1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the decline in the US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, the increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, trade negotiation deadlocks, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [3]. - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short - term, but there are potential risks in the medium - term, as the current rise lacks significant support from increased positions and supply - side optimization [14]. - Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short - term due to positive macro factors and low inventory, while alumina is likely to be strong due to a significant drop in warehouse receipts and macro policies [29][30]. - Zinc is in a high - level range, with supply gradually shifting from tight to surplus and demand remaining weak during the traditional off - season, but the Yajiang Dam project may bring some demand growth [58]. - Nickel's recent strong performance is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with the fundamental situation remaining weak, including oversupply in stainless steel and weak downstream demand for nickel salts [73]. - Tin prices are under upward pressure in the short - term as the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand persist [88]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, with active spot market transactions and improved cost support [101]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were affected by coal - related cost increases and macro sentiment, and the focus is on polysilicon warehouse receipts in the future [112]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The decline in the US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index to - 20 and the 57% probability of a Fed rate cut in September weaken the US dollar and boost gold. The approaching deadline of the Trump administration's tariff policy and trade negotiation deadlocks increase risk - aversion demand. Global central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provide long - term support, and geopolitical risks strengthen gold's safe - haven status [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily view is provided, but multiple charts show price trends, spreads, and inventory data [4][6][9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trend**: The current price of Shanghai copper futures shows a slight decline, while LME copper has a small increase. In the short - term, copper may be slightly stronger, but there are potential medium - term risks [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The rise in the entire non - ferrous sector is likely due to demand - side factors rather than the US dollar index, gold, or supply - side issues. The Yajiang Hydropower Station project may have a significant impact on copper demand [14]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro factors such as strong US consumer confidence and the upcoming ten - key - industry stability - growth plan boost sentiment. Low inventory supports prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be a high - level range [29]. - **Alumina**: The current operating capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot market is tight. Warehouse receipts have dropped significantly, increasing the risk of a soft squeeze on funds. Short - term sentiment is strong [30]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High scrap aluminum prices support costs, but demand is in the off - season and weak, suppressing the upside [30]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price and Trend**: Zinc is in a high - level range, with the Shanghai zinc contract showing small fluctuations and the LME zinc price rising slightly [59]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, while demand is weak during the traditional off - season. The Yajiang Dam project may bring some demand growth [58]. 3.5 Nickel - **Price and Trend**: The recent strength of Shanghai nickel is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with the fundamental situation remaining weak [73]. - **Fundamentals**: Nickel ore inventory is rising due to seasonal arrivals from the Philippines, and supply is expected to be loose while demand narrows. Nickel iron prices are stabilizing, and stainless steel demand is weak, with nickel salts maintaining a production - based - on - sales model [73]. 3.6 Tin - **Price and Trend**: Tin prices have risen due to the "anti - involution" impact on the non - ferrous sector, but the short - term upward pressure is greater than the support [88]. - **Fundamentals**: With the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the situation remains unchanged [88]. 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trend**: The futures price shows some fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 69,380 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan from the previous day [102]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot market is active, and cost support is strengthened. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [101]. 3.8 Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal - related cost increases and macro sentiment have led to price increases. Attention should be paid to polysilicon warehouse receipts in the future [112]. - **Polysilicon**: No specific view is provided, but price data and trends are presented [121].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Pay attention to domestic anti-involution policies and overseas equivalent tariff policy expectations, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - For alumina, short-term prices are expected to remain strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but beware of policy changes in Guinea and the risk of a short squeeze due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Mid-term, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For aluminum, short-term prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and changes in imports. [6] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Long-term supply is expected to be loose, but terminal consumption still has some resilience in the short term. [9] Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations. [12] Tin - With the gradual resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, there is an expectation of supply-side repair. However, due to the current positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, consider shorting on rallies. [14] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy trends and the asset conditions of steel mills. [18] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong within a range, with the main contract reference range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton. However, the mid-term upward risk is higher than the downward risk, and pay attention to upstream actions. [21] Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.14% to 79,555 yuan/ton. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened by 53.15% to 1,479 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 1.1349 million tons, while imports increased by 18.74% to 300,500 tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.92% to 20,890 yuan/ton. The import loss of aluminum was 1,427 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 3.609 million tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy prices in different regions increased by 0.50% - 0.99%. [5] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 615,000 tons, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 255,000 tons. [6] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.24% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The import loss of zinc was 1,706 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 36,100 tons. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.11% to 122,850 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was -206 dollars/ton. [12] Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. [12] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.64% to 267,200 yuan/ton. The import loss of tin was 16,228.79 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. [14] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.78% - 1.18%. 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price increased by 0.17% to 902 yuan/nickel point. [18] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 mills) decreased by 3.83% to 1.7133 million tons. [18] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.03% to 68,000 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened by 3.13% to 1,650 yuan/ton. [21] Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,878 tons. [21]

Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo highlighted China's commitment to deepening cooperation in global supply chains amidst the restructuring of global industrial chains [1] - The "Global Supply Chain Promotion Report" presented at the expo emphasized that enhancing global supply chain resilience relies on the synergy of development environment, connectivity, and innovation capabilities [1] - The report introduced a new paradigm for supply chain management, suggesting that resilience is achieved through dynamic balance across the entire supply chain rather than strengthening individual segments [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Resilience - Supply chain vulnerabilities often stem from price fluctuations and supply disruptions, with the futures market emerging as a key tool for risk management [1] - Futures markets provide hedging and basis trading models that help companies build risk management systems to cope with price volatility, thereby enhancing supply chain resilience and promoting international cooperation [2] Group 2: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of lumber futures in November 2024 is expected to provide a fair and authoritative price benchmark for trade and processing enterprises, improving pricing transparency and standardization across the industry [2] - The plastic industry has seen significant changes, with domestic companies increasingly participating in international supply chains, and plastic futures becoming an important pricing benchmark for domestic spot trading [3] - The comprehensive layout of futures for crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy products provides a buffer against price fluctuations, while the launch of carbon lithium futures supports the development of the new energy industry [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - As the international influence of China's futures market grows, domestic companies can leverage price signals from the futures market to secure better conditions in international trade, enhancing competitiveness and promoting deeper integration of global supply chains [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and ongoing global geo - economic risks [3]. - Copper prices may continue to be strong in the coming week, influenced by positive US retail data, tariff expectations, and favorable tariff policies between the US, Indonesia, and Japan [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, supported by positive macro factors and low inventories [30]. - Alumina is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, driven by a significant decline in warrants and macro policies [31]. - Zinc prices will be mainly influenced by macro data and market sentiment in the short term, with supply - side disruptions also being a point of concern [60]. - The nickel industry chain may face some disturbances. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Tin prices will likely continue to fluctuate, with the view that the upward pressure is greater than the downward support in the short term [91]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate will be strong in the market, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the long term [106]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while the polysilicon market needs to be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fundamentals are dominated by Fed policy expectations. Political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and global geo - economic risks support the upward trend of gold prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, but various price - related data such as SHFE and SGX silver futures and spot price differences are presented [6]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17 but were boosted by positive US retail data and tariff expectations. They are expected to be slightly stronger in the coming week [14]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory changes [15][19][23]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro data is positive, and low inventories support prices. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [30]. - **Alumina**: The current production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is tight. Warrants have decreased significantly, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is supported by high scrap - aluminum prices, but demand is weak in the off - season [31]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term prices are mainly affected by macro data and market sentiment [60]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on zinc futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [61][66][69]. Nickel - **Industry Chain Situation**: The nickel industry chain is affected by factors such as export restrictions, tariffs, and rainfall in the Philippines. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories [74][76]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. In the short term, the upward pressure is greater than the downward support due to the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand [91]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [92][96][99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the market is strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long term, the operating rate is expected to increase as prices rise [106]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on lithium carbonate futures prices, spreads, and inventory changes [107][113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: With positive macro - sentiment, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [115]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have led to market speculation. Attention should be paid to the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on industrial silicon spot and futures prices, as well as prices of related products in the silicon industry chain [116][119].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper by the U.S., which is expected to take effect in late July or early August. This has led to a significant increase in U.S. copper prices while London and Shanghai copper prices have declined [5][9]. - The report anticipates that global copper inventory transfers will conclude, providing some support for copper prices despite the short-term pressure from tariffs. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate between 77,000 and 79,000 CNY per ton in the near term [5]. - The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels, with aluminum prices experiencing high volatility. The report notes a slight increase in alumina prices and a decrease in aluminum production margins [5][26]. - Lithium prices are rebounding from the bottom, driven by a "reverse involution" trend, with expectations for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][78]. - Cobalt prices may rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [5][88]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims, and the announcement of copper tariffs by the U.S. government [9]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices fell by 2.43%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.63%. U.S. copper prices increased by 10.30%. Inventory levels showed a mixed trend, with London copper inventory rising by 14.12% and Shanghai copper inventory declining by 3.70% [26]. 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.08%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.36%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum increased, while production margins decreased [26][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices decreased, while zinc prices saw a slight increase. Inventory levels for lead and zinc showed mixed trends, with lead inventory declining and zinc inventory increasing [49]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices fell, and nickel prices also experienced a decline. Inventory levels for both metals showed a downward trend [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices, including lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene, saw increases, while hydroxide prices slightly decreased. The report notes ongoing challenges in production margins for lithium [78]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but the extended export ban from the DRC may create opportunities for price rebounds in the future [88].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), which saw a price increase of 0.51% on July 10, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Northern Rare Earth and China Aluminum [1][3] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports aims to shift copper production back to the U.S., which is expected to impact global copper prices and supply dynamics significantly [3] - Northern Rare Earth is projected to achieve a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [4] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal industry is anticipated to experience a turning point in supply and demand dynamics, driven by increasing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and consumer electronics [4] - The allocation of weights in the non-ferrous metal leader ETF includes copper (26.1%), gold (16.3%), aluminum (15.8%), rare earths (8.5%), and lithium (7.7%), which helps in diversifying investment risks [6] - The current valuation of the non-ferrous metal index is relatively low, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.24, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - Trump administration extended the tariff suspension period to August 1 but added tariffs on multiple countries. The gold - buying trend of global central banks remains unchanged, and China has increased its gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the second half of the year [3] Data Summary - SHFE gold and silver futures and COMEX gold price charts are presented, showing price trends from 2024 - 2025 [4] - Graphs of the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and between gold and the US dollar index are provided [8][9] - Charts of gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories are shown [12][13][14] Group 3: Copper Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks and put pressure on copper prices. The market is adjusting its demand expectations, and the strengthening US dollar index suppresses the non - ferrous metals sector [15] Data Summary - Copper futures prices:沪铜主力 at 78400 yuan/ton, down 1.53%;伦铜3M at 9665 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [16] - Copper spot prices: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 79190 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate TC, and scrap - refined copper price difference data are provided [24][27] - Copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data show changes [28][29] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports prices in the short term. However, long - term prospects are bearish. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, but short - term prices may be strong due to news and squeeze - out risks. Cast aluminum alloy is restricted by high costs and weak demand [31][32] Data Summary - Aluminum and alumina futures prices:沪铝主力 at 20515 yuan/ton, down 0.05%;氧化铝主力 at 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [33][35] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and basis data are presented [39][44][46] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data show changes [53] Group 5: Zinc Core View - Zinc supply is gradually becoming looser, but inventory accumulation is slow and remains at a low level. Demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [60] Data Summary - Zinc futures prices:沪锌主力 at 22120 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [61] - Zinc spot prices: SMM 0 zinc average price at 22040 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [66] - Zinc inventory data show changes, with沪锌仓单 increasing and伦锌库存 decreasing [69] Group 6: Nickel Core View - Nickel ore prices are relatively stable, nickel iron prices are falling, stainless steel production cuts are less than expected, and anti - dumping taxes affect the market. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - to - order model. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to macro trends [73] Data Summary - Nickel futures prices:沪镍主连 at 119140 yuan/ton, down 1% [74] - Nickel - related price and inventory data, including nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and stainless steel, are presented [80][82][89] Group 7: Tin Core View - Trump's new tariff policy may exacerbate US inflation risks. Tin's supply - demand fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on tin prices [91] Data Summary - Tin futures prices:沪锡主力 at 262890 yuan/ton, down 0.98% [92] - Tin spot prices and inventory data are provided [96][99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The long - term supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the over - supply pressure persists [105] Data Summary - Lithium carbonate futures prices:碳酸锂期货主力 at 64400 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan from the previous day [106] - Lithium spot prices, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, show changes [111] - Lithium carbonate inventory data show changes [114] Group 9: Silicon Core View - There is significant capital interference in the silicon industry, and the core contradiction is "strong expectation, weak reality." The rise in polysilicon prices drives industrial silicon prices, but the market deviates from fundamentals [116] Data Summary - Industrial silicon spot prices:华东553 at 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged [117] - Industrial silicon futures prices:工业硅主力 at 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [119] - Polysilicon, silicon wafer, and other product prices and production, inventory data are presented [128][134][140]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the surge in the leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876), which has seen a price increase of over 1.5% today after a two-day pause [1] - Key stocks within the ETF include Innovation New Materials, which rose over 5%, and other companies like Yongxing Materials, Huayou Cobalt, and Tianqi Lithium, which all saw gains exceeding 4% [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring trends in gold, rare earths, and lithium, with significant developments in each sector [3] Group 2 - In the gold sector, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, marking a $32.2 billion increase and the first time surpassing $33 trillion since September 2024 [3] - The rare earth market has seen a price increase for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, now priced at 452,000, indicating the start of a price rise in the domestic market [3] - In lithium, advancements in solid-state battery technology are noted, with Anhui Anwa New Energy Technology Co. announcing the successful launch of its first GWh-level solid-state battery production line [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Guotou Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in gold, copper, and rare earths, predicting that gold prices may reach new highs due to weakening US dollar credit and expectations of interest rate cuts [4] - The copper market is expected to see a price increase due to constrained supply and resilient long-term demand [4] - Rare earth prices are anticipated to rise as exports gradually open up and demand continues to grow [4] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its associated funds track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with significant weightings in copper (26.1%), gold (16.3%), aluminum (15.8%), rare earths (8.5%), and lithium (7.7%), providing a diversified investment option [6] - The current price-to-book ratio of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index is 2.24, which is below the historical median of 2.52, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].