Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points but still indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first time since March that it exceeded the critical point, while the factory price index was at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points [2] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant rebounds in their purchasing and factory price indices, indicating improved market prices [2] Business Activity by Enterprise Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, while small enterprises saw a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather, reflected in a business activity index of 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [4] - Sectors related to travel and consumption, such as railway and air transport, maintained high business activity indices above 60%, indicating robust growth [4] Future Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, the overall economic foundation remains solid, with large enterprises continuing to play a stabilizing role [3] - The manufacturing sector's production activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating optimism for future performance [3] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintain stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, suggesting continued growth in investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [4]

Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]

7 月份，制造业 PMI 为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。非制造业商务活动 指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍高于临界点。铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等 行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间。制造业和非制造业从业人员指数比上月均略有上升， 提示企业用工景气度略有回升。 制造业PMI指数中主要原材料购进价格、出厂价格指数快速走高。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为， 主要原因是近期反内卷牵动市场预期。 7月31日，国家统计局公布7月中国采购经理指数（PMI）运行情况。 7月，制造业PMI指数中两个价格指数快速走高。主要原材料购进价格指数为51.5%，较上月上升3.1个 百分点，重回景气区间。出厂价格指数为48.3%，虽然仍处收缩区间，但较前值回升2.1个百分点。 王青认为，两个价格指数快速走高的主要原因是近期反内卷牵动市场预期，国内主导的煤炭、钢铁等大 宗商品价格快速上冲。另外，受此影响，7月高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气 度有所改善。 杨畅分析，从业人员指数为48.0%（前值47.9%），较上月回升0.1个百分点，仍在景 ...

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, indicating a weak recovery and potential peak in economic growth momentum[1] - The new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering a contraction zone, suggesting tightening market demand[13] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, still indicating overall expansion in production activities[27] Sector Performance - The production index for July is at 50.5%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points, but remains in the expansion zone for three consecutive months[3] - Equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.6%, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in these sectors[1] - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI is at 48.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, showing mixed performance across sectors[1] External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting cautious attitudes among foreign trade enterprises due to uncertainties in tariffs[16] - Port cargo throughput in July increased by 10.9% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in actual export volumes despite potential sustainability issues[17] Price Trends - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March, indicating improved market price levels[18] - The factory price index is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight recovery in manufacturing prices[18]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has boosted prices, but supply and demand performance is counterintuitive [2][7][67] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, exceeding the average decline since 2017 [2][67] - The increase in commodity prices is reflected in the raw material purchase price index (+3.1 percentage points to 51.5%) and the factory price index (+2.1 percentage points to 48.3%) [2][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has marginally declined, with production and new order indices both decreasing [4][70] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while the new order index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4% [4][70] - The new export order index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in market demand [4][70][35] Key Industries - High-energy-consuming industries are showing production strength despite price increases, with the steel industry PMI rising by 4.6 percentage points to return to the expansion zone [3][18][69] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries saw PMIs decline by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points to 50.3% and 49.5%, respectively [3][18][69] - Investment demand weakened significantly, contrasting with the strong production performance in high-energy-consuming sectors [21][69] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to a significant drop in the construction PMI [42][70] - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, with the new order index dropping sharply by 2.2 percentage points to 42.7% [5][58][70] - The service sector PMI slightly declined, with the new order index remaining weak at 46.3% [5][46][70] Future Outlook - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for further implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on the effects in downstream sectors and marginal changes in domestic demand [27][69] - The current situation indicates that the "anti-involution" policy in the upper reaches still requires further advancement, while high-energy-consuming industries are undergoing significant transformations [27][69]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%[6][28] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is greater than the average drop of 0.1 percentage points since 2017[7][28] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March[7][18] Group 2: Sector Performance - The production index in July remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, despite a 0.5 percentage point decline[2][13] - The new orders index fell into the contraction zone, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%[2][14] - High-energy-consuming industries, particularly the steel sector, saw a PMI increase of 4.6 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone at 48%[18][21] Group 3: Investment and Demand Trends - Investment demand weakened significantly in July, contrasting with the strong performance of high-energy-consuming industries[21] - The construction PMI dropped by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, with new orders falling sharply to 42.7%[21][42] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 51.6%[21] Group 4: Future Outlook - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for further implementation of "anti-involution" policies, particularly focusing on mid- and downstream sectors[23] - The report suggests that the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in stimulating domestic demand will be crucial for future manufacturing performance[23]

根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025年7月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比6月下降0.4个 百分点；7月非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%，比6月下降0.4个百分点，其中，建筑业商务活动指数为 50.6%，比6月下降2.2个百分点，服务业PMI指数为50.0%，比6月下降0.1个百分点；7月综合PMI产出指 数为50.2%，比6月下降0.5个百分点。 要点解读如下 7月制造业PMI指数比上月下降0.4个百分点，基本符合市场预期。 主要原因是当月反映市场需求的新订单指数环比回落0.8个百分点至49.4%，再度进入收缩区间。我们分 析，背后可能有两个原因： 其他方面，近期"反内卷"牵动市场预期，国内主导的煤炭、钢铁等大宗商品价格快速上冲。这是当月制 造业PMI指数中两个价格指数快速走高的主要原因。我们预计，7月PPI会环比转正，同比降幅会收窄 至-3.0%左右。不过，当前工业品价格低迷主要是受消费需求不振和房地产投资下滑拖累，"反内卷"对 工业品价格及整体物价的推升作用有待进一步观察。另外值得注意的是，7月中型企业PMI指数继续回 升，而大型、小型企业PMI指数都出现0.9个百分点的回落，其中大型企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][4]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, with production index at 50.5% and new orders index at 49.4%, both showing declines from the previous month [1][4]. - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.7%, indicating a continued reduction in major raw material stocks, while the employment index has slightly increased to 48% [4][5]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, suggesting that the delivery times for raw materials are improving [4]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication electronics are showing active production and new orders, while sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products are underperforming [5][6]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors have PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion [6][7]. Economic Outlook - There is potential for demand recovery, with expectations that economic stabilization policies may be implemented to boost PMI [5][6]. - The price index for major raw materials has risen, with the purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [6][7]. Inventory and Business Confidence - The finished goods inventory index has decreased to 47.4%, reflecting cautious inventory adjustments by enterprises [7]. - Business confidence is improving, with the production and business activity expectation index rising to 52.6%, indicating a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers [7].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June[1] - The new orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[2] - The production index was at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, still in the expansion zone but affected by weak demand[2] Group 2: External and Internal Demand Factors - Weak external demand was reflected in the new export orders index, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points[2] - Domestic consumption growth has slowed, influenced by the real estate market adjustments and reduced effectiveness of previous growth-stimulating policies[2] - The service sector PMI was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, with tourism-related sectors performing well but overall service sector affected by real estate cooling[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall economic pressure is increasing, with manufacturing PMI indicating a downturn after two months of recovery[5] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year[5] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and counteract external demand slowdown[5]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3% in July, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remained above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1][3][6]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, attributed to seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [3][4]. - The production index and new orders index were at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities but a slowdown in market demand [4]. - The manufacturing business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [4]. - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained PMIs above the critical point at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, while the consumer goods sector saw a decline to 49.5% [4]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical threshold [6]. - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50%, with significant growth in transportation and entertainment sectors due to summer holiday effects [7]. - The construction sector's business activity index decreased to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding drop in the business activity expectation index to 51.6% [8]. Market Outlook - The overall market expectations in the service sector improved, with a business activity expectation index of 56.6%, indicating optimism among service providers [7]. - Experts suggest that increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure could help boost order volumes and stabilize economic growth in the latter half of the year [4][8].