明后两天，黄金市场很可能要迎来一场更大的风暴。 就在本周，金价刚刚经历了一轮"自由落体"式的下跌，伦敦金现从历史高点暴跌超过200美元，国内金 店价格也应声连续下调。 有权威分析指出，当前黄金的技术走势与2008年金融危机前的回调曲线惊人相似，首席策略师Chris Vermeulen甚至预警金价可能存在最高45%的深度回调空 间。 这一切信号都指向，未来48小时，市场情绪和关键价位的博弈将异常激烈，一场决定短期方向的"变盘"或许就在眼前。 历史的镜子总能提供有价值的参照。 在黄金市场上，大幅回调并非罕见现象。 例如，在2008年金融危机期间，金价在7个月内从1032美元跌至681美元，跌 幅达34%。 当时，雷曼兄弟破产引发了全球流动性恐慌，机构为了换取现金而抛售各类资产，黄金也未能幸免。 最近的一次显著回调发生在2022年，当时为了应对高通胀，美联储开启了激进的加息周期，导致金价从2070美元跌至1615美元，跌幅约22%。 这些历史案 例表明，在特定宏观冲击下，金价完全可能发生快速且深度的调整。 将当前情况与历史对比，分析师Vermeulen指出，若参照斐波那契回撤分析，本轮回调的38%位置（大约2550 ...

上周五的美国9月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨3%，略低于经济学家预期的3.1%。但数据公布后只是 减缓了价格的跌幅，昨天的周评文章也有写，现阶段黄金价格的下调是健康的，至少较高位回吐10%水 平才是合理的(现在只有5%)，因此本周我们继续观察金价的震荡下跌(不指望单边)。 市场方面，本周将有美联储决议，投资者将等待美联储主席鲍威尔的前瞻指引，普遍预计美联储将在12 月的会议上进一步降息。黄金作为一种不孳息资产，通常在低利率环境中表现较好。 另外，美国官员表示，中美两国高级经济官员周日已敲定一项贸易协议的框架，供两国元首在本周晚些 时候决定是否签署。该协议将暂停美方加征关税及中方稀土出口管制措施。 摘要周一（10月27日）欧盘时段，贵金属延续小幅回调状态，俄乌冲突缓和以及中美经贸谈判给市场风 险担忧缓和空间。在美国通胀数据走软后，金价反弹，但在关键阻力位下方依然脆弱。银价正在从近期 高点回调，目前强劲的支撑位支撑着看涨结构。美元指数继续盘整，盘整后可能恢复下跌压力 周一（10月27日）欧盘时段，贵金属延续小幅回调状态，俄乌冲突缓和以及中美经贸谈判给市场风险担 忧缓和空间。在美国通胀数据走软后，金价反弹，但在 ...

更多白银资讯，白银数据，白银etf数据，白银价格走势，敬请关注金投白银（https://ag.cngold.or）。 日期 ETF白银净持仓量(吨) ETF白银净持仓量(盎司) ETF白银净持仓量总价值(万美元) 2025-10-23 15469.20 497346411.9 2441434.29 2025-10-22 15597.61 501474909 2394291.69 今日（10月24日），ETF白银最新净持仓量数据如下所示： ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a supply-demand gap, with a projected deficit of 4,633 tons in 2024 and an expected shortfall of 3,660 tons in 2025, primarily driven by increased demand from the photovoltaic sector [1][3] - Silver supply is concentrated and shows a declining trend, with global silver mine production expected to decrease from 274,000 tons in 2014 to 252,000 tons in 2024 [2] - Investment demand for silver is being catalyzed by rising geopolitical tensions, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset alongside industrial demand [3][4] Industry Overview - The global silver supply is projected at 31,574 tons and demand at 36,207 tons for 2024, indicating a persistent supply shortage since 2021 [1][3] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for silver demand in photovoltaic applications from 2014 to 2024 is estimated at 15.09%, with 6,147 tons of silver expected to be used in this sector in 2024 [1][3] - Silver mine production is forecasted to decline, with Mexico accounting for 23% of global output, while recycled silver supply is growing at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2019 to 2024 [2] Price Dynamics - Silver's unique dual attributes as both an industrial and financial asset contribute to its price volatility, with expectations of price increases driven by a combination of weak supply and strong demand [4][5] - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in late 2025 could further support silver prices, alongside a recovery in industrial demand [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Shengda Resources are highlighted for their potential growth in silver reserves and production, driven by ongoing projects [5] - Xinyi Silver Tin is noted for its significant silver resource holdings and ongoing expansion projects, which are expected to boost future production [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent stock performance of Hunan Silver, which has seen a significant price drop of 2.13% on October 24, with a current price of 6.43 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 18.15 billion CNY [1] - Hunan Silver's stock has increased by 89.68% year-to-date, but has experienced a decline of 20.02% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has been active on the stock market, appearing on the "Dragon and Tiger List" five times this year, with the most recent appearance on October 22, where it recorded a net buy of -42.32 million CNY [1] Group 2 - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. is located in Chenzhou, Hunan Province, and was established on November 8, 2004, with its stock listed on January 28, 2014 [2] - The company's main business involves the mining, smelting, and deep processing of non-ferrous metals such as silver, lead, and zinc, forming an integrated production system and full industry chain layout [2] - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Hunan Silver was 88,000, an increase of 21.30% from the previous period, with an average of 25,127 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 17.56% [2] Group 3 - Hunan Silver has distributed a total of 162 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in precious metals, including a 6% drop in gold prices, indicates a potential shift in investment logic for non-ferrous metals, prompting investors to reassess opportunities amidst market fluctuations [1][2][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold experienced a dramatic decline after reaching a historical high of $4380 per ounce, with a notable single-day drop of 6% on October 21, 2025, highlighting the risks in the current market [1][6]. - The price of silver is supported by its dual role as both an industrial and financial asset, with a projected global supply-demand gap of 4633 tons in 2024, primarily driven by solar energy demand [8][10]. - The investment logic for gold is influenced by three main factors: expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases, which provide structural support [5][6]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper is viewed as a critical component in the global green energy transition and AI technology revolution, with expectations that its price could exceed $10,000 per ton by 2026 [11]. - The recent fluctuations in rare earth prices, which rose by 12.72% and then fell by 11.69% in October, underscore their strategic importance in modern technology and industrial applications [12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to utilize professional tools and resources to navigate the complexities of the non-ferrous metals market, with options like actively managed funds and ETFs providing different exposure strategies [13][16]. - The combination of active and passive investment strategies is recommended for investors to capture overall industry opportunities while focusing on high-potential segments [17].

金价：回调藏富路，理性看调整 20251023 摘要 短期内，地缘政治风险缓解和前期超买导致黄金价格大幅回调，首个支 撑位预计在 3,950 美元左右，若跌破则可能下探至 3,700 美元。投资者 应关注市场情绪变化，避免追涨杀跌。 长期来看，全球政治经济不确定性及央行购金需求增加支撑金价，中长 期黄金价格仍具备上涨潜力。投资者不应轻易抛售黄金，可关注地缘政 治事件对金价的扰动。 黄金股与金价出现背离，金价上涨时黄金股未同步上涨，金价下跌时黄 金股跌停。投资者应避免情绪亢奋时追涨，关注长期趋势和基本面。 黄金股投资策略：避免追涨，在金价大幅下跌时关注估值较低的股票， 如资源量大的龙头公司山东黄金，以及估值低于 15 倍的标的，关注山 金国际等成长性公司。 金价回调周期受流动性挤兑和基本面影响，前者调整时间较短（约两 周），后者较长（调整约 4 周，盘整约 13 周）。量化指标可参考 CBOE 黄金 ETF 波动率和价格偏离均值标准差。 Q&A 最近黄金价格波动较大，市场对未来金价走势有何看法？ 近期黄金价格波动显著，尤其是 10 月 21 日国际金价和银价出现了近 12 年以 来的最大单日跌幅。黄金价格下跌了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after experiencing the largest single-day drop in nearly 12 years, gold prices continued to decline, approaching the $4000 per ounce mark [1] - Citibank has shifted its outlook on gold from bullish to bearish, setting a target price of $4000 per ounce for the next 0-3 months [1] - CITIC Securities noted that silver trading is overheated, suggesting a slowdown in bullish momentum for both gold and silver [1] Group 2 - As of the latest update, spot gold was reported at $4080.27 per ounce, down 0.45% [1] - Gold stocks have continued to decline, with China Silver Group down 6.06% to HKD 0.62, Lingbao Gold down 4.17% to HKD 16.53, China Gold International down 4.07% to HKD 122.6, and Zijin Gold International down 3.35% to HKD 126.9 [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop after reaching a historical high, with spot gold falling by 5.31% and silver by 7.11%, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and market activity [1][3][5]. Market Reaction - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices has led to decreased sales in the gold market, with many consumers adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for further price drops before making purchases [3][5]. - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei gold market, sellers reported unprecedented price fluctuations, with gold prices dropping from 990 yuan to 930 yuan per gram in a single day [3]. Price Dynamics - The recent price correction is attributed to several factors, including excessive previous gains, a strong dollar, the end of India's seasonal gold buying peak, and profit-taking by investors concerned about overvaluation [5]. - Citibank predicts that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and easing U.S.-China trade tensions may lead to a period of price consolidation for gold, with a short-term bearish outlook and a target price of $4,000 per ounce over the next 1-3 months [5]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts from Guosen Securities believe that the long-term bullish trend for gold will continue due to structural factors such as the reconstruction of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization, and ongoing central bank purchases [6]. - HSBC forecasts that the upward momentum for gold could persist until 2026, setting a target price of $5,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits and the demand for gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks [6].