand fiscal measures to stimulate consumption and investment[5] - The monetary policy forecast remains unchanged, with a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points in Q2 and a total reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100-150 basis points for the year[5]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In April, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49%, down from 50.5% in March[7] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, compared to 50.8% in the previous month[7] - The new export orders index dropped significantly by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating potential pressure on future exports[2] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The new orders index declined to 49.2%, while the production index remained near the threshold at 49.8%, suggesting weak demand but relatively high production levels[2] - Internal demand showed resilience, with the domestic orders index only down 2.3 percentage points to 49.9%[2] - Despite a decline in new export orders, foreign trade cargo volume increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3%, attributed to prior "export rush" orders[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Key sectors like high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant PMI declines of 0.8 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, while the consumer goods sector's PMI fell only 0.6 percentage points to 49.4%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in real estate, although infrastructure construction accelerated[3] - The service sector PMI experienced a minor decline of 0.2 percentage points to 50.1%, supported by strong performance in productive service industries[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report highlights increased uncertainty in external demand due to tariff hikes, while emphasizing the need to monitor changes in domestic demand[4] - The central political bureau meeting in April stressed the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, indicating potential support for domestic demand in manufacturing[4]