2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：供应减产，价格偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：基本面有韧性 | 12 | | 氧化铝：继续探底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：交投清淡横盘震荡 | 14 | | 钯：横盘整理 | 14 | | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 16 | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：去库边际放缓，上方或承压 | 18 | | 工业硅：偏弱运行 | 20 | | 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：电费成本抬升，偏强震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，偏强震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - On December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. It is expected that the medium - and long - term monetary policy will remain moderately loose [7][8]. - The macro - environment for the black sector is generally positive, but the black market has no conditions for a trending rise. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and coking coal's far - month 05 contract has conditions for a rebound [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank's Monetary Operations - On December 4, the central bank announced that on December 5, it would conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 3 - month (91 - day) term. Since 100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase is due in December, it means an equal - amount roll - over. It is also expected that the central bank will conduct another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation this month, with a high possibility of an increased - amount roll - over. The central bank has basically formed a medium - and long - term capital injection model [8]. Black Sector - **Overall situation**: The fundamentals of the black sector are mediocre, waiting for macro - drivers. The macro environment is generally positive, but steel inventories are high, demand weakens seasonally, and the black industry chain is in a stage of production cut and inventory reduction [10]. - **Iron ore**: The profitability of steel mills has been continuously compressed, and iron ore's rigid demand has decreased. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, but there is demand for winter stockpiling by steel mills, so short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coking coal**: The settlement price of the coking coal 2512 futures contract is 969.5 yuan/ton, at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the spot. The far - month 05 contract has conditions for a rebound [10]. Commodity Futures - **Precious metals**: Gold's expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, and silver has fluctuated downward. The trend intensity of both is 1 [13][16][19]. - **Base metals**: - **Copper**: Spot prices are firm, supporting the price, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][21][23]. - **Zinc**: Supply has been cut, and prices are on the strong side, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][24][26]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][27][28]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][30][32]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are resilient; alumina continues to decline; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities are 1, - 1, and 1 respectively [13][33][35]. - **Platinum and palladium**: Platinum trades thinly and fluctuates sideways; palladium consolidates sideways. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel's fundamentals limit its upward potential and it fluctuates at a low level; stainless steel has high inventories, weak supply and demand, and cost limits its downward potential. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][40][44]. - **Energy and chemical products**: - **Carbonate lithium**: The marginal slowdown of inventory reduction may put pressure on the upper side, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][45][48]. - **Industrial silicon**: It runs weakly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][49][52]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][50][52]. - **Iron ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][53]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][56][59]. - **Silicon iron and manganese silicon**: Silicon iron's electricity cost has risen, and it fluctuates strongly; manganese silicon's ore - end quotation is firm, and it also fluctuates strongly. The trend intensities of both are 1 [13][61][65]. - **Coke and coking coal**: They fluctuate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [13][66][67]. - **Log**: It fluctuates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][68][71]. - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is supported by cost and fluctuates at a high level; PTA fluctuates at a high level unilaterally; MEG's price hits a new low and trends weakly. The trend intensities are 0, 0, and - 1 respectively [13][72][77]. - **Rubber and synthetic rubber**: Rubber fluctuates; synthetic rubber fluctuates downward. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][79][85]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates at a low level, and factory inventories have a slight increase, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][86][94]. - **LLDPE**: The basis has declined, and the supply is still loose, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][96][98]. - **PP**: The medium - term trend still faces pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][99][101]. - **Caustic soda**: The trend still faces pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][103][105]. - **Pulp**: It fluctuates, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][107][109]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][112][114]. - **Methanol**: It runs under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][116][120]. - **Urea**: It gradually enters a fluctuating pattern, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][121][123]. - **Styrene**: It fluctuates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend intensity of - 1 [128]. - **LPG and propylene**: LPG's trend is under pressure; propylene's pattern remains loose. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [130][131][135]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [139][140]. - **Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil**: Fuel oil rebounds slightly and may temporarily get out of the weak situation; low - sulfur fuel oil weakens at night, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market narrows slightly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][142]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and price - increase announcements, it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][144][157]. - **Agricultural products**: - **Short - fiber and bottle - chip**: They fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][158][159]. - **Offset printing paper**: Long positions should be closed at an appropriate time, with a trend intensity of 0 [160][161]. - **Pure benzene**: It fluctuates mainly in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][165][166]. - **Palm oil and soybean oil**: Palm oil is waiting for the inflection point to be confirmed and is traded within a range for the time being; soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and fluctuates mainly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][168][173]. - **Soybean meal and soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal fluctuated; the spot price of soybeans is stable and strong, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][174][176]. - **Corn**: It fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][177][180]. - **Sugar**: It runs weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][181][183]. - **Cotton**: Supply and demand are both strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][185][188]. - **Eggs**: Culling continues, and the spot price fluctuates mainly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][191]. - **Hogs**: An increase in supply is approaching, and the industrial logic returns, with a trend intensity of - 2 [13][193][196]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][198][200].

12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史 新高。 纽约期货市场的COMEX铜价已经从2025年初的每磅4.06美元到现在创纪录的每磅5.4美元，上涨超过30%。而且纽约期货市场还在以每吨超过400美元的溢 价，从伦敦和上海吸纳库存。 中国每年消费全球一半以上的铜。作为广泛应用于电力、机械、新能源等领域的重要工业原材料，铜价为什么会一路狂飙？ 铜作为标准化大宗商品，与金银相似，都是在伦敦、纽约、上海三大交易中心完成期货与现货的交易。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）是全球铜定价的核心，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）是全球铜期货交易最活跃的市场，上海背靠最大的铜消费市场——中国，重 要性在日益增加。 正常情况下，铜的EFP机制（Exchange for Physical，将伦敦现货运到纽约进行期货交割）能保证伦敦铜和纽约铜的价格挂钩，两边的价差仅为数美元至数 十美元。但今年纽约期货市场出现异常，大量资金持续购买交割COMEX铜期货，造成COMEX铜出现"超级溢价"，从伦敦和上海源源不断地抽调库存。 COMEX铜库存已经暴 ...

当你认为A股不行的时候，今天反包了。 有人说，是不是因为债市的缘故，跷跷板效应，导致A股走强？很显然，这属于是缘木求鱼。 30年债今天刷新年内低点。去年债券市场有多香，今年就有多惨。 反过来，国债收益率则在持续走强，不知道还以为我们的经济完成复苏。造成近期债市出现异常波动有三方面的原因： 这就是为什么，今天A股尽管是上涨，成交量依旧减少1219亿，1.56万亿的量能，是没办法维持当下市场的全面行情。 资金涌入哪里呢？科技，还是科技。明天是科创板近2年最大的IPO摩尔线程上市，先恭喜打新中签的，明天红包估计不小。市场先做了一个预热，同时 寒王出小作文，计划26年提高AI芯片产量至3倍以上。凌晨的时候川子传来了机器人方面的利好。 另外，铜价在昨晚刷新历史新高，背后是供应端的紧张。一方面，矿产铜矿品质下降，全球第二大铜矿发生事故，预计减少供应约50~80万吨。叠加美联 储的降息周期，铜价其上涨逻辑非常的硬。 其实，今年以来有色资源类板块，反倒是A股当中涨幅最好的板块。期货端就不用说了。 总之，A股今天缩量反弹，再次说明市场资金参与热情一般，纯粹是众多利好刺激的作用。明年摩尔上市，如果市场不放量，反倒是缩量，本就存量 ...

高盛集团为当前围绕铜前景的乐观讨论注入了一丝谨慎情绪。该行表示，铜价飙升至每吨11,000美元以 上将是短暂的，因为全球仍有充足的供应来满足需求。 包括奥蕾莉亚.沃尔瑟姆在内的分析师在一份报告中写道："近期铜价的大部分上涨是基于对未来市场紧 张的预期，而非当前的基本面。我们预计当前突破11,000美元上方的走势不会持续。" 由于担心在美国加征关税前铜被紧急运往美国导致全球供应紧张，铜价周三在伦敦金属交易所(LME)飙 升至每吨11,540美元的创纪录水平。贸易公司摩科瑞能源集团上周关于供应出现"极端"错位的警告，更 是加剧了市场的这种交易情绪。 混沌天成研究院院长李学智表示："这轮上涨才刚刚开始，我们仍然看涨铜价。"他指出，周三LME仓库 的大量金属提货"加剧了市场对供应紧张的即时担忧"。 尽管如此，铜价长期以来一直是各种大胆预测的对象，而这些预测往往与现实不符。尽管到2026年主要 矿山的一系列停产事件给供应带来了压力，但尽管有绿色技术等明显亮点，全球对铜的需求最近也有所 放缓。 作为铜的关键市场，中国市场的需求在近几个月大幅下滑。高盛表示，预计今年第四季度中国铜消费量 将同比下降近8%。该行预计明年将增长 ...

铜价周三(12月3日)进一步创下了历史新高，因伦敦金属交易所仓库提货订单激增，加剧了市场对美国潜在关税将加剧全球供应紧张的担 忧。 行情数据显示，伦铜期货周三大涨了2.72%，盘中一度最高触及每吨11540美元，超越了周一刚创下的历史峰值。随着铜价进一步飙升， 矿业股也同步走高——智利铜生产商Antofagasta Plc股价周三大涨逾5%，亦创下历史新高。 而最新的LME仓单数据确实反映了上述变化。LME数据显示，周二亚洲仓库铜净注销仓单规模达50,725吨，这使得LME的铜注册仓单数 量降至了7月以来的最低水平105275吨。 伦敦金属交易所仓储网络中的铜材，目前主要来自中国和俄罗斯。而作为全球最大的铜消费区域，亚洲仓库提货活动的骤然升温，也标 志着更多持有仓单的贸易商或下游用户正试图将铜从LME仓库中实际提出，其中很大的一部分可能正运往美国套利。 值得一提的是，周三，LME现货铜相对三个月合约的溢价达到了每吨86美元，为10月中旬以来最高，也表明近期铜市场供应紧张。 道明证券高级大宗商品策略师Dan Ghali表示，"关税威胁在明年上半年对铜市的影响最为确定，这将成为推动价格上涨的极强劲催化剂。 市场微 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数意外创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅 观点分享： 12 月 3 日，最新公布的 ADP 就业数据显示，11 月私营企业减少 3.2 万个工作岗位，为 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加 4 万个岗位。ADP 报告显示，小型企业 成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于 50 人的小型企业合计减少 12 万个岗位，其中 20 至 49 人规 模的企业裁员 7.4 万人。相比之下，50 人以上的大型企业净增 9 万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现 明显分化。美国商务部长卢特尼克将数据疲软归咎政府停摆与驱逐移民，否认关税拖累就 业。这份报告是美联储 12 月 9 日至 10 日会议前获得的最后一份就业数据。期货交易员预计 美联储再次降息 25 个基点的概率接近 90%。 | | | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | ★★★★ | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力。烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯 ...

Group 1: Copper Supply Disruptions - Global copper supply has been disrupted in 2023 due to various factors, including Indonesia's suspension of copper concentrate exports and Freeport's production cuts, leading to a decrease in international copper concentrate supply [1] - The Kamoa copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has reduced its annual output by approximately 150,000 tons due to seismic activity, exacerbating supply tightness [1] - Significant production halts occurred at Chile's El Teniente mine and Freeport's Grasberg mine, with the latter not expected to return to pre-accident production levels until 2027 [1] Group 2: Copper Processing Fees and Production Outlook - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) has entered negative territory and has been declining, remaining around -40 USD/ton since May, indicating potential losses for smelters when TC falls below 20 USD/ton [2] - Global copper production growth is expected to slow significantly in 2026, with a forecasted growth rate of only 0.9%, down from 3.4% in 2025, as the market shifts from surplus to shortage [2] Group 3: China's Copper Demand and Imports - Despite a significant increase in refined copper production in China, the country continues to import large quantities of refined copper, scrap copper, and copper products to meet domestic demand [3] - China's refined copper imports from January to October 2025 were 4.46 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while scrap copper imports increased by 1.99% [3] - China's manufacturing sector is projected to account for 35% of global manufacturing value added by 2025, with copper consumption expected to rise, particularly in the context of increasing overseas demand [3] Group 4: Growth in Energy Storage and New Energy Sectors - The global energy storage system (ESS) market is experiencing robust growth, with a 99% year-on-year increase in battery shipments in the first ten months of 2025 [4] - China's domestic demand for ESS is strong, with exports growing over 140%, positioning the country as a key driver of global ESS market growth [4] - The renewable energy sector, including solar and wind power, is expected to see significant growth, further driving copper demand [4] Group 5: Domestic Market Dynamics - Despite a 14.7% year-on-year decline in real estate investment in China, investments in power generation and grid projects have increased, helping to maintain demand for copper [5] - The production of new energy vehicles in China surged by 28.1% in the first ten months of 2025, indicating strong growth in sectors that consume copper [5] - Overall, global copper production is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with limited growth expected in the following year due to various supply constraints [5] Group 6: Future Supply Gaps and Price Expectations - Countries are preparing to restrict scrap copper exports, which may further tighten domestic copper supply in China [6] - The global copper market is expected to face a supply gap of 150,000 tons in 2026, with UBS projecting a supply shortfall of 230,000 tons in 2025 and 407,000 tons in 2026, indicating a worsening supply-demand imbalance [6] - As a result of these factors, copper prices are anticipated to remain strong in 2026 [6]

Summary of Glencore's 2025 Capital Markets Day Company Overview - **Company**: Glencore (OTCPK:GLCN.F) - **Event**: 2025 Capital Markets Day - **Date**: December 03, 2025 Key Industry and Company Insights Strategic Vision and Business Model - Glencore is positioned as a diversified miner focusing on critical minerals and energy needs, with a strong marketing business [4][5] - The company aims to grow its copper production from approximately 850,000 tonnes to a target of 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, leveraging its world-class copper assets [6][33] - The coal business is maintained to support current energy needs and infrastructure development, emphasizing the importance of high-quality coal for the foreseeable future [7][9] Market Dynamics and Growth Opportunities - The energy transition is expected to require significant investment, estimated at $300 trillion, which will drive demand for critical minerals like copper, cobalt, nickel, and lithium [13][15] - A projected copper supply gap of 27 million tonnes by 2050 highlights the necessity for increased copper production [16] - Glencore is confident in its ability to sanction new copper projects due to improving market fundamentals and pricing trends since mid-2024 [19][25] Operational Changes and Efficiency - The company has undergone structural changes to enhance accountability and operational efficiency, including the sale of 35 assets since 2021, generating approximately $6.5 billion [22][24] - A $1 billion cost-saving initiative is underway, with over $500 million already implemented [24] - The focus on operational excellence and risk mitigation is emphasized to ensure reliable delivery of production targets [20][26] Production Outlook - Glencore anticipates a return to a million tonnes of annual copper production by the end of 2026, with a gradual increase thereafter [28][52] - The company plans to restart the Alumbrera project in Argentina, which is expected to contribute significantly to copper production [28] - The Antapaccay district in Peru is identified as a key growth area, with plans for low-grade stockpile leaching to extend production through 2045 [29] Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Over the past five years, Glencore has returned more than $25 billion to shareholders, demonstrating a commitment to long-term value creation [12] - The marketing business is highlighted as a high return on equity (ROE) segment, supporting the overall financial health of the company [10] Additional Important Insights - The company acknowledges past criticisms regarding production delivery and emphasizes the changes made to address these concerns [11][12] - Glencore's diversified geographical presence across key mining regions (Peru, Chile, Argentina, DRC) provides risk mitigation and enhances project returns [25][26] - The focus on safety and operational discipline is underscored, with improvements in safety performance metrics compared to industry averages [49][50] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed during Glencore's 2025 Capital Markets Day, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market opportunities, operational efficiencies, and commitment to shareholder value.

伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库的铜订单量激增，叠加市场对美国潜在关祱或引发全球铜供应紧缩的担 忧，铜价已攀升至历史新高。 伦敦金属交易所数据显示，亚洲地区仓库的铜订单量大幅增长。此后，该交易所铜价一度上涨 2.6%， 突破每吨 1.14 万美元，超过本周一创下的峰值。矿业股同步走高，智利铜生产商安托法加斯塔公司 （Antofagasta Plc）股价涨幅超 5%，创下历史新高。 责任编辑：郭明煜 伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库的铜订单量激增，叠加市场对美国潜在关祱或引发全球铜供应紧缩的担 忧，铜价已攀升至历史新高。 伦敦金属交易所数据显示，亚洲地区仓库的铜订单量大幅增长。此后，该交易所铜价一度上涨 2.6%， 突破每吨 1.14 万美元，超过本周一创下的峰值。矿业股同步走高，智利铜生产商安托法加斯塔公司 （Antofagasta Plc）股价涨幅超 5%，创下历史新高。 作为工业领域的 "风向标金属"，铜价近几周持续走高。越来越多的交易员和分析师警告，由于市场预 期关祱出台，大量铜正被运往美国，全球铜库存可能很快降至极低水平。 今年以来，伦敦金属交易所的铜价基准已上涨超 30%，而美国铜期货涨幅更高 —— 投资者 ...