智利《信使报》（电子版）1月2日报道，作为智利的主要出口产品，铜在2025年达到 史上最高年平均价格，最后一个交易日以每磅5.672美元收盘。Plusmining矿业咨询公司 表示，鉴于当前电气化进程、电网建设及能源转型等持续推进，2026年铜的结构性需 求仍然强劲，预计铜价将在每磅5至6美元区间波动，高于此前预测的每磅4.5至5美元。 GEM矿业咨询公司也预测铜价将在每磅5至6美元之间，主要原因是库存水平较低以及 美国的不确定性。智利发展大学企业与社会研究中心表示，据国际组织预计，受全球 供应结构性缺口的影响，2026年平均铜价将为每磅5.15美元。专家表示，每年铜价每上 涨1美分，智利政府通过智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）的税收将额外获得2000万至2500 万美元的收入，还将助于增强智利比索的汇率，从而降低燃料、食品和技术服务等价 格。铜价高企在支撑矿业投资和延长现有矿山寿命的同时，也凸显了智利面临的核心 挑战，即提高执行项目的能力、优化审批流程以及提高生产效率。 （原标题：行业预测2026年铜价仍将处于高位） ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，智利国家铜业公司2025年铜产量将比2024年多5000吨，预计2026年铜产量将达到134.4万吨。 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Shanghai Copper Daily Report: Medium and Long - Term Uptrend Remains Intact - **Release Date**: January 7, 2026 - **Reporting Institution**: Guantong Futures Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The medium - and long - term upward trend of Shanghai copper remains unchanged. Although the upward momentum has weakened and the upward sentiment has cooled after several days of rising, the strong logic remains intact. The supply - demand tight balance drives copper prices up, with the market's risk - aversion sentiment and demand expectations boosted by the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela, and concerns about the supply side intensified by mine accidents [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The upward speed of copper prices slowed down today. The market opened high and closed higher, with a gain at the end of the session. On January 2, Capstone Copper, a Canadian copper miner, announced a strike at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile, with production expected to drop by 70%. In 2026, copper smelters cannot make profits through long - term contracts, and the spot market remains weakly stable. By - products such as sulfuric acid and gold have become the main profit points. In December, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China increased by 7.5 tons month - on - month (a 6.8% increase) and 7.54% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 137,200 tons year - on - year (an 11.38% increase). Downstream copper products are mostly in the year - end accounting period, and procurement has become more cautious after the continuous rise in copper prices. The copper foil market has stronger demand than other copper products due to the booming terminal market, and AI computing power and technology concepts support copper prices. The impact of purchase tax on the new energy vehicle market and its potential transmission to the raw material end should be monitored [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: Shanghai copper opened high and closed higher, with a gain at the end of the session [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was - 60 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 10 yuan/ton. On January 6, 2026, the LME official price was $13,225/ton, and the spot premium was + $44.5/ton [4]. 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of January 5, the latest data showed that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $44.96/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [7]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 96,500 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons from the previous period. As of January 5, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,800 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 143,200 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 508,900 short tons, an increase of 5,508 short tons from the previous period [10].

Core Viewpoint - The copper futures market is experiencing a "slowdown in price increase and adjustment," with short-term demand weakness contrasting with long-term supply shortages, which are expected to support copper prices in the future [1][11]. Short-term Adjustment Reasons - Demand Weakness: Traditional sectors are dragging down demand, while emerging demand has not fully materialized. The operating rates of copper rod and cable enterprises have dropped significantly due to price mismatches, leading to reduced production [2]. - Emotional Factors: High copper prices have led to profit-taking among speculators, contributing to price volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy changes have also increased market unpredictability [3]. - Inventory Accumulation: Domestic refined copper inventories have increased, reflecting a short-term contradiction between weak demand and sufficient supply, which puts pressure on copper prices [4]. Long-term Support for Price Increase - Structural Shortages: Global copper mine supply remains tight, with major mining companies reporting a decrease in copper production. The overall increase in supply is limited, with expectations for only 612,000 tons of new copper mine output in 2026 [5][6]. - Emerging Demand: New sectors such as AI, energy storage, and renewable energy are driving copper demand. Predictions indicate significant increases in copper consumption from data centers and lithium-ion battery production in the coming years [7]. Future Trends - Short-term (1-2 months): Copper prices are expected to remain in a "high-level fluctuation" pattern, influenced by traditional demand weakness and inventory accumulation, while speculative buying may provide some support [8]. - Mid-term (3-4 months): Supply shortages are anticipated to worsen, supporting copper prices, alongside the gradual release of emerging demand. Price targets may exceed $14,000 per ton [9]. - Long-term (5-12 months): The "super cycle" for copper prices is expected to continue, driven by structural shortages and rising demand from new sectors. Long-term prices may surpass $16,000 per ton, setting new historical highs [10]. Conclusion - The recent short-term adjustment in copper prices is attributed to "demand weakness" and "emotional fluctuations," rather than a reversal of the long-term trend. The long-term outlook remains positive, supported by structural shortages and emerging demand. Investors should focus on "demand recovery" and "inventory digestion" in the short term while seizing "structural opportunities" in the long term [11].

Group 1: Copper Market Performance - The Shanghai copper market showed significant strength, with the main contract opening at 100,890 CNY/ton and closing at 105,320 CNY/ton, marking a 4.88% increase; the trading volume reached 223,600 lots, with an increase of 7,332 lots in a single day [7][8] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - December copper ore supply is characterized by "zero processing fees" and potential strikes; CSPT has set the long-term benchmark at $0/ton, indicating ongoing tightness in concentrate supply [8] - The spot TC settlement price is at -$44.98/dry ton, reflecting a decrease of $1.3 compared to the previous period; Kaz Minerals has reduced direct supply to China, opting for bidding from traders, with a bid price of -$50, further limiting raw material options for Chinese smelters [8] - The Kamoa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to produce its first batch of anodes by December 29, with significant production increases anticipated only after Q2 2026; the Mantoverde union in Chile has entered a mediation period, with a strike window extending into early January, maintaining high supply disruption risks [8] Group 3: Macroeconomic Context - The ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. for December 2025 slightly declined from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for ten consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024; new orders have contracted for the fourth month in a row, and employment numbers have decreased for eleven months [3][9] - Weak economic data may continue to prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy, which could create a favorable macro environment for copper prices [9] Group 4: Demand Outlook - Currently, the copper market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with external premiums leading to increased refined copper exports; however, demand remains relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors [9] - If copper prices decline, it is expected that downstream replenishment activity will increase [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, copper prices are expected to remain at a high level, and the center of gravity may move upward further. The upward momentum mainly comes from the resonance of the macro - loose liquidity and the supply - side gap [68]. - On the macro - front, the Fed is expected to continue the interest - rate cut cycle, providing support for copper prices from the financial attribute level. On the supply - side, the supply growth of refined copper, especially in China, will be significantly suppressed. On the demand - side, the structural transformation is deepening, but the actual growth intensity of emerging demand in 2026 needs to be tested [68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, copper prices fluctuated strongly, with the price center rising significantly. The cumulative increase of both domestic and foreign markets exceeded 30% during the year, hitting new highs at the end of the year. The Shanghai copper price exceeded 98,000 yuan/ton, and the London copper price exceeded $12,000/ton [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Global Economy - In 2025, the global economy showed strong resilience, with the actual growth rate basically in line with the initial forecast of 2.7%. The main disturbances were the US tariff policy, potential risks of AI expansion, and increasing fiscal pressure. In 2026, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow to 3.1%, and the inflation level will slow to 3.7%. The average growth of world trade volume from 2025 - 2026 will be 2.9%, still far lower than the 3.5% in 2024 [11]. 2.2 US Economy - In 2025, the US economic growth slowed down, with the annual growth rate dropping by 0.8 percentage points. The macro - economic situation was complex, with stubborn inflation, a cooling job market, and cautious policy - making. The US dollar index was expected to remain weak in 2026. In 2025, US inflation rebounded, and the core inflation rate was always above 2%. The job market changed from stable to weak, mainly due to immigration policies, government layoffs, and AI substitution [14]. - In 2026, AI - related investment and consumption will be the core driving forces for economic growth, but there are certain structural risks [15]. 2.3 Chinese Economy - In 2025, China's macro - policy became more proactive. The economy grew by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters, but there was deflation pressure, and the overall consumer willingness and ability needed to be enhanced. In 2026, China will continue its proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. Sino - US relations may enter a relatively stable period, and China's demand will shift to domestic consumption [17][18]. 3. Supply Analysis 3.1 Tightening Copper Ore Supply - In 2025, global copper ore supply was tight. The growth of copper ore output stagnated, and the capacity utilization rate dropped below 80%. The ICSG lowered the 2025 copper ore production growth rate from 2.3% to 1.4%, and it is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026. The supply is affected by insufficient capital investment, declining ore grades, and frequent accidents. In 2026, copper ore supply will depend on existing projects, and any supply - demand imbalance will be reflected in prices [20][24]. 3.2 Transmission of Supply Pressure from Ore to Smelting - The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop significantly from 3.4% in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026. The shortage of copper concentrate has passed on cost pressure to the smelting industry. In 2025, the TC of copper concentrate dropped to below zero, and the long - term processing fee for 2026 was locked at zero. Chinese smelters plan to cut production by at least 10% in 2026, which will deepen the supply shortage [29][30]. 3.3 Substitution Effect of Scrap Copper - Scrap copper has a certain substitution effect on copper concentrate, but it cannot completely replace primary copper due to supply, technology, and capacity limitations. The 770th document in 2025 increased the cost of scrap - copper recycling, suppressing market enthusiasm. In 2026, it is difficult for scrap copper to expand [34][36]. 4. Demand Analysis - China is the largest consumer of refined copper, accounting for nearly 60% globally. The ICSG expects the global refined copper usage to grow by 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, with China's growth rate slowing down to 1% in 2026 [42]. 4.1 Power Industry - Copper demand in the power industry is driven by grid modernization, energy transformation, and new - energy power generation. In 2025, grid investment maintained positive growth, and new - energy power generation had a high growth rate. In 2026, grid investment is expected to remain high, and new - energy power generation will continue to support copper demand. The new - type energy - storage system also has great growth potential [45][46][47]. 4.2 Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the real estate industry's adjustment suppressed copper demand. In 2026, the industry's growth logic is shifting, but it is difficult to make up for the demand gap in the short term [49][50]. 4.3 Home Appliance Industry - In 2025, the home appliance industry's demand showed a trend of low - then - high. Domestic demand was stimulated by policies in the first half of the year but weakened later. Exports were under pressure due to US tariffs and overseas demand contraction. In 2026, domestic sales may not grow without new policies, while overseas production capacity is expected to be released [53][54]. 4.4 Automotive Industry - In 2025, China's automobile sales, especially new - energy vehicle sales, increased significantly. Domestic sales were stimulated by the trade - in policy, and exports showed a diversified pattern. In 2026, the automobile market growth will face pressure, with a predicted growth rate of about 2%, and new - energy vehicles will maintain strong momentum [56][60]. 4.5 New Direction - AI Data Centers - In 2025, AI data centers became a key variable in reshaping copper demand. The copper consumption in global data centers is expected to increase from about 500,000 tons in 2025 to 740,000 tons in 2026, with a compound high - growth rate of about 40% in the coming years. However, the demand intensity needs to be verified [61][62]. 5. Inventory Analysis - In 2025, global copper inventory shifted from non - US to US regions due to the expected US tariff policy. COMEX copper inventory increased by over 300%, while LME inventory decreased by 42%. In 2026, the implementation time of the US tariff policy will be a key factor affecting inventory flow and copper prices [66]. 6. Outlook for 2026 - Copper prices are expected to operate at a high level, and the center of gravity may move upward. The upward momentum comes from macro - liquidity and supply - side gaps. However, risks include unexpected policy changes and lower - than - expected downstream consumption growth [68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Although the expected interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 has slightly declined, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Trump's upcoming nomination of a new chairman has raised market concerns about the decline in the Fed's independence. Amidst the global electrification transformation and AI - driven industrial revolution, copper is crucial for data centers, electric vehicles, and power grid infrastructure. Domestically, the central bank will flexibly use reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, implement an expansionary fiscal policy to boost domestic demand, and promote high - quality development through innovation and industrial upgrading. [3][83] - The sudden strike at mines in northern Chile has intensified disturbances in concentrate supply. Global refined copper production capacity may enter a contraction phase, and domestic imports have decreased month - on - month. At the consumption end, traditional industries face weak demand at the end of the year, while emerging industries offer significant growth potential. Non - US inventories overseas are declining, and US copper inventories are rising, accounting for over 50%. [3][83] - In the third quarter, both the Chinese and US economies showed strong resilience. The global AI - driven industrial revolution has created vast demand prospects for metals. The Fed's interest rate cut has increased market risk appetite. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise strongly in January, and attention should be paid to the internal linkages among gold, silver, and copper. [3][83] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 December Copper Market Review - In December 2025, copper prices accelerated upward. LME copper rose from a low of around $11,120 to $12,960, and SHFE copper soared from 87,500 to around 102,500. By December 31, LME copper closed at $10,901.5/ton with a monthly increase of 5.8%, and SHFE copper closed at 87,010 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 4.7%. The weak US dollar and tight fundamentals supported the price increase. [8] - Domestic refined copper terminal consumption faced downward pressure in December. Traditional industries had low - growth consumption, while emerging industries showed good demand. Social inventories rebounded slightly to around 200,000 tons at the end of December, and the spot premium shifted to a deep discount. It is predicted that traditional industries will remain seasonally sluggish in January 2026, while emerging industries will have certain resilience. [10][11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fed's New Chairman Nomination and US Third - Quarter Economic Growth - After the Fed cut interest rates in December as expected, the federal funds rate is now in the 3.5% - 3.75% range. The new dot - plot shows one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively. Trump will announce a new Fed chairman in early January, and the most likely candidate, Kevin Hassett, may support rate cuts. [13][14] - In November, the US CPI was +2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was +2.6% year - on - year. The US GDP in the third quarter grew 4.3% year - on - year after inflation adjustment. However, the government shutdown may affect the fourth - quarter economy. It is expected that the Fed may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. [15] 3.2.2 Lack of Recovery in US Manufacturing and Continued Contraction in Eurozone Manufacturing - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in November shrank to 48.2, below the boom - bust line of 50 for the ninth consecutive month, indicating weak market demand. [16] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in December was 49.2, lower than expected. Germany's manufacturing output contraction was a major drag, and although France's manufacturing PMI rebounded, its service PMI declined. The ECB maintained key interest rates in December, and the eurozone economy is in a weak recovery. [16][17] 3.2.3 Flexible Use of Reserve - Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts and Expansion of "National Subsidies" in 2026 - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. [18] - In 2026, "national subsidies" will cover four categories: car scrapping, car replacement, home appliances and digital products, and smart products. The scope and subsidy intensity have changed compared to 2025. It is expected that the policy will shift from pure commodity subsidies to a dual - drive model including service consumption. [19] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Slow Resumption of Overseas Interrupted Mines and Further Decline in 2026 Long - Term TC Benchmark Price - The 2026 copper concentrate long - term TC/RC benchmark price was set at $0/dry ton and $0/lb, hitting a new low. The global copper concentrate supply growth in 2026 is expected to be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of interrupted mines and postponed new mine projects. [22] - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile may cause losses of up to $160 million. Some mines such as Oyu Tolgoi, QB, and KFM have production increases or expansion plans. [23][24] 3.3.2 Flat Domestic Refined Copper Production in November and Hurdles in Overseas Refined Copper Capacity Release - In November, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1034 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The stable production was due to high profits from by - products and sufficient copper concentrate imports. The 125,000 - ton cathode copper refining project of Sichuan Liangshan Copper will start production in March 2026. [32] - Overseas, some smelters have been shut down or reduced production due to low processing fees. For example, Glencore's PASAR and Altonorte smelters have stopped production. Some projects' production increases are postponed, and overall, overseas refined copper capacity release will slow down. [33] 3.3.3 Widening Year - on - Year Decline in Refined Copper Imports and Month - on - Month Rebound in Scrap Copper Imports - From January to November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 19% year - on - year, and refined copper imports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year. In November, imports dropped significantly due to high US copper tariffs and port congestion. [53] - From January to November, scrap copper imports increased by 3.63% year - on - year. China will expand scrap copper imports from Southeast Asia and strengthen the recycling and utilization of scrap copper. However, policies have increased the tax burden on scrap copper rod enterprises, leading to supply tightening. [55] 3.3.4 Rising COMEX Inventories and Rebound of Domestic Social Inventories from Low Levels - Since December, domestic inventories have rebounded from low levels, and global visible inventories have continued to rise. COMEX copper inventories have exceeded 50% of the global total. The increase in domestic inventories is due to high copper prices suppressing consumption and reduced overseas supply. It is expected that global visible inventories will remain high and volatile in January 2026. [59][60][61] 3.3.5 Weak Demand in Traditional Industries and Large Growth Potential in Emerging Industries - In the power grid, investment growth has slowed, and the demand for copper in January 2026 may be restricted. [64][67] - In the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, the photovoltaic industry is in a critical stage of anti - involution, and wind power growth has marginally rebounded. However, the copper consumption in the wind and solar industries may decline by about 10% this year. [68][70] - The real estate market is still at the bottom, with investment, construction, and sales data showing a downward trend. The demand for copper is expected to remain low in January 2026. [71][72] - The air - conditioning industry is in adjustment. Domestic sales are under pressure in the short term, but the "trade - in" policy in 2026 will promote the industry's upgrade. [73][74] - The new - energy vehicle industry has maintained high - speed growth. Although the subsidy policy will change in 2026, the market demand space is still large, and sales are expected to maintain a high - speed growth in January 2026. [75][76][77] - The data center industry is accelerating due to AI computing power demand. It is expected that the copper consumption in data centers will increase by about 1.05 million tons in 2026. [78][79] 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the Fed is in an easing cycle, and China will implement expansionary policies. Fundamentally, supply disturbances intensify, and consumption shows a differentiation between traditional and emerging industries. It is predicted that copper prices will continue to rise strongly in January 2026, and attention should be paid to the internal linkages among gold, silver, and copper. [83]

Macro Analysis - The focus of Trump's policies is shifting towards stabilizing growth amid the U.S. midterm elections, with reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs and a continuation of global fiscal and monetary expansion trends. The U.S. economy is expected to recover from a slowdown, which will support copper prices [3] - In China, the proactive policy line will continue into the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, contributing to an increase in macroeconomic sentiment that will help copper prices reach new levels [3] Copper Pricing Logic - Global copper demand is transitioning from being driven by incremental consumption in China to a rapid growth expectation for copper needed in AI infrastructure, including data centers, power systems, and energy storage [3] - Historical data indicates that mining gross margins need to remain above 40% to encourage capital expenditure, with a copper price of $12,000 per ton potentially serving as a bottom support level [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper mine supply growth is expected to remain low at around 2% from 2026 to 2028, with refined copper production growth projected to fall below 2% in 2026. Energy storage and AI data centers are anticipated to become strong growth points for copper consumption, alongside global grid upgrades [4] - By 2026, a copper supply shortage of 330,000 tons is expected, increasing to 630,000 tons in 2027, driven by the U.S. siphoning off refined copper [4] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is improving, leading to a substantial supply-demand imbalance. The expected price fluctuation range for copper in 2026 is projected to rise to $10,000 to $15,000 per ton, depending on the recovery of the global economy [4] - The arbitrage opportunity is anticipated to continue, with a strong external market and a weaker domestic market structure [4] Tariff Impact - The imposition of tariffs has led to significant fluctuations in copper prices, with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, resulting in a 31% year-on-year decline in imports in August and a 39% decline in September [14] - The tariffs have caused a substantial drop in copper material imports, which will be compensated by increased domestic processing capacity and operational rates [14][18] U.S. Copper Consumption - U.S. copper consumption is projected to grow by 4% in 2025, driven by AI data center construction and grid upgrades, with an expected increase of 135,000 tons in copper consumption [15] - The anticipated increase in copper consumption from 2025 to 2026 is expected to total 450,000 tons, despite a significant increase in net imports in 2025 [18] Global Copper Supply Challenges - The global copper mine supply is facing disruptions, with a growth rate revised down to 0.5% for 2025 due to various incidents affecting major mines [22][25] - The overall copper supply growth is expected to be limited, with domestic companies contributing most of the incremental supply in 2026 [24] Recycled Copper Dynamics - The supply of recycled copper is expected to remain tight, with a significant portion flowing to the smelting sector to address raw material shortages [31][34] - The implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy in 2024 is anticipated to impact the production rates of recycled copper rods, with a potential decline in operational rates due to increased tax burdens [32][34] Future Consumption Trends - The demand for copper is expected to be driven by AI, energy storage, and grid upgrades, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar experiencing slower growth rates [45][54] - The global demand for copper in energy storage systems is projected to increase significantly, with an expected rise from 270,000 tons in 2025 to 500,000 tons in 2026 [55]

Group 1 - Copper stocks generally rose, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 6.45% to HKD 15.34, Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 4.1% to HKD 44.2, and Minmetals Resources (01208) up 2.98% to HKD 9.32 [1] - On January 6, London copper prices increased, surpassing USD 13,100, reaching a new high [1] - Capstone, a Canadian mining company, announced a strike at its Manto Verde copper-gold mine in Chile starting January 2, which adds supply risk to an already tight market [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts a global copper market shortfall of over 100,000 tons by 2026, despite ongoing expectations regarding U.S. copper tariffs [1] - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper remains at USD 100 per ton, encouraging traders to transport refined copper to the U.S., leading to continued supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [1] - The combination of total shortfall and regional mismatches is driving copper prices to continually refresh historical highs [1]

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2026年1月5日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：假期内地缘冲突加剧，美国空袭委内瑞拉，持续一小时，特朗普称抓获马杜罗及其夫人，今日开盘市场避险情绪加剧，但对于铜价影 响相对有限，大多受产业端影响较大。 ➢ 供给方面：1月2日，加拿大铜矿商Capstone Copper宣布，其智利曼托维德铜金矿场当日开始罢工，期间将逐步缩减运营，预计产量骤降七成。 目前铜冶炼厂无法通过长协订单获得利润，同时现货市场维持弱稳，后续不减产的情况下，硫酸及金等副产品成为主要盈利点。12月SMM中国电 解铜产量环比增加7.5万吨，升幅为6.8%，同比上升7.54%。1-12月累计产量同比增加137.20万吨，增幅为11.38%。前期冶炼厂停车后，本月陆续 复产，同时精废价差合适，废铜原料冶炼产量环比有增长，关注后续冶炼厂副产品的价格能否持续弥补冶炼厂亏损。 ➢ 需求方面：近期下游铜材多进入年终决算时期，铜价连续走高后，采购趋于谨慎，铜箔市场由于 ...