期 货 研 究 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6292 | 4402 | 4003 | 6036 | 435 | | 涨跌 | -84 | -54 | -86 | -56 | -10.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.32% | -1.21% | -2.10% | -0.92% | -2.44% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -28 | -58 | -82 | -12 | -2.4 | | 前日收盘价 | -38 | -56 | -79 | -14 | -2.1 | | 涨跌 | 10 | -2 | -3 | 2 | -0.3 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | ...

摘要：【图】2025年6月内蒙古自治区原油加工量统计分析 2025年1-6月原油加工量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前6个月，内蒙古自治区规模以上工业企业原油加工量累计达到了202.5 万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，下降了6.7%，增速较2024年同期低3.1个百分点，增速较同期全国低 8.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业原油加工量36161.3万吨的比重为0.6%。 图表：内蒙古自治区原油加工量分月（累计值）统计 2025年6月原油加工量分析： 单独看2025年6月份，内蒙古自治区规模以上工业企业原油加工量达到了34.5万吨，与2024年同期的数 据相比，6月份的原油加工量下降了4.2%，增速较2024年同期高5.8个百分点，增速较同期全国低12.7个 百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业原油加工量6224.5万吨的比重为0.6%。 图表：内蒙古自治区原油加工量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油现状及发展前景 化工发展前景趋势分析 日化的现状和发展趋势 ...

报告摘要 地缘缓和叠加供需担忧驱动油价下跌，IEA再度下调原油需求预期 本周市场继续交易中东地缘政治风险缓和，叠加需求担忧，油价持续下跌。截至10月17日，布伦特、WTI原油 分别报收61.34、57.25美元/桶，较上周收盘分别下跌1.2%、1.7%。IEA在10月月报中预计25Q4-26全年石油消 费保持低迷，预计25年全球原油需求增长70万桶/日，较上月预测下调4万桶/日。供给端，IEA预计2025年全球 原油供给增长300万桶/日，较上月预测上调30万桶/日，其中OPEC+增产140万桶/日，非OPEC+增产160万桶/ 日。总的来看，当前全球原油市场面临过剩和累库风险，油价短期或持续承压。 "三桶油"油价下行期业绩韧性凸显，体现穿越周期属性 2025H1中国石油、中国石化、中国海油25H1归母净利润分别同比-5.2%、-39.8%、-12.8%，中国石油、中国海 油当期业绩水平高于历史油价水平接近时期。2025H1五大国际油气巨头埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、壳牌、道达尔 归母净利润分别同比-15.3%、-39.7%、-22.9%、-31.2%，BP基础重置成本利润同比-31.8%。中国石油、中国海 油25H ...

"总书记的这句话，为吉林市发展规划指明方向。"吉林市委书记胡斌表示，"以实体经济为根基，强化 集群培育、精准服务企业、突出创新驱动，吉林市高质量发展稳步向前。" 锻长板，巩固优势产业领先地位。 2025年2月听取吉林省委和省政府工作汇报 一句话，指明了方向。 "要守牢实体经济这个根基，统筹推动传统产业转型、优势产业壮大和新质生产力培育"，今年2月，习 近平总书记在听取吉林省委和省政府工作汇报时深刻指出。 吉林省吉林市，是一座因工业而兴的城市。"一五"时期，新中国156个重点项目，7个半落在吉林市。 这里，曾生产出新中国第一袋化肥、第一桶染料、第一炉电石。然而，与其他老工业基地一样，吉林市 也因产业结构偏重、竞争力不强等问题，一度面临发展难题。 中石油吉林石化启动转型升级项目，总投资339亿元，在166公顷土地上展开"炼油向化工、化工向材 料、材料向中高端"的深度转型。现场办公助企纾困解难，组建工作专班挂图作战，吉林市全力以赴确 保项目如期投产。 步入建龙钢铁生产车间，机器人、无人车等智能装备配合有序，集控大厅实时监测各项数据，企业热轧 效率提升17.1%。 育新机，开辟新兴产业。 巩固好存量，吉林市还牢牢扭住 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly for the "Big Three" oil companies in China [5]. Core Views - The report expresses a strong outlook on the resilience of oil prices for the "Big Three" oil companies, anticipating a recovery in natural gas consumption as the winter heating season approaches [4][9]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its global oil demand forecast, indicating a potential oversupply and inventory build-up risk in the oil market, which may keep oil prices under pressure in the short term [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Oil Price Resilience and Demand Forecast - The report highlights that geopolitical easing and demand concerns have driven oil prices down, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $61.34 and $57.25 per barrel, respectively, as of October 17, showing declines of 1.2% and 1.7% from the previous week [9][10]. - The IEA projects a modest increase in global oil demand of 700,000 barrels per day for 2025, a downward revision of 40,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast, while global oil supply is expected to increase by 3 million barrels per day [10][12]. 2. Performance of "Big Three" Oil Companies - In the first half of 2025, the net profit declines for China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) were -5.2%, -39.8%, and -12.8%, respectively, indicating that their performance is more resilient compared to international oil giants [2][12]. - The report notes that the "Big Three" are expected to enhance their production and reserves, with planned increases in oil and gas equivalent production of 1.6%, 1.5%, and 5.9% for CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC, respectively [2][12]. 3. Natural Gas Consumption Outlook - The report anticipates a cold winter in 2025, which is expected to boost natural gas consumption, with a gradual recovery in demand observed since Q2 2025 [3][22]. - The "Big Three" have seen a 3.2% year-on-year increase in natural gas sales in the first half of 2025, outpacing domestic demand growth, and are expected to benefit from ongoing market reforms that enhance pricing flexibility [3][29]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their associated oil service engineering firms, as well as leading companies in refining and chemical sectors, indicating a positive long-term investment outlook [4].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月19日 [关注经济数据和重要会议 Table_NewTitle] 指引，寻找资 产配置方向 ——资产配置周报（2025/10/13-2025/10/17） [table_main] 投资要点 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。10月17日当周，全球股市表现分化，法国政府在两项不信任动议投票 中过关，法国CAC指数周内领涨，美股依靠周五交易时间内中美新一轮贸易摩擦可能 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil. After the holiday, the shipment volume increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. - The supply of asphalt increased slightly, with the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises reaching 35.8% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [4]. - The demand showed a month - on - month increase. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [4]. - The spot price of asphalt continued to decline under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt this period was 3,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous period [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate slightly increased due to the rotation to produce residue oil and shutdown for maintenance at some refineries, and the intermittent production at some main refineries in East China and Jiangsu Xinhai [4]. - Demand: The shipment volume increased month - on - month. Both factory and social inventories showed a destocking trend. The actual trading atmosphere was average in East China, and low - priced resources in social inventories were given priority [4]. - Valuation: The spot price of asphalt continued to decline, with the price range widening. All 7 regional prices decreased, with the largest decline of 4.2% in North China [4]. - Strategy: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading were provided [4]. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: The disk price and trading volume of asphalt futures are presented, along with the comparison of Brent, WTI, and SC prices [11]. - Spot: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, as well as the price differences between regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - Spread: The basis and inter - month spread of asphalt are presented, including the basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, etc. [14][15][16] Fundamental Data - Demand: The consumption of asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, etc. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.9% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [20][24]. - Supply: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) week - on - week and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) year - on - year. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses decreased by 2.1% [28].

Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects, including industrial production, people and freight flow, consumption, investment, export, and the performance of major asset classes. It points out that industrial production shows seasonal recovery, people flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction shows weakness while the real - estate market recovers seasonally, port throughput decreases, and shipping indices are differentiated. Also, major asset classes show distinct trends with bond indices rising, stock indices falling, most commodities dropping, and foreign currencies appreciating [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. Among them, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 0.33%; the STAR 50 Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index fell the most, with a decline of 3.43%. Foreign currencies appreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest increase, a weekly gain of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciating against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.05% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Production shows seasonal recovery. In the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.25% compared with last week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar production increased by 1.35 pcts to 41.33% week - on - week, the operating rate of float glass increased by 0.34 pcts to 76.65% week - on - week, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 pcts to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament decreased by 0.03 pcts to 91.06% week - on - week, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 1.92 pcts to 75.56% week - on - week, and the operating rate of methanol increased by 4.00 pcts to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 pcts to 72.72% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 20.56 pcts to 64.52% week - on - week [1]. 3. People and Freight Flow - People flow increased, while freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. In terms of freight flow, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, but the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales showed a decline, and prices were differentiated. The previous period's automobile wholesale sales decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail sales increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates both declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices were differentiated, with pork prices decreasing by 2.38% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 0.13% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction showed weakness, while the real - estate market recovered seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 2.1 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices were differentiated. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the SCFI index increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the CCFI index decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [1].

重点领域投资亮点纷呈，特色优势产业集群表现突出，落实执行项目3133个，引进区外到位资金 7151.71亿元，同比增长19.02%。 中国（新疆）自由贸易试验区建设成为招商引资重要平台，落实执行项目263个，引进区外到位资金 494.8亿元，乌鲁木齐片区、喀什片区、霍尔果斯片区分别到位259.56亿元、85.77亿元、149.47亿元。 （完） 按投资主体性质划分，国有企业投资活力强劲，到位资金2692.73亿元，同比增长38.01%，主要投向风 电光电、石油化工、火电、煤炭等领域；民间投资作为主力军，到位资金5782.64亿元，占比68.23%， 同比增长10.87%，投资范围涵盖风电光电、房地产、商贸物流、电子信息技术、新材料等领域。援疆 省市持续发挥帮扶作用，19个援疆省市到位资金5667.75亿元，占总资金的66.87%，同比增长16.73%， 北京、浙江、广东总量居前。 产业结构投资持续优化。数据显示，前三季度新疆第一产业落实执行项目177个，引进区外到位资金 142.74亿元，同比增长12.75%；第二产业项目2375个，到位资金6074.2亿元，同比增长16.03%；第三产 业项目1454个，到 ...

摘要：【图】2025年6月江苏省硫酸产量统计分析 2025年1-6月硫酸产量分析： 图表：江苏省硫酸产量分月（当月值）统计 注：从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务 收入2000万元。 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前6个月，江苏省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量累计达到了118.8万吨，与 2024年同期的数据相比，下降了9.5%，增速较2024年同期低8.3个百分点，增速较同期全国低15.8个百 分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业硫酸产量5490.93572万吨的比重为2.2%。 图表：江苏省硫酸产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年6月硫酸产量分析： 单独看2025年6月份，江苏省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量达到了17.5万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，6 月份的产量下降了24.2%，增速较2024年同期低30.4个百分点，增速较同期全国低33.2个百分点，约占 同期全国规模以上企业硫酸产量922.35982万吨的比重为1.9%。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展前景趋势分析 化工的现状和发展趋势 日化行业现状与发展趋势润滑油市场现状及前景分 ...