光期研究 见微知著 煤化工策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 目 录 1、期货市场及产业链原料情况 2、尿素：12月市场焦点回归国内，关注供需博弈情况 3、纯碱：宽松状态延续，12月期货盘面仍将底部震荡 4、玻璃：供应下降带动情绪回暖，但盘面趋势性动能有限 p 2 观 点 总 结 1、期货价格：11月尿素期货价格偏强震荡，截至11月28日，尿素期货主力01合约收盘价1677元/吨，较10月末收盘价上涨3.2%。 2、现货价格：11月尿素现货价格小幅上涨，截至11月28日，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1670元/吨、1660元/吨，均较10月末上涨80元/吨。 3、供应：11月尿素供应水平稳步回升，日产水平长期维持在20万吨以上波动。截至11月28日，尿素行业日产量20.34万吨，较10月末的18.88万吨提升7.73%。全月产 量预计597.36万吨，较10月提升1.66%。中旬北方供暖季开启，但目前气头企业尚未大规模降负荷，预计气头集中减产将于12月落实。考虑到新增产能将明显抵消后 ...

Core Insights - Baofeng Energy's stock price increased by 2.00% to 18.36 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 134.64 billion CNY as of December 1 [1] - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 46.43% and a net profit increase of 97.27% for the first nine months of 2025 [2] - Baofeng Energy has distributed a total of 17.348 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 9.145 billion CNY in the last three years [3] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baofeng Energy achieved a revenue of 35.545 billion CNY and a net profit of 8.950 billion CNY [2] - The company's stock price has increased by 13.68% year-to-date, with a recent 5-day increase of 2.97% [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 3.70% to 65,400, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 3.57% to 112,206 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, with notable changes in their holdings [3]

中央纪委国家监委网站 初英杰 中国大唐多伦15万千瓦风光储制氢一体化示范项目制氢电站内的氢气缓冲罐。受访单位供图 风力发电机组的叶片悠悠转动，光伏板在阳光下熠熠生辉。在内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟多伦县，广袤的大草 原上有着无限"风光"。我国首个绿氢耦合煤化工示范项目——中国大唐多伦15万千瓦风光储制氢一体化示范 项目就坐落在这里。 中国大唐多伦15万千瓦风光储制氢一体化示范项目的风力发电机组和光伏板。受访单位供图 依托内蒙古得天独厚的风光资源，该项目运用"绿电制绿氢"技术，将新能源与传统煤化工紧密相连，形成了 可复制推广的氢能产业集聚发展样板，成功入选国家能源局能源领域氢能试点（第一批）名单。 2025年11月19日，大唐米家营制氢风光储电站外景。受访单位供图 制氢电站车间内景。受访单位供图 2025年9月10日，制氢电站职工在巡检设备。 受访单位供图 制氢端是指大唐米家营制氢电站，共建有13台碱性电解液制氢设备即电解槽，其中有一台制氢规模为每小时 2000标方（气体流量计量单位），是我国风光制氢行业首台（套）大容量电解槽。在这里，由绿电所制的绿 氢可实现"隔墙供氢"，经管道直接送往附近的煤化工生产线，在那里替代 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US is experiencing further short-term credit easing, but long-term resistance is expected to increase [2][3] - The driving force behind China's price recovery is strengthening, with greater momentum for RMB appreciation as US credit easing continues [3][8] - If the US maintains its credit easing, it may lead to increased inflationary pressures overseas, favoring large-cap value stocks in the Chinese market [3][8] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant decline in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 5.23% in November [11] - The industrial profits in China showed a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in October, down 27.1 percentage points from September, indicating a challenging economic environment [8] - The report notes that while most sectors declined, consumer sectors showed resilience, with specific industries like fisheries and steel raw materials outperforming [28][32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The chemical sector has shown positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index by 4.54%, and the CSI 300 by 1.64% during the week. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.49%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.98% [2][14] - Key sub-industries within the chemical sector have experienced varied performance, with membrane materials leading at 7.48% growth, followed by titanium dioxide at 5.85% and chlor-alkali at 4.57% [2][17] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical announced a price increase of $200/ton for MDI products in Southeast Asia and South Asia starting December 1, 2025, due to market conditions and supply stability [3] - South Korea raised anti-dumping duties on PET film imports from China, significantly increasing the tax rate on Tianjin Wanhua's products from 3.84% to 36.98% [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on scarce growth targets. Recommended companies include Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies. Key players in the panel supply chain include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Light Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [4] - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector are tightening the supply-demand balance. Recommended companies include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and Batian Co. [5] - **Fluorochemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants is stabilizing profitability, with a focus on companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. [5] - **Economic Recovery**: As the economy improves, leading chemical companies are expected to benefit significantly from price and demand recovery. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [9] - **Vitamin Supply Disruptions**: BASF's supply issues with vitamins A and E are expected to create market imbalances, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng recommended for attention [9] Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: Pure MDI prices in East China rose to 19,700 RMB/ton, a 1.55% increase week-on-week, with operating rates stable at 68% [30] - **Tire Industry**: Full steel tire operating rates increased to 63.91%, while semi-steel tire rates decreased to 72.37% [54] - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices rose to 1,679.1 RMB/ton, with operating rates for urea at 86.4% [67][68] - **Vitamins**: Vitamin A prices remained stable at 63 RMB/kg, while Vitamin E prices fell by 2.88% to 50.5 RMB/kg [86][87] - **Fluorochemicals**: Fluorspar prices decreased to 3,350 RMB/ton, with a decline in operating rates to 34.12% [91]

经济日报记者 祝君壁 国务院国资委近日发布《中央企业高质量发展报告（2025）》，聚焦去年以来，中央企业在增强核 心功能、提高核心竞争力、推动高质量发展等方面的主要举措与成效。报告显示，中央企业在老旧设备 更新、数字化绿色化改造等方面投资超8000亿元，有力支撑内需提振；在航天、能源、通信等领域打造 了一批重大工程、国之重器；在集成电路、工业母机等领域突破了一批"卡脖子""原创性"技术。 推进产业提质升级 "'十五五'时期是基本实现社会主义现代化的关键阶段，中国企业既共享发展机遇，更肩负共同责 任。"在日前举办的第八届中国企业论坛上，国务院国资委主任张玉卓表示，围绕落实"十五五"规划建 议重点任务，建议中央企业与各类企业携手推进产业提质升级，加快拓展高质量发展的新蓝海。 近年来，通过深入实施央企产业焕新、未来产业起航、"人工智能+"等专项行动，传统产业转型步 伐明显加快，战略性新兴产业积厚成势，为企业未来可持续发展提供了新的增长点。"面向'十五五'， 要坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，做强做优增量、盘活存量，优化提升传统产业，因地制宜培育壮 大新兴产业和对外产业，努力开辟增长'第二曲线'，加快推动构建以先进制 ...

"十四五"以来，榆林全力推进能源结构优化与产业低碳转型。曹治表示，当地围绕"多能融合、清洁高 效"主线，着力构建现代能源体系。在能源生产侧，新能源装机实现翻番，氢能利用取得突破。在消费 侧，当地坚决遏制"两高"项目盲目发展，累计更新工业落后设备2.88万台，淘汰落后煤电机组41.7万千 瓦。 "截至今年9月底，榆林市万元GDP能耗强度较2020年下降16%。"在近日陕西省举办的新闻发布会上， 榆林市委常委、副市长曹治公布了这一数据。 "十四五"以来，由榆林牵头的榆鄂宁现代煤化工集群入选国家级先进制造业集群；榆林围绕煤化工产业 高端化、低碳化、多元化发展和多能融合主线，全力推进国家级能源革命创新示范区建设。 科技创新是榆林能源转型的核心驱动力。曹治介绍，榆林通过"基础研究+中试试验+产业示范"全周期 模式，聚力打造三大基地。"低温氨分解制氢等10项技术取得突破，全球规模最大的氢化镁等3个中试项 目试验成功。"此外，榆林开展二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）规模已达115万吨，为区域降碳提 供了关键技术支撑。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) released the "Central Enterprises High-Quality Development Report (2025)", highlighting major initiatives and achievements in enhancing core functions and competitiveness of central enterprises [1] - Central enterprises invested over 800 billion yuan in upgrading old equipment and digital and green transformations, significantly supporting domestic demand [1] - The report emphasizes breakthroughs in critical technologies in fields like integrated circuits and industrial mother machines, addressing key technological bottlenecks [1] Group 2: Industry Upgrading - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, central enterprises are encouraged to collaborate with various enterprises to promote industrial upgrading and explore new growth areas for high-quality development [2] - The focus is on intelligent, green, and integrated development, optimizing traditional industries while nurturing emerging industries [2] - The National Energy Investment Group is advancing the high-end, diversified, and low-carbon development of coal chemical industries to enhance the green and intelligent aspects of the industry [2] Group 3: Innovation and Development - Central enterprises prioritize technological innovation, with R&D expenditure averaging a 6.5% annual growth since the 14th Five-Year Plan, exceeding 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years [4] - The establishment of 97 original technology sources and 23 innovation alliances aims to enhance collaboration with universities and research institutions [4] - The focus is on integrating technology and industry innovation to boost self-reliance in technology and develop new productive forces [4] Group 4: Collaborative Development - The 20th National Congress emphasizes building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy through collaboration among large, medium, and small enterprises [6] - The SASAC highlights the importance of innovation and collaboration to enhance the resilience of industrial and supply chains [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reports over 140,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, playing a crucial role in supporting the industrial chain [7][8] Group 5: Action Initiatives - Starting from September 2023, SASAC and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology initiated the "Central Enterprises Industry Chain Collaborative Development Action", organizing over 40 matching activities in key areas [8] - The action aims to create an open and shared industrial ecosystem, enhancing the resilience and safety of supply chains [8]

近年来，通过深入实施央企产业焕新、未来产业起航、"人工智能+"等专项行动，传统产业转型步伐明显加 快，战略性新兴产业积厚成势，为企业未来可持续发展提供了新的增长点。"面向'十五五'，要坚持智能化、 绿色化、融合化方向，做强做优增量、盘活存量，优化提升传统产业，因地制宜培育壮大新兴产业和对外产 业，努力开辟增长'第二曲线'，加快推动构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系，为巩固壮大我国实体 经济根基、推动经济持续健康发展提供有力支撑。"张玉卓说。 党的二十届四中全会提出建设能源强国目标，要求"十五五"初步建成新型能源体系，全面提升电力系统安全 韧性水平。国家能源投资集团有限责任公司相关负责人介绍，国家能源集团持续推动煤化工高端化、多元 化、低碳化发展，着力增加产业含绿量、含智量。 国务院国资委近日发布《中央企业高质量发展报告（2025）》，聚焦去年以来，中央企业在增强核心功能、 提高核心竞争力、推动高质量发展等方面的主要举措与成效。报告显示，中央企业在老旧设备更新、数字化 绿色化改造等方面投资超8000亿元，有力支撑内需提振；在航天、能源、通信等领域打造了一批重大工程、 国之重器；在集成电路、工业母机等领域突破 ...

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